TAPCIICdNGTHIIIfNII
CO HOI VA THACH THlfC
CHO NEN KINH TE VIET NAM NAM 2019
• DOAN TRAN NGUYEN
T 6 M T A T :
Theo dtf bdo lang ttfdng kinh te' Viet Nam do Ngan hang The' gidi (WB) cdng bo' mdi ddy, nam 2019, tdng irtfdng kinh te'cua Viet Nam se d mtfc 6,6%. Con theo kich bdn tang trtfdng cho nam 2019 cua Trung tdm ThSng tin vd Dtf bdo kinh te - xa hdi quo'c gia (NCIF), nen kinh te' Viet Nam cd the' dat mffc tang trffdng 6,84% d kich ban cd sd vd 7,02% d kich bdn cao. Dong thdi, viec chiing ta cam ke't va thtfc hien md cffa qudc le' vdi nhffng hiep dinh thtfdng m£ii nhtf CPTPP, FTA... dem de'n cho Viel Nam nhieu cd hgi nhffng cung a'n chffa thach thtfc Idn vdi thi trtfdng npi dia, sffc canh tranh doanh nghiep trong nffdc. Bai vie't nay phan tich mot sd cd hoi va thdch thtfc, ddng thdi dat ra nhiem vu phdt trie'n cua ndn kinh te'Viet Nam trong nam 2019.
Tiif khoa: Tang tffdng kinh te', cd hpi, thdch thffc, Viet Nam.
1. Cd hpi cho nen kinh te' Viet Nam nam 2019
Thii nhd't, ndm 2019, CPTPP chinh thtfc cd hieu Itfc vdi Viet Nam, kem theo dd la FTA giffa Viet Nam va Lien minh chdu Au cung cd hieu Itfc, md ra cd hpi Idn trong viec Ihuc dd'y kinh te"
gitfa Viet Nam vd cdc ntfdc thanh vmn, nhd't la cdc nganh san xua't, dich vu nhtf: Del may, da gidy, che' bie'n thtfc pha'm, dd udng, banh keo.,.
Ddy Id cd hpi gia tdng xud't khau cho nhffng mat hang Viet Nam co Idi the, dac biet ddi vdi cdc m$t hang trffdc day Viet Nam chffa the xud't khau do hang rao thue' quan cdn cao, gid cung se cd the' tie'p can dtfdc thi irtfdng EU vd cac ntfdc thanh vien vdi gia cd canh tranh hdn. Viet Nam cdn cd the' tan dung cd hpi nay de thu hiit dau tU FDI cua cdc ntfdc thanh vien. Mot nen kinh te'ma thuhutdtfdcnhieudau ttf nffdc ngoai thi se cd cd
72 So 10-Thdng 5/2019
hdi de cai thien sff phdt trien kinh te', nang cao ddi sdng cua ngffdi dan. Ben canh dd, thdng qua thanh vien cua hiep dinh mdi la d cac ntfdc co nen kinh id phat trie'n cao, he thdng phdp ludt hoan chinh, chung ta se hgc tap, trao ddi kinh nghiem de hoan thanh he thd'ng phap luat nffdc ta, cung nhtf viec quan ly, di^u hanh ndn kinh te thi irtfdng. Hdn the nffa, chung ta md rdng dtfdc quan he dd'i ngoai, trdnh viec phu thugc vao m§t vai ctfdng qudc khde, dd bi chi phdi ve kinh t^.
Ngoai ra, md cffa hgi nhap se giup chung ta liep nhan dtfdc kinh nghiem mdi trong cong tac qdn ly. tiep thu cdng nghe mdi, la cd hoi tdng Idi nhudn cho doanh nghiep, cd h6i cd ihem viec lam cho ngtfdi lao dgng, cd hdi de' thue day tdng trtfdng kinh te vd ndng cao ddi song cua nhdn dan. Theo ddnh gia, CPTPP giffp ODP Viei Nam tang them 1,32% ttfdng dtfdng 1,7 ty USD, viec
KINH TE
lam lang ttf 20.000 de'n 26.000 lao ddng mdi nam, sd ngtfdi ngheo gidm 0,6 trieu ngtfdi cho de'n nam j 2030, xua't khau tang 4-6%/nam.
Thd hai, ke't qua tang trtfdng khd quan trong nam 2018 la dieu kien thudn Idi, tao da cho tang trtfdng ndm 2019. Nam 2018, hoan thanh 12/12 chi tieu dtfdc Quo'c hgi giag; trong do, cd 8 chi tieu vtfdt vd 4 chi lieu dat ke' hoach, gdp phan thtfc hien thang Idi cac muc tieu phat trie'n kinh te' - xa hoi 5 ndm da de ra. Tang trtfdng kinh le' GDP dat mffc cao hdn chi tieu Qud'c hoi giao (6,5- 6,7%), gan Uen vdi cd ca'u kinh te'va cha'l Iffdng tang trffdng btfdc dau dtfdc cai thien theo htfdng
|t ben vffng, hieu qud, giam dan sff phu thuoc vdg
^ khai thdc tdi nguyen thien nhien, tao ra dpng Itfc
^ mdi de' phat trien.
Thii ba. kinh te' vT m6 ve cd ban vdn dtfdc dam bao, lam phdi dtfdc dtf bdo Irong i^m kiem soat, Ihanh khoan he thong ngdn hang dtfdc duy tri tot, dif trff ngoai hoi dffdc duy tri d mffc cao la cdn cff dd dam bao ty gid va lai sud'l khong cd bie'n dpng qua Idn Id didu kien thudn Idi dn dinh kinh te'vT mo giiip cho tdng trtfdng kinh te' 2019.
Thii tu, mdi trtfdng kinh doanh dtfdc cai thien manh me hdn khi Viet Nam bupc phdi thtfc hien cac cam ke't trong Hiep dinh CPTPP, FTA vd cai thien mdi trtfdng kinh doanh. Ddng thdi Chinh phii cung dang no Itfc "kie'n tao" de lao moi trtfdng kinh doanh thuan Idi hdn cho cac doanh nghiep phdi trien.
2. Thach thtfc cho nen kinh td' Vi^t Nam nam 2019
Viec My cam van dd'i vdi Iran gay ra thtfc le gia dIu giam manh. Trong giai doan 2019-2020, bie'n ddng do'i vdi mat hang nhien lieu se vdn la an sd. Nhieu chuyen gia nhdn dinh cd the' d^y gid dIu dat mtfc lOOUSD/thung, ddng thdi cdnh bao khdng nen dat nhidu ky vong vao Saudi Arabia, ntfdc dtfdc cho la se gidp binh dn gia dau the'gidi. Dieu nay dnh htfdng Idn de'n Viet Nam do Viet Nam la mot ntfdc nhdp khd'u rdng dd'i vdi mat hang xang dau. Hang nam, Viel Nam da nhdp khau rdng xang dau cac loai khoang 4,5-5 ti dd la My, ket qua nay cd nghTa la gia dau cang cao thi tham hut thtfdng mai dd'i vdi mat hang nay se cang Idn. Ddng thdi gid dau tang cao se gdy dnh htfdng b^t Idi de'n thu nhdp va chi lieu
cua cac hd gia dinh, do'i vdi Viet Nam, trong dieu kien thu nhap binh quan dau ngtfdi/GDP con tha'p, stf tac ddng cua gia dau khi tang cao se dnh htfdng ra't nhieu de'n ddi sd'ng ciia ngtfdi dan, vi gid nang Itfdng thtfdng anh htfdng nhieu de'n chi sd'gia lieu dung.
Ngoai ra, cudc chie'n thtfdng mai My - Trung, Brexil hon loan cua Anh hay linh trang nd cong tang cao se anh htfdng tdi thtfdng mai dIu ttf, cung nhtf tdng trtfdng ciia thi trtfdng trong ntfdc, cang thang thtfdng mai ciing xu htfdng bao hp thtfdng mai vd hang rao phi thue' quan dang ngdy cdng gia tang la mot xu the' dien hinh. Dieu nay la do nhieu qud'c gia dang tang ctfdng bdo hd thtfdng mai va dp ddt nhieu hang rao phi thud' quan dd'i vdi hang hda Viet Nam, gay dnh htfdng tieu ctfc tdi tinh hinh xuat kha'u hang hda ndi rieng va boat dpng san xud't ndi chung. Rdng hdn nffa, cupc chie'n tranh thtfdng mai se dan tdi nhffng hau qua khd Itfdng do'i vdi thi trtfdng ngoai hdi, tdi chinh, ttf dd dnh htfdng tdi xua't khau va tang trtfdng kinh te', Vdi dd md kinh te' ISn tdi 90% cua nen kmh te' hien nay, Viel Nam se la mot trong nhtfng qud'c gia cd the' chiu tdn thtfdng nang ne trtfdc cac cu sd'c tdi chinh, thtfdng mai ne'u ndn tang trong ntfdc khong vffng chac.
Ben canh dd viec thtfc thi FTA, CPTPP se tao ra nhffng tac dpng tich cffc thong qua viec giam thue' quan cho cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam vao cdc thi irtfdng dd'i tac. Tuy nhien, tren thffc te', mtfc dp tdc dpng tff cdc bien phdp phi thue' quan se khong nhieu bdi cdc hang rdo bao hd nhtf an todn ve sinh thtfc pha'm, kie'm dich, nguyen tac xua't xtf... gia tang. Ne'u doanh nghiep khdng ddp tfng dtfdc cac tieu chi nay thi se gap khd khan trong xua't khau, du la cd FTA.
Thdm chi, md hinh tang trtfdng mac du cd stf cai thien song chtfa rd ret, tang trtfdng vdn chii ye'u dtfa vdo cdc ngudn Itfc nhtf vd'n dau Itf vd lin dung, trong khi cha't Itfdng, hieu qua sff dung cac ngudn life nay chtfa cao. Dieu nay la do tinh trang lang phi, iha't thodt, chi chtfa dung che' dp, chinh sdch, khdng bd'tri du ngudn vd'n, chd't Itfdng cdng trinh tha'p trong dau ttf vd xay dtfng van chtfa dtfdc gidi quye't can ban. cha't Itfdng the chd' quan ly dau ttf cong Viet Nam cdn chtfa lot so vdi Ihong le qud'c te'mdc du LudtDau ttf cdng da dtfdc ban
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TAP CHi CONG THlTdNG
hanh. Ciing vdi dd, sff sut giam ty trgng dau tff cdng chffa di cung vdi gia tdng ttfdng xtfng ciia dau ttf ttf nhan, nha't la uf nhdn trong ntfdc. Cd ca'u vdn d^u ttf cham thay ddi, vdn dau ttf Nhd ntfdc chiem 37,6%.
Chd't Itfdng lao dpng chtfa dtfdc cdi thien cung nang Itfc khoa hgc - cong nghe d mtfc ihd'p cd the anh htfdng Idi Idi the' canh tranh cua Viet Nam tren thi trtfdng qudc te va kha nang thu hiit cdc ddng vdn tdi Viel Nam. Chi cd tren 23% lao dpng cd bang ca'p, chtfng chi. Trong so' lao dgng cd bang ca'p, chffng chi ihi cd hdn 50% thupc nhdm trinh dp cao dang va dai hpc trd len, trong khi so' cd chffng chi nghe trinh dp trung cS'p chi chie'm 5,42% va chffng chi nghe ngan han chie'm 5,6%.
Cd ca'u lao dgng theo cdc cd'p trinh dd dao tao con bat hdp ly, chtfa thtfc stf phu hdp vdi trinh dd phdt trien kinh te', xa hoi. Ddnh gia nhan vien trong thdi dai so', doanh nghiep nhdn dinh ngffdi lao dgng con ye'u d cac ky nang sff dung cong nghe ttf ddng hda, phan tich dtf lieu, ttf duy he thdng, vdi ty le ttfdng ffng lin Itfdl Id 35,7%, 21,7%, 17,9%. Lanh dao cdc doanh nghiep deu Ihtfa nhdn cong nghe di dgng (mobility), cam bie'n thdng minh (smart sensors) va dien lodn dam may (cloud computing) la 3 cong nghe mang lai ke't qua kha quan cho doanh nghiep vdi xu htfdng gia tang dau ttf trong thdi gian tdi. Tuy nhien, sd Itfdng doanh nghiep dau ttf cho nhffng cong nghe tien tie'n nay cdn qud thd'p.
Hien lai, cd de'n gan 40% doanh nghiep chtfa dau tff cho ba't ky cdng nghe nao. Cd de'n 50%
doanh nghiep cho rang ket qua san xud't, kinh doanh dau nam 2019 se chi d mffc cd ban dn dmh, 37% cho rang chi phi se tdng len va 18,5% dtf doan Idi nhuan se giam.
Ve tdng thi, NCIF nhdn dinh, tang trtfdng nam 2019 cd the vdn giff mffc cao nhd ke' tie'p da tang ttf ndm 2018, nhffng trong trung va ddi ban, khi nen kinh le" trong ntfdc "nga'm du" tdc dpng iff ben ngoai se ddn tdi nhtfng he qua lan tda tdi toan bd nen kinh te" va chudi san xua'l trong ntfdc, luc dd mdi la dnh htfdng Idn nha't. Dac ihu nen kinh te Viet Nam khi gap riii ro se bd'p thu rd'l nhanh, trong khi chuye'n hda dtfdc cdc cd hpi lai cham. Vi the', ne'u khong tranh thu giai doan nay lich luy cdc thuan Idi de' lao nen tdng vffng vang
thi se khd chd'ng chiu dtfdc cac cu soc trong thdi gian tdi,
3. Nhiem vu cho Vi^t Nam trong nSm 2019 Ke hoach phdt trie'n kinh le' - xa hpi nam 2019 da dtfdc Qud'c hgi thong qua ngay 8/11/2018; theo dd 12 chi tieu chii ye'u dtfdc de ra la; Tdng san pham trong ntfdc (GDP) tang 6,6% - 6,8%; Tdc do tang gid tidu diing (CPI) khoang 4%; Tongkini ngach xud't kha'u lang 7% - 8%; Ty le nhdp sieu so vdi tdng kim ngach xua't kha'u dtfdi 3%; Tong von dau ttf phat Irien todn xa hOi khoang 33% - 34%
GDP; Ty le hd ngheo (theo chuan ngheo tiep can da chieu) giam 1 % - 1,5%, ridng cdc huyen ngh^o giam 4%; Ty le tha'l nghiep d khu vtfc thanh thi dtfdi 4%; Ty le lao dpng qua dao tao dat 60% • 62%, trong do ty le lao dpng qua dao tao cd van bang, chffng chi dat 24% - 24,5%; Sd giifcing benh/mgl van dan (khong tinh gitfdng tram y le xa) dat 27 gitfdng; Ty le ddn so' Iham gia bao hiem y le' dat 88,1%; Ty le khu cong nghiep, khu che xud't dang hoat ddng cd he thdng xff ly ntfdc thai lap trung dat neu chuan moi trtfdng 89%; Ty le che phu rtfng dat 41,85%; Phd'n da'u thu hiit tren 18 trieu lifdl khdch qud'c le'; lang irtfdng khu vtfc dich vu dat 7,5%...
De thtfc hien dtfdc nhffng chi tieu dd ra, nam 2019 va tie'p Iheo, VielNam tie'p tuc tdp trung cSi thien moi trtfdng dau ttf, kinh doanh, thiic day tang trtfdng kinh le"; tao chuye'n bie'n thtfc cha'l hdn trong thtfc hien cac dot phd chie'n Itfdc, cd cd'u lai n^n kinh te gan vdi ddi mdi mo hinh tang trtfdng; day manh ddi mdi sdng tao, ffng dung khoa hoc, cong nghe Uen lien va tan dung cd hieu qua cupc cdch mang cong nghiep lan thtf ttf; htfdng tdi dn dinh kinh te vT mo, kiem soat lam phdt, ndng cao nang sud't, cha'l Itfdng, hieu qud, tinh Itf chff va siic canh tranh cua nen kinh te'; tang ctfdng qudn ly tai nguyen, bao ve mdi trtfdng, phong, chd'ng thien tai, tfng phd vdi bie'n ddi khi hau; dd'y manh d\
each hanh chinh, cai each ttf phdp, tinh gon bo may, tinh gidn bien che'; cd cau lai dpi ngii c6ng chtfc, vien chtfc, nang cao hieu Itfc, hieu qua chi dao dieu hdnh va thtfc thi phap luat; quye't lie!
phdng, chdng tham nhung; thtfc hanh tid't ki6m, chdng lang phi; cung cd qudc phong, an ninh; bio dam trdt ttf, an lodn xa hgi; ndng cao hieu qua cong tac ddi ngoai va hpi nhap qudc te' •
74 So 10-Thdng 5/2019
KINHTE
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Bdo cdo Tnen vong kinh te2019 cua OECD.
2. Bo Ke'hoach vd Dau lU (2018). Khung Chinh sdch kinh te Viet Nam. Diin ddn Cdi cdch vd Phdt trien.
3. LiSn hiep cdc Hoi Khoa hoc vd Kinh te Viet Nam (2018). Ddnh gid tdng tnfdng gan vdi ca cdu lai nSn kmh te den 2020, De tdi tU vdn phdn bien do Hoi Khoa hoc Kinh te Viet Nam tien hdnh.
4. Qudc hgi (2018). Nghi quyel vi ke hoach phdt trien KTXH ndm 2019.
5. WEF (2018). Global Competitiveness Report 4.0 in 2018.
Ngay nhan bai: 25/4/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va stfa chifa: 5/5/2019 Ngay cha'p nh^n dang bai: 15/5/2019
Thdng tin tdc gid:
ThS. DOAN TRAN NGUYEN Khoa Kinh te'cdsoT
Trtftfng Dai hpc Kinh te' Ky thuSt Cdng nghiep
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR VIETNAM'S ECONOMY IN 2019
• Master. DOAN TRAN NGUYEN Faculty of Fundamental Economics University of Economics - Technology for Industries
ABSTRACT:
According to World Bank's recent forecast about Vietnam's economic growth, Vietnam's economic growth is expected to reach at 6.6% in 2019. Meanwhile, the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) of Vietnam forecasts the country's economy may grow by 6.84% to 7.02% in 2019. In addition, free trade agreements that Vietnam has joined bring many opportunities but also great challenges for the domestic market and domestic companies. Tiiis article analyzes a number of opportunities, challenges, and econgmic developinggoalsofVietnam'seconomy in2019.
Keywords: Econgmic growth, opportunities, challenges, Vietnam.
So 10-Thang 5/2019 75
