KINH T€ THG GIOI 2011 Vfl Tfil€N VONG 2
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Tong quan kinh te the gioi 2011 va trien vong 2012
PGS.TS. Le Quoc Hgi, Dang Tran Thudng Dgi hpc Kinh te Quoc ddn
Ndm 2011 la ndm kinh te the giai trdi qua nhieu bien dpng vd bdt on. Kinh te the gioi vdn chua thodt khoi thdi ky hgu khung hodng vd suy thodi md buac vdo mpt giai dogn kho khdn hem vdi nhieu thdch thitc han. Cupc khung hodng np cong vd thdm hut ngdn sdch tgi chdu Au dd de dga su ton vong cua lien minh tien tp chdu Au - lien minh tien t? ddu tien vd duy nhdt the gidi.
A^, nen kinh te hdng ddu the gidi, ldn ddu tien trong Ijch sit trdi phieu quoc gia ndy bi hg bgc tin nhiem. Tgi chdu A, lgm phdt vdn Id vdn de noi cpm trong ndm 2011. Ben cgnh do, nhitng bdt on chinh tri tgi khu vuc Trung Dong vd Bac Phi, thdm hog dpng ddt vd song thdn tgi Nhat Bdn, trdn lut lich sir tgi Thdi Lan khien cho sir phuc hoi kinh te the gi&i tra nen mong manh hon bao gia het. Bdi viet ndy ddnh gid lgi bite tranh kinh te the giai ndm 2011 vd dua ra trien vgng ndm 2012 dua tren dien bien tinh hinh kinh te trong ndm vd cdc chi so kinh te vi mo ca bdn.
Tix khoa: kinh te the gidi, khdng hoang ng cong, tang trudng, suy thoai.
1. Tong quan kinh te the gioi 2011 thap ky 1960, tuy nhien, goi kich thich kinh te nam Ll. Chinh sdch kinh ti 20\\ dugc nhan djnh la khong du, chi co tac dung XT- om 1 ' " 1 • u .t^ 1' 4-' .^u- •'• ' han che. Hon nira no con cho thay nen kinh te so Nam 2011 cac nen kinh te Ion tren the giai ap • , , •' ...
J , u' u ' u 1 • u .^- 1 u' u u~ .*-• mot the eidi dang can dan cac cong cu ho tra hieu dung cac chinh sach kinh te khac nhau nham doi • ° ° • ° • • ;
,• , ,. . . . ..^u' •- ' ' u T- • X*- 1 - qua, cac giai phap chinh sach dudng nhu dang dan pho vai cac thach thuc neng cua minh. Tai My, k e ^ ^ ' , ° * ^ * ^ *= ° tu nam 2007 den nay, Cue dir tru Lien bang (FED) ''^ ^^^•
dp dung chinh sach tien te long trong n6 lire thuc Tiep noi nam 2010, nam 2011 khu virc EU tiSp ddy nhn kinh te va ngan chan da suy thoai. Muc lai tuc doi choi vdi khung hoang ng cong bang cac suit thap ky luc (0-0,25%) vdn dugc duy tri trong chinh sach "that lung bugc bung". Ng cong va tham nam 2011 va dir kign den it nhdt cuoi nam 2014. Goi hut ngan sach nam 2011 diln bien hit sue phuc tap kich thich "Operation Twist" dirge FED cong bo va trd thanh mgt "dai djch" de doa svr ton tai cua lien vao thang 9/2011 tri gia 400 ty USD (tuang duomg minh tien te chau Au. Ban dau la Hy Lap, Ireland, gdn 2,7% GDP) nhim ha thdp lai sudt dai han va B6 Dao Nha va gid la ca nhCrng nen kinh te chu ch6t giup nhn kinh xh phuc h6i. Theo do, FED se ban 400 trong lien minh nhu Phap, Italy, Tay Ban Nha. Mot ty USD trai phi6u ngin ban (dao ban trong vong 3 loat cac goi curu trg dugc Ngan hang trung uong nam trd lai) dh mua 400 ty USD trai philu dai han chau Au (ECB) va Quy tiln te quoc tl (IMF) dua ra (dao ban trong vong 6 - 3 0 nam) bat dau tir thang nhim cuu cac nude Hy Lap, Ireland, Bo Dao Nha 10/2011 va kit thuc vao thang 6/2012. Thirc hifn tranh nguy ca vof ng. Thang 8/2011, ECB da tung ra chuang trinh nay khong co nghTa FED se bam them so tien kha ldn de mua lai trai phieu chinh phu cua tiln vao nen kinh t l nhung se gop phan gia cac ty le Y va Tay Ban Nha, vdi dieu kien cac nude nay phai iai suat dai ban d mure thdp vd kich thfch boat dgng cat giam chi tieu manh me hon. Co the nhan thdy cho vay thi chap, qua do khuyin khich ngudi tieu ring, trudc dp lire ng cong, chinh phu cac nude EU diing, doanh nghiep vay mugn vd chi tieu. Trong thirc thi chinh sach tai khoa thit chat dl dap ung lich <;'> FED da tung dp dung chinh sach nay vao cam kit giam chi tieu cong theo cac goi curu trg.
e INH T6 TH6 GIOI 2011 VR TRI6N VONG 2012
Vugt qua Nhat Ban trd thanh nen kinh tl thur hai the gidi nam 2010, Trung Quoc van dugc xem Id diem sang cua kinh tl the gidi nam 2011 du c6 nhijng dau hi?u M?II kinh tc nay dang chirng Igi.
Dien bien dang chu y vao thdi diem cuoi nam 2011 khi Ngan hang trung uong Trung Quoc lan dau tien ha ty 1? dyr trCr bat bugc sau hai nam th^rc hifn chinh sach tien tf that ch(U. Dieu nay cho thay chinh phu Trung Quoc da bat dau quan ngai vifc duy tri chinh sach that chgt se lam hgn che toe dp tang trudng.
1.2. Tdng trudng kinh te
khu vyc ndy chdm Igi, chi dat 1,7% nam 2011 so vdi 3,6% nam 2010. Tang trudng tai khu v^rc Nam A cung chgm Igi dgt muc 6,6%, phdn dnh s\r giam sut mgnh toe dg tang trudng cua An Dp vao nura cuoi nam 2011. Khu vgc Dong A va Thai Binh Duang, do anh hudng trgn lut ijch sir tgi Thai Lan va khung hoang ng d chau Au c6 mure tang trudng (8,2%) chgm han so vdi nam 2010 (9,7%). Tren binh difn chung tang trudng kinh tc thi gidi nam 2011 cham lai so vdi nam 2010.
Nhom cac nude phat trien de nhan thay la diem Bang 1: Tang trirong kinh te toan cau va mgt so khu vyc (%)
Khu vi^c To^n tM g\6\
Cdc nirdc phdt trien Cdc nude dang phdt trien;
- Dong A vd Thdi Binh Duong Dong Au vd Trung A
Chau My Latinh va Caribe Trung Dong va Bdc Phi Nam A
Can Sahara chau Phi
2009 -2,3 -3,7 2,0 7,5 -6,5 -2,2 4,0 6,1 2,0
2010 4,1 3,0 7.3 9,7 5,2 6,0 3,6 9,1 4.8
U'6c2011 2,7
1,6 6,0 8,2 5,3 4,2 1,7 6,6 4,9
A'guun: Ngdn hdng the giai Tang trudng kinh te toan cau nam 2011 udc dat
2,7%, thap ban nhieu so mure tang trudng 4,1% cua nam 2010. Nhom cac nude dang phat trien van dan dau toe do tang trudng kinh te vdi muc 6%, cao gap 3,75 lan so vdi toe do tang trudng cua nhom cac nude phat trien (1,6%). Tuy nhien so vdi nam 2010 toe do tang trudng cua nhom cac nude dang phat trien nam 2011 cham han. Dong A va Thai Binh Duang tiep noi nam 2010 la dilm sang nhat trong hue tranh tang trudng kinh tl the gidi vdi muc tang trudng 8,2%. Ke den la khu vyc Nam A, Au va Trung A. NhCrng bat on chinh tri tai khu virc Trung Dong va Bac Phi da lam gian dogn cac hogt dpng kinh te cung vdi nhCrng dieu kifn khong thuan Igi moi trudng ben ngoai khiln cho muc tang trudng
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toi nhat trong burc tranh tang trudng kinh te toan cau nam 2011. Kinh te My co mijrc tang trudng yeu ot trong nam 2011. Quy 4/2011 kinh tl My tang truong 2,8%, muc tang trudng manh nhat trong cac qii\ cua nam. Ket qua nay co dugc la nhd sy gia tang chi tieu tieu dimg ciia dan cir va dau tu tu nhan trong nhimg thang cuoi nam. Miirc tang trudng ca nam 2011 cua kinh te My udc dgt 1,7% mirc tang trudng dugc xem la yeu dt, chua du de cai thifn tinh hinh that nghifp d mirc cao, tham hyt ngan sach ldn va nhCrng riii ro tir khiing hoang ng cong d chau Au.
Kinh te khu vyc lien minh chau Au (EU) tang trudng cham lai \ a co nguy ca rai vao giai doan suy thoai mdi. Tang trudng kinh te khu vyc dong tien chung chau Au (Eurozone) co miirc tang truang Bang 2: Tang truong GDP mgt so nen kinh te Idn cac quy 2010-2011
Ten nuoc My EU
Trung Quoc Nhat Ban
Tdng trudng GDP (%) Ql/10
3,9 0,4 11,9
1,9
Q2/10 3,8
1,5 10,3
1,6
Q3/10 2,5 0,5 9,6 1,1
Q4/10 2,3 0,2 9,8 0,5
Ql/11 0,4 0,7 9,7 -1,7
Q2/11 1,3 0,2 9,5 -0,5
Q3/11 1,8 0,3 9,1 1,4
' 04/11 2,8 _
. 8,9
Nguon: My: Bg thuang mgi My; EU: Ca quan thong ki EU; Trung Qudc- Nhgt Bdn: Trading Economics
KINH T€ TH6 GIOI 2011 Vfl TRI6N VONG 2 0 ^
Hinh 1: Tang truong san xuat cong nghiep the gioi 2007-2011
% 40 30 20 10 0 10 -20 -30 -40
71/07 T10/07 T7/08
— Nude dang phtit trien (trir Trung Quoc)
— Cac nude phtU trien Trung Ou<^c
T4/09 T6/10 T6/10 T7/11
khoang 1,6%, thap ban so vdi muc 1,9% cua nam 2010. Dure, nen kinh te dau tau cua khu vyc EU, co miirc tang truong cao nhat trong cac nen kinh te chu chot cua khu vyc (3%) nhung van thap ban so vdi nam 2010 (3,6%). Toe dp tang trudng cham cang lam cho khu vuc nay kho khan ban trong viec giai quyet khiing hoang ng cong.
Nhat Ban co muc tang trudng am trong 2 quy dau nam 2011 trudc khi dgt dugc mirc tang trudng duang khiem ton vao quy 3. Muc tang truong du kien ca nam 2011 cua Nhat Ban la -0,9%. Con so nay phan anh ro net tac dpng tieu cyc ciia tham hpa dpng dat va song than dien ra vao thang 3/2011 cimg vdi vifc cat giam chi tieu cong von chiem mpt phan quan trpng trong GDP ciia quoc gia nay.
Trung Qu6c van la diem sang trong boi canh am dam chung cua kinh te the gidi vdi mirc tang trudng nam 2011 udc dat 9,1%. So lifu tang trudng GDP theo cac quy nam 2011 cho thay nen kinh te nay dang CO ddu hifu chirng lgi khi lien tuc sut giam.
Trung Quoc tilp tuc phai doi mat vdi bai toan hpc bua: doi pho vdi lgm phat va duy tri tang trudng.
1.3. Sdn xudt cong nghiep
Sy phuc hoi san xuat cong nghifp the gidi mdi bit ddu tir nua cu6i nam 2010 da chCrng lgi vao dau nam 2011 do nhCmg dilu kifn kinh te xau di d chau Au va My. Cpng hudng vdi tac dpng tieu cyc ciia tham hpa dpng dat va song than d Nhat Ban da gay ra cii soc ldn doi vdi chuoi cutig toan cau khien san
Nguon: Ngdn hdng the giai xuat cong nghifp the gidi bi dinh trf ke tir dau quy 2/2011, dgc bift la doi vdi nghanh cong nghifp difn tir va oto. Giai dogn khdi sac cua san xuat cong nghifp the gidi dien ra sau do ke tir giifa nam 2011 nhd vao sy phuc hoi cua chuoi cung toan cau, sy no lyc tai thiet cua Nhat Ban sau tham hpa. Tuy nhien khiing hoang ng d chau Au, tranh cai ve mirc tran ng cong d My da lam giam niem tin cua cac nha dau tu va ngudi tieu diing, tran lut Ijch su tgi Thai Lan gay gian dogn mpt so mat xich trong chuoi cung da tao nen nhCrng ap lyc Ien qua trinh phuc hoi ciia san xuat cong nghifp the gidi sau do. Tat ca cac cu soc nay va anh hudng cua chiing da tac dpng den san xuat cong nghifp the gidi d nhCrng muc dp khac nhau d cac giai dogn khac nhau trong nam.
Tong hgp anh hudng cua tat ca cac yeu to tich cyc va tieu cyc, san xuat cong nghifp the gidi dich CO sy chuyen ngang ke tir dau nam 2011 vdi toe dp tang trudng theo thang tren 2% vao thang 5 va thang 8, theo sau sy syt giam 1,2-1,3% vao thang 6, thang 9 va 0,1% vao thang 10. Tong the tang trudng san xuat cong nghifp the gidi chCrng lai vao nira dau nam 2011, sau do tang d cac nen kinh te chu chot d chau Au vao quy 3, phan anh sy ket hgp giua muc tang mgnh trong thang 7, 8 va sy sut giam vao thang 9. Trung Quoc van dan dau the gidi ve tang trudng san xuat cong nghifp trong nam 2011, nhung khong nam ngoai tae dpng ciia cac dien bien kinh te the gidi trong nam.
Kinh M a t trien
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INH T€ TH€ GIOI 2011 Vfl TRIGN VONG 2012
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1.4. Thuang mgi
Thuang mgi the gidi nam 2011 tang 6,4%, eao ban 1 diem phan tram so vdi miirc tSng trung binh trong 10 nam qua. Tuy nhien, tang trudng thuang mai cac giai doan trong nam 2011 khong giong nhau. Trong quy dau nam 2011, thuang mgi the gidi tang trudng d muc cao, tuy nhien no da bi xi hai sau do bdi hang loat cac cu soc giang vao nen kinh te the gidi. Tham hpa dpng dat song than d Nhat Ban khien thuang mai the gidi giam nhanh chong tir mure cao 22,6% trong thang 3 xuong miirc 12,4%
trong thang 4. Dong gop Idn vao mirc giam sut nay la su thu hep nhu cau nhap khau cua khu vyc Dong A nhu nhu cau nhap khau cua Trung Quoc giam
11,3%, Han Qu6c giam 13,7%.
Hinh 3: Von FDI vao
Nguon: Ngdn hdng the gidi NhCrng dnh hudng thdm hga thien tai d Nhgt Ban vira ling dju thi nhCrng bat on kinh te todn cau den tir cupc khung hoang ng cong d chau Au, tranh cai leo thang vl tran ng cong d My, sy kifn trai phieu nude My lan dau tien trong Ijch sy bj ha muc tin nhifm, mgt Ian nira lam cho thuomg mai the gioi chuyen biln tieu cyc vao thang 8. Thuang mai khoi cae nude phat trien giam 24 diem phan tram trong giai doan thang 5 den thang 10 (tir 14,7% xuong - 9,3%), cac nude dang phat trien co muc giam thap ban 0,9 dilm phan tram (tir 2,9% xuong 2%). Nhir vay, vdi sy giam sut mgnh trong tang trudng thuang mgi till gidi, mpt lan nua thuang mgi the gidi lai rai xuong dudi miirc dinh trudc khiing hoang, mpt eft moc ma no da timg dgt Igi dugc vao thang 12/2010.
cdc khu vu-c 2009-2011
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8 - 6 - 4 - 2 - 0 -2
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("ac nen kinh to - 6 dang noi
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2002 04 06 08 10 x7/ll 2002 04 06 08 10 -1-7/11
1.5. Dong von ddu tu qudc ti
Dong von quoc te tu nhan do vao cac nude dang phat trien giam nhe trong nam 2011 sau sy phyc h6i mgnh me trong nam 2010, udc dat 950 ty USD (4,3% GDP toan cau) thip hem con so 1100 ty USD (5,4% GDP) nam 2010. Tong thi, dong von ngin hgn trong nam 2011 suy giam bat chap giai doan khdi sac nua dau nam 2011. Nguyen nhan mpt phan do su suy giam thuang mai toan cau va vifc mpt so cac quoc gia dang phat trien nhu Trung Quoc ap dung cac bifn phap that chat de ban che nhCrng rui ro tir cae dong von ngan ban.
Dong von FDI vao cac nude dang phat trien tang nhe vdi muc 10,6% trong nam 2011, udc dgt 555 ty USD, chii yeu rai vao nira dau nam 2011. Khu vyc CO mire tang ldn nhat von FDI do vao la My Latinh va Caribe, nai co sire hap dan dau tu nhd vao mirc tang trudng an tugng, nguon tai nguyen doi dao va tilm nang thj trudng tieu diing ldn. Khu vyc Dong A Thai Binh Duomg va Nam A van la diem den hap din eiia cac nha dau tu, nhat la cac nude eo toe dp tang trudng cao nhu Trung Quoc, An Dp, Indonesia, Malaysia. FDI suy giam d cac khu vyc khac vdi nhumg nguyen do khac nhau. FDI suy giam d khu vyc Au va Trung A do nhCrng dien bien kinh te xau d chau Au, d Trung Dong va Bic Phi do nhu-ng bat 6n chinh trj va lan song each mang "mua xuan A Rap". Trong khi do sy suy giam d khu vuc can Sahara chau Phi la do vifc ngung dau tu dong tir Angola.
1.6. Lgm phdt
Nhin chung lgm phat cua the gidi nam 2011 cao
Nguon: Ngdn hdng the gi&i han so vdi nam 2010 do sy phyc hoi cua gia ca hang hoa va nhung rao can nang lyc mdi noi len. Muc lgm phat nam 2011 khong dong deu d cac khu vyc.
Cac nen kinh te phat trien lgm phat d miirc 2,5%, trong khi do lgm phat tgi cae nen kinh te dang phat trien va mdi noi cao hom 3 lin (7,5%). Dieu nay xuat phat tir thyc te la do sy phyc hoi cua gia luang thyc va ty trpng ciia lucmg thyc trong gio hang hoa tinh lgm phat Igi cao hom nhieu d cac nude dang phat trien va mdi noi so vdi cac nude phat trien.
Nam 2011 da chung kiln tinh trgng lgm phat kha cao d cac nen kinh tl mdi n6i nhu Trung Quoc, An Dp, Brazil, Nga va d mpt so quoc gia thupc Lien Xo (cu). Chi so gia tieu dimg (CPI) cua Brazil nam 2011 la 6,6%, muc tang cao nhat trong vong 6 nam gan day. Chi so CPI cua An Dp trong nam 2011 co giam doi chut so vdi nam 2010 nhung van d muc hai con so (10,6%). Cung nhu nhieu nude thupc Lien Xo (eu), lgm phat co sy tang manh d Nga nam 2011 va dgt muc 8,9%. Rieng Trung Quoc, chi s6 CPI trong nam 2011 udc tang tdi 5,5%, cao nhat trong 3 nam gan day.
1.7. Thdt nghiep
That nghifp toan ciu van leo thang trong nam 2011 vdi so that nghifp tren 197 trifu ngudi, tang 27 trifu ngudi that nghifp so vdi nam 2007. Nam 2008 CO them 5,8 trifu ngudi that nghifp, nam 2009 con so nay tang manh 21 trifu ngudi dua ty If that nghifp toan cau tir miirc 5,5% len 6,2%. Ty If that nghifp toan cau trong nam 2010 va 2011 dao dpng xung quanh muc 6%.
Nhom lao dpng lira tu6i thanh nien (tir 15-24
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Ngiuhi: To cliicc I.ao dgng quoc li' (ILO). 2011-2016: .so lieu uac tinh tu6i) la nhom bj anh hudng nhieu nhat cua khung cau ma c6n lam chgm no lyc phyc hoi niem tin ve hoang kinh tl. Nam 2011 co 74,8 trifu thanh nien kha nang ben vQ-ng cua tai chlnh toan cau. Thu hai, that nghifp, tang han 4 trifu ngudi so vdi nam 2007. vifc ng cong vk tham hyt ngan sach cao d hai nen Udc tinh CO khoang 6,4 trifu lao dpng thanh nien tir kinh tl My va Nhgt Ban cung nhu khung huang bo hy vpng tim kilm vifc lam va rut khoi lyc lugng tang trudng chgm lgi d cac nude dang phat trien lao dpng toan ciu. cung c6 the gay ra nhiJng cu soc tieu cyc bat ngd
^ . , „ i r.. • J- jx .u'S •'• Thir ba, cac nen kinh tl phat trien trong nam qua da Khu vuc Trung Dong va Bac Phi dan dau the giai ,x , . .. ., .i ,. , ,. .i , •, f . o A , , j u'-r- i ' u . - u > that bgi trong vi?c giam dau tu nha nuac, tang dau ve ty le that nghiep nam 2011 do bat on chmh tr; bung
phat trong nam. Ty If that nghifp nhom cac nude phat trien va lien minh chau Au van d mire cao 8,5%.
Nam A CO ty If that nghifp thap nhat 3,8%. Tren binh difn chung bire tranh that nghifp toan cau nam 2011 khong CO nhieu chuyen bien so vdi nam 2010.
2. Trien vong kinh te the gioi 2012 va khuyen nghj cho Viet Nam
Kinh tl the gidi nam 2012 se budc vao mpt thdi ky rat kho khan vdi nhieu rui ro va bat on. Thur nhat,
tu tu nhan; trong khi no lyc tang cau npi dja, giam cau xuat khau ciia cac nen kinh te dang phat trien cung khong thanh cong. Thir tu, cang thang va bat on chinh trj d Trung Dong va Bac Phi se lam anh hudng tieu cyc den nguon cung \e dau mo. Han nCra, sy gia tang cang thang giCira Iran \a cac nuac phat trien cung dan tdi sy gia tang gia dau mo xuat phat tir cung ve dau va tir nhu cau dau chuyen tir Iran sang nude khac.
Vdi nhung kho khan \ a thach thirc tren, Quy tien khiing hoang ng cong d cac nude chau Au da lan ra tf quoc te (IMF) dy bao kinh te the gidi co the lai nhilu nude khong chi lam giam siit tang trudng toan rai vao suy thoai trong nam 2012 neu kinh te cac
Bang 3: Ty If that nghiep toan cau cac khu vyc tren the gioi 2009-2011 (%)
Khu vuc The gi6i
Nh6m cac nu6c phat trien vi lien minh chau Au Trung va Nam Dong Au va khoi CIS
Dong A
Dong Nam A vi Th^i Binh Duong Nam A
Latinh va Caribe Trung Dong eac Phi
Can Sahara chau Phi
2009 6,2 8,3 10.2
4,3 5,2 3,9 7,7 10,1
9,6 8,2
2010 6,1 8,8 9,5 4,1 4,8 3,9 7,2 9,1 9,6 8,2
Udc 2011 6,0 8,5 8,6 4,1 4,7 3,8 7,2 10,2 10,9 8,2
Ngudn: Td chirc lao dpng qudc ti (ILO)
8
Kinh te&Phat trien
KINH T€ TH6 GIOI 2011 Vfl TRI6N VONG 2
nuac phuomg Tay khong di dung hudng. IMF cho hp dang gia tang trong thuang mgi quoc tl. De bao rang sue tieu dimg giam d cac nude phat triln, thj dam phat trien bin vung cQng nhu nang cao gia trj truomg tai chinh thi gidi ngay cang biln dpng do xuat khau, Vift Nam can tap trung nang cao gia trj nhumg^lo ngai ve ng cong d My va chau Au se kim cho san pham xuat khau bing cai thien chat lugng.
ham toe dp tang trudng cua nen kinh tl thi gidi. Ben cgnh do, can chuyen djch ca cau hang xuat khau Ngan hang the gidi (WB) dy bao kinh tl thi gidi theo huong gia tang ty trpng hang cong nghifp chl nam 2012 tang truong d muc 2,5%, co sy giam siit biln dya vao lgi thi lao dpng va cong nghf de tang hom so vdi mirc 2,7% cua nam 2011. Tang trudng \g[ thl vl quy mo, dong thdi chuyen sang phat trien kinh te ciia cac nude phat triln chi dat khoang 1,4% cac nganh san xuat xuat khau dya vao v6n va ky thuat trong nam 2012, dgc biet eac nude sir dung dong cao de gia tang gia trj va thich ung nhanh vdi su bien Euro dy bao se roi vao suy thoai vdi mirc tang
trudng giam 0,3% do phai tap trung giai quylt khung hoang ng cong va cung co he thong tai chinh.
Kinh te Nhat Ban va My mac dii co sy phuc hoi ve nhu cau trong nude nhung dy bao co sy tang trudng khong cao hon nhieu so vdi 2011 vdi ian lupt la
1,9% va 2,2% do tac dpng lan toa tieu cyc qua kenh thuomg mai va tai chlnh tir cac nude sir dung dong Euro. Kinh te cac nude dang phat triln va mdi noi se tang trudng thap hon nam 2011 vai mirc 5,4% bit nguon tir giam sut thuang mgi, tai chlnh toan cau va nhu cau trong nude.
Dong von quoc te den cac nude dang phat trien dy bao se giam mpt nua so vdi nam 2012. Trong cac dong von quoc te, khac vdi nam 2010 FDI se co sy giam sut do nhCfng bat on tren thj trudng tai chlnh quoc te. Hogt dpng thuang mai the gidi se chi tang 5,2% trong nam 2012 do tac dpng tieu cyc cua sy gia tang khung hoang ng cong d cac nude khu vuc dong Euro. Sy cai thifn ve cac dieu kifn cung ung va nhu cau giam se lam cho gia ca hang hoa the gidi se giam mac dii gia dau dy bao se tang. Do vay lgm phat toan cau dy bao co sy giam siit trong nam 2012. Tinh hinh that nghifp toan cau dy kien se khong CO cai thifn trong nam 2012 vdi them 3 trifu
doi ciia tin truong quoc te.
Thir hai, trong boi canh kho khan kinh te, cac doanh nghifp tren the gidi se chuyen sang khai thac thj trudng d cac quoc gia dang phat trien va mdi noi trong do co Vift Nam. Vift Nam se don nhan sy gia nhap cua nhieu doanh nghifp nude ngoai va gay sire ep canh tranh cho cae doanh nghifp Vift Nam. Vift Nam can co nhung ho trg va dieu phoi de tang cudng nang lyc cgnh tranh cho cac doanh nghifp Vift Nam trudc cac doi thii quoc te.
Thir ba, trong boi canh kinh te toan cau co dau hifu suy thoai va bat on cao, duy tri on djnh kinh te vT mo tai Vift Nam tiep tuc se la mpt nhiem vu kho khan. Da co nhieu budc tien sau Nghj quyet 11 trong vifc kiem che lam phat, nhung chlnh sach kinh te vT mo can thiet phai tiep tyc thyc hifn that chat de xua tan nghi ngd ve kha nang ciia chinh phu nham khoi phuc on djnh kinh te vT mo va xay dyng sy tin nhifm chlnh sach.
Thiir tu, boi canh kinh te the gidi dang bien dpng kho ludng cang dgt ra viec tai cau true nen kinh te trd nen cap bach ban nham khac phuc nhung kho khan den tir ben ngoai va npi tai cua nen kinh te.
Vifc tai cau true nen kinh te can dgt trpng tam vao:
ngudi tham gia vao nhom thit nghifp, dua t6ng so tai ca hf thong ngan hang va cac dinh chl tai chlnh thit nghifp nam 2012 len tren 200 trifu ngudi. thong qua vifc giam so lupng, tang quy mo va chat NhChig thach thirc cua kinh tl thl gidi se co nhirng lugng; tai ca ciu hogt dpng doanh nghifp tap trung tac dpng ca tich eye va tieu cyc din kinh tl Vift Nam vao doanh nghifp nha nude, nhat la cac tap doan va trong nam 2012. Thu nhit, xuat khiu eua Vift Nam tong cong ty; tai cau true diu tu cong tap trung vao trong nam 2012 se bj anh hudng ldn bdi khung hoang tang cudng ky cuang phan cip, quy hogch, huong ng cong dang dien ra d nhieu nude va chu nghia bao tdi ca cau dau tu hgp ly va co hifu qua cao.D
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. ILO (2011), Global Employment Trends 2012, Geneva, Swizerland.
2. IMF (2011), World Economic Outlook, September 2011, Washington DC, USA.
3. Le QuIc Hpi va D5ng Trin Thuomg (2011), "T6ng quan kinh tl thl giai 2010 va triln vong 2011", Tgp chi Kinh ti va Phdt trien, s6 164.
4. World Bank (2012), Global Economic Prospects, Volume 4, January 2012, Washington DC, USA.
