NGHIEN Ctfu & TRAO D O I
IVI
KIM NGAC A T K H
ma
PHE V I ^ I A M
PGS.TS. DINH PHI HO* & ThS. PHAM NGOC DUCiNG*
Td ndm 2000, VN trd thdnh qudc gia xudt khdu cd phe ddng thd 2 the gidi ve sdn Idpng vd Id nddc xudt khdu Idn nhdt the gidi ve loai cd phe vdi (Robusta). Mac du vay, kim ngach xudt khdu cd phe con thdp nhieu so vdi tiem ndng the hien qua gid xudt khdu cd phe cua VN thdp hcfn gid xudt khdu cd phe cung loai, cung phdm cdp cua cdc nddc khdc. De ndng cao gid tri kim ngach xudt khdu cd phi VN trong thdi gian tdi, cdn tint hieu nguyin nhdn ddn de'n tinh trang ndy. Dda vdo sd lieu thd cdp thu thap td To chdc cd phi the gidi (ICO), bdo cdo thddng niin ve ngdnh cd phi VN cua Bp Nong nghiep vd Phdt trien nong thon, Tdng cue Hdi quan VN, nhom tdc gid nhdn diin ddpc 5 nguyin nhdn chu yiu: chdt liipng cd phi, bdt cap trong cong tdc qudn ly hoat dpng xudt khdu, khd ndng dd bdo thi trddng cua cdc doanh nghiep, chda co nguon lUc tdi chinh de ho trp cdp vdn cho cdc doanh nghiep, khd ndng tim kiim khdch hdng cua cdc doanh nghiep xudt khdu. Vd gcfi y 6 gidi phdp cdn ddpc quan tdm: thdnh lap Hpi dong cd phi qudc gia vd Quy phdt trien cd phi qudc gia, kiem sodt chat che chdt liipng cd phi xudt khdu vd chdt liipng cdphi cua cdc dai ly thu mua, tdng cddng cong tdc khuyin nong vd ndng cao trinh dp cdn bp kinh doanh xudt khdu cd phi.
1. Din nhap
Ca phe la mpt trong nhflng mat hang ndng san cd gia tri kinh te eao, la ngudn thu n h a p quan trong eua nhieu qud'e gia tren the gidi trong dd ed VN. Chinh tU nhan thfle dd m l ngay sau khi dat nudc hoan toan thd'ng n h a t (1975), nganh ndng nghiep VN da chpn cac tinh khu vifc Tay Nguyen va mpt sd tinh mien Ddng Nam Bp de phat trien cay ea phe. Chi trong vdng 25 n a m sau (2000) \TSr trd thanh qude gia xuat khau ea phe ddng thfl 2 the gidi ve san Iflpng (sau Brazil) vdi thi phan cung cap khoang 13 den 18% lifpng ea phe cho nhu clu tieu dung tren pham vi toan eau va la nUdc xua't khau Idn n h a t the gidi ve loai ea phe vdi (Robusta) vdi thi p h i n dang n i m gifl tdi 36,7%
(2009) [11]. Mae du vay, gia xua't khau ca phe Robusta eua VN chi b l n g 63 - 85% gia xuat khau
ea phe cung loai, cUng pham cap eua cac nUde khac da l i m eho kim ngach xuat khau ca phe cua VN mat di mdi nam hang t r a m trieu USD. Cae phan tieh dUdi day se lam rd nguyen nhan va de xuat eae giai phap n h a m nang cao gia tri kim ngach xuat khau ea phe VN trong thdi gian tdi.
2. Th^c tr^ng xuat khau ca phe VN ra thi tril&ng the gidi
- Ve sdn luang vd thi phdn
TrUdc khi ehinh thfle hdi nhap trd lai vdi nen kinh te the gidi (thdi diem trflde khi My dd bd lenh cam van thflong mai vdi VN vao nam 1994), san Iflpng ea phe xuat khau ra thi trfldng the gidi rat han che', n a m cao n h a t (1993) cung ehi dat 124,310 nghin tan, tflong dflpng 2,7% thi p h i n ea phe toan cau. Sau khi My dd bo lenh cam van thdpng mai dd'i vdi VN, eae doanh nghiep cua VN
Trudng Dai hoc Kinh Te TP.HCfVl
' Trudng Cao ding Kinh te - Ky thuat Sai Gdn Phat trien kinh te - Thang Tfl nam 2011
45
N G H I E N CU'U & TRAO D O I
dupc xua't khau true tiep cho khach h a n g nflde ngoai thi s i n Iflpng xuat khau eua nganh ea phe VN da tang len rat nhanh va manh me, eu the la vao nam 1994 VN xua't khau 163,254 nghin tan.
tUPng dUPng 3,92% thi phan ca phe toan cau thi de'n nam 2001 eae chi sd tUdng flng da la 846.386 nghin tan, chie'm 15.52 % thi phan ea phe toan clu va chinh thfle vUpt qua Colombia ve san lUpng de trd thanh nUdc xuat khau ca phe Idn hang thfl 2 the gidi. Hien nay nganh ea phe VN dang ddng vai tro dac biet quan trpng trong viee cung cap ca phe cho nhu elu tieu dung t r e n pham vi toan clu vdi thi phan k h o i n g 18%. Bang 1 cho thay san lupng xuat k h i u va thi phan cua ea phe \\N" t r e n thi trudng the gidi trflde va sau khi Aly dd bd lenh cam van thuong mai dd'i vdi VN.
Bang 1. San Ifldng xuat khau va thj phan cua ca phe VN tren thi trfldng the gidi
Nam
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Lflpng ca phe xua't khau tren
the gidi (nghin bao)
79.202.470 74.593.907 77.031.855 74.132.912 69.297,706 65.768,239 75.773.713 78.502.492 78.053.901 83,417,102 89.562.101 90.858.978 88.831.837 86.369.561 91.093.362 87.606,412 92.290,040 96.640,478 97.662,441 95.466,356
Lflpng ca phe xuat khau cua VN
San lupng (nghin
bao) 1.145.234 1.200,952 1.937,611 2.071,837 2.720,911 3.546,405 3.775,415 6.177,834 6.466,712 7.727,013 11.618.376 14.106.443 11,771,367 11.631.111 14.858.991 13.432,034 13.904,702 17.936,219 16.101,372
"7.051.734
(nghin tan)
68,714 72,057 116,256 124,310 163,254 212,784 226,524 370,670 388.002 463,620 697,102 846,386 706,282 697,866 891,539 805,922 834,282 1.076,173 966.082 1.023.104
Thi phan
(°=) 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.7 3.92 5.39 4,98 7,86 8,28 9,26 12.97 15,52 13,25 13,46 16.31 15.33 15,06 18,55 16,48 17.86
Nam 2009, ca phe VN da dUpc xuat khau sang 99 qud'e gia va viing lanh thd t r e n pham vi toan eau [2], trong dd chi rieng 10 qudc gia nhap khau nhieu n h a t la My, Ddc, Bi, Y, Tay Ban Nha, Nhat.
Ha Lan, Thuy si, H a n Qud'e va Anh da chie'm tdi 61,4 % tdng san lupng xuat khau ca phe eua ^"X.
Ca 10 khach h a n g Idn n h a t cua nganh ca phe \'N deu la nhflng qud'c gia cd nen cdng nghiep phat trien vdi yeu eau k h i t khe ve chat Iflpng san pham eho t h a y ea phe cua XlN" ngay cang ddpc danh gia eao.
hba ky 10.6%
£ICFC11.CI%
Kha; 38.6%
B i i 1.6%
Anh 2 3 % Han Quoc 2.4%
Thuy sT Z5%
-Nhat Ban 4.3%
1-6 Lai 2.8%
Hinh 1. Ty trpng nhap khau cua 10 khach hang Idn nhat cua nganh ca phe VN
Ngudn: Tinh toan cua tac gia tren sd lieu cua ICO va TCHQ VN [2]
Bang 2. Kim ngach va gia xua't khau cua ca phe VN
Nam
1996 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Kim ngach xua't khau
(trieu USD)
400,26 501.45 735,485 1.189,482 1.881,448 2.116.187 1.710.602
Gia xuat khau Gia
FOB tai cang
cua VN (USD /tan) 1.410
680 789 1.178 1.389 1.868 1.474
Gia xuat khau ca
phe Robusta trung binh cua the gidi
(USD /tan)
2.006 1.075 1.014 1.353 1.822 2.342 1.733
Chenh lech ve
gia gifla gia XK ca phe VN va the gidi
(USD /tan)
596 395 225 175 433 474 259
So sanh
gia XK ciia VN
{%) 70,26 63,32 77.78 78.03 76,22 79,73 85.05
Ngudn: Tac gia tinh toan td sd lieu cua iCO [13]
Ngudn: Tac gia tinh toan td sd lieu thdng ke cua TCHQ [4] va ICO [12]
Phat trien kinh te - Thang Tfl nam 2011
NGHIEN Cufu & TRAO D O I
- Ve kim ngach vd gid xudt khdu
Sau khi My dd bd lenh cam van thflOng mai do'i vdi VN, kim ngach xua't khau ea phe cua VN da tang trfldng nhanh va dn dinh, ne'u nam 1996 kim ngach xuat khau cua VN chi dat khoang 400 trieu USD thi de'n nam 2008 kim ngach xuat khau ca phe VN da vflpt ngfldng 2 ty USD, gap tren 5 lan gia tri kim ngach xua't khau cua nhflng nam diu mdi hpi nhap. Bang 2 eho thay kim ngach xuat khau cua ca phe VN trong khoang 15 nam qua.
Hpi nhap vao nen kinh te the gidi da tao dieu kien cho nganh ca phe VN p h a t trien nhanh, manh va mang ve ngudn thu ngoai te Idn cho dat nddc. Tuy nhien, gia tri kim ngach xuat khau chUa phan anh het nang life hien ed cua nganh ea phe VN, le ra doanh so nay cdn cao hon rat nhieu ne'u khong cd sif chenh lech Idn gifla gia xua't khau ca phe Robusta cua VN va gid xuat khau e l phe Robusta trung binh tren the gidi, dd la mpt nghich ly khi VN la qud'e gia xuat khau Idn n h a t the gidi loai ca phe nay. Tren eP sd cua ly thuyet cung eau bang hda, VN hoan toan ed the dieu tiet lUpng ca phe xuat khau vao eae thdi diem thich hpp trong nam nham tac dpng den gia ea phe tren the gidi de mang lai Ipi ich thie't thdc cho nganh ea phe VN. Bang 2 eho thay trong khoang 15 nam qua, gia xuat khau trung binh cua ca phe VN ludn thap bon gia xua't khau e l phe Robusta trung binh eua the gidi, cd nam mfle gia chenh lech nay len den 596 USD/tan (nam 1996) va mfle gia chenh lech nay v i n cdn d mfle 259 USD/tan vao nam 2009 cho thay chi tinh rieng n a m 2009 nganh ea phe VN da mat di khoang 264,984 trieu USD. Cd sif chenh lech Idn gifla gia xua't khau ea phe Robusta eua VN va gia xua't khau ca phe Robusta trung binh tren the gidi la do VN xua't khau ca phe ehu ye'u d dang pham cap tha'p. So' lieu Bang 3 eho thay trong cac nien vu gan day VN xuat khau ca phe Robusta loai 2 vdi 5% t a p chat (R2 (5%)) chie'm tdi 50 - 60%, trong khi dd loai ed pham cap cao nhfl Robusta loai 1 vdi 2% tap chat (RI) ehi chiem khoang 16 - 27%.
Cd mpt thfle te la nhieu khach hang nflde ngoai ehd dpng dat mua ca phe d dang pham cap thap rdi dfla de'n cang cua nflde khac tai che, phan loai
c h i t Ipc lay p h i n c l phe chat Iflpng cao dfla ra giao dich tren san giao dich ca phe Robusta tai London (LIFFE) da thu dflpc Idi Idn, p h i n cdn lai dfla vao dang s i n pham phe pham hi t h i i loai da lam I n h hfldng de'n hinh anh chung eua n g l n h ca phe VN. Theo thd'ng ke ICO chi rieng nien vu 2005/2006 ed tdi 88% s i n lupng ca phe hi thai loai tren thi trUdng the gidi II eua VN [1].
Bang 3. Chat Iflcping ca phe xuat khau cua VN phan theo ty le
Cac loai chat IflOng R2 (5%) R2 khac RI (2%) RI khac Phan loai theo loi Cac loai chat lupng khac
Nien vy 2005/2006
(%)
61,65 8,18 16,14 5,35 1,22 7,45
100
Nien vy 2006/2007
(%)
55,48 3,38 29,99 3,44 0,82 6,90
100
Nien vy 2007/2008
(%)
50,14 6,55 27,58 5,40 1,87 8,44
100 Ngudn: Bao eao thudng nien nganh hang ea phe VN nam 2009 [1]
Tfl nhflng thUe te tren, ta nhan thay r i n g kim ngach xuat khau cua nganh ca phe VN cdn thap, chfla phan I n h dung thfle life bdi mpt so' nguyen nhan cP ban sau:
Mpt Id, chat Iflpng ca phe cua VN chfla dflpc khach hang nflde ngoai danh gia cao bdi:
- Trong qua trinh thu hoach ed tdi 45,7% so' hd thu hai ea phe cd ty le qua chin chUa tdi 50%.
41,8% sd hp thu hai ca phe cd ty le chin tfl 50 - 70% va ehi cd 12,5% so' hd thu hai cd ty le qua chin tren 70% [1] eho nen chat Iflpng ca phe xuat khau khdng ddng deu, lan nhieu hat den, hat mdc, hat quit va cd nhieu tap chat.
- 99% s i n pham ca phe xua't khau la ^ang nhan thd, chua qua che bien [6].
- Phuong phap so che' lac hau, phan t a n va mang tinh thu cong, cd t r e n 85% san lupng do eae hp gia dinh cd dien tieh dUdi 2 ha san xuat. Qui trinh sd che phan tan, t r e n 80% san lUpng sP che dflpc thfle hien tai cac hp gia dinh, trong dd 50%
hd thie'u san phoi v l 80% hd khdng ed may say, p h i i phu thupc vao thdi tiet [6]; ehi cd 10% ea phe
Phat trien l<inh te - Thang Tfl nam 2011
47
NGHIEN Cufu & TRAO D O I
nhan dupe che' bien tai cle n h l may che bien cdng nghe [1].
- Cdng tac quin ly chat lUpng ea phe xuat khau con long leo, mac du da ed bp tieu chuan TCVN 4193:2005 phu hpp vdi quy dinh cua ICO, nhdng cae doanh nghiep VN v i n xua't khau ea phe phan loai theo bd tieu ehuIn TCVN 4193:1993 (xep hang difa tren kich thUdc hat v l ty le h a t den, vd tren mpt khdi Idpng san pham), trong khi dd hpp ddng mua ban ea phe Robusta tai thi trUdng LIFFE eua the gidi hien dang sfl dung phd bien phuong phap tinh sd lUpng Idi hoac ty trpng Idi tren tdng khdi Idpng.
Hai Id, cdng t i e q u i n ly hoat dpng xuat khau cdn bat cap, thudng xay ra hien tUpng "tram ngUdi ban, vai ngUdi mua" nen hi khach hang nUde ngoai ep gia. ThUe te cho thay trong nhflng n a m g i n day, mdi nam VN xuat khau khoang tren dUdi 1 trieu t a n ca phe, cd tdi 142 doanh nghiep kinh doanh xuat khau nhflng ehu ye'u chi b i n ea phe cho 12 doanh nghiep dai dien cho 8 tap doan rang xay che bien ea phe Idn cua the gidi dang ed van phong dai dien tai VN [3].
Ba Id, kha nang dif doan bien dpng eua thi trudng eua cac doanh nghiep cdn nhieu han che.
Trong khi dd, p h i n Idn ea phe dflpc giao dich theo phflong thfle ky han trfl lui va chdt gia sau vdi thdi gian qua dai nen nhieu khi doanh nghiep p h i i sfl dung lenh Stoploss de b a n che' tdn t h a t khi gia ca phe xud'ng qua thap do bi eae nha d i u cP thao tung.
Bdn la, chfla ed mpt quy t i i ehinh de cap vdn cho eae doanh nghiep Idn thfle hien eae cdng tac thu mua, tdn trfl ca phe vao luc diu vu va ban ra vao eae thdi diem thich hpp mang lai Ipi ich thie't thdc eho dat nUde va ngddi trdng ca phe.
Ndm la, kha nang tim kiem k h i c h hang la nhflng n h l rang xay, che bien ea phe Idn tren the gidi cua cac doanh nghiep xua't khau cdn nhieu ban che nen ea phe n h a n eua VN ehu ye'u ban eho eae cdng ty trung gian, cle n h l buon e l phe nflde ngoai d VN. Nang life dam phan trong thflong mai qud'e te' cdn yeu, eho nen khdng nhflng khdng the I p dat gia vdi khach hang ma cdn hi k h i c h hang I p dat ve mat chat lUpng san pham.
3. IVI$t sd'giai phap nhlm nang cao kim ng^ch xuat khau cQa ca phe VN trong h9i nhap kinh te qudc te
Vdi vi the la mpt nUde xua't khau ea phe dUng hang thfl 2 the gidi ve san Iflpng va la qude gia xua't khau Idn n h a t the gidi ve ca phe Robusta, t r e n eo sd ly thuyet cung — eau ve hang hda, nganh ca phe VN hoan toan ed kha nang t i e dpng vao gia thi trfldng ea phe toan eau ne'u chu dpng dieu tiet Iflpng ea phe xuat khau vIo cac thdi diem thich hpp n h a m tac dpng gia ban ca phe, nang eao g i i tri kim ngach xua't khau v l eii thien ddi song eua ngUdi trdng ca phe tai \iN. De thife hien dupc dieu nay can sif tac dpng cua rat nhieu yeu td, tuy nhien trong khuon khd bai viet nhdm tac g i i de xuat mpt so giai p h i p cd tich chat eo ban nhat, cd the thfle hien ngay n h l m nang cao gia xuat khau va kim ngach xua't khau eua ca phe VN, dd la:
- Can sdm t h a n h lap Hpi ddng ca phe qudc gia gdm dai dien eua Bp Cdng thddng, Bp Ndng nghiep va P h a t trien ndng thon, Bp Tai chinh.
Van phong Chinh phu, Ngan hang Nha nflde VN, Hiep hpi ea phe ea eao VN, Hiep hpi nhflng ngfldi trdng ea phe, Hiep hpi nhflng nha xua't khau,...
nham dieu phd'i chung hoat dpng xuat khau cl phe cua VN.
- Can p h i i t h a n h lap mot quy p h i t trien ca phe qud'c gia de thfle hien cap vd'n tin dung cho eae doanh nghiep Idn thfle hien thu mua va tdn trfl ca phe tfl ngfldi ndng dan vdi mfle gia tdi thieu phai bu d i p dflpc chi phi va khoang 30% Ipi nhuan cho ngfldi trdng c l phe. Day la giii phap cd t i m quan trpng dae biet tac dpng de'n cae giii phap khac bdi khi cac doanh nghiep xuat khau Idn ddpc hd trp vd'n thdi gian du dai de td ehfle thu mua va ehu dpng xuat khau vIo cle thdi diem thich hpp trong n a m thi mdi cd k h i nang tac ddng len gii xuat khau ea phe Robusta trung binh eua the gidi, ed Ipi cho nganh ea phe VN. Bien phap nay khdng ehi nang eao thu nhap, dn dinh ddi so'ng eua ngUdi trdng ca phe ma cdn nang cao chat lUpng el phe bdi vi khi ngfldi trdng ca phe yen tam rang san pham cua hp se dUpc thu mua vdi mfle gia bu dap dflpc chi phi v l ed Ipi nhuan thi hp khdng eon phai vpi vang thu hoach ca phe khi cdn nhieu qui xanh
Phat trien l<inh t e - T h a n g T f l nam 2011
NGHIEN CU'U & TRAO D O I
vao luc dau vu vi sp luc ehinh vu nhieu ngUdi cung ban thi gii ea phe se giam xud'ng.
- P h i i kiem soat chat che chat Iflpng ea phe xuat khau, cflpng quye't khdng cho xua't khau cac 16 hang khdng dat tieu chuan theo quy dinh hien nay cua VN II TCVN 4193:2005, tien tdi ap dung phan loai ca phe theo bp tieu chuan chat lUpng cua ICO II ISO 10470:2004 eho tat ca san pham ca phe xuat khau cua VN.
- Ap dung hinh phat t h a t nang dd'i vdi cae dai ly thu mua ca phe ne'u ed so' qua xanh tren 30%, bdi thifc te hlu het cac dai ly thu mua khdng phan biet gia gifla ea phe xanh va ca phe chin nen ngUdi trdng ca phe v i n ap dung phflOng phap tud't ca canh 01 l l n tren 01 cay de tiet kiem chi phi thu hai du biet ty le qua chin tren cay chfla dat yeu eau theo quy dinh.
- Dao tao dpi ngu can bp kinh doanh ed kha nang dfl doan bien ddng eua thi trfldng, cd k h i nang dam phan qudc te, ed hieu biet sau ve thi trddng ky ban de h a n che rui ro trong viec ap dung phflOng thfle giao h I n g chdt gia sau tien tdi ap dung hinh thfle giao hang tra tien de tranh tdn that do gii thi trfldng xud'ng qua thap.
- Tang cUdng cdng tac khuyen ndng de cung cap kien thfle s i n xua't e l phe eho cae hd nong dan, giup hp thay ddi thdi quen gieo trdng, cham sdc, thu hoach v l che bien kieu lac hau de ap dung cac phuong thfle san xuat tien tien mdi tao ra san pham cd chat Iflpng cao, de ban dflpc gia caoB
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Vien chinh sach va chien Iddc phat trien nong nghiep ndng thon, Bp Ndng nghiep va Phat trien ndng thon, Bao cao thudng nien nganh hang ca phe nam 2009
va trien vong 2010 (02/201 0).
2. Trung tam thdng tin nong nghiep va phat trien ndng thon (AGROINFOR) (7/2010), Bao cao nganh hang ca phe VN 6 thang dau nam 2010.
3. http://ww/w.baocongthuong.com.vn/Details/kinh- t e / c a - p h e - t h u a - l o - d o - t r a m - n g u o i - b a n - v a i - n g u o i - mua/32/9/33090.star (29/12/2010).
4. http://vi^ww.moit.gov.vn (22/12/2010).
5. http://giacaphe.com/6706/ac-lac-cay-dang-vi-ca- phe.html (22/12/2010).
6. http://giacaphe.com/9949/se-co-hop-tac-xa-ca- phe-dau-tien-tai-viet-nam.html (31/12/2010).
7. http://giacaphe.com/8406/thu-hai-qua-xanh-ban- non-ca-phe-van-nan-den-bao-gio.html (19/10/2010).
8. http://xttm.agroviet.gov.vn (Trung tam xuc tien thuong mai, Bp NN & PTNT).
9. http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/kinhdoanh/xu- atnhapkhau/42669 (27/12/2010).
10. http://www.vicofa.org.vn (Hiep hpi Ca cao - Ca phe VN).
11. Coffee Market Report, November 2010, ICO, http://www.ico.org (22/12/2010).
12. ICO Annual Review 2008-2009, ICO, http://www.ico.org.
Phat trien kinh te - Thang Tfl nam 2011
