So 257, Thang Ba ndm 2012
DO Ll/O'NG TAC DONG CUA PHAT TRIEN
•
DU LICH QUOC TE DEN PHAT TRIEN KINH TE TRUONG HOP CAC NUOC DONG N A M A
(ASEAN)
HUYNH TRyaNG HUY*, NGUYEN PHU SON**, NGO MY TRAN* & VO H 6 N G PHU'gNG*
Moi quan he giiea phdt trien du lieh vd phdt trien kinh te tir lau dd dugc xdc dinh vd do luang.
Muc dich trpng tdm ciia nghien ciru ndy Id do luang moi quan he giii-a hai yeu td tren ddi v&i ede nu&c Dong Nam A trong giai dogn 2001-2009. Kit qud u&c lugng cho thdy su phdt triin cua ngdnh du lich qudc ti cd vai trd tich cue doi v&i phdt triin kinh ti, cu the Id nang eao thu nhgp binh quan dau ngu&i. Han nira, nhihig quoc gia ndo cd muc do thi hda cao thu&ng thi hiin tdc dpng ciia ngdnh du lich den tdng thu nhgp binh quan dau ngu&i eao han. Cd thi ndi, chuyin doi kinh ti theo hu&ng phdt triin cong nghiip vd dich vu a cde nu&c Dong Nam A trong th&i gian qua khong nhitng giup cdc nu&c ndy dgt toe dp tang tru&ng kinh ti cao, md cdn gdp phan ndng eao thu nhgp cho ngu&i dan trong nin kinh ti.
Tie khda: Phdt trien du lieh qude te. phdt trien kinh ti. thu nhdp binh qudn ddu ngu&i, ASEAN
1. Gi6i thieu
Nhiing lgi ich kinh te thudng dugc xem la mdt trong nhirng nguyen nhan quan trgng thue day chinh phil eua cac qudc gia (ke ca phat trien va dang phat triln) dua ra nhirng chien luge phat trien nganh du lich qudc te trong nhimg thap ky gan day. Tam quan trgng cua phat trien du ljch qudc te ddi vdi phat trien kinh te tir lau da dugc xac djnh (Ivanov & Webster, 2007; Lee & Chang, 2008; Sequeira & Ma9as, 2008). Thuc te eho thay rang ngudn thu tir nganh du lich qudc te khdng nhiing ddng gdp tich cue vao tdng san phim qudc ngi (GDP) cua mgt qudc gia, ma cdn gdp phan nang cao ddi sdng, thu nhap cho ngudi dan dia phuang lien quan den viec lam va san phim du lich (Brau va cdng su, 2007).
Mac dil nen kinh te the gidi phai ddi phd vdi nhiing tac ddng rat ldn tir cac cugc khung hoang kinh t6 trong vai nam gan day; ma hau qua cua nd thudng din dSn that nghiep, giam thu nhap, tang gia ca hang hda v.v. nhii'ng con sd thdng ke lien quan den du ljch quoc t6 van the hien xu hudng phat trien.
* ThS, Trwdng Dai hgc Can Tha
** TS, Trwang Dai hgc Can Tha
Email: huvseba(S>.amaiL com (Huynh Trwdng Huy)
Theo thdng ke ciia Td chiic Du ljch The gidi (World Tourism Organization) [1], sd du khach qudc te [2]
va doanh thu tir du khach qudc te [3] trong nam 2010 tuang iing la 935 trieu lugt va 920 ti USD, tang 6,7% ve lugng du khach va 7,5% ve doanh thu so vdi nam 2009. Bang 1 ben dudi eung cap thdng tin cu the han ve xu hudng phat trien ciia nganh du ljch the gidi.
Cd the thay rang nganh du ljch the gidi da dugc phuc hdi sau khiing hoang kinh te trong nam 2008 va 2009 va dat tdc do tang trudng kha cao, tuong ling vdi tdc do tang trudng kinh te the gidi. Su tang trudng eao cua nganh du ljch nam 2010 cd the dugc giai thich bdi cac sir kien ldn mang tinh toan cau, di6n hinh nhu World Cup 2010 tai Nam Phi, Olympics miia Ddng tai Canada. UNWTO du bao rang: Tdc do tang tru'dng eiia nganh du lich vin dat d mire 4-5% trong nam 2011, trong dd, cac qude gia chau A Thai Binh Duong dat tdc do tang trudng cao (7-9%) sau khu vuc Trung Ddng (7-10%).
PHAT TRIEN DU LICH
11
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE
Sd'257, Th^ng Ba n i m 2012
Bang 1 . Tinh hinh du Ijch the gidi giai do^n 2000-2010
Chi tieu Du khach
Doanh thu
Toe dg tang trudng Du khach
Doanh lhu - Kinh te the gidi^
DVT Tri^u lugt
TIUSD
%
%
%
2000 682 560
2005 810 829
5,0 7,1 3,6
2006 856 899
5,3 7,8 4,0
2007 914 1.038
6,4 13,4
3,9
2008 930 1.144
1,7 9,3 1,5
2009 894 1.029
-4,0 -12,1
-1,9
2010 935 1.070
6,7 3,8 4,2 Nguon: To chu'c Du lich The gioi va ^ Ngan hang The gidi.
Chau A Thai Binh Duang dugc danh gia 1^ mgl trong nhirng khu vuc thu hut nhieu du khach qude tc trong hai thap nien gan day (sau chau Au). Theo thdng ke cua UNWTO, chau A Thai Binh Duong la khu vuc dan dau the gidi ve tdc do tang trudng ciia sd lugng du khach qudc te (13% trong nam 2010). Hinh 1 cho thay co cau du khach qudc te den cac qude gia dang phat trien ed xu hudng tang dan, trong khi dd cd xu hudng giam dan ve ti trgng sd du khach qude te den chau Au va chau My.
Su phat trien ve kinh te va du ljch qudc te cua cae qude gia dang phat trien d khu vuc chau A da thu hilt su quan tam ddi vdi nhieu nha nghien eiiu kinh te. Trong dd, sir ndi trdi cua cac qudc gia thude khdi
ASEAN da cung cap nhicu bang chirng nghien ciiu quan trgng ve ddng gdp ciia du ljch qudc te den phat trien kinh tc nhu la mdt bd phan quan trgng trong nen kinh Ic (Chon, 2000; Hitchcock & King, 1993).
Vi vay, myc dich trgng lam ciia nghien ciiu nay nham cung cap nhirng bang chimg udc lugng \'e tac ddng ciia nganh du ljch qudc te ddi vdi phat trien kinh te ciia cac qudc gia ASE.-W, ciing nhu thirc trang eiia VN.
Ndi dung tiep theo cua nghien ciiu nay duge trinh bay nhu sau: Muc 2 luge khao li thuyet \a bang chimg ude lugng ve mdi quan he giira nganh du ljch va phat trien kinh te; myc 3 md ta ngudn dii lieu, cac
2010
2000
1990
0%
57,3 16,2 f a: 18.8
60,3
r Mi'?ii'i!.E'|t»ii n , y i i «-iihi »iiJ 1I12.8
4,1 3.6
21.2 - ^ ^ s f ^
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% r
D Chdu Au D ChSu A 7BD D Chdu My D ChSu Phi IB Toing Odng
Hinh 1 . Cd cau du khach quoc te den cac qudc gia dang phat trien Nguon: To chuc Du Lich the gidi (2010) [4].
12
P H A T TRlfeN DU LICHSd 257, Thdng Ba n5iill20i2
bien ude lugng, va trinh bay md hinh ude lugng tae dgng cua nganh du lich doi vdi phat triin kinh t§;
mue 4 trinh ket qua phan tich va kiSm dinh gia thuyet cua mo hinh udc lugng; muc 5 dua ra mgt vai diem ket luan quan trgng.
2. Phat trien du lich qudc te va phat trien kinh te
2.1. Nhu-ng con so
Phat trien kinh te theo hudng thay ddi ca ciu kinh te da dugc de cap trong li thuyet kinh le cd dien vao giiia the ky 20 va dugc cac qudc gia dang phat trien ap dung trong nhiing thap ky gan day. Cu the la, su thay ddi tir nen san xuat ndng nghiep truyen thdng sang nen san xuat cdng nghiep tirng budc hien dai va chu trgng phat trien djch vu.
Nganh du ljch qudc te dugc xem la mgt nhan td quan trgng trong phat trien dich vy ndi rieng va phat trien kinh te ndi chung d hau het cac qude gia (Brau va cgng su, 2007; Hampton, 1998; Kaplan & (^elik, 2008; Lee & Chang, 2008). Sd lieu thdng ke dugc trinh bay d Bang 1 cho thay trong nam 2010 cd den 935 trieu lugt du khach qudc te di du ljch ngoai nude va hg da chi hom 1.000 ti USD tai cac diem den. Doanh thu tir du khach qudc te chiem 6,42%
tdng gia trj xuat khau va 1,75%) tdng GDP ciia the gidi (UNTWO, 2010).
Ddi vdi khu vuc ASEAN, nhiing con sd lien quan den nganh du ljch rat an tugng. Sd lugt du khach den cac khu vuc nay tang dan tir 36,9 trieu lugt nam 2000 len d8n 65 trieu lugt nam 2009; chiem tuang ling 32,7%) tdng du khach cua khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duang va 6,7% tdng du khach ciia the gidi (UNTWO, 2010). Dien hinh mdt sd quoc gia nhu Thai Lan, Singapore, Indonesia cd nganh du ljch phat triin rit manh va nganh nay ddng vai trd quan trgng trong phat trien kinh te (Vi du: du ljch dugc xem la nganh kinh te hang dau ciia Thai Lan, nganh diing thii hai d Philippines, va thii ba d Singapore).
Trong khi dd, mgt sd qudc gia cd nganh du ljch mdi bit diu phat trien nhu Campuchia, VN va Lao ciing da dat dugc nhiing thanh tuu an tugng trong viec thu hiit du khach quoc te. Cu the la sd du khach den VN tang manh tir 187.000 nam 1990 len den 2,3 trieu nam 2001 va 3,7 trieu nam 2009. CJ Lao, con so nay
ciing tang tuang irng tir 173.000 nam 2001 len 1,2 trieu nam 2009 (UNWTO, 2010).
Ddi vdi VN, su phat trien cua nganh du ljch dugc the hien qua nhirng chi tieu sau day: Thir nhat, ngudn vdn dau tu FDI vao nganh du ljch trong giai doan 1988-2010 la 19,7 ti USD, chiem 9,3% long ngudn vdn FDI vao VN {Nien gidm thdng ke, 2010).
Han 400 du an dau tu vao nganh du ljch chu yeu lien quan den cac ITnh vuc nha hang, khach san, khu nghi dudng, san golf, khu giai tri va djch vu du ljch {Vietnamnews, 2010). Thii hai, doanh thu tir nganh du ljch tang manh tir 1,1 ti USD nam 2001 len den 3,6 ti USD nam 2009; trong dd, cac td chirc kinh doanh du ljch ngoai nha nude va FDI chiem tuong ling 53,7% va 31,7% tdng doanh thu. Theo Nien gidm thdng ke (2010), myc dich du khach den VN de
du ljch, tham quan chiem 59,8%, de kinh doanh chiem 19,8%). Thii ba, nganh du ljch ddng gdp tich cue trong phat trien kinh te, chiem 16,6% trong GDP nam 2009. Ddng thdi, nganh nay ciing tao 450.000 viec lam true tiep va khoang 1 trieu viec lam gian tiep (Nien gidm thdng ke, 2010).
Sy phat trien du ljch ciia ASEAN trong thdi gian qua dugc danh gia gan lien vdi nhiing nhan td sau day: Thii nhat, sir khac biet ve van hda va san pham du ljch (nhu du ljch sinh thai) la nguyen nhan quan trgng thu hut du khach qudc te. Thii hai, su hgp tie va xiic tien phat trien du ljch giiia cac qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN la nhan td bd sung cho sir phat trien.
Thii ba, nen kinh te mdi ndi ciia mdt sd qudc gia nhu VN, Indonesia da thu hiit su quan tam dau tu cua the gidi. Thii tu, cac sy kien van hda, kinh te-chinh trj cap cao (nhu Hgi nghj APEC, A-Au) dugc td chiic d khu vyc ciing dugc xem la nhan td quan trgng de quang ba hinh anh cua ASEAN ra the gidi.
Cd the thay rang nganh du ljch qudc te da mang lai ca hdi phat trien kinh le the gidi ndi chung va khu vuc ASEAN ndi rieng. O gdc do vT md, nganh du ljch ddng gdp tich cyc cho can can thanh toan ciing nhu thu hiit ngudn vdn FDI vao nen kinh ti.
Vai trd tich cyc khac ciia nganh du ljch la tao ca hdi phat trien cho cac nganh khac nhu van tai (hang khdng, dudng bg...), xay dung, nganh nghi truyen thdng (san pham du lich). C) gdc do vi md, nganh du lich cdn tao ca hgi viec lam va thu nhap cho ngudi dan dia phuang.
P H A T TRitN DU MCH
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PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Sd257, Thdng Ba ndm 2012
2.2. Phuang phdp u&c lugng
Tam quan Irgng cua nganh du ljch tloi vdi phiil Iricn kinh Ic lir lau dii dugc xac djnh va trd Ihanh van de thu hill su quan lam cua nhicu nha nghien ciru kinh Ic. Do dd, phuang phap udc lugng mdi quan h?
giira hai yeu td tren cung kha da dang, phy thudc quan Irgng \ao ngudn dii lieu siui cd. Nhin chung, dii lieu nghien ciru \c chu dc nay Ihudng md la dudi dang mdt chudi thcri gian ciia cac quan sat ddc lap (nhu qudc gia. \ung, linh...), dugc ggi la "Panel Data" Thdng thudng, phuang phiip udc lugng mdi quan he tren dugc md Ui dudi dang md hinh kinh tc lugng, Irong dd cho phep ciic he sd udc lugng thay ddi theo dac dicm cua quan sal va Ihco thdi gian (Cameron, 2005):
y. =0^,i-^fti,^i,^^'i, i = l^-.N va t = 1 T (1)
Trong do:
Yjt la bien phy thudc.
X„ la \ec to gdm cac yeu td giai thich.
Ujt la sai sd udc lugng.
i la chi sd cac quan sat ddc lap (nhu qudc gia, tinh. cdng ty).
t la chi sd chudi thdi gian.
Dua vao md hinh kinh te lugng cd dang tdng quat nhu phuang trinh (1), cac nha nghien eiiu thudng udc lugng mirc do tac ddng cua nganh du ljch den phat trien kinh te trong nhiing bdi eanh khac nhau.
Vi du, Kaplan & ^elik (2008), Durbarry (2004) sir dung bien GDP (dudi dang logarit) nhu la yeu td phu thudc trong md hinh udc lugng. Trong khi dd, mdt nghien cim khac ve sy phat trien nhanh cua cac qudc gia cd nganh du ljch mdi ndi, Brau va cgng sy (2007) do ludng tac ddng cua du lich den tdc do tang trudng thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (nhu la bien phu thudc). Gan day, Sequeira & Mapas (2008), Martin va cdng sy (2004) sir dyng bien thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (dudi dang logarit) de do ludng sy thay ddi cua yeu td xuat phat tir tac dgng cua cac yeu td lien quan den nganh du ljch nhu ti trgng doanh thu du ljch trong GDP, ti le du khach qudc te tren tdng dan sd.
3. Dli' lieu va md hinh kinh te lu'dng 3.1. Dd- lipu vd md td bien
Du- Iicu dugc sir dyng trong nghien cim chii yeu dugc lhu thap lir thong kc ciia Td chiic Du ljch Thi gidi, bao gdm nhirng thdng lin Iicn quan den cac chi lieu vc kinh ti vT md va du ljch ciia cac 8 qudc gia ciia ASEAN (Brunei va Myanmar khdng dugc de cap trong nghien cim nay do sd lieu chua day du), trong giai doan 2001-2009. Vi vay, ngudn dir lieu dugc md la dudi dang mgl "panel", vdi i = 8 va I = 9.
Hai chi tieu quan trgng Ihudng dugc sir dung de danh gia vc nganh du ljch ciia mgt qudc gia la so lugt du khach qudc Ic {Arrivals A) va doanh lhu {Receipts R) lir du khach qudc tc trong mdt nam nao dd. Nhin chung, chi ticu doanh thu {R) dugc su dung phd bicn ban va dugc tinh loan dudi dang li le trong GDP {RGDP) nham the hien mirc do chuyen mdn hda cua nganh du ljch Irong nen kinh te (Brau va cgng sy, 2007; Sequeira & Ma^as, 2008). Chi tieu quan trgng the hien sy phat trien kinh te la thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi {pGDP) \a thudng dugc ehgn nhu la bien phy thudc de danh gia su tac dong ciia nganh du ljch den phat trien kinh te (Eugenio- Martin va cdng sy, 2004; Sequeira & Ma^as, 2008).
Ben canh chi tieu chuyen mdn hda cua nganh du ljch, hai chi tieu vT md - do md ciia nen kinh te va li le dan thanh thj ciing ddng vai ird quan trgng doi vdi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi. Cu the la, do md cua nen kinh tc {O) dugc xac djnh bang ti sd giiia tdng gia trj xuat nhap khau va GDP \ a am chi su tir do hda thuang mai qudc te ciia mdt qudc gia khi 0 >
0. Neu 0 = 0 nghTa la nen kinh le ddng cua. Y nghTa ea ban cua ti sd nay the hien sy ty do hda thuang mai se thu hut nha dau tu nude ngoai tim hieu ca hoi dau tir va dan den sy di lai giiia cac qudc gia. Theo Nien gidm thdng ke 2010, gan 20% du khach qudc te den VN vdi li do lien quan den edng viec kinh doanh eua hg (Men gidm thdng ke, 2010). Hom niia, chi tieu nay la mgt bg phan trong GDP va se anh hudng trye tiep den thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi. Cuoi cimg, ti le dan sd thanh thj (U) dugc xem la chi tieu quan trgng cd tuang quan thuan vdi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (Kojima, 1996).
14
PHATTRieNDUUCHSd'257, Thdng Ba nim 2012
Bang 2. Thdng ke md ta cac bien
Chi tieu
pGDP RGDP 0 U
DVT
USD
%
%
%
Trung binh
5.360 2,43 154,6
48,0
Do lech chuan
9.798 1,38 106,1
25,8
Nho nhat
306 0,64 45,5 17,5
Lo-n nhat
39.950 4,95 438,1
100,0
pGDP, = a, + ^a,N, + J3„RGDP, +
Nguon: Tinh loan tu du lieu cua To chuc Du ijch The gidi.
Thdng tin tir Bang 2 cho thay bien phu thudc (pGDP) cd do lech chuan ldn hon gia trj trung binh ciia nd, nghTa la khdng cd phan phdi chuan. Vi vay, viec chuyen ddi bien nay trudc khi udc lugng la rat can thiet nham tao ra phan phdi gan nhu phan phdi chuan va cho ket qua udc lugng tdt ban (Chatterjee
& Hadi, 2006). Thdng thudng, cd nhieu phuang phap chuyen ddi bien khac nhau, phu thudc vao hinh dang phan phdi ciia bien dd (nhu lech trai hay lech phai). Do dd, su lua ehgn phuang phap chuyen ddi phil hgp la rat can thiet. Ket qua kiem djnh phan phdi chuan ddi vdi bien phu thudc (dugc chuyen ddi) vdi gia thiit HQ: phan phdi chuan dugc trinh bay d phu luc A cho thay rang bien phu thudc cd the dugc chuyin ddi theo mdt trong ba dang sau:
log(pGDP), ll^ipGDP), l/(pGDP).
3.2. Mo hinh u&c lup-ng
Dya vao phuang trinh (1) va cac chi tieu nhu da md ta, md hinh udc lugng tac ddng cua nganh du ljch din phat triin kinh ti se dugc the hien nhu sau:
pGDP, ^a, +I3,„RGDP, + ^ , 0 , +
Theo li thuyit cua md hinh udc lugng ddi vdi dii lieu cd dang "panel", cd hai phuang phap ca ban de udc lugng phuang hinh (2) thudng dugc ggi la
"Fixed Effect - FE" va "Random Effect - RE"
(Gujarati, 2004).
Md hinh FE vdi gia dinh he sd gdc (a,.,) cua mdi qudc gia (i) dugc phep thay ddi, nhung cd djnh theo thdi gian (t). Vi vay, phuang trinh (2) dugc thi hien lai nhu sau:
(2)
k'--i (3)
Trong do, N/, la cac bien gia luong irng cho mdi qudc gia (i), Uj, = A., + |.ii dugc ggi la sai sd do lac ddng ciia thdi gian {Xi) va khac biel giira cae qudc gia ().ii). Do chiing ta su dung bien gia (dummy) de udc lugng md hinh FE, nen phuang trinh (3) con dugc ggi la md hinh udc lugng binh phuong be nhat vdi biin gia (Least Square Dummy Variable Model LSDV model).
Md hinh RE vdi gia djnh rang cac qudc gia dugc quan sal mdt each ngau nhien. Khi dd, he sd gdc ciia mdi qudc gia (i) bao gdm ca sai sd ngau nhien:
« , i = Of, 4- ^ .
(5)
(6) Of, (4) la gia tri trung binh cua he so gdc va e, la sai sd.
Thi phuang trinh (4) vao phuang trinh tdng quat (2), ta thu dugc md hinh RE cu the nhu sau:
pGDP„ = « , +Pu.RGDP, + A „ 0 , +
Hoac
pGDP, =«, +J3„RGDP, +PM, +
PvPil+^i,
Cudi cimg, Kiem djnh Hausman dugc sir dung de quyit djnh md hinh FE hay RE phii hgp cho viec udc lugng tdt ban (Cameron, 2005), vdi gia thiel HQ:
khdng cd mdi tuang quan giiia yeu td khdng dugc quan sat va cac yeu td giai thich trong md hinh, Cov(ei, Xi,) = 0.
4. Ket qua va thao luan
Cac he sd udc lugng ciia ca hai md hinh dugc trinh bay d Bang 3 hau het the hien dugc y nghTa ve thong ke va li thuyet kinh te. Cy the la, su phat trien cua nganh du ljch qudc te cd ddng gdp y nghTa ddi vdi phat trien kinh te ciia cac qudc gia ASEAN, gdp phin nang cao thu nhap cua ngudi dan tai cac qudc gia nay. Ben canh dd, mdi quan he tich eye giiia di do hda thuang mai ciia kinh te va nang cao thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi ciing dugc xac dinh. Tuang dong vdi ket qua nghien ciiu ciia Kojima (1996), ket qua udc lugng trong nghien cim ciing cho thay rang
P H A T TRlfeN DU LjCH
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P H A T T R I E N K I N H T E Sd' 257, Th^ng Ba ndm 2012
Bang 3. Ket qua u'dc Ivttfng
M6 hinh Fixed Effect
H^ so Sal s6 chuan
Random Effect
H^ so Sai so chuan RGDP
U
Hing so
0,123 (3,54) 0,503'"
(5,07) 0,124'"
(16,21) 0,478 (1,24) 0,880 2,621 0,116 0,000
0,035
0,001
0,007
0,385
0,216 (4,90) 0,232' (1,90) 0,084"' (10,81) 2,598*"
(5,47) 0,844 0,608 0,116 0,000
0,044
0,001
0,008
0.475
Ou
Prob>F.(;jr')
Ghi chu: muc y nghTa Ihong l<e vdi p < 0,01 va 0,1
ti le dan sd thanh thi cao gan lien vdi nang cao thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi ciia cac qudc gia ASEAN.
Bang 4. Ket qua chuyen ddi va kiem dinh gia thiet & Kiem djnh cheo cac yeu t d 4.1. Chuyin doi vd kiim dinh gid thiit
Chuyen doi ^2 P
4.2 Kiim dinh cheo cdc veu to
(pGDP)' (pGDP)' (pGDP)''^
log(pGDP) 1/(pGDP) 1/(pGDP)"' 1/(pGDP)^
1/(pGDP)^
55,8 47,8 24.5 7,2 8,0 7,4 23,7 34,9
0,000 0,000 0,000 0,028 0,018 0,024 0,000 0,000
Cac yeu to Log(pGDP) RGDP 0 U
Log(pGDP 1 0.421*
0,834*
0,883*
RGDP
1 0,511*
0.160
0 I
1
0.743* 1 Ghi chii: muc y nghia thong ke vdi p < 0,01.
Nhin chung, tat ca ciic he sd ciia hai md hinhc nghia thdng kc \ a tuong ddng \'c tac ddng den lang thu nh^p binh quan dau ngudi cua cac quoc ASEAN. Tuy nhien, vice lya ehgn md hinh phul nhu da de cap la rit cin thiit. Theo kit qua ki dinh Hausman, gia trj Chi binh phuomg la 362,86' mirc y nghTa thong ke (P = 0,000). NghTa la, chi ta cd ca sd de bac bd gia thiit Ho va kit luan ri md hinh FE la phii hgp nhit.
Ve mat thye tien, cd thi thiy ring cac yiu to i thich trong md hinh cd tuong quan vdi cac yen khdng quan sat ciing nhu giiia chiing vdi nhau. 1
16
P H A T TRlfeN DU LICHSd257, Thang Ba ndm 2012
ndi each khac, md hinh RE thudng It thda dieu kien trong nhiing udc lugng cac chi tieu kinh ti (Gujarati, 2004). Trong nghien ciiu nay, khi thuc hien kiim djnh cheo giiia cac yeu td, ket qua cho thay rang cac yeu td giai thich cd mirc do tuong quan nhit djnh giiia chimg (Bang 4 (4.2)). Vi vay. Bang 5 trinh bay he sd tac ddng cua nganh du ljch den thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi, tuong iing vdi hai chi lieu: ti le dan sd thanh thj va do md nen kinh te de cd mdt cai nhin chi tiet hon.
Thdng tin tir Bang 5 cho thay rang cac qudc gia
nhieu hon cua ngudn thu tir du ljch qudc te se gdp phan cai thien lhu nhap, hoac la mirc do lu do hda thuong mai va dd thj hda cang cao ciing thiic day tang thu nhap cua ngudi dan, khi hg cd nhieu co hdi de tiep can thj trudng lao ddng.
Dua vao sd lieu trong giai doan 2001-2009, chiing ta cd the du bao sy thay ddi cua cac chi tieu tren trong giai doan 2010-2020 (vdi gia trj trung binh a nam 2015). Hai phuong phap du bao co ban tuong ling vdi dac diem ciia cac chi lieu dugc trinh bay:
Bang 5. He sd u'dc lu'dng cua RGDP cua md hinh FE
He so Ti le dan so thanh thj (%) Do moi nen kinh te
RGDP Sai so Gia tri (p)
20 0,061
1,61 0,354
40 0,251
3,61 0,001
60 0,130
0,78 0,472
80 0,037
0,74 0,471
100 0,329
3,24 0,018
SI 0,126
2,69 0,015
>1 0,172
3,64 0.000
~z6 ti le dan sd thanh thj ldn hon 20% hoac nhd hon va bing 40%, gom Lao (27,5%), Thai Lan (32,4%) v^a VN (26,5%) va ldn hon 80% nhu Singapore
100%)) the hien miic do anh hudng tich cue ciia iganh du lich den thu nhap cua ngudi dan Nhu da
^ h a n tich. Thai Lan va Singapore la hai qudc gia cd C ien du lich phat trien tir lau; trong khi dd, Lao va
•^/N gan day dugc xem la nhiing diem den hap dan tdi vdi du khach qudc te do hinh thire du ljch mdi la
a su dn djnh ve chinh trj.
Hon niia, sy ty do hda thuong mai ciia nen kinh
••i:l da dan den sy ddng gdp tich cyc va nhieu hon ciia '^ganh du ljch ddi vdi sy phat trien kinh te. Thii nhat,
•' lu hut nha ^ u tu nude ngoai vao ITnh vyc thuong jitiai dich vu, trong dd cd nganh du ljch. Thii hai, ty - ;:x) hda thuang mai se dan den nhu cau di lai nhieu
^..DTi cua cac nha dau tu va tao dieu kien cho nganh .: i lich phat trien song song vdi phat trien nen kinh
01/ bao va gdi y chmh sach
V Phan tich dy bao trong nghien ciiu nay cd y nghTa yc tien trong viec ggi y ve chinh sach lien quan oi quan he giiia nang cao ddi sdng va phat trien du
>i •' :h cung nhu md ciia nen kinh te va dd thi hda tai
!>''•'c qudc gia dang pSat trien. Vi du, sy ddng gdp
Chi tieu thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi (pGDP) va miic do ty do hda thuang mai (O) cd the du bao theo cdng thiic don gian sau:
pGDP,=pGDP,,(l + r,r
Chi tieu dd thj hda va ti trgng doanh thu tir du ljch qudc te trong GDP chi bien ddng den miic tdi da la 100% (Vj = [0,100], j = U, RGDP). Ndi each khac, nd dugc the hien dudi dang ham logistic. Vi vay, gia trj du bao ciia hai chi tieu nay cd the thu dugc tir cdng thiic sau:
v.= ^^^
1 + A.e
-p.tHai tham sd A va p se dugc tim thay tir viec giai phuong trinh vdi cac gia trj U va RGDP san cd trong giai doan 2001-2009.
Ket qua dy bao dugc trinh bay d Bang 6. Cd the th§y>rang chi tieu thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi dy bao se tang binh quan tren 10%) trong giai doan 2010-2020. Trong dd, VN ky vgng dat miic tang tren
13%) ve thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi. Dang luu y, sy ddng gdp va miic tang cua nganh du ljch quoc ti (cu the la doanh thu) dugc dy bao tang nhanh hon so vdi hai chi tieu ve mirc do ty do hda thuong mai va do thi hda.
PHAT TRI^N DU LICH
17
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Sd257, Thang Ba nim 2012
- 1
Bang 6. S ^ ' t h a y d d i giu'a h a i g i a i doan 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 2 0 va 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 9 ( % )
Quoc gia pGDP RGDP O U
Campuchia Indonesia Lao Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thai Lan VN
11,00 14,94 14,36 7,63 8,71 7,36 9,86 13,19
3,89 -4,.39
2,40 3,09 -2,71 0,36 2,59 6,54
0,89 -5,22
0,54 -2,12 -5,88 1,73 0,10 3,51
2,88 2,11 3,73 1,24 1,10 0,07 0,87 1,64 Ket qua dy bao nay ddi vdi thye tien d VN kh^
phil hgp klli nganh du ljch ciia VN dang tren da phat trien vdi ngay cang nhieu loai hinh nghe thuat, van hda, cdng trinh hr nhien dugc the gidi cdng nhan va bao tdn. Day la yeu td quan trgng de du khach qudc te biet den va ehgn VN la diem den ciia hg. Vi vay, chinh sach thiic day va quang ba ciia nganh du ljch cd y nghTa quan trgng khdng nhirng ty nang cao nang lyc phat trien eiia nganh du lich, ma cdn ddng gdp lam tang thu nhap binh quan cua ngudi dan.
6. Ket luan
Nhiing ddng gdp tich cyc ciia nganh du lich trong phat trien kinh te nhu tao viec lam va tang thu nhap tir lau da dugc ghi nhan trong nhieu nghien ciiu.
Nhin chung, nghien ciiu nay ky vgng mang lai mdt cai nhin sau sac hon ve vai trd cua phat trien du ljch ddi vdi phat trien kinh te ciia cac qudc gia ASEAN, noi cd sy phat trien kinh te va du ljch kha in tugng trong thdi gian gan day. Mdt vai diem quan trgng cua nghien ciiu dugc tdm luge nhu sau:
Thie nhat, du lieu dang "panel" dugc xem kha phil hgp de udc lugng mdi quan he giiia phat triin du ljch va phat trien kinh ti. Cu thi la md hinh FE vdi sy tuong quan giiia cac yiu td giai thich thi hien tinh thye tien cao trong viec udc lugng.
Thie hai, cac qudc gia cd ti le dan sd thanh thj d miic trung binh dugc cho thiy cd miic do tac dgng cua nganh du ljch den thu nhap cao hom. Bdi vi, da sd cac qudc gia nay cd nin kinh te tuong ddi phu thugc vao ndng nghiep va dan sd sinh song d vimg
ndng thdn. Do dd, sy chuyen ddi kinh le theo hudnj cdng nghiep va dich vu nhu VN rd rang se tao sii chuyen bien manh ve tac ddng ciia cac nganh na) den phat trien kinh te ndi chung va tang thu nhap noi rieng.
Tdm lgi, nhirng ket qua tir nghien ciiu se la bang chung thiet thye nham cung cap cho nha nghien ciiu ciing nhu nha quan li mgt birc tranh tdng quan ve do ludng tac ddng ciia cac yeu td vT md nhu du lich, tu do hda thuong mai den phat trien kinh te>
CHU THICH
[1] Mpt CO quan chuyen mon cua Uen Hiep Quoc ve ITnh vi.i'c du ljch, viet t i t UNWTO.
[2] Du khach quoc tela khach du Ijch xuat phat tii mot quoc gia den quoc gia khac va luu tru d dd khong qua 12 thang.
[3] Doanh thu tu' du khach quoc te (gpi tit la doanh thu) la cac khoan chi tieu cua du khach, bao gom chi phi di Igi. sinh hogt va mua s i m trong hanh trinh du ljch. Chi tieu nay thudng dugc udc tinh theo gia hipn hanh va do la My USD (Ngudn: World Tourism Organization, Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, Compendium of Tourism Statistics and data files).
[4] Thong tin chi tiet cd the xem tai http://wwv\/.worldbank.ora/data
1 3 ''"^^ ^'^'^'^ °^ ^-^^
So 257, Thang Ba nSm 2012
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
Brau, R., A. Lanza, & F Pigliaru (2007), "How Fast Are Small Tourism Countries Growing? Evidence from the Data for 1980-2003", Tourism Economics 13:603-614.
Cameron, A. C (2005), Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications, Cambridge University Press.
Chatterjee, S. & A.S. Hadi (2006), Regression Analysis by Example, Vol. 607: LibreDigital.
Chon, K. S (2000), Tourism in Southeast Asia: A New/ Direction: Routledge.
Durbarry, R. (2004), "Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius", Tourism Economics 10:389-401.
Eugenio-Martin, J.L., N.M. Morales, & R. Scarpa (2004), "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach", Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattel Working Paper Series, NOTA Dl LAVORO 26.
Gujarati, D.N (2004), Basic Econometrics. New York: McGraw Hill.
Hampton, M.P (1998), "Backpacker Tourism and Economic Development" Annals of Tourism Research 25:639- 660.
Hitchcock, M. & V.T. King (1993), Tourism in South-east Asia, Psychology Press.
ivanov, S. & C. Webster (2007), "Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth", Tourism Economics 13:379-388.
Kaplan, M. & T. Qelik (2008), "The Impact of Tourism on Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey", The International Joumal of Applied Economics and Finance 2:13-18.
Kojima. R. (1996), "lntroduction:Population Migration and Urbanization in Developing Countries", The Developing Economies 34:349-369.
Lee, C C . & C P . Chang (2008), "Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels", Tourism Management 29:180-192.
Tong cue Thong ke (2010), Men giam thong ke 2010, NXB Thong ke.
Sequeira. T.N. & N.P Mapas (2008), "Does Tourism Influence Economic Growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach", Applied Economics 40:2431-2441.
UNWTO (2010), "Compendium of Tourism Statistics and Data Files", in Yearbook of Tourism Statistics: World Tourism Organization.
Vietnamnews (2010), "Vietnam Travel with Opportunites of ASEAN Tourism Investment"
THONG BAO
V/v: Xudt bdn Tgp chi Phdt trien Kinh te tiing Anh
Dugc su chip thuan cua Bp Thong tin va Truyin thong va Ban giam hieu Trudng D^i hpc Kinh te TP. Ho Chi Minh, bit ddu tie ddu 7/2012, Tap chi Phat triin Kinh ti se thuc hien nhung cai tiin dii vdi an ban tap chi tieng Anh UEH Joumal of Economic Development (JED) nhu sau:
Kyphdt hdnh: Moi quy mpt ky, phat hanh tir diu quy: tuin diu thang 1, 4, 7 va 10 hang nam (Thay vi hang thang nhu trudc).
Quy cdch tap chi:
Kich thudc: 18,0 x 26,0 cm (thay cho khi 20,5 x 29 cm);
- So trang: 160 trang (trudc la 64 trang).
- Loai giiy: Bia ciing Duplex trang mang, mpt couche.
- Gia ban: 60.000 VND.
Nhu vay, tap chi (JED) vln xuit ban hang thang vdi quy each cu trong cac thang 1,2,3 va 4/2012, thang 5 va thang 6/2012 khong xuit ban. Bit diu tir toin diu thang 7/2012 (dlu quy 3), tap chi se thay doi nhu tren.
Tap chi rit mong nhan dupc su ung hp cua Quy cpng tac vien va ban dpc trong va ngoai nude.
TONG BIEN TAP
GS.TS. DirOfNG THI BINH MINH
PHAT TRlfeN DU LICH
