^hCH\ll^•7Mng06/20Bi
INHUlVG "DIEM NHAN"
CUA KINH TEVIET NAM NUfADAU NAM 2013
L E T H ! LAN PHlfONG - Cong ty Co phdn MISA
Ndm 2013 vdn Id ndm khd khdn chung cda nin kinh tidiigidi ndi chung vd Viit Nam ndi riing. Bdi viit nay si diira nhihig kit qud noi bgt cda nin kinh teViit Nam nda ddu ndm 2013, tddddugra mat sd kiin nghi nbdmtiiuc day boat dgng sdn xudt kinh doanh cda cdng dong doanh nghi^ ndi riing vd nin kinb tindi diung.
Nhurng " ^ e m nhan" cua nen k i n h te
TTiiI' nhai, m\ic tieu CPI cudi nam nay dudi 1 con so la tuong doi chdc chan theo du bao cua Ngan hang Phat trien chau A (ADB). Cung theo ADB, lgm phat trung binh nam 2013 dy kien se vao khoang 7,5% tai thdi diem cuoi nam 2013, tang len 8,2% trong 2014, muc thap hon so vdi dy bao tnrdc day.
Thd hai, GDP ea nam nay se tang d muc eao hon ndm ngoai, tii 5,2%-5,5%. Rat cd the 2013 se la nam thu hai lien tiep ghi nhan kinh te Viet Nam cd miic tang trudng GDP ca nam thap hon muc trung binh cua khu vi^. ADB hg dy bao tang trudng GDP nam 2013 cua Vi?t Nam xuong con 5,2% (so vdi muc 5,7% da dua ra 6 thang trudc dd) va se tang len mue 5,6% trong nam 2014. Trong bao cdo Trien vpng Kinh te Toan eau cdng bd hdm 16/4, Quy Tien te quoc te (IMF) du bao, nam 2013 tdc dp tang trudng GDP Viet Nam se dgt khoang 5,2%, tdng len 5,5% vao nam 2018. Trong Bao cao dieu tra tinh hinh kinh t e - x a hpi khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong cua UNDP trong nam 2013 eong bo hdm 18/4 eung eho rdng nen kinh te Vi^t Nam se lay lgi da tdng hudng vao 6 thang cuoi nam 2013 va GDP ca nam se tdng len muc 5,5%.
Thd ba, von dau tu xa hpi ttr khu vuc ngoai Nha nude se cd tdc dg tang cao hon toe dg chung, nen ty trpng trong tong von dau tu toan xa hpi se cao hon cung ky nam tmoc (quy 1/2013 dgt 36,9% so vdi 34,9%>
ndm 2012). Day la xu hudng tieh cyc trong qua trinh CO ca'u Igi nguon von dau tu xa hpi va la ket qua ghi nhgn budc dau cua thyc hi?n Nghi quyet 02/NQ-CP cua Chinh phu ban hanh dau nam 2013.
Thir hr. thu hut dau tu nude ngoai (FDI) hong nam
2013 dy kien se tang mgnh so vdi nam 2012; dong thdi, vdn giai ngan eiing se tang hon so vdi cimg ky trudc va ed the dat chi tieu thu hut tdi 16,3 ty USD so vdi miie du kiCTi 13 - 14-ty USD cua ke hogeh da thdng qua cho ndm nay. Theo ADB, Vif t Nam tiep tyc la diem den hap din ddi vdi FDI.
Thd nam, tong kim nggch hang hda xuat khau se dgt miic 126 ty USD va tgo dgng luc tich cyc cho tang trudng, viec lam va on dinh kmh te chung. Hien tupng nhap sieu se h d lai cimg vdi bep tuc thang du can can thanh toan va dy tru ngoai t^ tang, ty gid dn dinh.
Thang du thuong mai dy kien se dgt mue ky luc 12,5 ty USD hong nam 2013 va thang du can can tai khoan vang Iai tiep tuc tang hong nam nay va se giam nhe hong nam 2014.
Tku sdu, CO hgi phuc hoi va md rpng san xuat ddi vdi mgt sd doanh nghiep (DN) dang rd hon, nhat la vdi cac DN eo phuong an tai cau tnic hieu qua va tiep can dupe vdi cac nguon von, nguon cung cap thiet bi, may moc gia re, tham gia ngay cang chat che, hi^u qud vao qua trinh tai eau true, phan cdng lao dgng va hpp tac kinh te chung, cac chuoi cung ung va gia tri gia tang tren thi tnrdng trong nude va quoc te... Vi^c Chinh phu tiidng qua va tried khai cac Nghi quyet 01, Nghi quyet 02 va De an tai eo cau tdng the nen kinh te hong quy 1/2013 vdi nd lue giam cac ganh ngng lai suat va eae ganh nang tai chinh, the che cho DN, sy gia tang cac hoat dgng M&A cimg voi lan sdng tai cau tnic cac DNNN cung nhu toan bp nen kinh te da, dang va se gop phan dang ke cai thi?n kinh te ca cap vi md, cung nhu vi md.
Thu bdy, DN dang ky thanh lap mdi thap hon so DN dimg hoat dgng va pha san cho thay hoat dgng
1!?
V NGHltN curu-TRAOMil
san xuat - kinh doanh oia DN van ehua dugc cai thien.
Theo Bg Ke hoach va Dau tu, hong quy 1/2013, ca nude cd 15.707 DN dang ky thanh Igp mdi vdi so von dang ky 79.389 ty ddng. So vdi quy 1/2012 thi so DN dang ky Ihanh lgp mdi giam 6,8% va so von dang ky giam 16,1%. Trong quy 1/2013, ea nude eo 2.272 DN hoan thanh cac thu tyc giai the DN, giam 14% so vdi quy 1/2012 va giam 8,1% so vdi quy IV/2012. Ciing trong quy 1/2013, ea nude cd 13.011 DN khd khan phai dyng hoat dpng. Trong dd, 3.567 DN dang ky tam ngimg hoat dgng va 9.444 DN ngung hogt dpng, nhung chua\
hoan thanh thii tyc ddng ma so thue.
Thu- tdm, ng xa'u, hang tdn kho, sue mua th; tnrdng va kha nang ha'p thu von cua DN Uiap van Id nhimg nut that kinh te ddng quan nggi, mge du theo bao
Nhin chung, nhtJTng diem nhifn kinh te Idm nhiit trong ndra diu nam 2013 v^ ctf bdn van Ik nhurng vin tfe ton da cua nam 2012, trong d6 n6i bdt Id nhurng nut thM vi nd xiu, thdo gd khd khdn cho DN, cdi cdch DNNN, qudn ly diu tu cdng vd ntf cdng, hdm ndng trd lai thj trudng bat ddng sdn.
eao eua Ngan hang Nha nude (NHNN) np xau da cd sy cai thien ve ty le, giam tu 8% xuong cdn 6%;
cung nhu dang cd dau hieu tich eye ehuyen ddi ddng san pham nha d xa hpi tren thi trudng bat dgng san.
Trong khi dd, toe dp tdng tdng mue ban le hang hoa va doanh thu dieh vu tieu dimg khdng cao cho thay tdng eau trong nude giam. Theo bao cao danh gia kinh te vi md quy 1/2013 cua Uy ban Giam sat tai chinh qudc gia, tinh den thdi diem 1/3/2013 chi sd ton kho cua nganh edng nghiep che bien tang 16,5%
so vdi cimg ky nam 2012. Do vay, dii h^ thong ngan hang da giam mgnh lai suat thi tin dyng van chua the eai thi?n.
Thd chin, ty gia on dinh la tin hi?u tich cyc cho hen Idnh te vd ty gid nam 2013 se tang khdng qua 2% nhu cam ket cua NHNN. Bdo cao dua ra ngay 23/4/2013 oia NHNN ve tinh hinh hoat dpng ngan hang nam 2012 va 3 thang dau nam 2013 eiing cho biet, lugng ngoai t? NHNN mua dupe trong quy 1/2013 tang gap 3 Ian so vdi cimg ky, dua quy md dy tru ngoai hoi dgt miic tuong duong thdng l | quoc te la 12 tuan nhap khau. Theo bao cao vira eong bo cua Ngan hang The gidi, lugng kieu hoi vao Vi^t Nam nam 2012 dat 10 ty USD, diing thii hai E)dng Nam A va dung thii 9 the gidi. Vdi hgng thai ngoai t? nhu vgy, NHNN hoan toan cd kha nang can thiep hong trudng hpp can thiet va gia USD se ehi dao dpng trong bien dp cho phep.
Thd mifiTi, thu NSNN tiep tifc doi m$t vdi khong it ap lyc; khi thu ngan saeh quy 1/2013 chi dgt 20,6 o, so vdi tiidng fliudng phai dgt 25-27%. Ap Itfc cdn cloi NSNN eon bi gia tang bdi nHeu nguy co bat nga ye hien tupng thdi tiet cyc doan va dich benh hong chan nudi.
IMot s6 dir l)do vd kien nghj
Nhin Chung, nhimg diem nhan kinh te Idn nhat trong niia dau nam 2013 ve co ban vin la nhung van de ton du cua nam 2012, hong dd ndi bgt la nhung nut that ve np xau, thao go khd khan cho DN, cdi cdch DNNN, qudn ly dau hr cdng va ng cdng, ham ndng h d lgi thi huong bat dgng san. TheO^ADB, khd nang duy hi egnh tranh va thiic day tang hudng kinh te trd lgi 7 - 8% se phy thupc vao dieu ki#n thai tiet thugn lpi cho san xuat luong thyc, ty gid tien dong on dinh, thyc hi$n thanh tieh trinh tai co eau va cai thi?n mdi trudng kinh doanh mpt each toan di^n hon, tgpftrung vao kiem soat quy md n p ^ a u , Janh mgnh hoa h? thong ngan hang va tai cau tnic DNNN. ' '^'-
Nam 2013, kha nang Viet Nam dgt mdc tdnig trudng GDP cao hon nam 2012 la kha ch^c c h ^ ; cdn mye ti&i lgm phat thap hon nam 2012 la kha khd khan, vi CPI eua quy 1/2013 da chiem gan 37% mye tieu toe dp tang gia tieu dimg khoang 6-6,5% cua ca nam ma Chinh phu de ra; trong khi, thdi gian tdi se tang luong va mpt' so dia phuong tiep tyc tang gia v i ^ phi theo Thong tu lien tich 04 va tang hpc phi nam hgc 2013- 2014 theo Nghi dinh 49/ND-CP; dp lyc tang gia di0n do hgn hdn va tang gid than eung dang h i ^ hihi...
Trong bdi canh do, de tiep tyc cai thi?n tinh hinh, nhat la gd khd cho DN va duy tri dpng lyc phat trien kinh te, cac gjai phap can dupe tried khai dong bp va quyet Ii?t hon theo hudng giam nhp ddng thdi ed ba ganh ngng cho DN va nen kinh te, dd la chi phi tdi chinh, chi phi von va chi phi hanh chinh.
Theo do, ve phia DN, can chii dpng tiep tyc gidm gia ban, dua hang hda ve nong thon, thuc day tdi co cau ca ve danh myc dau tu va san pham, lao dpng va quan hi, ngudn vdn va quan trj, can dua ra cac phuong an kinh doanh hi?u qua de vay von ngan hang d§ dang, tiet giam chi phi hoat dpng...
Ve phia eo quan quan ly, can hoan t h i ^ co so phap ly, khuyen khich tiiu hut FDI va cac hogt dgng mua lgi va sap nhap hong qua trinh tai cau true DN va chuy&i nhupng d y an kmh doanh; Tiep hic hoan thi?n h?
thdng phap luat ve DN ddng bp, minh bgch va hi?u qua, tgo hanh lang phap ly binh ddng cho DN trong va ngoai nude khi gja nhgp tiii trudng; khoi tii6ng va on dinh cdc tiii hudng <Sau ra cho nen kinh te, nhat la
cho sdn phain ndng nghiep... ^
