KINH TE- CHiNH TRI - XA HOI
ThJNh, su]^ liAy diEu chiNh?
TS. LE KIM SA Vien Khoa hoc xd hot Viet Nam
I. Trong mot buc tranh chung Thai gian qua. cac nuoc cong nghiep hoa da phai trai qua nhQ-ng con bat on lai chfnh nghiem trong. Hien nay, cac niroc nay dang phai vat Ion vai cuoc khiing hoang ng ngay cang lan rong va that nghiep tang cao. Tang tru'dng cua cac nuac nay se khong con la Iuong gio xuoi chieu cho cac nen kinh te dang phat triln nhu trong thai ky bijng no tryac khiing hoang.
Ca hoi de giai quyet nhung bat on va nguy ca suy thoai truac khi hoan toan hoi phue tir khiing hoang kinh te va suy thoai toan cau da tra nen mong manh. Dieu nay ph5n Ion la do sir mat can bang va tinh de do va da dugc tich luy qua nhieu nam do chinh sach sai ISm a My va chau Au. Nhung sai 13m nay da dan den sir meo m6 va mat can d6i trong ca c5u kinh tS va bang can doi tai san ciia cac c6ng ty va cac ngan hang. Va di6u do khong th^ khic phue dugc mot each nhanh chong. Day la mot ly do chfnh tai sao sy phue h6i cua cac n6n kinh te phat trien Iai cham chap, that thucmg va that nghiep.
NGHIEN Cliu TRUNG OUOC so 1 0 ( 1 3 4 ) - 2 0 1 2 —
Trong luc do, nhung nen ktnh te mai noi, tung dugc xem la dl bi ton thuang, lai co kha nang chong choi ben bi dang ne. Vcri nhu'ng n6 luc doi pho bang chfnh sach tibn te va tai khoa ch6ng lai su sut giam thuang mai, nhieu nuac nhu Trung Qu6c, An Do, Brazil vln duy tri dugc tang truang kinh tl.
Nhung nhirng phan ung mang tfnh doi pho nay khong the keo dai mai. Neu mo hinh hien nay dugc duy tri, nen kinh te toan cau sS bien doi mai mai. Chua den mot thap ky nOa, cac nuac dang phat trien se dong gop han 50% vao GDP toan cau.
Tuang lai ciia tang truang kinh te toan cau se chiu anh huang rat nhilu tu nhiJng quoc gia Ion, dac biet la Trung Quoc. Da co rat nhieu nghien cuu va thao luan ve dgng lire cho toe dp t5ng truang cao ciia hai quoc gia nay cung nhu nh&ng chfnh sach trong nuac va ca hpi ben ngoai tao ra sy tang truang do.
Khi Trung Quoc Icm manh, quy mo ciia hg se thuc day tang trudng toan c3u vi ph^n dong gop cua hp vao GDP toan c3u gia tang.
Cu6i cijng, klii thu nhap tang len va ti6m tien
Lg KIM SA
den thu nh^p ciia cSc nude phdt triln thi c6 hai dieu xSy ra dong thdi. Thir nhdt, Trung Quoc sg trd thanh nin kinh te Idn nh^t thi gidi vS t6c dp tang trudng s5 giim. Liic d6 tang Irudng todn c^u cung gidm vd mgt lugng Idn ngudi tren the gidi s§ song d cdc nude phdt trien.
Nhin l^i ljch sir, cdc nude phdt trien thudng khong ldng trudng d miic 6-10% moi nam.
Mpt trong nhiJng cau hdi thudng dugc cdc nhd kinh t l d^t ra Id sy phdt triln ctia Trung Quoc dnh hudng tdi nen kinh te the gidi vd cdc nude khdc nhu the ndo, d6ng thdi, Idm thi ndo dl "khi£u vu" vdi ngudi khong lo md khong bj hg dSm len ehdn minh. Ro rang, Trung Quoc Id mgt nen kinh
te Idn, dang phdt triln, vd sS tiep tyc tdng trudng vd tSng trudng ciia Trung Qu6c cd dnh hudng den cdc nude khdc qua nhOng giao djch quoc te.
Ve tdng trudng, Trung Quoc cd t6c d$
cao, d$c bi^t khi so vdi cdc nen kinh te khdc.
Trung Qu6c ddng gdp gan 13% tSng trudng ciia thi gidi, cao thir hai, chi sau MJ. Nhimg dy dodn tdng trudng GDP den ndm 2020 dugc dya tr£n nhflng gid djnh ve ndng suat vd dau vdo dugc tfnh todn k^ ludng. Theo d6, Trung Qu6c sS tang trudng d miic 6,6%
trong giai doan 2005-2020, con so khiem ton so vdi th^p ky trudc dd nhung vln sS cao nhat thi gidi.
Nen kinh td
Tmng Quoc AnOd My Nhit Ban Di?c Brazil Toin cau
BAng 1 So sinh Trung Quoc vo'i T^ id trong GDP toin cau
($vity gii nam 2004) 2004
2,4 1,7 28,4 11,2 6,6 1,5 100
2020 7,9 2,4 28,5 8,8 5,4 1,5 100
mpt so quoc TJ Id phit tridn thuc trung
binh hing nam (%) 1995-2004
9,1 6,1 3,3 1,2 1,5 2,4 3,0
2005-20 6,6 5,5 3,2 1,6 1,9 3,6 3,2
>ia khac Ddng gdp tn
tang Irucm 1995-2004
12,8 3,2 33,1 5,3 3,0 1,5 100
jng binh cho g toin cau
2005-2020 15,8 4,1 28,6 4,6 3,3 1,7 100 Ngudn: Bang i . l . trong Winters A. and Shahid Yusuf (2007).
Vdi dan so Idn nhat the gidi, tren 1,3 ty ngudi, Trung Quoc da trd thanh mgt nude Idn va cd dnh hudng trong nen kinh t l todn cau trong khi muc thu nhap tren dau ngudi cdn tuang doi thap. Hien nay, Trung Qudc cd sure dnh hudng ngdy cang tdng den rat nhieu ITnh vuc nhu gia ca vd tieu thu luang thuc, nang lugng va cdc tai nguyen thien nhien khac, khoi lugng va ket cdu thuang mai, cac ddng von.
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Vai trd ciia Trung Quoc vdi tu each la nude Idn rat khac so vdi thdi k)f My trd thdnh cudng quoc vdo cuoi the ky 19 va 20, khi ma cdc nude dang phat trien luc do hau hit Id cac nude ngh^o vd gdn nhu khong co ddng gdp vdo GDP toan cau. Nhimg ngay nay, vdi tu cdch la nude dang phat trien, Trung Qu6c dd trd thanh mgt ngudi choi quan trgng. Chinh su chuyen doi nay cho thdy nhiJng ke hoach tdng trudng va phat NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QU6c s ^ 10(134) - 2012
Thfnfi, suy bay diiu chinh?..
trien cua Trung Qudc s8 dupe uu ti8n, mgt phdn do vdn la sy thach thu'C SS khong dan gian cho vi6c vira 6n dinh xd hgi va phdt triln trong nude, vija tilp nhan nhiJng trach nhiem toan cau mdi, rdi hOi nhap vd can bang nhirng trdeh nhiem dd vdi todn bp ke hoach phat trien trong nude.
Khi Trung Qu6c trd nSn gidu e6 han thi nhiJng gi giiip hp tang trudng trong giai doan trudc se trd nen bao hda. Chinh vi v^iy, nhieu nghien ciiu thyc nghiem khdc eung cho thay tir nay den ndm 2020, tdc dp tang trudng ciia Trung Quoc se cham lai, khong cao nhu giai dogn trudc dd.
Bang 2. Trien vpng tSng tru-fing ciia Trung Quoc
Tang tnrcmg GDP tidm nang Tang trudng vide l i m Tang t n A i g nang suat lao ddng Tang tn?clng TFP
T f l d d a u t u / G D P
1995-2009 9,6 1,0 8,6 2,7 37,3
2010-2015 8,4 0,2 8,2 2,3
2016-2020 7,0 -0,5 ' 7,5
2,3 I 41,1 j 39,1 Ngudn: Louis Kuijs (2009)
2. " T h i n h " va "Suy": hai quan diem ve trien vpng Trung Quoc
Nhu trong bang 2, Louis Kuijs da nghien cuu kinh te vT mo cua Trung Quoc giai doan 2010-2020 qua cd hai khfa canh sdn xuat (phfa cung) va chi tieu (phfa cau). Su dung khung phan tich hach todn tang trudng, ket qud ciia nghien ciru cho thay ca lyc lugng lao dpng ldn TFP cua Trung Qu6c cung nhu tang trudng GDP se cham lai trong thap ky tdi mac dii dp sdu tai chfnh khd ldn.
Cd kha nhilu nghien ciru thyc nghi6m vl tang trudng ciia Trung Qudc din nam 2020 va c6 kit qua tuang tu nhu nghien ciiu tren"\ Cac nghien curu nay thudng sii dung md hinh djnh Iugng, vdi nhiJng gia thuylt khac nhau de dua ra cdc kich ban tang trudng cua Trung Quoc. Tuy theo cac gia djnh dugc dua ra md cac nghien ciru thudng CO kit qua khac nhau ve t6c dp tang trudng kinh t l ciia Trung Qu6c trong cac giai doan NGHIEN Cliu TRUNG QUfl'C so 10(134) - 2012 —
den ndm 2020. Mac dii khac nhau ve gia trj tuyet doi nhung cac con s6 cd nhirng diem chung (cho dii so sanh cac giai doan khac nhau), toe dp ciia giai doan sat ndm 2020, luon thap han giai doan trudc dd.
Cdi dep va sy hdp ddn cua cac con so thudng lam ngudi ta quen mdt tinh thyc te.
Bp dtr lieu ciia Maddison, nha lich sir kinh tl, dd cho ring cdc s6 lieu thong ke cua Trung Qu6c thudng bi thii phdng'^*. Tuy nhiSn, ddy la nhiing tu duy thyc chiing chir khSng phai dy bdo. Nhihig tfnh todn tuang doi va nhiJng phan tich khong tdp trung vao djnh lugng hda tuang lai cung cho th^y sy suy giam tat yeu ve toe dg tdng trudng ciia nen kinh te Trung Quoc trong giai do^n tdi.
Ph^n nay ciia bai viit se neu ra hai quan dilm vl sy phdt triln ciia Trung Quoc.
Nhdm quan dilm thii nhdt cho rdng Trung Quoc se "Thinh" vd trd thanh m^t "Sieu cudng tii ylu" nhu each ggi cOa Arvind
Subranianian (2011). Nh6m thir hai cho rdng Trung Quoc sC "Suy" vd trd thdnh m^t
"Vuang quoc lung chimg" nhu cdch nhin cua Salvatore Babornes (2011). Diem thii vj ciia hai nhdm quan diem "iliinli" va "suy"
ciia Trung Quoc la cd hai deu sii dyng mau so chung Id My dc soi chieu sy pluil trien ciia Trung Quoc.
Arvind Subranianian (2011) xem x^t Trung Quoc qua Iang kinh thong trj kinh te.
Su thong trj ve kinh te Id khd ndng ciia mpt nude sir dung cac bi^n pliap kinh tc nham bugc cac nude khac phai lam nhimg gl ma minh mu6n hay nham ngSn ch^n hp bupc nude d6 phai lam nhu'ng gi ma nude dd khong muon. Dieu nay bao gom nhieu yeu to trong dd cd 3 yeu td then chdt: GDP cua mpt nude, thuang mai ciia nude d6 (dugc tinh bang tong hdng hoa xuat va nhap khau cua nude d6), va mirc dp ma nude do lam chCi ng ciia phan cdn Iai eua the gidi.
"Chi so thdng tri" bao gom 3 yeu td tren dugc tinh toan bdng each quay trd lai nam 1870 (tap trung vao vi the kinh te ciia Anh va My khi dd) va dy doan chi so nay din nam 2030 (tap trung vao vi the cua My va cua Trung Qudc khi dd). Nhirng dy doan nay dya tren nhtrng gia dinh tuang doi de ddt ve sy phdt triln trong tuong lai ciia Trung Qudc, nghTa la nhin nhdn rdng Trung Qudc phai doi mat vdi cac thach thiic Idn nghiem trpng d phfa trudc. Trudc hit, dan sd Trung Qudc se bat dau gid di trong thap ky tdi. Vd nen kinh te nude nay bi meo md nghiem trgng d mgt sd khia canh: von cho vay vdi lai suat qua re da ddn din vice ddu tu qua mirc, ty gid hoi dodi dugc dinh gia thdp, dieu da ddn den sy phat trien qua miic hang xuat khau, vd ndng lugng dugc bao cap dan den viec sir dung thieu hieu qud va gdy d nhiem moi trudng. Do sua chtra nhiJng sy meo md
ndy nen tdng trudng ciia Trung Quoc sS chgm lgi mgi cdch ddng ke: nd s2 d miic Irung binh 7%/ndm trong 20 ndm tdi, so vdi gSn 11% ma nude ndy d^t dugc trong th|p ky vira qua.
So sdnh vdi My. Trung Quoc, c6 ddn s6 nhieu gap 4 lan dan so My, se la nen kinh tl ldn han chi can mire song trung binh ciia nude ndy (tinh theo GDP binh quan dau ngudi) vugt qua 1/4 miie song trung binh ciia My. Khi Trung Quoe tilp tuc phdt triln, khodng cdch ndy sc chi rpng them. Mgt nude My Iroi day c6 thi c6 khd ndng lam cham Iai lien Irinh dd, nhung nude nay se khdng the ngan ehdn nd. Vi?c tdng trudng 3,5%, thay vi 2,5%, trong 20 ndm tdi cd the thuc ddy thanh tich kinh le, su dn dinh xa hgi, vd tinh than quoc gia ciia My. Nhung nude nay se khong tao dugc mgt sy khdc biet Idn trong vj thi ciia minh so vdi Trung Qudc trudc mpt mirc tang trudng chang han 7% d do.
Tuy nhien, Salvatore Babornes (2011) lai xem ddy la mpt sy thoi phong qud muc va cho rdng mac dii cdc du doan con nhieu khac biet, nhung ciing chia se quan diem Id Trung Quoc se dat tdc dp tdng trudng nhanh - neu khong, cung nhanh nhu nd da timg - vd rdng ty le tang trudng nay se tiep tuc trong hang chyc ndm. Nhimg dy bao nay ddng thdi cung than trpng v l tuang lai gan vd lac quan ve tuang lai xa. Bdng sy triing hgp ngdu nhien hay CO y, nhtrng dy doan ndi tren la nhiJng phuang phap ngoai suy co chimg myc dya tren cdc xu thi hi?n t^i.
Tren thyc te, nen kinh t l Trung Quoc dang phdt triln nhanh chdng, tir chii yeu song nhd nong nghiep tiln len cong nghiep ndng, roi phat trien cac nganh dien tii tdn tiln, va chuyen hudng vao kinh te dich vu.
Tai mgt thdi diem nao dd trong tuong lai, co le trong tuang lai khong xa ldm, mirc tang
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. NGHIEN Cliu IRUNG QUDC so 10(134) - 2012Thjnh, suy hay diiu chinh?.,.
trudng vugt trgi eiia Trung Qu6c se chung lai, va sy tdng trudng kinh t l cua nude ndy se giam tdc, trd v6 cac miic tdng trudng nhu da tirng trdi qua bdi nhung nude cd thi so sdnh dugc.
Noi each khdc, sy tang trudng kinh tl 6 gt ciia Trung Qudc trong hai thdp nien vira qua khdng mang lai y nghla gi han - va cd Ie sy tdng trudng ndy con thap han nhilu - so vdi vi trf trudc day ciia Trung Quoc d thdi dilm nam 1870 (ve phuang dien ngang gia siic mua). NhiJng ngudi lac quan se thay dieu nay nhu la bdng chiing them n&a ve tiem ndng ciia Trung Quoc: ileu Trung Quoc chi d miic do nhu nam 1870 thi vdn con nhieu khd nang cho sy tdng trudng han nu-a. Nhung nhtrng ngudi bi quan cd thi nhdn thay rang neu Trung Quoc ed the rdt khdi vi trf ciia nam 1870, thi quic gia nay rdt co thi rai vdo suy thodi mpt ldn nCi'a.
3. Chuydn doi md hinh tang tru'dng Trung Quoc da bat dau mpt qud trinh chuyen doi khd khdn, vira phai theo duoi md hinh tang trudng hgp ly, vira phdi thay d6i each van hdnh. Chuyen doi ve chinh tri can phai song hdnh vdi chuyen doi trong kinh te, va hai qud trinh nay co quan he tuong tac vdi nhau theo nhiJng dang thirc phiic tap.
Cdc vdn d l chinh tri Id rat quan trpng, nhung bdn than qua trinh chuyin ddi kinh t l cung hit siic khd khan. Trung Quoc da dat din cuoi thdi kj' ma cac nha kinh t l ggi la
"tang trudng cang thdng", vdi ngudn cung lao dpng vd vln gia tang; va nay phai hudng ve "tang trudng manh me" dya tren viec cdi thien ky ndng, ky thuat. Dilu nay din din tdc dp tang trudng se giam hdn so vdi ty le trung binh 10%/nam trong sudt ba thap ky qua. Cac ylu td gay phirc tap cho qua trinh chuyin doi Id dau tu qua cao va su le thupc qua nhieu vao dau tu.
Ve md hinh phat trien, theo md hinh Arthur Lewis thi Trung Quoc se khdng c6n Id mOt dat nude du thira lao dgng. Thu nhdp d mirc chi dii dn ciia lao dpng nong thon d6ng gdp vdo vi?c duy tri luang bong trong cdc nganh tan tiln d miic thap, giiip cdc nganh ndy thu dugc rat nhilu Igi nhuan. Khi cac mdn lgi tiic nay dugc tai dau tu, thi ty le tdng trudng trong cac nganh hi?n dai va cho nen kinh te n6i chung tang ISn cao. Nhung din mpt 16c ndo d6, lao dgng ndng nghiep trd nen hiem hoi, khien gid thdnh trong cdc ITnh vyc hien dai tdng len.
35 ndm trudc, Trung Quoc la dat nude du thira lao dpng. Nhung nay da khdc khi nen kinh te phat trien gap 20 lan, han phdn niia dan so song d do thi, trong khi ty le sinh sdn dang ha thdp. Tinh trang thilu hut lao dpng dugc nhan thdy trudc tien tai viing duyen hdi ndm 2004, da lan rpng tren toan qudc. Nam 2011, cac cong ty san xuat gap khd khan chua tirng thay trong viec tuySn dung", khien luang tang va Igi nhuan sut gidm.
Hien nay, Trung Qudc da tiln din nga re ma Lewis da bao trudc. Mgt trong nhung hau qua la ty le vdn ddu tu/lao dgng tang nhanh, con lgi nhuan tir ddng v6n giam.
Trong khi dd, tang trudng ben vCrng can phai dya tren viec gia tang tdng hieu suat, chii khdng phdi Id tang ti le von/lao dpng. Kho khan trong viec chuyen sang tdng trudng dua tren tien bp ky thuat, la mpt trong nhu'ng nguyen nhdn khiln nhilu nude da bi lot vao
"bdy thu nhap trung binh". Trung Qudc, hi8n Id nude cd thu nhdp trung binh, mudn trd thanh quoc gia thu nhap cao tir nay cho din nam 2030, Trung Qudc can co nhtrng cai each sau sac, da dugc neu ra trong ban bdo cao chung ciia Ngan hang The gidi va Trung tdm Nghi8n cuu Phat trien ciia Qudc vu vien Trung Quoc. Khi di theo hudng nay, kinh te Trung Quoc c6 the bj giam siit ndng ne'"'*.
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 10(134) - 2012
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T r u n g Q u o c 2030 - h u d n g t d i m ^ t xa h d i hl6n d a i , hh\ h d a , s ^ n g too vh t h u n h ^ p cao Dudi bdt ky tigu chf ndo, Trung Qu5c dd rdt Ihdnh cOng vS phdt tridn kinh t€ trong vdng hOn 30 ndm qua, ki tir cu^c cdi cdch ndm 1978. V6I mirc tdng trudng tning btnh trSn 10% mfii ndm, Tnjng Qufic dd trd thdnh qu6c gia xudt kh^u ldn nhdt IhS gidi vd Id qu6c gia sdn xudt cOng nghidp ldn nhdt, vugt qua Nhdt Bdn trd thdnh ndn kinh [^ Idn thir 2 th6 gidi, cht sau My. Hon 500 tridu ngudi Trung Qu6c thodt kh6i cdnh nghdo ddi. Cho dCi ti5c dO tdng trudng c6 gidm xufing th] trong mdt vdi thdp ky tdi, Trung Qutfc hodn todn cd khd ndng trd thdnh mdt n6n kinh l6 Idn nhdt Vn6 gidi, cho dii thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngudi vdn cdn thdp so vdi tidu chi cOa mdt nude phdt tri^n.
Tuy nhidn, lidu Tnjng Qudc sd tl^p tuc giO' duoc tdc dO tdng tn/dng nhu trudc hay xu hudng chdm lai se ti^p tuc kdo ddi? Vd lidu Tmng Qufic cd thi duy tri mirc tdng trirdng cao md khdng Idm xdo trdn mdi tnidng qudc td vd xd hdi ciia nude ndy.
Mac dii Tmng Qudc cd nhidu tidm ndng 6$ trd thdnh m^t ndn kinh td cd thu nhdp cao nhung khdng d5 ddng Idm ducn; didu ndy vi nhOng co hdi vd thdch thirc gdn vdi m^t chi^n li/gc phdt tri^n m(n. Ngdn hdng th^ gidi (WB) da dua ra nhihig khuydn nghj v6 vide tdi cdu tnic ndn kinh t6 theo hudng xdc djnh lai vai trd cOa chfnh phQ. tdi co cau khu vLfc doanh nghidp nhd nude vd hd thdng ngdn hdng, phdt tridn khu vuc tu nhdn, thiic diy canh tranh vd cai cdch hon nite ve dat dai vd lao ddng bdi vl Tmng Qudc dang d vdo ngudng cOa sir phdt tridn vd can kidt tidm nang ciia mO hinh cQ. WB cung cho rang trong mdt vdi thap k? tdi, Trung Qudc se gitr vi trf then chdt trong ndn kinh le toan cau do do se can chii ddng trong vide thiic day trao ddl thuong mai vd dau tu.
Trong bdo cdo 'Tmng Qudc nam 2030' thi nude ndy cd thd sd phdi ddi mat vdi mdt cudc khung hoang nghidm trgng, tni khi nhd nude giam "cd phdn" cua minh trong ndn kinh td. Trong 10 nam qua, su tham gia dia thdnh phan kinh te nhd nude trong nSn kinh td cCia Tmng Qudc - n^n kinh tg Idn thiJ hai trdn the gidi - da lang Idn dang kd. Tuy nhl6n, chfnh didu ndy da kidm chd sir tang trudng GDP do su qudn ly quan lidu ciia cdc doanh nghidp nhd nude khdng mang lai hidu qua. Kdt qua Id cdc van dd nghidm trgng da x i y ra trong ngdnh ngdn hdng Tmng Qudc vd cdc linh viic khdc. Ngdn hdng thd gidl cOng cdnh bdo rdng ndu tfnh ddn vj trf ciia Tmng Qudc trong kinh td thd gidi, thi nhOng bat dn d ddt nude ndy cd thd kfch hoat cudc khiing hoang todn cau.
Mac dii dugc uu dai dac blfit nhung cdc tap dodn nhd nude khdng phai Id nhOng "ngdi sao sdng' trang ndn kinh td dang biing nd ciia Trung Qudc. Trong thdp ky qua, nhidu doanh nghidp nhd nude dd ndng cao chdt lugng cdng viec, nhung mti-c dd Igi nhudn ciia hg vdn cdn thua xa cdc cdng ty tu nhdn.
WB khd bi quan khi nhdn dinh tang tmdng kinh td d Trung Qudc dang bj de dga dnh hudng tdi tfnh bdn vOng todn didn ciia md hinh kinh td Trung Qudc. Tuy nhidn, trong ngdn han sd khdng cd didu gl bi tham xdy ra vdi ndn kinh td Tmng Qudc. Hlfin tai, cdc ch? s6 kinh td vT md co bdn cho thdy tinh hinh kinh td hidn nay 6 Tmng Qudc vd CO ban Id thudn lgi. Tuy nhien, didu ndy khdng Idm gidm mirc dd r^i ro kinh td ddl vdi Tmng Qudc trong tuong lat dai vd dat cho nd nhidm vu cap bdch phdi chuydn ddi ta hinh thirc kinh td phdt tridn mfl rdng thdnh htnh thiic kinh td phat tridn nhanh chdng. Can phdi dua cdc tap dodn nhd nude vdo mdi tmdng canh tranh Ihoc su vd budc phai lam vide nhu cdc doanh nghidp thuong mai thdng thirdng. Ndu khdng gidi quydt van dd ndy trong nhtTng nam tdi, Trung Qudc se phai qudn dl vai trd dan dau kinh td todn cdu.
- j g NGHIEN Cliu TRUNG QUOC so 9 ( 1 3 3 ) - 2 0 1 2
Thinh, suy hay diiu chinh?...
4, Th^ch thux; v^ ca cau
Thu nhap binh quan d4u ngudi ciia Trung Qudc la han 3.500 USD theo gid hi?n hdnh vd khoang gap doi theo siic mua. Trung Quoc da cd nhung phan iing nhanh ehdng vd linh ho?it vdi cudc khiing hodng tdi chfnh toan cdu bang gdi kfch thich trong nude ehilm 9% GDP trong 2 nam 2008-2009. Goi kich thich nay tap trung vao dau tu, nh^t Id ca sd ha tang. D6ng thdi, Trung Qu6e da ndi long tin dung va sii dung ngu6n dy trtr khong Id de vugt qua con bao md kh6ng lam cho ddng tien mat gia ma vdn gitJ dugc mirc tang trudng tuang ddi cao.
Tuy nhien, cac gdi kfch thfch khdng phai la bien phap vTnh ciiu ma chi la nhiJng phan ling khan cap. Do dd, cdc nha quan sat cho rang Trung Qudc dang dung trude hai vdn de. Mdi Id trd ve each cu, tire la chien luge phat trien ciia 30 nam trudc, chii trpng dau tu va xuat khau hang tham dung lao dpng.
Nhiing chinh sach nay da timg rat hieu qua, nhung nay da den nguong va khdng cdn nhilu tac dung. Thir hai la khd ndng chlng chgi ciia nin kinh t l trudc nhiing thach thirc suy thodi ngdn han va trung han. Sy tang trudng ciia Trung Qudc la dya vdo kha nang hgc hdi nhanh chdng, su hd trg va thiic ddy lien tuc thay ddi va phuang thiic giai quylt van de thuc tien. Tuy nhiSn, dilu nay dang giam di khi Trung Qudc phat triln va rui ro tdng len.
Trung Qudc dang budc vao mot thdi ky phiic tap ma se tao nSn mdng cho con dudng di din dia vi nude phat triln trong vai thap
nien tdi. Chfnh vi v$y, nhtrng thdch thirc tdi cdn bdng dang dien ra song song vd lien quan vdi nhau. R5 rdng, nhu cau tdi ca eau Idn cho ed kinh t l vT m6 lan vi mo khi ehuyen thdnh nude cd miic thu nhdp trung binh cao Id hi?n hiiu. Trong qud trinh nay, mirc thu nhap va tieu diing ciia hp gia dinh cao han va tang Idp trung luu md rpng nhanh chdng.
Ben canh dd, trong vi the quoc te, Trung Quoc cung dang d the dpc dao. Tdng trudng k6o dai da giiip Trung Quoc cd the cd tac dpng quan trgng den he thong todn cdu nhung van ed mirc thu nhap dau ngudi rdt thap so vdi bat ky nude nao di trudc. "Trach nhiem todn cdu" vi the chat them gdnh nang vao kl hoach tang trudng va phat triln trong nude vdn da phiic tap d Trung Quoc. Hau hit eae qu6c gia tren thi gidi khdng vudng vao van de nay nen cd the tap trung han vao eac ke hoach trong nude. Nhu vay, Trung Quoc se phai can bang nhtJng uu tien trong nude va qu6e te ma khong eo bat cir kinh nghiem ljch sir nao dan dat.
Vdi thu nhap binh quan ddu ngudi dang tang len, nhitng phan khue do thi quan trpng eiia nin kinh t l Trung Qudc dang d vao giai doan vugt qua miie thu nhap trung binh. Tuy nhien, van eon phan ldn dan sd vd khu vuc vdn dang bi giam giii' trong "giai doan Lewis". Day la mpt thdi ky nhilu thach thiic, thudng dugc bilt den nhu "bay thu nhap trung binh" ma nhieu qude gia da mat di da tang trudng va trai qua mpt su ngimg tre eua
NGHIEN Cliu TRUNG QUOC so 10(134) - 2012
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chuyin doi ea eau, d ca cap nen kinh te lan nganh kinh te.
5. Nhu'ng ky vgng vii hiim y Tir nhu'ng nh^n dinh tren cho thay Trung Quoc hi?n nay dang phai doi m^t vdi nhieu van dl can giai quylt, trong dd cd sy chuyin doi md hinh, va tdng trudng kinh t l se ch§m lai dang k l . Hang logt cac van dl xa hgi 190 ra sire ep Irong qua trinh phat trien tiep theo ciia Trung Quoc. Dilu dd cung dd tgo ra nhiJng y kiln trai chieu nhau ve luang lai ciia Trung Quoc.
Nhtrng nha quan sat ve Trung Quoe kien tri quan dilm rdng dat nude nay dang doi mat vdi mpt cupe khiing hoang todn dien va se phai sup dd nhu Gordon G. Chang (2012), tac gia ciia "•S'w- sup dd sdp ldi ciia Trung Quoc", hay Minxin Pei (2012) vl ''Sir ket thiic ciia phep mdu Trung Qudc" vi thay qua nhieu mau thuan ndi tai trong mo hinh Trung Qude de ed the ton tai.
Nguge lai, Henry Kissinger va Martin Jacques (2009), tac gia cuon "Kiii Trung Qudc tlidng trj ihe gidC lai eho rang Trung Quoe van dang d trong tinh trang tot. Tham ehi nha triet hpe Daniel A. Bell cdn lac quan ca nggi md hinh Trung Quoc tren td New York Times va cac nai khae la mot md hinh dn dinh va hi6u qua dudi sy dan ddt ciia cac gia trj Nho giao. Mdi ngudi nhin mpt each nhung ve ca ban Trung Qudc van virng vang va cdn tdt han so vdi nhilu chfnh phu khac.
Vay ai diing? Cd le la ea hai, ttiy each nhin moi ngudi.
12
Khdng the dy dodn dugc tuang lai nhung chung ta cd the nhin l^i ljch sir. Vao thiip nien 1790. khi Bd tudc George Macartney tdi Trung Qu6c nhdm thilt i^p quan hp ngo^i giao day dii gitJa Anh vd trieu dai nhd Thanh vdo thgp nifin 1790 dd dy dodn rdng Trung Qu6c nhu m^t chile tdu s5 bj tan v5 khi dng cdn song, vl g3 dd myc vd cdc tuyin dudng phfa trudc Id qud nguy hilm. Nhung dng khdng bao gid nhin thdy sy suy tan cua Trung Quoe nhu ong dd dy dodn. Trieu dai nhd Thanh k^o ddi tir ndm 1644, tilp tuc tin tgi han mgt the ky niia din nSm 1912 sau khi dng mat nam 1806.
Dy dodn sal ciia Macartney eho thay mpt vien cdnh doi vdi cac dy dodn tuang ty ve sy suy tdn cua Trung Quoc. M?ic dii dng khdng thuc sy sai v l nhihig thach thirc md trilu dai nhd Thanh liic dd phai ddi mdt ve nan tham nhung chinh tri va khd ndng noi loan ciia ngudi dan. Hon ntta, diing la trieu dai nha Thanh da syp dd, nhung chi sau khi song them nhieu the he con chdu sau ndy ciia ong.
Cd the ndi, nhu'ng thach thirc ciia Trung Quoc hi^n nay cd nhiing diem gidng nhiJng thdch thirc ma trieu d^i nha Thanh dd phai doi mdt. Cdc cu^c khiing hoang noi tiep nhau bao gom cac cugc bgo loan trong nude, tir cac cugc ndi loan quy md nhd trong nude din cugc noi day tdn giao Idn.
Trudng hgp nha Thanh la mdt ldi nhdc nhd cua ljch sur r3ng mgt so chinh phii d Trung Qu6c da cd the keo dai trong nhilu NGHIEN Cliu TRUNG QUdC so 10(134) - 2012
Thinh, suy tiay diiu chinh?...
the he vdi nhOng thach thurc Idn trong va ngodi nude.
Nhu vay, Trung Quoe da timg doi mat vdi nhu'ng thach thirc suy thodi trong qua khii va nhin chung la vdn dat kit qua tot bat chap dy doan eiia nhu'ng ngudi hoai nghi.
Noi each khac, hien tai va trong trung han, se khong cd nhieu thay ddi. Nhung gid day, di ciing vdi nhung dp lyc trong nude la nhtJng thach thiic quoc t l cd y nghTa loan cdu. NhiJng ngudi nhan dinh ve sy sup do ciia Trung Quoc thudng thien l?ch do khdng ua phuang thirc phat trien hien nay ciia nude nay. Dd la do dan sd khdng Id ciia Trung Qude nhung hien nay vdn khong coi trpng tdng trudng thu nhap va ca hdi ciia nhiJng ngudi ngheo, va dudng nhu coi day la tro chai tong khdng, noi each khac, cd ngudi thua, ngudi duge, mpt sd ngudi phai hy sinh eho sy giau cd ciia ngudi khdc.
Mdi thach thiie kinh te - xa hpi cQa mpt quoe gia deu ddi hdi su can thiep sang tao va phi y thiie he eiia nha nude doi vdi thj trudng. Trung Quoe co ljch sir lau dai trong viec nudi dudng cac lye lugng thi trudng dSng thdi vln dat chiing dudi sy kilm soat, phue vu xa hpi. Trong bdi canh hien nay, Trung Qudc se chap nhan "sy lua ehpn khong CO lya chpn", do la kit hgp gitJa "con rin" ciia nin kinh t l thi trudng vdi "con nhim" eiia lich six truyin thdng dk tilp tuc phat triln mpt each dn dinh, gan kit xa hpi.
Nhu trong cudn sach "Vi sao cdc qudc gia thdt bgi", Daron Acemoglu va James A.
Robinson (2012) da dua ra 10 ly do khiln cho cdc nhd nude sup do vdi 10 trudng hgp vi dg ciia cde quoc gia hien nay. N I U dpc kj, c6 ihl thay cd 10 Iy do nay deu tilm tdng d Trung Quoe. Tuy nhiSn, dat nude ndy khong ndm trong danh sdch cdc quoc gia s2 that bai.
CHU THICH:
* Bii viit till hi§n quan dilm ciia rieng tdc gia, khong phdi quan diem cua cdc tl chirc lifin quan.
(1) He Jianwu, Li Shangton, Sandra Polaski (2007): "China's Economic Prospects, 2006-2020".
Carnegie Papers; Xiaolu Wang, Gang Fan, Peng Lieu (2007). "Pattern and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth towards 2020". NERI-China Working Paper; Shangton Li, Fan Zhai (1995).
"Prospects for China's Economic Development in the Next 20 Years". Development Research Center, The State Council P.R. China; Carsten n. Holz (2006). "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025:
What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tommorow". Center on China' Transnational Relations. Working Paper No. 8. The Hongkong University of Science and Technology;
Qing Wang, Steven Zhang, Ernest Ho (2010).
"Chinese Economy Through 2020". Morgan Stanly Biu Paper. Morgan Stanley.
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(2) Xem them Maddison A (1998). Chinese Economic Performnacn in the Long Run, OECD, Paris; Maddison (2001). The World Economy:
Historical statistics, OECD, Paris. Maddison Angus and Harry X.
TAI LifiU THAM K K A O
1. Arvind Subramanian (2011). "The Inevitable Superpower: Why China's Dominance Is a Sure Thing". Foreign Affairs, September/October.
2. Carsten A. Holz (2006). "China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tommorow". Center on China' Transnational Relations. Working Paper No. 8. The Hongkong University of Science and Technology.
3. Center for Global Affairs (2009). "China 2020". New York University. No. 3.
4. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (2012). Why Nations Fail. Crown Publisher.
5. Gordon G. Chang (2001). "The Coming Collapse of China". Cato Institution.
6. He Jianwu, Li Shangton, Sandra Polaski (2007). "China's Economic Prospects, 2006- 2020". Carnegie Papers.
7. IMF, The World Economic Outlook i20\2) 8. Li Minqi (2011), "The Rise of the Working Class and the Future of the Chinese Revolution", Monthly Review, vol.63. No 2, June.
9. Louis Kuijs (2009) "China Through 2020 - A Macroeconomic Scenario". World Bank China Office, Research Working Paper No.9.
10. Maddison Angus (1998). Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run. OECD, Paris.
11. Maddison Angus and Harry X. Wu (2003). "China's Economic Performance: How Fast hd GDP Grown; How Big is It Compared wiih the USA?"
12. Qing Wang, Slcven Zhang, Ernest Ho (2010). "Chinese Economy Through 2020".
Morgan Stanly Biu Paper. Morgan Stanley.
13. Robert W. Fogel (2006). Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives. NBER Working Paper No. 12122, March
14. Salvatore Babones (2011) "The Middling Kingdom". Foreign Affairs. September/October.
15. Shangton Li, Fan Zhai (1995). "Prospects for China's Economic Development in the Next 20 Years". Development Research Center, The State Council P.R. China.
16. Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil (2010).
"The Worid Order in 2050". Carnegie Endowment for Intemational Peace, April.
17. Winters A. and Shahid Yusuf (2007).
Dance with Giants, World Bank and IPS.
18. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects (2012)
19. Worid Bank (2012). China 2030:
Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society. Washington DC.
20. Xiaolu Wang, Gang Fan, Peng Lieu (2007). "Pattern and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth towards 2020". NERl-China Working Paper
. NGKllN Cliu TRUNG QUfiC so 10(134) - 2012
