Dong von dau tu' gian tiep vao cac nu'O'c dang phat trien giai doan tru'O'c va sau khung hoang
Vdn ddu tu gidn tiip nudc ngodi (FPI) Id vdn nudc ngodi ddu tu vdo cdc chirng khodn cd phdn (equity securities) hoac chung khodn ng (deb securities), tire Id ddu tu vdo mua cd phiiu, trdi phiiu vd/hodc cdc cdng cu ng khde, tren thi trudng ndi dia hoac qudc ti. Do
chi cjuan tdm din lgi ticc hoac mice dd an todn ciia chicng khodn chic khdng quan tdm den viic qudn ly qud trinh san .xudt vd kinh doanh thuc ti nen FPI cd tinh thanh khoan cao.
Dgc diim ndy khiin cho hinh thicc ddu tu ndy mang tinh ngdn hgn. mdc du cd phieu dugc coi Id liinh thicc ddu tic ddi hgn vd nhieu logi trdi phieu cd thdi hgn ddu tu ldn han mdt ndm. Han nica, do cd the thay ddi rdt nhanh de dm kiim ty sudt lgi ticc cao htm hay de cd mice do rui ro thdp hon nen FPI cdn cd tinh bdt dn dinh vd de bi dao ngugc. Tinh bdt dn dinh trong mdt gidi hgn ndo dd, cd thi Id cd lgi khi nd cung cdp nhicng ca hdi kinh doanh vdi lgi nhudn cao han hoac nhicng ca hdi kinh doanh chenh lech gid. Nhicng ca hdi ndy se thu hut cdc nhd ddu tu vd khien cho thi trudng tdi chinh hogt ddng hieu qua htm. Tinh bdt dn dhih cdn chi ra rdng, thi tncdng dang tim kiem nhicng hinh thicc phdn bd vdn tdt nhdt cho nhicng ca hdi kinh ti hien hdnh. Tuy vdy, neu dieu ndy xay ra thudng xuyen vdi mice dd ldn till nhicng tdc ddng tieu cue tdi hii thdng tdi chinh ndi rieng vd nen kinh te ndi chung si xudt hien. Han the nica, tinh thanh khoan cao cung vdi tinh bdt dn dinh cua FPI cdn cd the ddn din dnh trgng rut vdn d gt khi cd su thay ddi trong quan niem cua gidi ddu tu hoac ciia cdc diiu kien kinh te ben trong ciing nhu ben ngodi.
Bdi viet dudi ddy se chicng minh cho nhgn dinh a tren ve ddng vdn FPI vdo cdc nuire dang phdt triin khi cudc khung hoang kinh te todn cdu xay ra.
1. Thu'c trang ciia dong dau tu- gian tiep nudc vdn chay vao cac nude dang phat trien da tang ngoai vao cac nudc dang phat trien 2002 - 2009 len manh me. Ddng vdn chay ra cung tang
1.1. Von ddu tit gidn tiep nude ngodi vdo manh nhung khdng thap ban thang du tai khoan cdc nude dang phdt trien trudc khiing hodng, vang lai, ket qua la dir trir ngoai hdi d mirc eao giai dogn 2002 - 2007 chua timg thay d cac nude dang phat trien . Ben Trong giai doan 2002 - 2007 ddng vdn nude canh eac nhan td ben trong nen kinh te cac nude ngoai vao eac nude dang phat trien tang nhanh dang phat trien, mdt sd nhan td ben ngoai cd chdng, day la ket qua ciia su eai thien dang ke anh hudng Idn den su thuc day cac ddng vdn di tinh hinh kinh td vT md d cae nude nay. Lgi the chuyen vao cac nudc dang phat trien nhu chinh tang trirdng dugc md rgng, dae biet d mdt sd sach lai suat thap va sir tang truong tien te rat nen kinh te nhu Trung Qude, An Do, Brazil. Ty manh d cac nudc phat trien.
Id tiet kiem tang len (trong khi tai cac nude ' cdng nghiep phat tridn tbi lai giam xudng), va
nhidu nudc cd thang du tai khoan vang lai, ddng Bank for International Settlements (2009): Capital Flow and Emerging Market Economy. January 2009.
NhOng vin di KINH T ^ VA CHINH TRj IHt GICTI S6 3(167) 2010 .73
Dong vdn dau tu gian tiep vao cac nudc dang phat trien...
Bdng 1: Von nudc ng
Nam Von gian tilp (FPI) Chirng l<hoan CO phin Chirng l^hoan no
Vdn true tilp (FDI) Vdn vay ngan hang
1997
65,1 26,7 38,4 169,3 43,1
oai dong chay vao cac nude
1998
47,1 7,4 39,7 174,5 51,4
1999
44,6 15 29,6 179,3 -5,9
2000
43,4 26 17,4 160,6 2,6
2001
16,1 6 10,2 171,7 -11,8
dang phat triln, giai doan 1997 - 2008 (Ty USD)
2002
19,1 9 10,1 152,5 -3,2
2003
45,9 25,5 20,4 155,5 10,4
2004
74,7 38,7 36 216 41,3
2005
124,3 68,1 56,2 279,1 84,2
2006
130,9 104,3 26,6 358,4 144,6
2007
224 138,6 85,4 520 214,5
2008
26,2 15,7 10,5 583 123
Ngudn: - World Bank, Global Development Finance 1997; 2003; 2009
Dd thi 1: Tuong quan giua lai suat the gidi (LIBOR) va vdn FPI chay vao cac nudc dang phat trien, thdi ky 1990 - 2009
1990 Trong giai doan
2002 - 2007 ddng vdn FPI chay vao cac nudc dang pbal trien cd nbiing dac diem sau:
Thic nhdt, giai doan 2002 - 2007 danh dau sir phuc bdi va tang trudng trd lai ciia cac nen kinh te dang phat trien sau khiing hoang tai chinh chau A. Trong giai doan tir sau nam 2001 theo World Bank thi ddng vdn
FPI cd dau bieu phuc hdi rd ret va dat mirc 19,1 ty USD, trong dd ddng vdn chirng khoan cd phan chiem 9 ty USD nam 2002, cdn ddng vdn chirng khoan ng chiem 10,1 ty USD. Cac nam tiep theo (2003 - 2007) la thdi ky tang trudng manh me ciia ddng vdn gian tiep vao cac nudc dang phat trien, tdc do tang trudng trung binh bang nam dat 72,7%. Nam 2007 ddng vdn gian tiep da len den 224 ty USD tang 11,7 lan so vdi ddng vdn vao nam 2002.
Nguyen nhan chii chdt la do sir tang trirdng trd lai eiia cac nen kinb te chau A ciing vdi bdi canh khdng thuan lgi tai cac thj trudng
f H — I — I — { — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — I — ^
,^-*-Libor
§ " ^ ^ 6 n FPI
1994 1998 2002 2006 2007
Ngudn: World Bank Global Development Finance 1997; 2003; 2009 www: 1 \•siprinierate. us/libor/lihor rates history, htm
vdn d chau Au va Bac My^. Sir phuc hoi ciia cac nen kinh te mdi ndi gdm Argentina, Brazil, Nam Phi tao da eho su gia tang cac ddng vdn cd phieu vao nhirng nudc nay.
Argentina, Brazil, Nam Phi. Ddng vdn FPI tang tru'dng manh me trong giai doan nay cd nguyen nhan tu bdi canh kinh te tai cac nude phat trien: lai suat thap va tang trudng tidn te, cimg vdi dd la mirc lai suat cao, su dn dinh va tang trudng kinh te d cac nude dang phat tridn.
Nguyen Hong Son (2005): Dieu tiet sir di chiiv^n cda ddng vdn tu nhdn gidn tiep nudc ngodi o mot sd nudc dang phdt trien. NXB. Chinh trj quoc gia.
74 NhOng vin di KINH i t VA CHINH TRj T H ^ GICTI Sd 3(167) 2010
Ddng vdn d i u t u gian tiep vao cac n u d c dang phat tridn.
Do tbi 1 cho thay su bien ddng eiing nhip dieu ciia lai suat Libor va ddng vdn gian tiep vao eac nudc dang phat trien. Khi lai suk a cac nudc phat trien tang len cac nha d4u tu cd xu hudng tim kiem mdt thi trudng thay thd d cac nude dang phat trien cd mirc lai suat eao ban.
Theo tinb toan tbi lai suit Libor nam 2007 tang 2,3 Ian so vdi nam 2002, cdn FPI vao cac nude dang phat trien tang 11,7 lan.
Thu hai, trong ca cau ngudn vdn FPI, ty trong vdn ed phieu va trai phieu bidn ddng qua
cae giai doan. Thdi ky kinh te dn dinh thi ludng vdn cd phieu chiem uu the hon, nhung trong thdi ky khiing hoang, cac nha dau tu thudng lira chgn dau tu vao trai phieu it nii ro ban. Giai doan 2002 - 2007 la giai doan nen kinh te the gidi tang trudng dn dinh, vi vay ddng FPI vao cac nudc dang phat trien vdi ea cau thanh phan nghieng ve ddng vdn cd phieu. Ddng vdn ed phidu nam 2002 chidm 47% thi nam 2006 tang ldn 79%) tdng vdn d§u tu, nam 2007 giam xudng cdn 62%.
Do thi 2; Co' cau ddng von co phieu va trai phieu vao cac nirdc dang phat trien, giai doan 1990 - 2008
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Ngudn: World Bank, Global Development Finance 1997; 2003; 2009.
Thif ba, ddng vdn FPI duge phan bd khdng ddng deu giua cac nude dang phat trien xet tren khia canh dia ly. Ddng FPI phan ldn tap trung d cac khu vuc Ddng A va Thai Binh Duong, chau Au va Trung A. Ddi vdi cac khu vuc My Latinh va Caribe, Nam A, Trung Ddng va BSe Phi, Nam Sahara, chau Phi thi vide duge ddn nhan ddng vdn nay cdn kha ban chd va bat dn djnh. Tinh trung binh trong giai
doan 2002 - 2007, chau Au va Trung A la khu vuc tbu but duge nhidu vdn FPI nhat (chiem 32,9% tdng vdn FPI vao cae nude dang phat trien), dirng thir hai la khu vuc Ddng A va Thai Binh Duang (chiem khoang 29,7%), tiep theo la khu vuc Nam A vdi 14,2% tdng FPI.
My Latinh va Caribe, Nam Sahara chau Phi, Trung Ddng va Bac Phi vdi ty trgng Ian lugt la 12%; 8,6%; 2,2%.
NhOng vin di KINH i t VA CHJNH TR! T H ^ GICTI Sd 3(167) 2010- 75
Ddng vdn d^u tu gian tidp vao cac nudc dang phat triln.
Dd thi 3: Dong v6n FPI vao cac khu vyc khac nhau d cac nirdc dang phat trien, giai doan 2002 - 2008
100 80 60 40
Ll.
vV^'
•i D o n g A va Thai Binh Ducnig
• CTiau Au va Trung A -* My Latinh va Caribe
• Trung Dong va Bac phi
» Nam A
Nam Sahara va Chau Phi
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- 4 0
Nguon: World Bank, Global Development Finance 1997; 2003; 2009 1.2. Vdn ddu tu gidn tiep nude ngodi vdo
cdc nen kinh ti dang phdt trien giai dogn khiing hodng 2008 - 2009
Sir sup dd cua be thdng cae ngan bang Idn bat dau vao thang 9 nam 2008 va keo theo la mdt cugc khung hoang tai cbinb the gidi bon mdt nam sau dd da khien cac ludng vdn nudc ngoai vao cac nude dang phat trien trd nen khan hiem kbi'mdt lugng ldn vdn thi trudng da bdc bai. Cac ddng \dn cd xu budng chay \'e cac nen kinh te phat trien. Do tam ly lo ngai trudc nhung bat dn va rui ro cua tbi trudng, cac nha dau tu da ban cac chirng khoan de nam giu nhung tai san it nii ro ban, chang han nhu trai phieu Cbinb phu My, mat khac cac nha dau tu nude ngoai mong mudn rut vdn khdi thi trudng cac nudc dang phat trien de bd trg tai chinh trong nude. Dieu nay dan den su giam gia ciia ddng tien ngi te d cac nudc dang phat trien so vdi ddng ddia, nhieu ddng tien cua cac nudc dang phat tridn da giam gia den 20%"'. Cd the thay trong nam 2008, ddng vdn FPI vao cae nude dang phat trien gdm \dn cd phieu va trai phieu da giam 88% so \'di nam trudc tir 224 ty
USD xuong edn 26,2 ty USD"^. Thi trudng chirng khoan cac nudc dang phat trien da giam xudng muc thap nhat so vdi nhirng nam gan day. Cbi sd tbi trudng eac nen kinh te mdi ndi MSCI da giam 55%o nam 2008, giam 17 nghin ty USD gia tri thi trudng. Bao cao mdi nhat ciia IIF (Intitule of International Financial) eho biet trong nam 2008, ddng vdn gian tiep vao thi trudng eac nen kinh te dang pbal trien dat gia tri rdng la 92,305 ty USD, nhu vay la ddng vdn riit ra khdi ldn ban ddng dau tu vao.
Sang nam 2009, nen kinh te loan cau tiep tuc chiu anh budng eiia cugc khung hoang tai chinh trong cac quy dau tien ciia nam. GDP loan cau giam eho tdi dau Quy III. Tuy nhien, d nhimg thang sau do, GDP loan cau lai cd dau hien di len. Bat dau tir thang 3, thi trudng cd phieu cae nudc phat trien va dang phat trien ciing bat dau phuc hdi tra lai. Nhirng chuyen bien nay da cd tac dgng tich cue den su di chuyen cae ludng vdn gian tiep vao cac nude dang phat tridn. Vi vay, ddng vdn gian tiep cung da quay trd lai vao cuoi nam 2009. Theo udc tinh cua IIF, ddng
World Bank (2009): Global Economic Prospects. •* World Bank (2009): Global Development Finance. 2009.
76 NhOng vin di KINH TE VA CHINH TRj IHt GICTI Sd 3(167) 2010
Ddng vdn d^u tu gian tidp vao cac nude dang phat tridn.
vdn gian tiep vao eac ndn kinh td tbi trudng mdi ndi nam 2009 dat 119,2 ty USD. Tuy nhien, tdng ddng vdn vao nhirng nudc nay van giam trong nam 2009 (tir 667 ty USD nam 2008 xudng cdn 435 ty USD nam 2009) vdn dhu tu true tiep giam (tii' 506 ty USD nam 2008 xudng cdn 343,7 ty USD nam 2009)'. Didu nay cd thd giai thieh bdi do tre eiia ddng von true tiep va tinh thanh khoan ciia ddng vdn gian tidp. Cdn theo udc tinh eiia WB thi ddng vdn quoc td vao cac nude dang phat tridn trong nam 2009 giam xudng cdn 363 ty USD so vdi 1.160 ty nam 2007 va 707 ty nam 2008. Su giam xudng ciia cac ddng vdn vao cae nude dang pbal tridn dugc danh gia la dat mire ky luc so vdi nhirng nam gan day.
Mat khac, xem xet ca cau vdn cd phieu va vdn trai phieu cho thay trong nam 2008 ty trgng vdn cd phieu giam xudng, cdn vdn trai phieu lai tang len, trong kbi nam 2006, ty trgng vdn cd phieu dat mirc eao nhat (79%) tdng vdn dku tu), thi sang nam 2008 ty Id nay la 59%o.
Cac khu vuc bi anh budng nhieu nhat ciia cudc khiing hoang tai chinh loan cau la cac nudc dang phat trien d chau Au va Trung A, khu vuc My Latinh va Caribe''. Theo tinh loan thi trong nam 2008 khu virc chau Au va Trung A ddng vdn gian tiep nude ngoai vao cac nudc trong khu vuc da giam 89%o, My Latinh va Caribe giam 140%.
2. Trien vong ddng dau tu gian tiep vao cac nudc dang phat trien nam 2010
Tir nhung dau hieu ve su phuc hdi eua nen kinh te the gidi da ed nhirng du bao lac quan ve sir trd lai ciia ddng dau tu gian tidp ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien vao nam 2010.
Kinh te loan eau cd dau hieu phuc hdi tir nhung thang cudi nam 2009 va dugc du bao se phuc bdi cham trong nam 2010. GDP loan cau udc tinh yiam 2,2% nam 2009 dugc du bao se
tang tru'dng 2,7% trong nam 2010. va 3,2% nam 2011 . Nhd cac gdi kich cau, cac nen kinb te ldn nhu: Nhat Ban, Phap, Dire da bat dau cd dau hieu tang trudng trd lai tir Quy II nam 2009. Nen kinh te My thi bat dau tang truang 2% tir Quy III. Theo du bao, nen kinh te My se tang tmdng 2,5% nam 2010, 2,7% nam 2011.
Ddi vdi cac nude thu nhap cao d chau Au theo udc tinh, GDP giam 3,9% nam 2009, vi vay chi dat mirc tang trirdng 1% trong nam 2010.
Ddng vdn FPI dd vao cac nudc dang phat trien phii thugc rat Idn vao tinh hinh kinb te d eac nude phat trien. Tir dau hieu phiic hdi d eac nen kinh te Idn cd the du bao trien vgng tang trudng ciia ddng FPI vao eac nude dang phat trien.
Mat khac, dir bao tir World Bank cho thay, sir bdi phuc ciia cac nen kinh te dang phat tridn vao nam 2010. Trien vgng tang trudng d cac nudc dang phat trien trong nam 2010 la 5,2%
va 5,7% nam 2011, neu khdng bao gdm cac nudc Trung Qudc, An Do, cac nude dang phat trien d chau Au va Trung A tbi tang trudng la 3,3%, day cung la ca sd cho nhung dir bao lac quan ve ddng dau tu gian tiep nudc ngoai vao cae nude dang phat trien.
Dd thi 4: GDP eac nudc dang phat trien, giai doan 2005-2011
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Ngudn: So lieu dugc tap hop tir World Economics Database. October 2009. IMF.
' Institute Of International Finance (2010): Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies. January.
' World Bank (2009): Global Development Finance. ' World Bank (2010): Global Economic Prospects.
NhOng vin di KINH i t VA CHINH TR! T H ^ GICTI So 3(167) 2010- 77
Ddng vdn dau tu gian tidp vao cac nudc dang phat tridn..
Bdng 2: Du- bao dong dau tir gian tiep vao cac nen kinh te thj trudng mdi noi, giai doan 2010-2011
Don v i : Ty USD Nam
Tdng ddng vdn tu nhan Dau tu cd phan
Dau tu true tiep Dau tu gian tiep Vdn vay
2008 667,1 413,4 506,6 -93,2 235,7
2009 435,2 462,8 343,7 119,2 -27,2
2010 721,6 562,4 456 106,4 159,2
2011 797,9 597,3 497,5 99,7 200,6
Ngudn: Intitule of Internationcd Finance (2010): Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, January 2010.
Theo du bao ciia IIF, ddng vdn gian tiep se quay trd lai cac nudc dang phat trien nhimg vdi tdc do cham. Nam 2010, vdn gian tidp dat 106,4 ty USD va 99,7 ty USD nam 2011. Ddng vdn vao se tang nlianh trong nam 2010 va 2011 nhung chii yeu mire tang nay dien ra d ddng vdn true tiep, nam 2010 tdng vdn vao se tang la 65%).
Ddng vdn FPI cd nhijng dac trung ca ban la tinb thanh khoan cao, ngan ban, b^t dn dinh, de bi dao ngugc ciing nhu tdn tai dudi nhidu hinh tbire va rat phirc tap. Ddng thai ciia ddng vdn nay trong nhung nam vira qua da the hien rd Tai lieu tham khao: , ',
nhirng dac trung nay. Vide thu hut duge nhieu vdn se mang lai nhiJng lgi ich to ldn eho nen kinh te, tuy nhien sir phat trien qua ndng eiia nd lai la mgt trong nhung nhan td tao ra cac cudc kbimg hoang tai chinh. Vi vay, eac nude dang phat trien can phai cd mgt chinh sach nham thii hut vdn va dieu tiet su ra vao ciia eac ddng vdn mdt each than trgng va cd hieu qua*
Tran Thj Ha Tdnghgp
Martin D.D .Evan: International Capital Flows, Return and World Financial Integration.
Nguyen Hdng San (2005): Dieu tiet su di chuyin cua ddng von tu nhdn gidn tiep nudc ngodi a mat sd nm'xc dang phdt triin, NXB. Cbinb tri quoc gia.
Worid Bank (2004): Global Development Finance.
Worid Bank (2009): Global Economic Prospects.
IMF: International Financial Statistics, 1999; 2002; 2009.
6- http;//\vw\\.\vsiDrimcrate.us/Iiboi-/Iibor ratesjiislory.btm: Tlie Economist Intelligence Und 7. United Nation (2009): Wo/Id Economic Situation and Prospects.
8. Institute of International Finance (2010).- Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, January.
9. World Bank (2009): Global Development Finance.
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