NGHltNCflU-TRAO
• Ths. PHONG TAN HAI TRI^U
1. Nhiitag kh&i ni$m ctf bAn ve di^ trvT ngo^i h6i
DU trU ngo^i htfl (hay d\f tril ngo^i t^) theo diing nghia bao gom ngoal t§ (dUd! dgng Udn gifl va trai phl^u) va vang dUqJc glfl tai cac ngan hang trung UtJng (NHTU). quyen nit vdn dac bl^t, va du tril cua IMF tai mOt qutfc gla. Tuy nhien. dU triJ ngoal htfl thudng dupc hl^u mpt each phd bien bao gdm ngoal te va vang.
Day la tai sSn cfla cac NHTU, diJdc gliJ b^ng cac ddng tten qutfc t^ thtfng dvng nhu dtfng do la (dupc svt dung cho dU trU ngoai te d nhieu nUdc), dong euro hoac dong yen, va thUdng dupc dung de bdo ddm trach nhiem phap ly ciia NHTU khi In Sn dtfng npi te, hoac khi dl vay cac ttf chUc tai chinh quoc te hOqlc chinh phii nUdc ngoal.
Ngdn hang tmng Ucfng cOa mpt qutfc gla khong the ban hanh dtfng tien cua mot quoc gia khac. v^y dU trU ngoai hoi cua mpt qutfc gia dupc hinh thanh ttf dau? Ve cd bdn, ngogi te cua mot nUdc co dUdc nhd vao chinh yeu tU 3 ngutfn: (1) ddu tu trUc tiep tU nUdc ngoal (foreign direct investment) va vay ODA (Official Development Assistance); (2) tian ngogi htfl cua kieu bao gfl'l v6 cho than nhan d que nha; (3) XK cac hang hoa. dich vu, hoac tai nguyen mtfi trUdng (ddu khi, ntfng, lam, ngU, hdi sdn...] va thu v6 ngogi te. Cd 3 nguon nay
d6u dUdc ghi chep va th^ hi^n d cdn cdn thanh todn tdng thd ciia qutfc gla. Va trong can can thanh todn. XNK rtfng thudng chl*?m ml>t t^ trpng rdt ldn. NhU vay, mpt qutfc gla co thd thu v^
nhieu ngogl t$ bdng cdch phdt tridn ndn kinh td theo hUdng XK th$t nhidu hdng hoa hoac d}ch vv (dien hinh la Trung Qutfc hoac An Dp).
2. Mi^c tl^u chi^n Ititfc cua vi^c duy tri d^ trfi ugoai h^'l
V^y vai trtf cua dU trfl ngoai hoi trong nen kinh te quan trpng nhu the ndo? Thi2 nhdt.
mpt lupng ngogi hoi ldn se cho phep mot nUdc mua nhidu hdng hoa vd dich vu phuc vu cho nhu cdu tieu diing, cdi thien ndng suat trong nUdc, cung nhu mua sdm thiet yeu lien quan den qutfc phong phuc vu cho nhu cdu an ninh qutfc phong. Tha hai, viec ndm giii mpt lupng ngoal te ldn se duy
tri long tin vd khd ndng ddm bdo thanh todn nghia vy nd nUdc ngoal ciia ndn kinh td.
khd ndng htf trd gid trj cfla dtfng nOl t$, thd hl$n khd nang ddm bdo tai chinh cua qutfc gia, til do gop phdn thu hut ddu tu trVc tidp va ddu tU gian tldp nUdc ngodi, cung nhU ddm phan dupc nhilng didu khodn thuan Idi khi ky kdt hdp tdc vdl cac dtfl tac tai chinh quoc td.
Thi2 ba, d\f tril ngogl htfl giup duy tri tinh thanh khodn cua thi trudng dd hgn che tdc dtfng tltfu cUc trong trUdng hdp xdy ra khung hodng tdi chinh, hodc trong cdc trUdng hdp khan cdp lien quan den quoc gia... Vi vay, hdu het cdc nUdc tren the gidi deu CO chien lUdc tich luy nhidu ngoal te dd gia tang nSng lUc tdi chinh cfla minh.
Ve vi mo. nhUng hoat dpng mua bdn lien quan den dU tril ngogi htfl deu lam ^ " ^
[ ^ tdng ho$c gl&m lUijfng tidn n^l td trong lUu thtfng, tit dtf dnh hudng tnjtc tiip din chinh sdch tlin t$ ud chtnh sdch tQ gtA.
Vdi mOt lUdng ngogl t^ Idn.
NHTU ctf cd hOl kldm sodt t^ gid ciia dtfng nOI t^. bftng vide didu tidt cung tidn tu vide mua bdn dtfng nOI td. CM thd. vide dung du tar ngogl td dd mua cdc logl tidn n^i td dang lUu hdnh s^
ldm gidm cung tidn nQI Id- tdng nhu cdu cfla dtfng n^l td. tU dtf Idm dtfng n^l td mgnh Idn.
khuydn khfch NK (vd ldm trdm trgng hdn thdm hgt cdn cdn vdng lai). Ngupc tgl, vl^c sO:
dvng dtfng ndi td dd mua ngogl td sd Idm tang cung tidn nOI td.
hg gid til cfla dtfng n^l td.
khuydn khich XK (do gid cd hang htfa XK rd dl). Tuy nhlftn.
NHTU thudng phdl phdt hdnh them tidn ndi td dd ctf ngutfn tdl chinh mua Igl ngogl td dang luu thtfng. Chinh sdch nay tuy Idm tdng dU tri7 ngogl htfl. nhUng cung se gdy ra Igm phat tU h$
qud cfla vi^c tang them cung tidn. De khdc phyc tinh trang nay, NHTU co thd sfl dyng nghiep vy thi trUdng md (Open market operations) dd giii cung tien khtfng thay dtfl. trung htfa tac ddng vi^c dug them tidn ndi te vao lUu thdng.
Trong cdc myc titfu dd neu tren, Uu tien hdng ddu cfla dU tnJ ngoal hdl Id dd thUc hi§n chinh sdch tiin t$ vd chinh sdch ty gid. Cy thd tgi nhUng nUdc dp dyng cd che t^ gid thd ndi ctf qudn Iy nhU Vl^t Nam, An Dp, Trung Qutfc, dU trfl ngoal hoi dUdc sfl dyng dd hgn che sU hien dtfng ciia t^ gid htfl dodi.
3. Cdc hinh thAc qudn 1^ di;r trie ngogi h6l
Theo Quy tidn td quoc te IMF, CO 4 hinh thUc qudn ly vd 41 TnntMVS6 27/2012
I ^ M ^ ^ " \ ^ " ^ ^ ^-^^^'-^^B^^BM
S^r^ ^^k
ad hCtu du trff ngogl hdl nhU sau:
(0 NHTti sd hffu vd qudn IJ (vf dy Vidt Nam); (li) Chinh phi^ sd hilu vd qudn ]^ (vf dy Singapore);
(111) Chfnh phfl sd hCTu; NHTl/
qudn ly (Canada): (Iv) Chinh phfl vd NHTlf dtfng sd hflu dy tril; nhung NHTlJ qudn 1$ (Hdn Qudc).
Tal hdu hdt cdc nUdc. vide sd hllu vd qudn l^ dU trfl ngogl htfl thudng dUdc glao cho NHTU. la cd quan hogch dfnh vd thuc thi chinh sdch Udn td qudc gia. trUc tldp thUe hidn.
Tgl mdt sd nudc khdc, hinh thUc sd hUu vd qudn ly quy dU trU ctf thd id sU phtfl hdp glUa chinh phfl vd 2 cd quan la BO Tdl chinh vd NHTU. Vi dy, tgl Canada. dU tri? ngogl htfl do chinh phfl sd hOu nhung NHTU Canada vd BO Tal chinh dtfng qudn ly. Tgl My, BO Tdl chinh sd hdu quj^ binh tfn Hdi dodl, nhUng hogt dOng can thldp chinh sdch t j gid dUdc thUc hi^n bdi Ngdn hang DU trU lien bang (Federal Reserve). Tgl Hdn Qutfc, NHTU cung vdl BO Tal chinh sd hUu dU trU ngoal htfl, tuy nhien NHTFU Id cd quan qudn ly tdt cd dU trU.
4. Chi phf duy tri di^ triZ ngogi htfl?
Dtfl vdl nhidu nUdc. ddc bi?t
Id d cdc th| trUdng mdi ntfl. dif tri? ngogi htfl Id mOt tal sdn Idn cfla qutfc gla vd edng vide qudn ly du trU rdt phUc tgp vd tdn thdl gian. NHTU khtfng chi tn^c tldp siJr dyng dif trU ngoai hoi dd can thldp t^ gid ngogl hoi tren thj trUdng ngogl htfl trong nildc dd tfn dtnh gla tr| cfla tien td trong nUdc. ma trong nhidu trUdng h^^p phdi ddu tu du trfl ngogl hdl tren thi trUdng quoc td. Vl sao cdc NHTU phdl mang quy dU trfl di ddu tu. ma khong dan gidn tich luy thdt nhieu ngogl td? Ly do chinh la sU thay dtfl t j gid htfl dodi Ithay doi khdng chi do chinh sdch cua NHTU trong nUPc, md con do chii\h sdch cua cdc NHTU cdc niiOc khddi se ctf tdc dtfng manh len chinh gid tri tai s&n trong dfl trU ngogl htfl. Cu thd vdi Trung Qudc. hidn CO quy mtf dU trfl USD ldn nhdt thd gidi va cung Id chfl nd Idn nhdt cfla My, sU suy ydu cfla USD dd din ddn mdt mdt tUdng doi ldn cho gia tri cfla dU trU USD cua Trung Qutfc. Ly do thU hai la doi vai USD, la ngoal ttf thtfng dung nhdt tgi cac dU trS ngogl hoi, co rdt it cd hOi ddu tu ctf khd ndng sinh Idi cao (hi$n d My, lai sudt trdi phiiu dd dUdi rmic 1% trong 4 ndm gdn ddy). Neu mtft nU6c cang tich luy nhidu ngoai te, du
HGHItNClIU
chi phi cd hOl cua nude do cdng tdng cao, do 101 nhudn thu dUdc tu ddu tu du trU ngogi htfl thudng thdp hdn chl phi dl vay vtfn nUdc ngodi. Vi v$y, cac qutfc gla hidn nay ddu quan tdm ddn viec xdc dinh mUc d\f tril ngogl hoi vUa dfl dd CEtn thiep va duy tri sy on dinh cfla th! trUdng ngoai htfl. phu hpp vdi quy mtf cfla nen kinh td dd duy tri sUc mgnh kinh td cfla qudc gla vd chong dd cac cu stfc tU bfin ngodi, cdn bang glUa Idl ich cfla chinh sdch tidn td va chl phi cfla
qu^ ddu tu chinh phfl dd ddu tU sinh Idi mOt cdch thudn tuy (vd khtfng dUde sfl dyng vdo cdc bidn phdp can thldp). Tuy nhien, vdi cdc nUflc ndy. phdn Idn dU tril ngogl hdl vdn do NHTU trUc Udp ddu tu. qudn IJ dd ddm bdo khd ndng can thldp khi cdn thidt. TCf cdc ngutfn thdng ke (stf lidu ddn 05/2012 hodc gdn nhdt c6 thd), quy mtf du trU ngogi htfl va quy mtf tdi sdn cfla quy ddu tU chinh phfl (Sovereign Wealth Fund) cfla mOt stf qutfc gia nhU sau:
TT 1 2
-
3 4 5 6 7 8-
9 10
Qu5c gla
Tmng Quoc Nhat B^n CtlSu Au A rap Saudi Nga D^i Loan Ttiuy Sy Brazil Han Quoc Hong Kong
An Do Singapore
DM tril (TyUSD) 3.305 1.277 898 541 510 395 383 374 317 294 286 243
Quy dSu tu Ctitnh phG
Cliina Investment Corporation
SAMA Foreign Holdings National Welfare Fund
Sovereign Fund of Brazil Korea Investment Corporation Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio Temasek Holdings
Quy ni6 tdl sdn (Ty USD) 439,6
- -
532,8 149,7
11,3 43,0 293,3 157,5 viec nam giU dU tiTj ngoai hoi.
5. Quy md t^i lAi cua dtf triif ngoai hoi
Vay quy mo dU tnJ ngoai hoi nhu thd nao la vUa dfl? Theo Quy tidn te quoc te IMF, mUc dU trU ngoai hoi cua m6t nudc can tUdng dUdng tU 3 den 6 thang NK hang hod vd dich vu cfla nUdc do.
Ddi vdi cdc quoc gia co mUc du triJ ngogi tt vUa du hoac da vUdt xa tieu chuan 3 - 6 thang NK, nhu Singapore, Han Qutfc, Trung Qutfc, chien lUdc cfla cac nUdc nay la trich mot phdn dU triJ ngoai htfi giao cho Cty hodc
- Doi vdi cdc quoc gia khac (ctf mUc du trU ngoai te nhtf hdn 3 - 6 thdng NK). chien lupc khd di la tang cUdng XK hoac vay tCf cac to chUc tai chinh quoc te de bd sung dU trfl ngogi hoi, Tuy nhien, vdi cac nUdc co che do ty gia linh hogt co qudn ly va da tu do hod mpt phdn cdc giao dich von nhU tgi Vitft Nam, viec sfl" dung nguytfn tac so sdnh 3 - 6 thang NK se khtfng thich hdp ldm; vi cac nUdc nay luon phdi dtfl mat vdi rfli ro nit vtfn tU cdc ngutfn von ngdn han gian tiep (thUdng dUdc ddu tu vdo thi trUdng chUng khoan ho$c cac tai sdn
ctf tinh thanh khodn eao). Dtfl vdl cdc nudc ndy. quy mtf d\f trfl ngogl hdl cdn phdl Idn hdn mffc 3 thdng dd ctf thd can thldp kh' xdy ra hidn tUdng nit vtfn vd chuydn tf gt ra nUdc ngoal (co thd ddn ddn khan hldm ngogl td ngdn hgn, Idm kldt qud nhanh chtfng dU trU ngogl hoi cfla mOt nUdc). Btfn cgnh do, dtfl vdl cdc nUdc ctf mUc dO dtf la hod tUdng ddi cao nhu Vidt Nam (ty' Id ngogl td/M2 hidn d mUc 20% tijf nam 2008 ddn nay), mOt rfli ro nfla id khd nang rut ngoal te tf gt tgl cac ngdn hang thUdng mai (NHTM). va dU triJ ngogi htfl cung phdi gia tang de ddm bdo can thiep trong cdc tinh hutfng nay. vi NHTU khtfng thd in ngogi te dd ho trd cdc NHTM.
Doi vdi Viet Nam, vl^c tU do hoa tdl khoan vang Iai (do yeu cdu cfla hOi nh4p kinh td) vd tUng budc tu do htfa tai khodn von dd thuc day boat dOng ddu tU trong nUdc, nang cao tang trUdng kinh te, nhUng cung chUa dUng nhidu riii ro tidm
^n tu khflng hodng tai chinh (vi dy: ndu co hien tUdng chuydn dOt ngtft von vdi khoi lUdng ldn ra nUdc ngoal). Tuy chUa CO mpt nghien cUu cy the ndo ve mUc toi Uu doi vdi mot qutfc gia CO che dO t^ gia linh hogt CO qudn ly va dd tU do hod t a i . k h o d n vtfn nhU Viet Nam, mUc khuyen nghi cua IMF cho quy mtf dU trfl ngoal hoi la khoang 6 thdng NK hdng htfa vd dich vy •
IHUONGMflSf! 27/2012 15
