Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
Stock DataTarget price (Rp) Rp1,355
Prior TP (Rp) Rp1,355
Shareprice (Rp) Rp820
Upside/downside (%) +65.2
Sharesoutstanding (m) 15,425
Marketcap. (US$ m) 832
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus 2018 2019 PT Indo Premier Sekuritas [email protected] +62 21 5793 1168
Strong 3Q18 result but still in-line
Flat 9M18 earnings (+2% yoy), in-line with expectation.
Resilient marketing sales achievement, 67% of FY18F target.
Limited risk due to JO and JV launching.
Maintain Buy with TP of Rp1,355 (unchanged).
Expect better margin in FY18F.
CTRA reported flat 9M18 earnings of Rp580bn
(+2% yoy), in-line with expectation, forming 53%/55% of our/consensus’ FY18
estimate. In 9M18, CTRA recorded better gross and operating margin of 48.8%
and 27.4% (9M17: 47.9% and 26.6%), respectively due to slower growth in
COGS (+5.9% yoy) and Opex (+0.6% yoy). However, net margin were slightly
decreased to to 12.4% in 9M18 (9M17: 13%) due to increase interest expense of
Rp534bn (+41% yoy). In quarterly basis, CTRA booked strong 3Q18 earnings of
Rp404bn (+692% qoq, 78% yoy), forming 37% of consensus FY18F estimate. In
addition, we expect CTRA margins to improve in FY18F, given recognition of
higher margin project in 4Q18 such as CitraLand Surabaya.
Strong 9M18 marketing sales.
CTRA reported marketing sales of Rp5.1tn in
9M18 (+2% yoy), in-line with company’s target, forming 67% of company’s FY18
guidance of Rp7.7tn. In the remaining 2018, CTRA plans 5 products launching 1)
Newton 2 Apartment, 2) Second Phase of CitraLand Gama City Medan, 3) New
District in CitraRaya Tangerang 4) Second Residential cluster in Citra Maja. Given
numerous launching in the 4Q18, we believe company’s FY18 marketing sales
target of Rp7.7tn is achievable.
New township project with Cendana family.
Other than its own projects,
CTRA will launch a new township in Sentul, with total area of 1,000ha. The
development will be integrated with International Sentul Circuit and Palm Hill Golf
Course, which will be developed through a partnership with the land owner,
Cendana family. In the first phase CTRA will launch 400 landed house with ticket
price of Rp700mn-Rp1bnm which expected to contribute Rp200-300bn of
marketing sales. We like CTRA’s aggressive strategy to launch new projects
through JV and JO with land owners. We believe the partnership will limit CTRA’s
risk if the projects take up rate is not successful.
Maintain Buy with TP of Rp1,355 (unchanged).
CTRA is one of our top picks
in residential property sector given its aggressive launching through JV and JO
and its diverse portfolio on 33 locations across Indonesia. Given in-line 9M18
earnings and marketing sales, we maintain Buy on CTRA with unchanged TP of
Rp1,355. CTRA currently trades at 78% discount to our estimate RNAV or FY18F
P/B of 0.8x providing attractive valuations for the counter.
Ciputra Development
(
CTRA IJ
)
01 November 2018
Source: CTRA, IndoPremier Share Price Closing as of : 31-October-2018
2
Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
Fig. 1: Revenue by segment Fig. 2: 9M18 revenue by segment
Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier
Fig. 3: Marketing sales trend Fig. 4: 9M18 marketing sales achievement
Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier
Fig. 5: 9M18 presales breakdown by unit price Fig. 6: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Source: Company, IndoPremier Source: Company, IndoPremier
-2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
Recurring income Property sales
(Rp bn)
Residential and Shop Houses
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
(Rp bn)
Pre sales Achievement to full year
(Rp bn)
*Includes Rp575 block sales of Newton 1 serviced apartment to Diener Syz
2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F
3
Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
Fig.7: 9M18 result
(Rp bn) 9M18 9M17 YoY 3Q18 2Q18 QoQ % of Ours % of Consensus
Revenue 4,691 4,348 7.9% 1,886 1,447 30.3% 60% 62%
Gross profit 2,289 2,081 10.0% 964 697 38.3% 60% 64%
Operating profit 1,169 967 20.9% 623 244 155.5% 56% 60%
Net profit 580 566 2.4% 404 51 692.2% 53% 55%
Gross margin 48.8% 47.9% 51.1% 48.1%
Operating margin 24.9% 22.2% 33.1% 16.9%
Net margin 12.4% 13.0% 21.4% 3.5%
4
Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
Income Statement
Net Revenue 6,739 6,443 7,781 8,025 8,838
Cost of Sales (3,450) (3,423) (3,972) (4,088) (4,562)
Gross Profit 3,290 3,019 3,809 3,937 4,276
SG&A Expenses (1,484) (1,461) (1,739) (1,798) (1,986)
Operating Profit 1,806 1,559 2,070 2,139 2,290
Net Interest (294) (327) (503) (517) (559)
Forex Gain (Loss) 0 0 0 0 0
Others-Net 44 111 67 88 102
Pre-Tax Income 1,555 1,343 1,634 1,710 1,832
Income Tax (385) (324) (381) (406) (448)
Minorities (309) (124) (163) (170) (180)
Net Income 862 894 1,090 1,134 1,204
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent 3,468 3,229 4,790 4,636 5,240
Receivable 1,702 1,797 1,835 2,052 2,270
Inventory 7,945 9,480 10,455 10,945 11,820
Other Current Assets 595 662 768 790 882
Total Current Assets 13,711 15,167 17,847 18,423 20,210
Fixed Assets - Net 12,743 13,756 14,657 15,609 16,460
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0
Non Current Assets 2,103 2,463 2,956 3,547 4,363
Total Assets 29,072 31,706 35,666 37,713 41,123
ST Loans 1,686 1,170 1,413 1,641 1,673
Payable 829 839 0 992 1,110
Other Payables 4,796 5,774 7,024 6,959 7,972
Current Portion of LT Loans 0 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liab. 7,311 7,783 9,400 9,591 10,755
Long Term Loans 4,976 6,388 7,589 8,207 8,935
Other LT Liab. 2,487 2,085 1,828 1,642 1,572
Total Liabilities 14,774 16,255 18,817 19,440 21,263
Equity 4,820 8,247 8,247 8,247 8,247
Retained Earnings 7,824 5,131 6,129 7,152 8,241
Minority Interest 1,654 2,073 2,473 2,873 3,373
Total SHE + Minority Int. 14,298 15,451 16,849 18,272 19,861
Total Liabilities & Equity 29,072 31,706 35,666 37,713 41,123
5
Refer to Important disclosures on the last of this report
Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int) 1,171 1,019 1,253 1,304 1,384
Depr. & Amortization 243 263 335 355 376
Changes in Working Capital (754) (1,640) (286) (633) (811)
Others (132) (1,995) 1,324 940 237
Cash Flow From Operating 527 (2,354) 2,626 1,966 1,186
Capital Expenditure (1,876) (1,636) (1,729) (1,898) (2,043)
Others 275 410 435 399 372
Cash Flow From Investing (1,601) (1,226) (1,295) (1,499) (1,672)
Loans 1,385 896 1,444 846 760
Equity 165 4,247 0 0 0
Dividends (123) (88) (91) (111) (116)
Others (1,259) (1,347) (721) (643) (485)
Cash Flow From Financing 169 3,709 631 91 159
Changes in Cash (905) 129 1,962 558 (327)
Financial Ratios
Gross Margin (%) 48.8 46.9 49.0 49.1 48.4
Operating Margin (%) 26.8 24.2 26.6 26.7 25.9
Pre-Tax Margin (%) 23.1 20.8 21.0 21.3 20.7
Net Margin (%) 12.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 13.6
ROA (%) 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1
ROE (%) 6.3 6.0 6.7 6.5 6.3
ROIC (%) 6.9 5.6 6.4 6.0 5.8
Acct. Receivables TO (days) 49.1 53.7 47.0 49.5 49.1
Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days) 32.9 45.4 38.1 38.9 40.1
Inventory TO (days) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Payable TO (days) 92.2 88.9 82.8 87.2 84.1
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days) 55.3 55.8 67.4 87.2 84.1
Debt to Equity (%) 46.6 48.9 53.4 53.9 53.4
Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Net Gearing (%) 22.3 28.0 25.0 28.5 27.0
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
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