Cac nhan to tac dong den
kha nang c6 viec lam d Viet Nam
TRAN TH! MAI LINH- D 6 THANH PHCIC"
T d m t d t
Viic lam cd vai tro quan trong trong ddi sdng xa hoi, la van di cot loi va xuyin sudt trong cdc hoat dgng kinh te chi phdi loan bo moi hoat dong cua cd nhdn vd xd hoi. Giai quyet viec lam Id mot trong nhitng mue tiiu quan trong cua nudc ta hien nay. Chinh vl vay, Nhd nudc, cdc ca quan chiic ndng, cdc tochiic cdng nhungudi lao dong rat can nhOng thong tin chinh xdc vd day du vi thf trudng lao dong. Viic xdc dinh cdc nhdn tdtdc dong den khd ndng cd viec Idm se gdp phan quan trong trong viec dinh hudng tao viec tam mot each cd hieu qud. Bdi vie't s^ dung mo hinh logistic diddnh gid tdc dong ciia cdc nhdn tdde'n khd ndng c6 viec Idm ciia ngUdi lao dong d Viet Nam.
Tiif khoa: viec Idm, tdc dong, Viet Nam, thi trudng lao dong Summary
Work has an important role in social life, is a core and throughout matter of economic activities that govern all individual and social activities. Job creation is current one of our country's important goals. Therefore, the State, mvolved agencies, organizations and workers desperately need accurate and detailed information on the labor market. The identification of factors affecting employability will play an important role in job creation. This paper uses logistic model to assess the impact of factors on the employability of workers in Vietnam.
Keywords: employment, impact, Vietnam, labor market Gldl THIEU
Vide lam ludn la van de cd tinh thdi sif khdng chi dd'i vdi Viet Nam, md cdn dd'i vdi ta't ca cdc nifdc tren the' gidi. Vl vay, giai quye't viec lam la mot trong nhffng mue tieu quan trong cua nffdc ta hien nay. Dd'i lu'dng de giai quye't viec lam la ngifdi lao ddng - mot lu'c lUdng chie'm ty le rat Idn vd ddng vai trd quan trong trong xa hdi.
Trong giai doan hien nay, nffdc ta tie'p tuc day manh cdng cude ddi mdi, phdt huy ndi life de cdng nghiep hoa, hien dai hoa da't nffdc. Hdn bao gid het. Dang, Nha nffdc, cac cd quan chffc nang, cac td chffc chinh phu va phi Chinh phu trong nffdc, quoc te', ciing nhff ban than ngffdi lao ddng rat can nhffng thdng tin kip thdi, chinh xdc va day du ve thi trffdng lao ddng. Viec xdc dinh cac nhan td' anh hffdng den kha nang cd viec 1dm se gdp phan quan trpng trong viec dinh hffdng tao viec 1dm mdt cdch cd hieu qua, cung cd'p cac thdng tin giiip cho ngffdi lao ddng cd cd hdi, kha nang tim kiem viec 1dm mdt cdch nhanh chdng.
PHl/ONG PHAP NGHIEN CLOJ Mdtasd'li^u
Trong bai viet nay, nhdm tac gia sff dung so' lieu trong Bao cao dieu tra lao ddng vide lam ndm 2018 cua
•, ", Trifdng Dgi hpc Kinh te va Quan trj kinh doanh - Dai hoc Thai Nguyen /igflV nmn bid. 19/05/2020: Ngdx phdn bi?n: 24/5/2020. Ngay duy ei ddng • 29/5/2020
Tong cue Thd'ng kd. Bao cao cung ca'p thdng tin lao ddng va viec lam; mdt sd' chi tieu chu ye'u ve tha't nghiep va thieu viec lam giai doan 2015-2018 trong dp tudi lao ddng hien dang sinh song tai Viet Nam.
Bdo cdo cung cung cap cac thdng tin v^ lao ddng vd vice lam cho ngffdi sff dung lao ddng; so lieu ve sd'ngffdi tham gia life Iffdng lao dong, khdng tham gia lu'c Iffdng lao ddng, cung nhff tinh dffdc ty le life Iffdng lao ddng du viec, thie'u vi?c, ty le that nghiep va ty le thdi gian sff dung lao dong d khu vffc thanh thi, ndng thdn.
Npi dung cua cudc dilu tra lao ddng viec lam ndm 2018 ra't phong phii, cung ca'p nhieu tieu thilc lien quan den ngffdi lao ddng, dd Id: tuoi, gidi tinh, trinh dp hpc va'n, tinh trang hdn nhan, tinh trang viec lam, tien cdng - tien Iffdng hoac thu nhdp blnh quan va tinh hinh sff dung thdi gian lao ddng (Bdi vii'i sH dung cdch viet so thap phdn theo chudn qudc te).
M6 ta bie'n s6'
Trong md hinh logistic, cdc xac suat p dffdc xdc dinh bdi cdng thrfc:
8
STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13
BAMG 1: MO HINH LOGISTIC UdC n r 0 N G THIJC NGHIEM CAC NHAN TO ANH HCTdNG DEN KHA NANG CO VIEC LAM CUA NGtfOl TRONG DO Ta6l LAO DONG Giai thfch bigh ^
He so Tudi Gidi tinh Hon nhan Dan toe Khu vtfc SiJc khoe Trinh do hijc van THCS THPT THCN, TCN CD. CDN Dai hoc Sau dai hoc
Bie'n gidi thicli C X, X,
X j
x^
X,
x^
X,
^72
^71
x„
x„
•^76
x„
Coeficent
0.032915 -0.081364 -0.887520 -1.324080 -0.646206 -0.374516
1.397518 1.241865 2.01232 2.762144 2.797672 3.645787
Sti].Error
0.000898 0.033408 0.043947 0.042542 0.039043 0.060031
0.046222 0.054628 0.076272 0.151856 0 086928 0.465787
z-Statistic
36.65 -2.44 -20.20 -31.12 -16.55 -6.24
30.23 22.73 26.38 18.19 32.18 7.83
Prob.
0 000 0015 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Mguon: Ket qua nghien cufu c
Trong ilo: X = (1, X^,, X^,. ...
-.Ln\
• '^J ^*
\l-p) trong do:
p^=.E(Y=l/X)
X+u (1)
(2)
Dung phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng hdp ly td'i da d^ ffdc Iffdng /i. Sau khi ffdc Iffdng ke't qua dffdc p, nhdm tdc gia ffdc Iffdng xac sua'tp = P(Y =
--P(Y= 1\X) •'exp(Xfi) 1 -h exp(Xfi) Trong mo Mnh nay, nhdm tac gia khdng nghien ciiU anh hffdng trffc tiep cija bie'n doc lap X dd'i vdi Y ma xem xet anh hffdng cua X^ den xdc sua't Y nhan gia tri bang 1 hay ky vong cua Y. Qua dd, xac dinh xac suat de ngffdi thff i trong mau cd viec lam.
Tren cd sd sd' lieu, nghien cffu xay dffng dffdc md hinh ddnh gia xdc sua't cd viec lam cua ngffdi lao ddng thff i trong life Iffdng lao ddng theo tidu chuan:
PI"" = 777^^-^^xrr^A^^^^^^^^AJ Trong tieu chu^n nay, thi Pi la xdc sua't de' ngffdi thff i trong Iffc Iffdng lao ddng cd viec lam. Cdc he sd'^,, p^ ..., p^
chffa bie't can ffdc Iffdng, cac nhan td'X,, X, .... X la cdc bie'n doc lap tffdng ffng vdi cdc nhan td'dnh hffdng dd'n kha ndng cd viec lam ciia ngffdi thff i.
Tff cd sd nghidn cffu ket qua Bdo cdo dieu tra lao ddng viec Idm 2018, thu dffdc md hinh logistic eo dang:
Md hlnh nay xac dinh dffdc xdc suat ;7^kha nang cd viec lam cua ngffdi thff i dffdi tde ddng anh hffdng cOa cdc nhdn td' tham gia trong md hinh, p^ la xdc sua't de bie'n Y nhdn gid tri 1 (tffe la ngffdi thff i cd viec lam).
Cdc bie'n dffa vao md hinh gom cd:
Bii'n phu thuoc dua vdo md hlnh la bii'n rdi rac Y _\1 neu ngUdi nay cd viic lam
' \0 neu ngUdi nay khdng cd viec lam Cdc bie'n doc lap duac chgn dUa vdo md hinh la:
dd tudi cua ngffdi thff i _ 11 neu ngUdi thd i la nam
~ XOne'u ngUdi thd i la nd _ i I neu ngUdi thd i dd kit hdn
~ [0 neu ngUdi thd i chua ki't hdn _ 11 neu ngUdi thd i Id ngUdi kinh
~ [0 neu ngUdi thd i td dan toe khdc _ 11 ni'u ngudi thd i cu tru d khu vuc thanh thi
~ 10 ni'u ngudi thd i cU trii d khu vuc ndng thdn _ \ 1 ni'u ngudi thd i cd dieu tri ndi tru
~ XOni'u ngudi thd i khdng cd dieu tri noi tru 1 ni'u ngudi thd i khdng cd bang cdp 2 neu ngUdi thd i cd trmh do hgc van THCS 3 neu ngUdi thU i cd trinh do hgc van THPT 4 neu ngudi thd i cd trinh do hgc van THCN, TCN 5 ni'u ngudi thd i cd trinh do hgc van cao dang 6 neu ngUdi thd i cd trinh do hgc van dai hgc 7 ni'u ngudi thii i cd trinh do hgc van sau dai hgc l.X,
2.x.
5.x.
6.x,
7.x,
BANG 2: XAC SUAT CO VIEC LAI>1 CUA NGlfCII TRONG DO TUOI LAO D^NG
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6
Bi<rn giai tliicli
Tuoi Gidi tinh Hon nhan Dan toe Khu vKc SiJc khoe
H«ser(p)
0 3291.') -0 081364 -0.887520 -1.324080 -0.646206 -0.374516
Gii trj P
0 000 0015 0000 0.000 0.000 0.000
EXF(P)
1 033463 0.921858 0.411675 0.226048 0.524030 0.687622
^' '^ Xicsiilitif6clilfiigltli£oiliigcdvi^l^
cua li/c liTt^g lao d$ng khi bi^n d9c l$p Uing 1 eoa vi Ta xac suS*! ban i&i 30%
.30 70 28.32 15.00 10.24 18.34 22.76
40%
40.79 38.06 21.53 15.06 25.89 31.43
50%
50 82 47 97 29.16 21.01 34.38 40.75
60%
60 "y 58.03 38.18 28.52 44.01 50.77
BANG 3: XAC SUAT CO VIEC LAM C I I A NOCTOl TRONG Dg TUOI LAO DONG THEO TRINH DO HQC VAN
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6
Bi^n gidi thfch
THCS THPT THCN, TCN CD, CDN Dai hoc Sau dai hoc
r
1 397518 1.241865 2.01232 2.762144 2.797672 3.647715
Gia trjP
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 000 0.00
EXP(P)
4.045147 3.462064 0.411675 0.226048 0 524030 0 687622
Xic sulit ddc lu^ng liba n&og c6 vi^c lam '^
coa Itfc lif^g lao dOng klii tA^ d ^ l$p Ung 1 dtfti vi va xac suii't ban fflu
..i3ii^
63.42 59.74 76.22 87.16 87.55 94.27
40%
72 95 69.77 83.30 91.35 91.62 96.24
50%
80 18 77 59 88.21 94.06 94.25 97.46
60%
85 85 83.85 91.82 95.56 96.10 98.29 r i g u o n : Ket qua nghien cuXi cua n h o m tac gia
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU VA THAO LUAN Md hinh thuTc nghi^m
Nghien cffu phan tich mot so' tffdng tac giffa cdc bie'n so' cd anh hffdng de'n kha nang cd viec lam cua hie Iffdng lao ddng. Cdc tffdng tdc dffdc xay difng chi tiet vd sff dung phin mem R de ffdc Iffdng trong mo hinh thffc nghidm. Sau Ichi kiem dinh va bo di cac bie'n khdng cd y nghia thd'ng kd, nhdm tdc gia thu dffdc md hinh thffc nghiem sau:
I + e^
trong dd
X = hi sd Chan + 0,032915*X^ 0,081364* X, 0,88752* X^ 1.32408* X^ 0,040206* X^ 0,374516*
X^ + 1,397518* X^^ + 1.241865* X^j + 2,01232* X^^ + 2,762I44*X^^ + 2,797672*X^^ ^3.647715*X^^
PhSn tich md hinh
Dung phan mem R de xff ly, phdn tich sd' lieu ta thu dffdc md hlnh vdi ke't qua dffdc the hidn trong Bang 1.
Vdi ke't qua cd ndi dung ngam dinh id xdc sua't de Y nhdn gia tri I (xdc sua't d.% ngffdi lao ddng cd viec lam), theo cdng thffc (2) ta tinh dffdc xdc sud't cd viec lam cua life Iffdng lao ddng.
Vl Y chi cd 2 gid tri cd the' cd la 0 va 1 vdi cac xac sud't tffdng ffng la 1- p vd p nen ta tinh dffdc ky vpng E(Y = IIX) = p"; trong dd, X la bid'n doc lap da dffdc chon.
PhSn tich anh hiT^g tffdng tac giifa cac bien trong md hinh thi/c nghiem
Goi /^ la xdc sua't khdng cd viec lam eua ngffdi thff i.
ta tinh dffdc he so' chenh lech cd viec 1dm (HS^^) theo cdng thffc:
HS =^
Trong md hinh logistic, khi mdt bien ddc Idp tdng len 1 ddn vi (chang han la bie'n thff k) va ta't cd cdc bid'n ddc lap khdc gia thiet Id khdng d6i, khi do he so chenh lech cd viec lam ffdc tinh thay doi mpt Iffdng bang ei^ vdi Pj, la he sdhSi quy y^u td' k thu dffdc tif ffdc Iffdng md hinh.
Vl / ' ' = ! - p,*, ta tinh dffdc xdc su^ft c6 vide lam theo cdng thffc:
Dd'i vdi mdi bid'n ddc lap cua md hinh vffa thu dffdc tdng len 1 ddn vi vdi gia thie't cdc bie'n khdc khdng d6i vd xdc suat ban dau kiem dinh la cdc gid tri 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, dp dung cdng thffc (4) ta tinh dffdc bieu xac suat ed viec Idm cua Iffc Iffdng lao ddng theo tffng yeu to cua md hinh (Bdng 2 va Bdng 3).
Phdn tich c^c y^u t ^ trong md hinh - Yg'u to tudi (X^y. Ket qua nghien cffu cho thd'y, neu xdc suat ffdc tinh cho trffdc la 30%, eac bien ddc lap khac cd dinh, thi ket qua la bien tudi chi thay doi m6t Iffdng khdng ddng kd (30^7%). Nhff vay.
cd th^ ndi ring, yeu tdtudi cua ngffdi lao
10
dOng hau nhff khdng dnh hffdng de'n kha nang c6 viec lam, ngffdi lao ddng khi da ed viec lam thi gan nhff on dinh.
- Yeu td' gidi tinh (X^): Hd sd chenh lech viec lam ffdc thay doi mdt Iffdng Id e ' . Chang han xdc xuat cd viec Idm cua nam gidi ffdc^tinhban diu la 0.3 (30%), mpt ngffdi cd di^u Iden tffdng tff nhff vay, nhfftig la ntt gidi se cd he sd' chenh lech vide lam la 0.39506. Do dd, xdc sua't cd viec lain cfia nff gidi Id 28.32%. Nhff vdy, xdc sua't cd viec lam eua nff gidi thap hdn 1.68% so vdi nam gidi.
- Ye'u td hdn nhan (X^): Tff md hlnh, gia sff hai ngffdi lao dong cd moi dilu kien nhff nhau, mdt ngffdi da ket hdn vd mdt chffa ket hdn, thi hd sd chenh lech viec Idm ffdc thay ddi mdt Iffdng la
£-0887520 Q i ^ ^|j|g'( j ^ 0 j ngK(}i d a kd't h d n cd yiac sua't ed viec lam ffdc tinh ban d^u la 40%. Mdt ngffdi cd dieu kien nhff vay, nhffng chffa kd't hdn se cd he so' chdnh lech la 0.2746. Do do, xac sua't ed viec lam cua ngffdi chffa ke't hdn se la 21.53%, giam 18.47% so vdi ngffdi da ke't hdn.
- Yd'u td Ichu vffc (X^): Ket qud trong Bao cao dieu tra lao ddng viec lam nam 2018 cung cho tha'y, td'c dp tang blnh quan hang ndm (2015-2018) cua Iffc Iffdng lao ddng khu vffc thanh thi la 2.24% va eua khu vffc ndng thdn la 0.19%. Dieu dd dat ra vd'n de can gidi quye't cho cdc nha quan ly la can tao ra nhieu viec 1dm de thu hut lao ddng cho khu vffc ndng thdn. Theo kd't qua cd dffdc tff md hinh, d thanh thi, xdc sua't cd viec Idm Idn hdn nhieu so vdi d ndng thdn; nd'u thanh thj ffdc xac sua't cd vide lam 30%, thi ndng thdn xdc sua't cd viec 1dm se la 18.34%, giam 11.66% so vdi thdnh thi.
- Ye'u td dan tdc (X,,): Nd'u hai ngffdi cd moi dieu kien nhff nhau, mot ngffdi thuoc dan tdc Kinh vd mot thuoc dan tde khdc, khi do he so chenh lech viec lam
ffdc thay ddi mdt Iffdng la e"' •*^'"'^. Nhff vay, nd'u gia thie't mdt ngffdi dan tdc Kinh cd xdc suat cd viec lam ffdc tinh la 40%, thi mpt ngffdi cd cdc dieu kien nhff vay nhutig dan tdc khdc, thicd he sd'chdnhlech la 0.17737. Dodo, xac sud't cd viec lam cua ngffdi dan tdc khdc la 15.06%, giam 24.94% so vdi ngffdi thuoc dan tdc Kinh.
- Yeu td sffc khoe (X^^): Theo ke't qua cua md hlnh, hai ngffdi cd cac dieu kien nhff nhau, nhffng mdt ngffdi da ed ti^n sff dieu tri ndi trii va mdt ngffdi thi khdng, khi dd, he sd chdnh lech vide lam ffdc Iffdng dffdc la g-o 374516 Q ^ g^ jjg'y jj^Qj ngffdi chffa dilu tri ndi tru lln ndo cd xac suat cd viec lam la 40%. thi ngffdi cdn lai se cd xdc sud't cd viec lam la 31.43%, it hdn 8.57% so vdi ngffdi chffa di^u tri ndi tru Ian ndo.
- Ye'u td trinh dp hpc van (X^): Ye'u td' gido due gdp phtn rat quan trpng 1dm tang thdm kha nang cd hdi cd viec lam cho ngffdi lao ddng. Dieu nay rd'i phu hdp vdi vai trd quan trpng cua gido due vd Idioa hpc. cdng nghe trong sff phat trien cfia kinh te' - xa hdi. Xu hffdng cau lao ddng trong giai doan 2015-2018 dffdc phdn dnh trong Bdo cao dieu tra lao ddng viec Idm ndm 2018 cho thd'y, ciu lao ddng tap trung chu yeu vao life Iffdng lao ddng cd ham Iffdng chat xdm, trinh dp hpc va'n, chuyen mdn va ky thudt cao. Cdc nganh cdng nghiep, dich vu hien dai cung ddi hdi ddi ngii cdn bd cd chuyen mdn dac thii tffdng i&ig.
KET LUyjkN
Ket qua nghien cffu ve ddnh gia tac ddng eua cdc nhan to'de'n kha nang cd viec lam ciia ngffdi lao ddng d Viet Nam cho thd'y, Idii ngffdi lao ddng cd bang cap cdng cao (ddc bidt la nhdm lao ddng cd trinh dp hpc vd'n tff cao dang, dai hoc trd Idn), thi Icha ndng cd hdi ed viec lam cang Idn. Lao ddng da ke't hdn cd khd nang kie'm dffdc viec lam cao hdn han so vdi nhffng lao ddng cdn doc than. Lao ddng 6 khu vffc thanh thi va dan tdc Kinh cd cd hdi viec lam cao hdn nhdm cdn lai. Han che'cua nghien cifu la chffa danh gia, so sanh dffdc t i m quan trpng cua cdc bie'n trong md hinh, chffa so sdnh dffdc dp chinh xdc trong ddnh gia kha ndng cd vide Idra cua ngffdi lao ddng giffa md hinh hoi quy logistic vdi cde ky thudt khdc. Nhffng va'n de tren se dffdc nhdm tde gid tid'p tuc hoan thien trong cac nghien cffu sau nay.Q
_ T A I L I E U THAM KHAO __ - _ _ 1. Tong cue Thdng ke (2019). Bdo cdo dieu tra tao dgng viic lam ndm 2018
2. Nguydn Chi Diing (2017). Kinh ti'lugng ting dung vdi R, truy cap tir https://drive.google.com/
file/d/OB7nEZKb4cFl4Ymgtd2IVlxNzB0emM/view
3. Tran Kim Dung (2003). Gido trinh qudn trj nguSn nhdn tUc, Nxb Thdng ke Ha Ndi 4. Nguydn Quang Dong, NguyIn Thi Minh (2013). Gido trinh Kinh ti'lugng, Nxb Dai hpc Kinh te'Qud'cdan. Hd Ndi
5. Harrell, F. E. (2015). Regression modeling strategies with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis, 2nd edition. Springer - Verlag, Cham
6. Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S., and Sturdivant, R. X. (20\3). Applied logistic regression. 3rd edition, Jonh Wiley & Sons
i! PnreL-asl R e v i e w
