TAP CHJ CONG THtftfNG
TAC DQNG CUA PHAT TRIEN NGAN HANG, TANG TRlJOlNG KINH TE DEN DQ M d
THl/dNG MAI VA LAM PHAT TAI VIET NAM
• IRAN HUY HOANG - HUYNH QUANG LINH - N G U Y I N THj HONG ANH
TOM TAT:
Bai viet sff dung ni6 hinh ARDL de kiem dinh tac dong phat trien ngan hang, tang tnidng kinh tS', dO mci thUdng mai va lam phdt tai Viet Nam. Di? lieu nghien ciJu dUdc lay tijf Bp di? lieu cua IMF va Tong cue Thong ke Viet Nam tiif quy 1 nam 2000 den quy 4 nam 2018. Ket qud nghien cu'u cho thay, tang tnrdng kinh td' co tdc ddng den lam phdt cd trong ngan han va dai ham d giai doan nay.
Ttf khoa: Phat trien ngan hang, tang tnrdng kinh te', do md thtfdng mai, lam phdt.
1. D^t va'n dd
Tir lau, cdc nghien cii'u thiTc nghiem da cho tha'y, thi trirdng tai chinh la nhan to'chinh thiic day tang tnrdng kinh te manh me. Bdi vi, thong qua thi tnrdng ta i chinh, ngu^n vd'n trong nen kinh te dirdc phan bo mot each hieu qua de dau t\i san xua't. Vai tro cua he tho'ng tai chinh do'i vdi tang tnrdng kinh te' da thu hut sir quan tam va chii y ngay cang nhieu tCf cdc vien nghien cu'u va cac nha hoach dinh chinh sdch (Ndikumana 2001) vdi cac quan diem khdc nhau ca ve ly thuye't va thiTc nghiem. Mot trong nhiJng phdt hien lau ddi nhS't ve moi quan he giiJa phdt trien tiii chinh va tang tnrdng kinh te la cua Schumpeter (1911). Ong khang dmh, cac dich vu dirdc cung cap bdi cac trung gian tai chinh rat quan trong do'i vdi doi mdi va phdt trien.
Theo Schumpeter, he tho'ng ngan hang la ye'u to quyet dinh cho tang tnrdng kinh te' vi ngan hang ddng vai tro trong vide phan bo tie't kiem.
khuyen khich d6'i mdi vi tai trd cho cdc khoan dau tiT cd hieu qua. Con theo cac nha kinh te'
thuoc tnrdng phai kinh te' mdi (ly thuye't tSng tru'dng ndi sinh) cho rang, mot he thong tai chinh viJng manh cd the thiic day tang tnrdng kinh te trong dai han, doi mdi cong nghe, nghien cd'u phat tridn thdng qua kenh cung cap lai chinh cho cdc cd nhan va doanh nghiep.
Trong thirc te, cdc nha nghien ciTu nhan dinh, cdc mrdc cd thu nhap tha^p can manh me vk tich ctfc hdn trong viec cai to hd thd'ng tdi chinh cung nhiT viec cd cdc chinh sach kinh te' vT mo tot se giup thiic day he thd'ng tai chinh phat trie'n va idng tnrdng kinh te'. Do dd, dd'i vdi nhiJng mrdc cd nen kinh te'chu yeu diTa trdn ngan hang thi vide cdi to he thd'ng lai chinh cung chinh ia vide cai id', phdt trien he thong ngan hang.
Tai Viet Nam, hoat ddng cua cdc ngan hang thirdng mai tCf lau da dirdc xem la huye't mach, 15 xiidng sd'ng nen kinh td' cua qud'c gia. Day cung chinh la dac diem chung cua cdc nu'dc dang phit trien khi thi tnrdng chiing khoan chi mdi hinh Ih^nh va phat trien nhieu nam gan day.
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Vl v$y, nin kinh td' Viet Nam la mdt nen kinh te'dtfa tren ngan hang vi ngan hang ludn la kdnh cung ling vd'n chfi ye'u cho nin kinh td'. Cting vdi sir phdt trien va dong gdp cua ng§n hang thirdng mai thi nin kinh te nu'dc ta cung da dat diTdc nhffng thanh tiTu trong sud't hdn 20 nam doi mdi nhir day liii va kiem che' lam phat, tang cifdng hdp tac do md thUdng mai, cai thidn mdi irUdng dau tU; huy dpng cac nguon von trong va ngoai nUdc cho phat triin sdn xud't ldnh doanh va hoat ddng dSu tU, xu&'t nhSp khau.
Do vay, nhdm tac gid da su' dung md hinh ARDL d^ nghidn cUu de tai "Tdc dong ciia phat trien ngan hang, tang trUdng kinh te' dd'n do md thUdng mai va ly le lam phat tai Vidt Nam".
2. Cd sd' ly thuyd't va cac bang chii'ng thi^c nghidm
2.1. Cd sd ly thuye't
2.1.1. Ly thuye't tdng trudng Jonh Maynard Keynes
Khiing hodng kinh te' va that nghiep d cdc nUdc trdn thd'gidi dien ra thudng xuyen vao nhi?ng nam 30 cua the'ky XX cho thay, quan dilm ve kha nang tu dieu tiet ciia nen kinh td' trong cdc hpc thuye't kinh te'dUdng thdi, nhuhpc thuye't ban tay vd hinh, chua du sUc thuye't phuc.
Nam 1936, J.Maynard Keynes cong bd' tac pham "Ly thuyd't chung vl viec lam, lai sua't va tien te" da dUa ra mdt hpc thuye't kmh te' mdi.
Ong cho tha'y, nen kinh td' thUdng cdn bang dudi mUc sdn lUdng tiem nang va cd that nghidp nen c^n cd su tdc ddng ciia Chinh phii, lam tang tdng cau se din tdi srf tang trUdng kinh te'. Lan din tien, dng neu bat vai trd ciia Chinh phu can chii dong quan ly de tdng trUdng kinh te' thdng qua cac chinh sdch tai chinh tin dung va lUu thdng tien te. Ung hd hoc thuye't nay, Chick (1986), Chick vd Dow (1988), Moore (1988) trong cac nghidn cUu cua minh ciing da nhdn dinh, mdt he thd'ng tai chinh phat trien td'i thieu phai tao dUdc mot he thd'ng tin dung de' thiic day tang trUdng kinh td'.
2.1.2. Mo hinh tang trudng ngi sinh cua Lucas va Romer
Md hinh Lucas (1988) da giai thich qua trinh tSng trudng kinh td'd goc dd ndi smh, trong dd viec ddm bao lien bd cdng nghe bang cdch tang ngudn vdn con ngUdi. Vd'n con ngUdi va qud trinh dau tU lam tang vd'n con ngUdi cd y nghTa ddc biet quan
trpng, thuc day lang tnfdng kinh te'. Ham san xuat cua Lukas cd dang nhu sau:
Q = Xk\ (LHt)'" vdi 0 < a < 1 Trong dd:
A Id he so cong nghe;
K Id vdn;
H la sdludng von con ngUdi;
LH, Id hieu qud lao dgng do bang mdc vdn con ngUdi.
Dd'n Romer (1990) thi xem nguon gd'c npi sinh cua tang tnfdng la tid'n bp cdng nghd ky thuat. Tien bp cdng nghe, theo dng, khdng chi la sang tao ra sdn pham mdi ma con la vide hoan thien nhii'ng san pham dang sdn xuat. Ngoai ra, md hinh cua Romer khac vdi md hinh Lukas d khai niem vd'n.
Vd'n trong md hinh Romer bao ham vdn tUbdn va dau tu cho nghidn cd'u. Md hinh tang trUdng npi sinh nha'n manh vai tro tich cUc eua khu v\ic tai chinh trong tang trUdng.
2.2. Cdc bdng chdng thUc nghidm Tir lau, do md thUdng mai cd anh hUdng quan trpng de'n tang trudng kinh te' da dUdc tim tha'y trong cac nghien cUu cua Barro va Salai (1995) va Romer (1992) ciing nhUdp md thUdng mai c6 md'i quan he vdi dp sau lai chinh ldn nghien cUu ve md'i quan he gii^a phat trie'n tai chinh va tang trUdng kinh te' (Bojanic, 2012; Shan va cpng sU, 2001;
Blackburn va Hung, 1998). DUa trdn nen tang ly thuyd't tang trUdng ndi sinh, bang nghidn cUu thUc nghiem, Levtne (2000) nha'n manh do sau tai chinh la chia khoa trong vide thiic day tang trUdng kinh te' dai han vi nd tao dilu kidn phan bo hidu qua cac ngudn lUc, tich luy vd'n va cdng nghd su d^i mdi. King va Levine (1993a) dac bidt nha'n manh, hidu qua cua dau tUva tang trUdng kinh te'dlubdt ngudn tU thi trudng tai chinh lanh manh.
Bano va Salai (1999) khdng dmh, sU phat trien tai chinh la ndi sinh. nen chiing la mdt phan eua qud trinh tang trUdng kinh td'. Do dd, dp sau tai chinh cd the dan de'n tang trUdng kinh te thi viec tang trudng kinh td'ciing cd the dSn de'n dp sau tai chinh hdn nUa. TUdng tU. dp sau tai chinh cd the dUdc hen kd't vdi dp md thUdng mai. Bdi vi, dp sau tai chinh cd the' anh hUdng trUc tid'p dd'n tang trudng kinh te' thdng qua kenh phan bd' vd'n tin dung va gidn tiep thdng qua sU tac ddng de'n dp md thUdng mai. Ngoai ra. Boyd va cpng sU (2001) cho tha'y, lam phdt cd the' can thiep vao kha nang phan bd' ngudn lUc ciia nganh tai chinh cd hieu
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TAP CKl CONG THtftfNG
qud. Lam phat lam tang sU khdng chac chan ve kha nang hoan tra trong tUdng lai; dilu nay se lam suy gidm hoat dpng cho vay cua ngan hang de hd ird cho dau tU san xua'l trong nen kinh td'.
Khi lam phat tang eao, ngan hang khd giam sat dUdc hieu qud eiia dU dn dau tU nen se tap trung cho vay ngan han nhieu hdn va han che'cho vay trung, dai han de tranh rui ro. Khi do, cau tnic cho vay ciia cdc ngan hang se tap trung chu yd'u vao tai trd cho vd'n lUu ddng nhilu hdn la cdc khoan dau t u d u d n . NhU vay, lam phdt da gay ra su sai Idch ve nhu clu vd'n thuc sU ciia nen kinh te' ddn de'n anh hudng trUe lid'p dd'n tang IrUdng kinh td'va phdt triin ngan hang. 6 mUc lam phal eao CO the gay gian doan hoat ddng cua thi trUdng lai chinh va dedpa sUon dinh kinh te'vTmd bang each gay ra sU khdng chac chdn ve gia ea, lai sua't va ty gid hdi doai.
Lam phdt cung lam tang chi phi phdng ngira rui ro tai chinh giiJa cde dd'i tac thUdng mai, bdi cac edng cu tai chinh se khd khan hdn trong vide dinh gia. TS't cd dieu nay cd thd' ngan can phat trien ngdn hang thUdng mai vd tang trUdng kinh td'.
Rousseau va Wachlel (2002) bang nghien cUu thUc nghiem ve md'i quan he giiJa lam phdt, phat trien tai chinh va lang trUdng kinh te' da tim thay lam phat tde ddng tidu cUc de'n dp sau tai ehinh ciing nhu tang irudng kinh td'. Trong mdt nghien cUu khac, Rousseau va cdc cpng sU (2009) da nhd'n manh, lam phdt gay ra sU khdng hoan hao ciia thdng tin tren thi trUdng; tU dd dnh hudng dd'n phat triin tai chinh.
3. PhiTdng phap nghien cihi 3.1. Gid thuye't nghien cdu Tic gia se kiem tra hai gid thuyet:
HI: Tdc dpng ciia phal trien ngdn hang thUdng mai va tang trudng kinh td'dd'n dp md thUdng mai.
H2: Tac ddng cua phat trien ngan hang thUdng mai va tang trUdng kinh te de'n ty Id lam phdt.
3.2. Mo hinh nghien ciiu
Md hinh ARDL the' hidn dUdc vie'l dUdi dang sau:
Mdi quan he trong ddi hgn:
OPE = cffl + PI,GROWTH, + ^,2^501 + £„ {l) IFN = «2o + jSj/GROWr//, + ^_,2BSDt + e,, (2) Trong dd: a la hang sd'; e,,, £2,, Cjt la nhidu trang; Pn. Pji. P21. P::- P3I' P3: '^ cdc he so'
GROWTH Tang trUdng kinh te BSD: Phdt trie'n ngan hang thUdng mai
OPE: Dp md thUdng mai INF: Ty Id lam phdt
Mdi quan he trong ngdn hgn (ECM):
AOPE, = ^,0 + zL^t^^P^. + '^fit.&GROWTH,^,
+ J^„ASSD,., -Kr,£0/,_, (3)
ATNF, =;'jo + ^(#ArNF,_, + J^/S,,AGROWr//,_,
f Jd\,ABSD,_, -W;£TM,_, (4)
Trong dd: ECM la md hinh hieu chmh sai so' 4. Kd't qua nghidn cihi
4.1. Kiem dinh tinh ddng
Kiem dinh tinh dUng cua cdc chudi dii lieu bang phUdng phdp Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) va phUdng phap Phillips-Perron (PP). Ke'l qua kilm dinh tinh dUng bang phUdng phdp ADF va PP cho thd'y, chudi dff lieu dirng d chudi gd'c 1(0) va dffng d chudi 1(1), phii hdp de su" dung md hinh ARDL nghidn cUu.
4.2. Kiem dinh dong lien ke't
Trudc khi kiem dinh dong lidn kd't, nghidn ciTu Sli* dung ehi tidu BIC de xae dinh dp tre tdi Uu cho md hinh. (Bang 1)
Ket qua kilm dinh dong Uen kd't cho thd'y, md hinh 1 va 2 khdng cd quan he ddng lidn kd't, nghTa la khdng tdn tai sU tdc dpng cua md'i quan he giffa phat trien ngan hang va tang trUdng kinh Id'den dd md thUdng mai trong dai han. Trong khi dd, md hinh 3 va 4 cd quan he ddng lien kel d mffc y nghTa 1%, nghTa la cd tdn tai sU tdc ddng cua mdi quan hd giffa phat triin ngdn hang va tdng trUdng kinh td' de'n lam phdt trong dai han.
Nhu vay, tdc gid se phan lich tdc dpng mdi quan he giffa phdt trien ngan hang thUdng mai va tang irUdng kinh te'de'n lam phdt trong dai han va ng^n han 6 md hinh 3 va 4. De kiem tra sU phii hdp va dn dinh, tae gia da sOf dung cac kiem dinh Breusch- Godfrey LM, While test va CUSUM, CUSUMSQ.
Kd't qua cho tha'y, md hinh 3 va 4 la phu hdp vi on dinh. (Bang 2, Bang 3)
Ke'l qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, lang trUdng kinh td' cd tdc ddng de'n lam phdt ca trong ngdn han va dai han. Trong ngan han, tang trudng kinh te' tdc dpng ngUdc chieu ddn Iam phdt. Ngoai ra, nghien
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lAlCHJNH-NGAN H A N G - B A O HIEM
Bang 1: Ket q u a kiem dinh d o n g lien ket
Giatn Itiongke
Gia tri giai han cao dudng bao theo Pssaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) va dUdc 1)0 sung bell Narayan (2005)
10%
1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) 1(D) 1(1)
Ket lu$n
M6 hinh 1: Tac dong cua tin dung trang nude cho khu vuc tu nhan duoc cung cap bdi ngan hang (CRB) va tang trudng Isinh te (GROWTH) den do md thuong mai (OPE)
F= 3.009 2.795 3.873 3.348 I 4.529 4.592 Khdng cd quan he dong lien ket Ud hinh 2: Tac dong cOa bien do chenh lech lai suat tien vay, ti^n giti (IRS) va tang trudng kinh te (GROWTH)
den do md thuong mai (OPE)
F= 3.355 2 803 3.870 3.357 4.522 4.61 Khdng co quan he ddng iien ket IV16 hinh 3: Tac dong cua tin dung trong nude eho khu vuc tu nhSn dude eung cap bdi ngan hang (CRB)
va tang trudng kinh te (GROWTH) den ty le lam phat (INF)
F= 13.920 2.803 3.870 3.357 4.522 Cd quan he dong lien ket
lyld hinh 4: Tac ddng cua bien dp ch§nh Idch lai suSt ti§n vay, tien gUi (IRS) va tang trudng kinh t§ (GROWTH) den ty le lam phat (INF)
P F = 13.022 2.803 3.870 3.357 4.522 4.600 5.957*** Cd quan he ddng lien kdt Ghi chii: ***,**, *u:ng vdi cdc miic y nghia ]%. 5% vd 10%
Bdng 2. Ket qua kiem djnh mo hinlt 3
Nguon: Kel qud phdn lich ciia tdc gid Bdng 3. Ket qud kiem djnh mo hinh 4
STT 01 02
Kiem dinh Breuseh-Godfrey LIVl test White test
P_value 0,1678 0,0545
STT 01 02
KiSm dinh Breuseh-Godfrey LIVI test White test
P_value
0.1938 0.0601 Ngudn: Ket qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Hinh 1: Kef qua kiem dmh CUSUM vd CUSUMSQ md hinh 3
Nguon: Ke't qud phdn tich cua tdc gid
Nguon: Ket qud plidn lich ciia tdc gid
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TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Hinh 2: Ket qua kiem djnh CUSUM vd CUSUMSQ mo hinh 4
Nguon: Ke'l qud phdn lich cda tdc gid
effu con tim tha'y dp md IhUdng mai cd tdc ddng dd'n lam phat ca trong ngan han va dai han; cdn Iam phdt chi tdc ddng dd'n dp md thUdng mai trong ngan han.
5. Ke't lugn
Tit ke't qua nghien cffu, tde gia de xua't mpt so' ham y chinh sdch d l phdt trien ngan hang ihUdng mai gdn vdi tang trUdng kinh td'ln dinh, gdp phan tao ndn mdt mdi trUdng kinh td' vT md thuan ldi tai Viet Nam nhff sau:
5. /. Hien dgi hoa hogt dgng ngdn hdng thUdng mgi
Hien dai hda hoat ddng ngan hang la vide xem xet tren cac phUdng didn nhU cdc quy trinh, he thd'ng va ph^n mlm cdng nghe thdng tin, ddn gian hoa cd ca'u t l chffe, tang cUdng dich vu khach hang, da dang hda san pham dich vu ngan hang, cai thien quan tri, quan ly riii ro va tuan thu quy dmh. Tuy nhien, cd't loi cua viec hien dai hda hoat dpng ngan hang thUdng mai van la viec phdt trien va dp dung cdng nghe thdng tin hien dai.
Cdng nghe thdng tin ddng vai trd quan trpng va quye't dinh trong vide hidn dai hda hoat dpng ngan hang. Do vay, chid'n lUdc phdt trie'n ngan hang thUdng mai Viet Nam la phat triin cd sd ha tang cdng nghe ngan hang hien dai, dat ngang tam vdi cdc nffdc trong khu vUc, dUa tren cd sd ffng dung cd hieu qua cdng nghe thdng tin va chuan mffc theo thdng le qud'c Id. Dilu nay se giup cho ngan hang thUdng mai Viet Nam nhanh chdng va de dang hdn trong vide tid'p can cac thanh phan kinh td', cac dd'i
tUdng khdch hdng de md rdng quy md, da dang hda cac san pham/dich vu va ede phUdng thffc thanh toan hien dai.
5.2. Ddm bdo an todn hogt dgng ngdn hdng thUdng mgi
Toan cau hda va dp md thudng mai la nhffng thach thffc dd'i vdi he thd'ng ngan hang ihffdng mai khdng chi d Viet Nam ma cdn d nhieu qud'c gia khdc. Sir tang trudng nhanh chdng trong hoat dpng dau tu san xual ddi hdi ngan hang thffdng mai cung phai nang cao nang lUc hoat ddng de dap ffng cdc nhu cau ve djch vu tai chinh ngan hang cho cac hoat ddng kinh td' - xa hpi. Vide md rdng quy md, nang cao nang lUc hoat ddng da lam ngan hdng IhUdng mai trUe til^p dd'i didn vdi mdt loat rui ro xung quanh hoat ddng kinh doanh ngan hang va nhiJng tac dpng tieu cue ed ihl cd tff cdc riii ro nay nhu riii ro tin dung, riii ro ihanh khoan. Do dd, cdc ngdn hang thUdng mai phai dam bdo dUdc giffa ldi nhuan mang lai lU hoat ddng kinh doanh vdi viec duy tri mUc dp an toan trong hoat ddng theo chuan mUc va thdng le qud'c le' Basel IL
5.3. Dieu hdnh chinh sdch tien tf linh hogt Dieu hanh chinh sdch tiln td chu dpng, linh hoat nhung than trong. ke't hdp chdt che vdi cdc chinh sdch nhd mdn dinh kinh id" vimd, gdp phan tang trudng kinh te' dn dmh va dam bao an toan hoat dpng cua he thd'ng ngdn hang thUdng mai tren cd sd bdm sat dien bie'n linh hinh cda nen kinh td' trong nUdc va the" gidi. TiJy thupc vdo tffng giai doan, tffng thdi diem ma cd chtnh sdch
3 3 2 So 14-Thar^g 6/2020
TAI CHiNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
tien td phu hdp nhu irong giai doan thi trudng tdi chinh cd didn bid'n phffc tap, khdng thuan ldi cho nin kinh td' thi chinh sdch tiln td Ung phd hoan todn khac trong thdi gian hoat dpng binh thudng ciia thi trudng, Khi dd, ddi hdi cac nha hoach dinh phai cd nhii'ng chinh sach kip ihdi Ung phd vdi cdc tac ddng kinh te' vT md cua thi trUdng tai chinh trong tUdng lai ciing nhU cac chinh sach mang linh quyd't dmh de cd the dat dUdc muc tieu mong mud'n v l ihi trUdng.
5.4. Ve chinh sdch thUdng mgi
De khuyd'n khich tang trffdng kinh te' trong dai han can chii y phdt trien ngan hang thffdng mai bang cac chinh sach thUdng mai nhU Hiep dinh Dd'i tac toan dien va Tie'n bd xuyen Thdi Binh DUdng (CPTPP). Day la Hiep dinh dau tidn va duy nhd't cho de'n thdi dilm nay xac Idp khudn khd phdp ly cho vide d^u tU trong ITnh vUc tai chinh ngdn hdng. Theo do, cdc td chffe ldi chinh
nUdc ngoai ed the tham gia thi trudng Viet Nam vdi nhieu hinh ihUc khae nhau. Su phat trien cua ITnh v\ic ngan hang khdng chi gitip ngan hang IhUdng mai md rdng quy md de lao dilu kien cho mpi ngudi dan, mpi thanh phan kinh te' tie'p can va sff dung cdc san pham tai chinh ngan hang ma edn mang lai cho cdc nhd dau tU mdt mdi trffdng kmh doanh binh dang va minh bach.
Ben canh viec cac cd quan chinh phii hoac cdc phdi doan thffdng mai tap trung thiic day dp md thUdng mai, hdp tac song phUdng hay da phUdng vdi cac nude thi cac nha hoach dinh can phai soan thao cac chinh sdch thUdng mai dam bao vide ihUc thi cac chinh sdch se giup tang cudng dp md thUdng mai de kich thich tdng trffdng kinh te' cua da't nffdc. Tuy nhien, cac chinh sdch nay cung can ehu y dd'n vide kiem soat lam phdt d l ddm bao lam phat dffde duy tri d mdt mUc khdng gay anh hudng tieu cUc de'n sff phdt trid'n cua nen kinh te •
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TAP CHl CONG THtfliNG
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Ngay nh^n bait 20/5/2020
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va su'a chffa: 29/5/2020 Ngay cha'p nhgn dang bai: 10/6/2020
Thong tin tdc gid:
1. PGS.TS. TRAN HUY HOANG Triftfng Dai h9c Tai chinh - Marlieting 2. PGS.TS. HUYNH QUANG LINH Triftfng Dai hgc Tra Vinh 3. N G U Y I N THJ HONG ANH
Trifdng Dai hoc C6ng nghidp Thanh ph6' H 6 Chi Minh
THE IMPACTS OF BANKING DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRADE OPENNESS
AND INFLATION IN VIETNAM
• Assoc. Prof. Ph.D. TRAN HUY HOANG University of Finance a n d Marl<eting
• Assoc. Prof. Ph.D. HUYNH QUANG LINH Tra Vinh University
• NGUYEN THI HONG ANH industriai University of Ho Chi Minh City
ABSTRACT:
This research uses the ARDL model to test the impact of banMng development, economic growth, trade openness and inflation in Viemam. The research's data were collected from databases of the Intemational Monetary Fund (IMF) and the General Statistics Office of Viemam from Ql/2000 to Q4/20I8. The research's results reveal that the economic growth has impacts on inflation in both short and long term during the studied period.
Keywords: Banidng development, economic growth, trade openness, inflation.
3 3 4 So 14 - Thang 6/2020
