GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
(CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 17.05.2022 SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP
HELD 13.05.2022.
Summary Points of the CWWG meeting:
Lower pre-monsoon rainfall was observed during the week, as compared to Long Period Average (LPA) by 3%.
During the next week, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over Peninsular
& Central India; near normal over east & northeast India and below normal over northwest India during the week.
Heat Wave conditions in most parts with severe heat wave conditions in isolated pockets during many days of week 1(12 - 18 May, 2022).
Heat waves at isolated pockets likely over northwest India during many days of the week 2 (19 – 25 May, 2022).
The total live water storage in 140 reservoirs across the country is 33% of the storage capacity at full reservoirs level. The current year's storage is nearly 106 percent of the last year's storage.
Soil moisture condition was good in some parts of North- Eastern region and some Northern Region of the country, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu.
Summer crops area sown is 73.58 lakh ha. which have shown increase as compared to last year, which was 69.81 lakh ha. Pulses area sown has shown significant increase.
Overall major foodgrains prices have remained stable during the last week.
Prices of tomato have shown significant increase while potato has shown marginally increase and onion has shown decline.
Out of 15 crops, the Wholesale Average Prices of 5 crops namely, Masur, Urad, Mustard, Soyabean and Sesamum have shown more than Rs. 1000 above MSP.
Details of each sector are given here under:
Subject: Weekly Status Report on Crop Prospects as on 13 May 2022.
Pre-Monsoon Rainfall Status (March – May) during the week ending 11 May, 2022
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (05 May to 11 May 2022): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 11 sub- divisions, normal in 07 sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-divisions and 04 met sub- divisions received no rainfall. (Sub-Division wise weekly rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 March to 11 May 2022): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 09 met sub- divisions, normal in 05 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 22 met sub-divisions. (Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years (01 March 2022 to 11 May 2022)
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 March to
10 MAY 2017
09 MAY 2018
08 MAY 2019
13 MAY 2020
12 MAY 2021
11 MAY 2022 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
01 04 10 15
01 07 11 19
03 04 08 15
18 04 07 29
16 04 06 26
05 04 05 14 Deficient
Large Deficient No rain
Total
12 09 00 21
14 03 00 17
16 05 00 21
07 00 00 07
06 02 02 10
07 15 00 22
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation 0% (-) 13% (-) 21% 19% (-) 19% (-) 25%
Source: IMD
Region of India Week Ending (11.05.2022) Cumulative (01.03.22 to 11.05.2022) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
East & North-East 25.0 37.3 -33 D 245.5 247.4 -1 N
North-West 5.7 7.9 -28 D 20.0 91.6 -78 LD
Central India 2.9 3.7 -22 D 10.1 23.0 -56 D
South Peninsula 26.9 14.1 91 LE 93.4 69.1 35 E
Country as a whole 12.0 12.4 -3 N 67.1 88.9 -25 D
1.2 Weather Forecast
Week 1(12 - 18 May, 2022)
Southwest Monsoon likely to advance into South Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal around 15th May, 2022. Thereafter, it is likely to advance over remaining parts of Andaman Sea and many parts of south & adjoining central Bay of Bengal during the week.
Widespread light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Northeast India during the week.
Isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely over Assam-Meghalaya during 12th to 17th May. Isolated extremely heavy falls also likely over Meghalaya on 12th to 14th May and Arunachal Pradesh during 13th to 17th May.
Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds very likely over Kerala-Mahe & Lakshadweep with isolated heavy falls over Kerala-Mahe during most days of the week.
Isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning & hail very likely over Western Himalayan Region during 16th to 18th May, 2022.
No significant weather likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.
Week 2 (19 – 25 May, 2022)
Increase in rainfall/thunderstorm activity over south Peninsular India as compared to week 1.
Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity likely over southwest Peninsular India and isolated to scattered rainfall over rest peninsular India. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Kerala, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka during many days of the week.
Light to moderate scattered to fairly Widespread rainfall with thunderstorm activity is very likely over northeast & East India during most days of the week. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over northeast India during some days of the week.
Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over Peninsular & Central India; near normal over east & northeast India and below normal over northwest India during the week.
Maximum Temperature for week 1 & 2: (12 – 25 May, 2022)
During the week 1, No significant change in maximum temperatures very likely:
o over Northwest India during 1st half of the week and fall by 2-3°C thereafter.
o over East India, Vidarbha & Chhattisgarh during next 24 hours and rise by 2-4°C thereafter.
o over Gujarat during next 2 days and fall by 2-3°C thereafter.
Heat Wave conditions in most parts with severe heat wave conditions in isolated pockets very likely:
o over West & East Rajasthan during 12th to 13th; heat wave conditions in many parts on 14th & 15th and is some parts on 16th May, 2022;
o over Gujarat state on 12th &13th;
o over Jammu & Kashmir, south Haryana-Delhi, Punjab during 12th-14th;
o over West & East Madhya Pradesh during 12th - 16th and Vidarbha during 14th -16th May, 2022.
During the week 2, Maximum temperatures likely to rise over most parts of northwest & adjoining central India as compared to week 1.
These are likely to be above normal by 2-4°C over most parts of northwest India and Odisha. It is likely to be below normal to near normal over rest parts of India.
Heat wave at isolated pockets likely over northwest India during many days of the week.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 12 May, 2022)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 140 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 175.96 BCM, which is about 68.25% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 140 major reservoirs decreased to 58.76 BCM from the previous week’s level of 62.12 BCM. Current year’s storage position is higher than last year’s storage position of 55.21 BCM and the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 45.89 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 140 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 116 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 14 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 04 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50%, 06 reservoirs with storage upto 30% and 01 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 33 106 128
Last Week 35 108 127
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 31% on 12.05.2021, 39% on 12.05.2020, 23% on 12.05.2019 and 21% on 12.05.2018.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2022 (As on 13.05.2022)
(In LMT) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP NPKS SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.04.2022 47.83 7.73 2.47 14.05 15.69
Actual Requirement for Kharif 2022 179.01 58.82 19.82 63.72 33.19 Estimated Requirement during May, 2022 26.65 10.18 3.14 9.38 5.07 Cumulative Receipt upto 13.05.2022 34.82 13.47 2.06 8.66 4.34 Cumulative Availability upto 13.05.2022 82.65 21.19 4.53 22.71 20.02
Cumulative Sales upto 13.05.2022 17.84 4.40 0.85 3.56 2.86
Closing Stock as on 13.05.2022 64.82 16.80 3.68 19.15 17.16
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
An intensity of Anthracnose (Colletotrichumgloeosporioides) in Mango from Andaman&
Nicobar Union territory.
o Anthracnose in Mango was reported at Trace to moderate intensity (Above ETL) from North, South and Middle Andaman districts of Andaman Nicobar in 7 (Ha) area.
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
V. Seeds:
The states have reported tentative 177.97 lakh quintals seed availability against the requirement of 160.45 lakh quintals in the country for Kharif-2022 season. An overall surplus of 17.52 lakh quintals of seed is available for Kharif-2022.
There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2022 except Jute and Common Millet.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 06 May, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP:, Nil.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Wheat, Arhar, Gram, Masur, Moong, Urad, Groundnut, Mustard, Soyabean, Sesamum and Sunflower.
VII. Progressive Procurement as on 13 May, 2022
Table 9.1: Rice
(In Lakh Metric Tonnes)
State Progressive Procurement as on
13.05.2022 In Marketing season
2021-2022
In Marketing season 2020-2021
Andhra Pradesh 34.22 37.61
Telangana 49.99 45.63
Bihar 30.09 23.40
Chhattisgarh 61.65 39.76
Gujarat 0.82 0.74
Haryana 37.05 37.89
Kerala 3.85 4.26
Madhya Pradesh 30.70 24.97
Maharashtra 8.96 9.07
Odisha 38.91 42.80
Punjab 125.48 135.89
Tamil Nadu 23.55 21.10
Uttar Pradesh 43.91 44.78
Uttarakhand 7.74 7.12
West Bengal 14.96 15.55
All-India 521.13 497.03
Source: Food &PD
Table 9.2: Wheat
State Progressive Procurement as on
13.05.2022 In Marketing season
2022-2023
In Marketing season 2021-2022
Punjab 95.43 131.14
Haryana 40.72 81.08
Uttar Pradesh 2.28 23.21
Madhya Pradesh 41.16 103.71
Rajasthan 0.01 12.77
Uttarakhand 0.01 1.00
All-India 179.69 354.21
Annex-III/ P.I
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 12 May – 18 May, 2022 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST-2022
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 12 MAY 13 MAY 14 MAY 15 MAY 16 MAY 17 MAY 18 MAY
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS FWS WS WS● WS● WS● WS FWS
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS L● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS●● WS FWS
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA WS L●●● WS L●●● WS●●● WS●● WS●● WS WS 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA WS L● WS L● WS● WS● WS● WS WS 5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS L●● WS●● WS●● WS● WS● WS FWS
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT L ISOL L ISOL ISOL SCT L FWS FWS
7 ODISHA SCT L ISOL ISOL ISOL L ISOL L ISOL SCT
8 JHARKHAND ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT SCT
9 BIHAR SCT L SCT L ISOL ISOL ISOL L SCT SCT
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL L ISOL L DRY ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL ISOL
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL L DRY DRY DRY ISOL# SCT SCT
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY ISOL ISOL
14 PUNJAB DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY ISOL DRY
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH ISOL L DRY DRY DRY ISOL# FWS SCT
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL L+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY SCT# WS SCT
17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY++ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY
18 EAST RAJASTHAN DRY++ DRY++ DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY ISOL
21 GUJARAT REGION DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH DRY+ DRY+ DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL ISOL DRY DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL
25 MARATHAWADA ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL
26 VIDARBHA ISOL DRY DRY+ DRY+ DRY+ DRY ISOL
27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY ISOL
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS L● SCT L ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL SCT
29 TELANGANA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
30 RAYALASEEMA WS L●●● SCT L ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL SCT
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT L● FWS L FWS L● SCT SCT FWS SCT
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS L● SCT L SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS L● SCT L SCT ISOL ISOL SCT FWS
35 KERALA & MAHE FWS L● FWS L● FWS L● FWS L● FWS L● FWS WS
36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS L FWS FWS FWS FWS FWS WS
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%) SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDust storm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning # Thunderstorm with Hail
+ Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) ++ Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
-Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 13 May – 17 May 2022:
