PHAN TICH - N H A N DINH • DCl B A O
Dau tu" va nor nan cua nen kinh te Viet Nam
BUI TRINH LE HOA NGtIYEN VIET PHOMG
G^n day, nhilu y kife'n cho rang, di kh6i phuc n i n kinh te c^n tang ctfofng quan ly t^ng c i u cu6'i cung (final demand), dgc bi$t tang crfoTng d i u tif cong, khuy§n khich xuS't khS'u, m$c du Vi$t Nam dang la n^n kinh te gia c6ng, xuS't kh^u chi la xuS't k h i u h6. Bai vi^t c6' ging phSn tich thi/c trang d i u ttf, n^
n i n va nhifng rui ro khi ti^'p tuc chinh sach quan ly tong cau.
C6 NEN TANG D A U TU>
Theo sd lieu cua Tong cue Thdng ke, ty le vdn diu tU so vdi GDP cd xu hffdng giam din, tff 40% nam 2007 giam xud'ng con 30% nam 2012, gin trfdng dffdng vdi ty le de danh tren GDP.
"D^ danh" thffdng dUdc xem nhU tich Iffy tff noi bg nen kinh te, dau tu trong thdi ky tid'p theo dffdc xdc dinh bang khodn de danh va chuyen nhUdng vdn thuan, ndu khdng du, thi phdi di vay.
Mffc de ddnh so vdi GDP nam 2011 vd 2012 chiem khoang 29% GDP, nhUng cd dUdc nhu vay Id nhd vao lUdng ki^u hdi.
Neu khdng tinh Itfdng tien nay. thi tich luy tff ndi bS nen kinh te tren GDP chi khoang tren dudi 20%, ma n^n kinh td' phat trie'n ben vffng khdng th^ trong vdo kieu hdi.
Neu muc tidu GDP dat ra cho nam 2014 tang cao hdn, thi lUdng dau tff ciing can tang Idn va vide di vay la khong tranh khdi, nhffng lidu viec tang diu tff cd phu hdp vdi bd'i canh dd't nUdc ta? Nhieu nghien cffu cho rdng, hidn nay nen kinh td' Vidt Nam yeu cd 6 phia cung va phia ciu.
Phia cung hiu nhu chi la san xua't mang nang tinh gia cdng, thi vide gia tang cdc nhdn td d phia ciu^uo'i cung, dac biet la dau tu cd the chi dSn de'n tang gia, tham hut thUdng mai va cang thang ty gid.
Tinh toan tff sd lidu dieu tra doanh nghiep cua Tong cue Thd'ng ke cho thd'y, bidu qud sff dung vdn qua thdng so't^
sud't Idi nhuan tren mot dong vd'n giam nhanh va lien tuc, tff gan 4% trong ndm
2000 xud'ng con 2,2% trong nam 2011 va 2012 (Bieu do 1). Khi lai suat huy dong sudt mot thdi gian ddi la 8% va de'n nay khodng 6%-7% cho thd'y, ddng cd dau tu cua ngUdi dan va doanh nghidp dan doanh la khdng cd, du ty le de danh trong GDP xa'p xi mffc dau tu.
BIEO DO 1: TY LE LOl MHaAM/VOM GIAI DOAN 2000-2012
Nguon. Tong cue Thong ke Kdt qua tinh toan h6 so' lan toa cua cdc nhan to' cua cau cuoi ciing (final demand) dufa trdn bang I-O cua Viet Nam trong 2 giai doan 2000-2005 vd 2006- 2011 cho thd'y, do lan toa cua cau cuoi ciing len san xud't, thu nhap va nhap kh£u cd sU khac biet kha idn.
Ne'u trong giai doan 2000 - 2005, dau tU lan toa den san xuat cao nha't trong cac yeu td cua cau cuoi cung, thi ddn giai doan hien nay lai kem nha't, sut giam rd't manh me, khoang 23% (nd'u trffdc day khi tang mot dong dau tff sekichthich phia cung 1,65 dong, thi hien nay khi tang mdt dong dau tff chi lan toa de'n phia cung 1,27 dong). Hdn nffa, giai doan trudc tang mot d6ng dau tu cd the tao ra 0,53 dong gid tri gia tang, nhUng ddn giai doan hien nay, chi lara tang 0,48 dong gid tri gia tang. Ve tieu diing cuo'i ciing, hien nay, khi tang mot d6ng tieu dung doi hoi nhieu gia trj san xua't hdn, nhffng lai lan toa dd'n gia tri gia tang it hdn giai doan
Economy and Forecast Review
BAMQ 1: HE SO LAN TOA CUA CAC NHAN TO cAu CGOl CUNG DEN SAN XUAT. THU NH^P VA NH^P KHXU
Lan toa tif cau cuoi ciing den GTSX Lan toa t& cau cuoi ciing de'n thu nhap Lan toa tCfc^ucuS^i cUng d^n nhap kh§'u
Ti€u dung cuoi ciing 1,55 0,731 1,257
Nam 2000 Tong d^u tiT
1,65 0,526 1,476
Xuat khiu 1,53 0,685 1,316
1,71 0,7 1,264
1,27 0,48 1,688
Xu^t khd'u 1,59 0,57 1,504
BANG 2: Nd VA V 6 N CHd sd HCfU CUA DOANH NGHlgP NHA NadC
N(f phai tra (ty ddng) Trung i/(tng Dia pllUtfng Von cliu sd liilu Trung Udng Dia pliUdng Nd pliai tra/vd'n cliu Trung dtfng Dia pliddug Nd DNNN (ty USD)
f~ 2006 T 1 332 570 1 225.038 107.532 416.362 322.501 93.861 3,2 3,8 1,1 83
f 2007 T 1 669 684 i.535 839
133.845 495 670 388.219 107.450 3,4 4,0 1,2 104
r 20O8 T 2 113.186 1 962 185 151.201 654.173 529.046 125.127 3,2 3,7 1,2 130
P " 2 0 0 9 " ^ 2 629.174 2.486 975 142.200 866.476 726.965 139.512 3,0 3,4 1,0 154
P 2010
11)41 709 2.881.728
159 981 960.191 799.331 160.860 3,2 3,6 1,0 163
2011 3 7I7K27 3.166.317 551510 1.139.294 914.993 224301 3,3 3,5 2,5 181 Nguon: Su phai 1 cua doanh nghiep Viet Ham giai doan 2005-2011- long cue Thongki trffdc. V^ xud't khau cung nhu vay, khi tang mdt dong
xua't khau lan toa de'n gia tri gia tang sut giam so vdi giai doan trUdc 18%.
Kdt qua tinh toan trdn con cho tha'y, dau tu dang ngay cdng kem hieu qua, mot dong diu tU bo ra trong giai doan nay de'n san xua't it bon giai doan trUdc (23%). Nguy hiem hon nffa la khi tdc ddng ddn ciu cuoi ciing, dac biet diu tU va xuat khau cua giai doan 2006-2011, thi lai kich thich nhap khd'u tang hdn 14%
so vdi giai doan 2000-2005 (diu tU: nam 2011 Id 1,69 so vdi nam 2000 la 1,48; xulft khau: nam 2011 la 1,5 so^vdi nam 2000_la 1,3) (Bang 1). Dieu nay cho thd'y, ne'u phia^cung ye'u kem, thi bd't ky mot sU gia tang nao d phia cau chi lam tang gid, tham hut thUdng mai va cang thang ve ty gid ma thdi. Va, ne'u tid'p tuc vdi chinh sdch quan ly ciu nhU hien nay, thi nen kinh te lai rdi vao vdng xody lam phat - suy tram.
Nhu vay, viec ndi tran bgi chi ngan sdch de tang
CUdng dau tu cdng khdng nhffng khdng kich thich tang trffdng, md chi tao them nd nin, gay nguy cd lam phdt va tham hut thffdng mai.
Doanh nghidp Id khd'i quan trong nhd't quyet dinh sff thanh bai cua d^t nffdc. Sud't tff nam 2006 ddn nam 2011, cdc doanh nghidp Vidt Nam ndi chung cff cd mot dong thi phdi vay tren 2 dong.
Dac biet, khd'i doanh nghidp nhd nffdc co mot dong vo'n chQ set hffu nhffng phai vay dd'n trdn 3 d6ng (Bang 2). Ty Id nd cda doanh nghidp nha nUdc so vdi ngu6n von chu set hffu cd the con cao hdn nhilu n^u ddnh gid lai tai sdn cua khu vffc nay. Mot nen kinh td', md ty le vay mffdn ciia cd khu vUc kinh td' tU nhan va doanh nghiep nha nUdc diu cao nhU vdy la nin kinh
8
Kmh te va Dir Wtf jte' bd't on, nhdt la khi lam phdt quay lai se trd thdnh md'i nguy cho nen kinh te.
Hdn nffa, 6 khd^i doanh nghiep nha nude, cac tap doan, tdng cdng ty thuoc Trung Udng quan ly cd ty le nd phai d-d so vdi tdng nguon vo'n xa'p xi 4 lin, trong khi ty le ndy ddi vdi cac doanh nghidp nha nude do dia phffdng qudn ly chi tren 1 lan. Td'c do tang vi no cua khdi doanh nghidp nhd nffdc nam 2011 so vdi nam 2006 Id 2,2 lan vd tang binh qudn hang nam vao khoang 16%. Ty le no phdi tra ciia cdc doanh nghidp nha nffdc tff nam 2006 den nay cao hon sd' GDP. Dieu nay CO nghia ca nffdc 1dm trong ca nam cung khdng du di doanh nghidp nha nffdc trd no trong sudt tis nam 2006 den nay.
Mot phffdng phdp khdc dd' chffng minh cho vide ddu tU khdng hidu qua (dau tu qud mffc-Overinvestment) la so sanh giffa thu nhap ve vdn trong nen kinh td' vd vd'n dau tff thuin (khdng bao gom khd'u hao tai san cddinh). Trong mdt sd nam lien tuc, thu nhdp vi vd'n luon nhd hdn tdng dau tU (tffc ty Id thu nhdp tff vdn tren diu tff nhd hdn 1). Dieu nay chffng to nen kinh t^ dang diu tff qua mffc, hieu qua khong dam bao vi todn bg Idi tffc sinh ra tff vd'n khdng bu dap ndi chi phi dau tff. Bieu dd 2 minh hoa cho ty Id nay d Viet Nam, ke't qua dang budn cho thd'y, chung ta dang dau tff qua mffc.
BIEU DO: TY L | THU NHAP TH VON TREN DAG TtT GIAI DOAN 2000-2012
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Nguon: TiSng cue Thong k
KET LUAN
Tff phan tich tren, chung ta co the nit ra mdt sd ke't luan sau:
Mot Id, viec nd cua nen kinh te dudng nhU khdng cd lien quan trUc tie'p de'n tich luy tff ndi bg nin kinh te' thdng qua chi tieu d^ danh.
Hai la, vide tang dau tff cdng khdng thffc sfftdt trong thdi diem hien nay, dieu nay cd thd 1dm GDP tang len mot chiit, nhUng khdng kich thich nhieu dd'n tang trUdng trong trung vd dai han.
Ba la, lang dau tff cdng cd the se chi lam tang no nan, gia ca (lam phdt) va thdm hut thUdng mai.
Vay, viec can 1dm trong nhffng nam tid'p theo la gi?
Theo nhdm tdc gia, chiing ta can cai each manh the che, tao niim tin cho ngUdi dan de khu vUc kinh te'dan doanh dffdc binh dang. Thid't nghT, dd cung Id ndt cd't Idi trong tdi cdcd'u kinh te'hidnnay.Q
TAJXIEUITHAM KHAO
1. Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (2012). Suphdt trien ciia doanh nghiep Viet Nam giai doan 2006-2011, Nxb Thdng ke
2. Biji Trinh, Nguyin Vidt Phong (2013). Khd ndng phuc hoi kinh te- Ca hoi vd thdch thUc, tham luan tai Hoi thao Phuc hdi tang trUdng va tai cd cau kinh te': Cd hoi vd thdch thffc, do Vien Nghien cffu Quan ly Kinh te' Trung Udng td chffc, ngay 22/11/2013
3. Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi and Vu Trung Dien (2011). Economic integration and trade deficit: A case of Vietnam, Journal of Economics and International Finance, Vol. 3 (13), pp. 669- 675, 7 November, 2011
4. Bui Trinh, Nguydn Viet Phong (2013). The Economic Growth and PoHcy Implications in Vietnam, Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, vol. 3, no. 5, 2013, 237-250
Economy and Forecast Review
