Han chd cua chat lupng tang trudng ldnh te Viet Nam
So Ngoai vu tinli Phu Thp
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hSl liii?ng tang tmcing kinli tg ]h pham Iru phan anh ban cheit bfen trong ciJa tang trudng ttinh 16 va liha nang duy trt tang tmemg ldnh 16 trong dat h^n. Bai vi^t ptian Uch nhirng han cM cua ch^t luong tang UirOng kinh t« Vijt Nam * bfin mjt thS hi6n tr6n;td 06, di xuSt mCit stf khuyfa nghi nhSm nang cao chit lupng tang tru<5mg kinh t« cOa Viet Nam Uong Oloi gian t6i. . ^
1. H^n Che Hie hien i trang thai ciia lang tnrong kinh te
LI. Ting trudng kinh t^ khA cao, nhung chua dn dSnh
Ki tn nam 1986 dgn nay, Vigt Nam lu6n d?t tang trudng duong, trong d6 c6 12 nam dat t6c 66 tang tmemg ugn 7%. Tuy nhien, tang tm<>ng kinh tg (TTKT) Clia Vigt Nam chua gn dinh trong nh&ng nam gin day, d$c bigt nh6m nganh C6ng nghigp — xay dung.
ca thg thSy, sau dgi mdi 5 nam, tgc dgc tang tnrdng chung cCia ngn kinh tg khgng cao, dgt muc 4,42Wnam. Trong hon nua dAu Ui$p nien 90 (tCt nam 1992 — nam 1997) dat tfic dg tang tnning binh quan la 8,75%. cac nam 1998, 1999 tfic dg tang tnrdng giam sut gAn mgt nira. Nguygn nhan chinh la do ngn kinh tg bj anh hudng cOa cugc khdng hoang tai chinh — tign tg D6ng A va nhung b^t loi trgn thi Uudng thg gioi. Tu nam 2000 lai nhich Ign, kgo dai dgn nam 2007, tuy nhign vjn khfing ttlg bing giai doan 1992 -1997. Tu nam 2008 ttd lai day tfic dfi TTKT giim silt kha manh, giam tdi 3 dgn 4 digm phin ttam. Tinh Uang nay la do mgt phSn kinh tg hi anh hudng ca cugc khung hodng kinh tg toan cAu.
Bao cao kinh tg vi mg quj IV va ca nam 2014 do Vign Nghign cilu Quan ly kinh tg Tmng uong (CIEM) va AusAid cfing tjfi ngay 11 -2 nhgn dinh: Tin higu phuc hfii tang mrdng da rO hon song cgn thSp xa so vdi muc Uung binh 1999-2000 va xu Uig tang ttudng chua duoc cai Ulign rg ngt. Ngoai ra, Uieo bao cao nay, tang Uudng GDP thap hon muc tmng binh va Ul^p hon nhigu nudc khac Uong khu vyc. Tang Uudng cua Vigt Nam tn 2012-2016 du kign chi hon duoc Campuchia, Lao, Myanmar, va thSp hon Tmng Qufic, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thai Lan.
B u h 1: T6c a; l i i « IradBg kink IE cna Vifl N U B (ii Bim 1986 din QI 1015
•—13c d$ laig midng dnmg—V-NSng, I ^ Ik^ l i r-CSDgnglliip-xfiydvne -»«-Didiini
Hinh 1 ttgn cho thgy r6 hon vg su khfing fin djnh ciia TTKT Vigl Nam. Dudng higu thj tfic dfi tang tnrdng nganh cfing nghigp ttoi, sut manh nhgt, liic vpt ign tren 14%, ltic tut xufing dudi miic -2,5%. Tigp theo la dudng bigu thi tfic dfi tang ttirdng ciia nganh djch vu, c6 nam vpt ign Ugn 10%, nam lai tuc xufing Idioang 2%, Uigm chi co nam la -2,3%. Tfic dfi tang ttudng nganh nfing nghigp vg toe dp tang tnrong chung ciia nen kinh tg cflng U6i, sut.
U . Quy m6 CDP rH tdc 06 ting tnjdng quy md GDP nhd lie
Quy mg GDP (PPP) ciia nudc ta rgt nhd, nam 2010 la 277,6 ty USD, dilng Uid 6 ttong khu vuc ASEAN, sau Indonesia (1.033 ty USD), Thai Lan (588,8 tj USD), Malaysia (417,3 ty USD), Philippine (368,6 ty USD), Singapore (287,2 ly USD).
B i n l!Q^»8GDPTiqBrm8laBgiiiiaBaGPFci«ViftN»»,2Bfl3-2011 N>M
2003 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(^k M MBit 19M, tf « 6 K ) 3 3 6 ^ 2 362.43S 393.031 425^73 4 5 1 ^ 3 490^00 51fi;600 551.609 584.496 613.844
Q ^ m 8 Ont trndBg G W
^ n ua/nim tntdt. tf dtax) 26.193 30.596 32J43 25572 39.157 26,100 35.009 32.S87 29JgS
Bhng I cho th^y quy mo GDP va quy m6 tSng hin^ng GDP hay muc tang hir6ng myet ddi cua n^n kinh te Vi^t Nam v6 cung nh6 bi, nhht ih quy m6 tSng
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hu6r^ GDP. Nam 2008 co quy md tang trucmg ldn nh^t kg ttr nam 2003 nhung cung chi la 29.157 ty d6ng Cgla so sanh 1994), con nam 2007 la nam dat th^p nh^t, chi la 25.972 ty d6ng (giA so sanh 1994).
2. Han che tjie hien d phinmg thirc ciia tang tnrdng kinh te
ZI. T&ng tiudng kinh techuyiu dua vio vdn Theo tinh toan cua \^ien Nghien cihi quSn ly kinh t^
hung uong, nhung nam qua d ViH Nam vdn la nhan td chu y^u ddng vao TTKT, nhSn td TFP ddng gdp chua cao nhJit la so vdi che nudc trong khu vuc. Di4u dd chung td TTKT ciia Vi$t Nam chu y^u theo tri^u rdng chua theo chieu sSu.
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1. D£ng gdp lieo difim pUa Dim
-van
-Laoff4»g -NlDitiultUaflbop 2. DiDii Bdp (MO ti U phki U m -V&l
-Lao dQng - m n g siUtl3niih9p
• o t i H t r n t i 1993-1H7
8,8 6.1 1,4 1 3 100 6 9 3 15.9 14,8
a U A t £ » V i « t N i H f H ) 1998-2002
6,2 3,56 U4 1,4 100 57,5 20,0 22,5
2003-2010 7,25 3.78 1.4 2,07 100 5.27 19.1 28.2
Giai dogn 1993 — 1997, y^u td vdn va lao ddng ddng hdp tdi 7,5 di^m phdn \ihm/8,S diim phAn trhm tang hudng va 85,2% cua GDP. Gial doan 2003 - 2010, phSn ddng gdp cua hgi y^u td nay trong GDP van cao d miic 71,8%, TFP chi ddng gdp28,2%. Trong khi dd, cung thdi glan nay, ddng gdp cuat TFP vao TTKT cua Tmng Qudc la 52%, Indonesia 49%, Thai lan 53%, Philippine 38%, Malaysia 50%...
2.2. T&ng tmdng kinh ti did yiu dua vao cAc n^nh tn^n thdng, khai tb6c va xu&'t kh&u t&i nguy^Otd
TTKT cua Wit Nam chQ yin cdn dya vao cac nganh san xu^t v§t cheft. Ndng nghiep va cdng nghidp ddng gdp phdn ldp trong GDP.phdn ddng gdp cda nganh djch vu trong GDP trong chuc nam gap day khdng nhOng khdng tang ma cdn giam siit so vdi nhung nam trudc dd. Vi^t Nam da cd 7 nam li^n phdn ddng gdp Clia nganh dich vu dat tren 40% (hi nam 1993 d^n nam 1999). Ty trong ddr^ gdp ciia nginh n6ng nghidp trong GDP cd gidm, nhung r^t chgm.
N^u so sdnh co cdu kinh t^ theo nganh cQa nudc ta vdi cdc nudc trong khu vuc thi ta lac hdu hon hg khd xa. Nam 2010, ty trgng ciia nganh ndng nghidp Vieetj Nam trong GDP la 20,6%, dung thu 4 hong khu vuc ASEAN, chi hon cac nudfc Myanma la 36%, Campuchia Id 36% vd Ldo Id 30,8%; ty trgng cua ngdnh cdng nghidp Id 41,1%, dung thu 5 trong khu vyc, kem cac nudc Malaysia 43,6%, Thdi Lan 44,7%, Indonesia 47%, Brunei 66,8%; ty hgng ciia ngdnh dich vy Id 38,3%.
3. Han che the hien d hieu qua cua tang hvdng kinh'te
3.1. K$u tpi&sdffyngvdn diubrth&'p
Hi$u qud sii dung vdn dduf tu cia \^et Nam thSp, thd hien d:
- He sd ICOR cao: Giai dogn 2001-2008 vdn ddu tiVGDP Clia nudc ta chiem ddn 33.5%, cao hon so vdi ty le vdn ddu tu/GDP glai dogn ddu cdng nghidp hoi Clia cdc nudc, tuy nhidn he sd ICOR lai cao hon khi nhi^u. H§ sd ICOR ciia nudc ta hong cdc nam 2001- 2008 la 4,5 nghia la cdn 4,5 ddng vdn ddu hr d^ tai^
dugc mdt ddng GDP, cao gdp mdi ddn gdp hai nhi^u nudc xung quanh h-ong then ky ddu cdng nghidp ho^.
Dac bidt, glai dogn 2006-2010 tdng ldn 10,52, hie la gdp khoang 3,5 Han Qudc va Dai Loan giai dogn 1961- 1980, gdp 2,5 Idn Thdi Lan gial doan 1981-1995 vd Tmng qudc giai doan 2001-2006.
- GDP/vdn ddu tu: Giai dogn 1996-2000, mdt ddng vdn ddu hr tao ra 3 ddng GDP, nhung sang giai d o ^ 2001-2005 gidm xudng chi cdn 2,6 ddng GDP, gi£u doan 2006-2010 xud'ng cdn 2,4 GDP. Nam 2011, 2012 cd tang nh? lan lugt Id 2,6 vd 2,7, hjy nhidn vdn thip hon giai dogn 1996-2000.
3.2. /fi^u qua sud^nglao ddngth&'p Hieu qua sii dung lao ddng cua Viet Nam rdt thSp, ndng sudt lao ddng xa hdi thdp vd tdc dd tang ndng sudt lao ddng cung thap. Nam 1991, nar^ sudt lao ddng binh quan tinh theo gid thi/c td d \^dt Nam chi dgt 2,55 tridu ddng, nghia Id chi khoang 200 i^hln ddng/lao ddng/thdng; ndm 2000 tang ldn 11,74 trieu ddng hay 978 nghin ddng/lao ddng/thdng; nam 2010 la 40,4 tridu ddng, 3,3 hidu ddng/lao dgng/thdng; nam 2012 id 56,99 tridu ddng, 4,75 tridu ddng/lao dOng/thdng.
Nang sudt iao ddng ciia Vidt Nam thdp hon idt nhieu nudc trong khu viic, chdng han nhu nam 2011, nang sudt lao dgng cOa Viet Nam dat 2.374 USD, chl bdng 44,7% cQa Phillippine 39,9% ciia Indonesia;
27,3% Clia Thai Lan; 11,1% cda Malaysia; 3,1% ciia Singapore. So vdl Tmng Qudc chi bang 30,2%, cdn viM Nhgt Bdn chi bdng 2,5%.
4. Han phe the hien d kha nang duy tri tang tnrdng kinh'te trong dailian
- Trinh dd cdng nghidp san xudt lgc hdu Trinh dd c6ng nghd cua Mdt Nam dang d tinh tr^n igc hdu. Didu dd thd hidn d miic dO tu ddng hda thdp, tdc dd ddi mdi cdng nghe chdm, ty trgng cdng nghidp du trdn cdng nghd cao nhd bd sd phdt minh sdng chfi it. Ty trg doanh nghidp cd cdng nghd cao \^idt Nam d^t khoang 20,5%, Trong khi dd Phillippine Id 29,1%, Malaysia Id 51,1%, Singapore Id 73%. TJ trgi^ kim ngach xudt khdu hdng cdng ngh§ cao ctia Vidt Nam Id 4,47%, trong khi dd ciia Han Qudc Id 36,1%, Nh$t Ban Id 30%, Mexico Id 28,8%...
- Chdt lugng ngudn nhdn luc thdp
Ty Id lao ddng dang lam vide hong ndn kinh tee
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H Tt C H A U A - THAI BiNH DUqudc ddn da qua ddo tgo rdt nhd vd tang rdt cham, nhdt Id ddl vdi lao ddng ndng thdn, lao ddng midn nui, lao ddng nli.
- Tgo ldp mdi Uudng xd hdi cho thdc ddy tdng trudmg kinh td chua thdl tdt thd hidn
Thu thap binh qudn ddu ngudi tang thuc nhung gia tdng thi/c td vd muc thi thdp cda ngudi ddn c6 xu hudng gidm. NhOng nam ddl mdi TTKT lidn h^c vd khd cao ndn kdo theo thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngueri cd tang ldn. Song do ti Id Igm phdt nhiing nam gdn ddy cao nd mi/c gia tdng thu nhdp binh quhn ddu ngu£ri khdng tdng, md cdn gidm. Nam 2006 tdc dg tang GDP/ngudi thyc cdn dgt miic +6,7%, nam 2007 gidm xudng cdn +2,5%, nam 2009 gidm xudng cdn - 5,78% vd ndm 2010 Id -1,3%.
Tdc ddng lan tda cua TTKT ddn phdt tridn con ngudi cd xu hudng kdm ddn. Didu dd thd hidn qua h$
sd tdng tmdng vi cdn ngudi (GHR) ciia Vidt Nma 10 ndm qua cd xu hudng nhd ddn, tiic Id tdc ddng tich cue Clia TTKT ddn phdt tridn con ngudi gidm dciji. Cg th^ Id ndm 2001, chl sd ndy cdn dgt gid tri 0,26079, ndm 2010 gidm xudng cdn 0,198459.
- Tdng trudng Idm gia tdng d nhi^m mdi hirdng, cgn kidt tdl nguydn
Mdi trudng ciia Vidt Nam nhiing nam qua b| xudng cdp n$ng nd. Tinh trgng vi phgm cdc quy dinh vd mdi trudng xdy ra d mgi liic, mgi noi. Ndm 2008 cd trdn 70% khu cdng nghidp vd trdn 90% sd co sd sdn xudt cdng nghidp khdng xii 1^ nudc thdi hudc khi thdl ra mdi trudng. Tinh trgng suy kidt ngudn nudc xay ra trdn khdp vOng midn, thdt thodt nudc qua hd thdng cdp nudc dd th} cao tdi 30%, tdn thdt trong khai thac tdi nguydn rdt ldn, nhdt Id khai thdc vdng ldn tdi 60- 70%, riing bj tdn phd ndng nd kd cd ning ddu ngudn, rimg phdng ho.••
5. NIot SO giai phap nhdm nang cao chat iurnig tang Irudng kinh te Viet Nam
Thli nhdt, didu chinh co cdu kinh td ngdnh ddp ling ydu cdu ddi mdi md hinh TTKT. Cdn tidn hdnh phdn Iogi, ddnh gid cdc ngdnh cd Iqri thd egnh trcinh vd cd tidm nang Igi thd egnh tranh, du bdo it nhdt cho 20 nam tdi, dd ti> dd cd chinh sdch phdt Uidn phii hgp.
Thli hai, hgn chd phdt tridn ngdnh khai thdc, giam ty trgng sii dgng tdi nguydn vd phdi xdy dyng Id Uinh cythd.
Thiic ba, didu chinh chinh sdch ddu tu, co cdu ddu Ur theo hudng gidm khuydn khich uu dai tdi chinhm tang khuydn khich uu dai phat tridn sdn xudt, tang ddu tu cho phdt tridn ngudn nhdn lye, khoa hgc cdng nghd, tang ty trgng ddu UJ vdn hong khu vyc tu nhdn, ndng cao hidu qud ddu tu vdn nhd nudc.
Thli tu, didu chinh chinh sdch thu hiit egnh hanh Clia ndn kinh td. Thu hiit FDI cd chgn lya, uu tidn cdc
dy dn FDI cd cam kdt ddn hdnh hogt ddng nghidn ciiu tridn khai vd ddo tgo 1^ nang cho ngucri Iao ddng.
Thli nam, chii trgng ddo tgo vd ndng cao chdt lugng ngudn nhdn lye, tdng phdn ngdn sdch cdp hgc bdng ddo tgo d nudc ngoai trdn co sdr egnh treinh, minh bach; khuydn khi'ch dao tgo tgi doanh nghidp;
lidn kdt ddo tgo giua cdc trudng dai hgc vdi cde td chiic nghien ciru vd tridn khai, cdc doanh nghidp, coi dd la kenh quan trgng de ndng cao chdt lugng ngudn nhan luc.
Thli sau, tidp tuc hoan thidn tlii hudng cdc ydu td sdn xudt, ndng cao nang iyc egnh tranh ciia khu vyc doanh nghidp.
Thu bay, dn dinh kinh td vl mG, dac bidt id kidm soat lgm phat vd tdi khodn vang lai.
Thli tdm, dd bd cdc rao cdn cdn tro ndng cao hidu qud ddu tu, chdt lugng dad tu, nhdt Id ddu tu cdng, tdng hidu qud ddu hj cho khu virc nha nudc.
Thtr chin, tang hieu lye qudn ly nhd nude. Khdn truong ddi mdi phuong phdp, quy trinh hogeh dinh chinh sdch theo hudng thdng nhdt vd cd can cii khoa hgc. Tidp tuc thyc hidnphdn cdp cho dia phuong, tdng cudng nang lye bg mdy hdnh chinh theo huong chuyen mdn vd chuydn nghidp cao.
Tai iieu tham khao
1. CIEM & AC!: Bdo cdo ndng luc canh tranh Vidt Nam 2009 —2010.
2. Ngd Thdng Lgi (2013), Nhung bidu hidn suy gidm hidu lye eiia tang trudng ddn tidn bd xa hgi d Vidt Nam, trong Ky yeu Hdi thdo qudc gia "Lf ludn vd mdi quan hd giua tdng trudng kinh td, phdt tridn kinh td, phdt trien ben viing vd thuc hidn cdng bdng xa hOi", Hd Ngi, thdng 6-2013.
3. Nguydn Vdn Nam, Trdn Thg Dgt (chii bien) (2006), Tdc dg vd chat lugng tang tnrdng kinh td d Viet Nam, Nxb DHKTQD, Hd Ngi
4. Nguyen Thi Thom (2014), Han chd eua chdt lugng tang trudng kinh te Vidt Nam vd mgt sd khuydn ngh|.
5. Thdi Bdo Kinh te Viit Nam, Kinh td 2012-2013, Vidt Nam vd thd gidi.
6. Thdi Bao Kinh td V\H Nam, Kinh td 2013-2014, Vidt Nam vd thd gldl.
7. Thdi Bdo Kinh td Vidt Nam, Kinh td 2014-2015, Vidt Nam vd the gidi.
