102 I Journal of transportation science and technology, Vol 14, Feb 2015
o r BAO TINH HINH CUNG CAU GAO CUA THE G i d l HEN NAM 2020
FORECAST THE SUPPELY AND DEMAND OF RICE IN THE WORLD TO 2020 NCS. Nguyin Thi Lien, Va Thf Nhu Quynh, Pham SyManh
Trudng Bgi hoc Hdng hdi Viit Nam Tdm tdt: Cdy lua la luang thue chinh cda khodng 1,3 t^ ngudi nghio ddi nhdt trin the gidi. Id sinh ki chd yiu cua ngudi lao ddng. Ggo Id nguSn cung cdp ndrig lirang thiit yiu cho con ngudi, binh qudn tiiu thu 180 - 200 kg ggo/ngudi/ndm tgi cdc nudc Chdu A vd Chdu Phi, tgi cdc nudc thudc cdc chdu lifc cdn lgi, binh quan mdi ngudi ddn tieu thu khodng 10 kg ggo/ngudi/ndm.
Trin ca sd thdng ki, phdn tich cdc sd liiu vi tinh hinh cung, cdu gao cua thi gidi trong nhiing ndm qua, bdi bdo dua ra du bdo tinh hinh cung cdu ggo cua thi gidi din ndm 2020 vd tam nhin din ndm 2050.
Tk khda: Du bdo, Cung cau, ggo.
Abstract: Rjce is the staple food of about 1.3 billion poorest people in the world and the main livelihood of workers. It is the essential energy supply for human, the average consumption of 180 - 200 kg of nce/person/year in Asia and Africa, in the countries of the other continents, the average number per inhabitant consumes about 10 kg of rice/person/year.
Based on analysis of data on the supply and demand of rice in the world in recent years, the artical offers forecast of world rice supply and demand to 2020 and plan to 2050.
Keywords: Forecast, supply and demand, rice.
1. Phan tich tinh hinh cung, c i u gao cQa the gidi tir nam 2003 din nam 2013
Theo sd li|u bao cao va thdng ke cua To chuc Ndng luong the gidi, dua ra sd lieu dien tich va nang suat liia thi gidi ttong 10 nam qua, tu nam 2003 din 2013, theo bilu dd hinh 1 [1, 3, 4].
699,184 trieu tan, tang 4,682 tri?u tan so vdi nam 2012.
Cling vdi su gia tang san luong liia, san lupng ggo cung tang theo (hinh 2) [1, 2, 3, 4]
Phan tich ket qua nhgn duoc td hinh 2, thiy rang: San lupng ggo t h i gidi nam 2013 udc dgt 468,961 trieu tin, tang 3,145 trieu tin so vdi nam 2012.
Hinh 1. Diin tich, ndng sudt liia the gidi, lit ndm 2003 -2013
Phan tich kit qua tu hinh 1, nhan xet ring: Nam 2013, dien tich ttong lua t h i gidi khoang 157,434 trieu ha, giam 2,022 trieu ha, nang suit liia 4,44 tan/ha, tang 0,08 tan/ha so vdi nam 2012. Mac du, dien tich gieo trong giam nhung do nang suit tang nen san lupng tang. San lupng lua tiil gidi nam 2013 dgt
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Hinh 2. San lu^g gao the gi&i trong 10 ndm, tit ndm 2003 - 2013
Hinh 3 md ta chi tiet tinh hinh tieu thu va du trii gao the gidi ttong 10 nam, tu nam 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 3 [ 1 , 2 , 3 ] .
TAP CHf KHOA HOC CONG NGH$ GIAO T H 6 N G VAN TAI, S 6 14-02/2015 103
gom Trang Quoc, An Do, Indonesia, Bangladet, Viet Nam va Thai Lan trong 3 nam tii 2011/2012 d6n 2013/2014 [1, 3, 4, 5].
Hinh 3. Tieu dimg vddw trit ggo thi giai trong 10 ndm, tir ngm 2003-2013
Phan tich IcSt qua theo 46 thi hinh 3, nh|n xet ring;
Tieu thu gao the gioi (lam luong thue, thue an chan nuoi va cac muc dich sii dung khac) nam 2012/2013 vao khoang 464,651 trieu tin, tang 8,127 trieu tan (1,78%) so vol nam 2011/2012.
NhiJng nuoc tieu thu gao Ion vin la nhiing nudc co dan s6 cao nhu: Trang Quoc, An Do, Indonesia, Bangladesh va Viet Nam.
CuthI:
Trang Quoc tieu thu gao nam 2012/2013 khoang 144 trieu tin, tang 4,4 trieu tin (3,15%) so vol nam 2011/2012;
- An Do tieu thu gao nam 2012/2013 cung vao khoang 93,5 trieu tan, tang 0,166 trieu tin (0,18%) so voi nam 2011/2012,
- Indonesia tieu thu gao nam 2012/2013 khoang 39,55 triiu tan, ngang bang so voi nam 2011/2012;
- Bangladesh tieu thu gao niim 2012/2013 khoang 34,474 trieu, tang 0,174 trieu tin (0,51%) so voi nam 2011/2012.
Theo [2, 3], du tru gao the gioi cuoi nam 2012/2013 khoang 106,553 trieu tin, tang 2,143 trieu tan (2,05%) so voi nam 2011/2012. Du trii gao cu6i vu tang a hiu hk cac nuoc san xuit va tieu thu gao hang dau nhu Trang Qu6c, Thai Lan, Viet Nam, song lai duy tri 6 An Dp va giam a Indonesia, Philipi)ines va My. Ty le du trii/tieu dung gao thi gioi nam 2012/2013 khoang 22,93%, tang nhe so voi miic 22,87% ciia nam 2011/2012.
Hinh 4 la d6 thi mo ta chi tiit san lucmg gao cua mot so nuoc san xuat lua gao Ion tren the gioi tinh den thoi diim thang 6/2014,
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Hinh 4. San lugng ggo cua mdi sd nudc sdn xudt liia ggo ldn tren the gi&i
Hinh 5 md ta chi tiet tdng cung, ciu ggo thi gidi ttong 3 nam (tir 2011 - 2013) [1, 2, 3]. Phan tich ket qua cu the theo hinh 5, nhan xet rang:
- Nam 2012/2013, tdng cung gao thi gidi dgt 609,96 trieu tin, tang 9,96 trieu tin (1,66%) so vdi nam 2011/2012. Trong khi dd, tdng cau ggo the gidi la 503,407 trieu tin, tang 7,817 trieu tan (1,58%) so vdi nam 2011/2012, Tdng lupng gao xuit khiu thi gidi nam 2012/2013 vao khoang 38,756 trieu tan, giam 0,31 trieu tin (0,79%)) so vdi nam 2011/2012.
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Hinh 5. Cung, cdu ggo the gi&i trong 3 nam, tir 2011 - 2013
- Nam 2012/2013, tdng eung ggo till gidi tang cao hon muc tang cua tdng cau Mac dii tdc dp tang tieu diing (1,78%) eao hon tdc dp tang san lupng (0,68%) nhung do xuit khiu giam nhe (0,79%) va lupng ggo dy trir diu ky kha cao nen du trir cudi- ky cua the gidi vin tang (2,05%) so vdi nam 2011/2012. Chu yring:
Hinh 6 md ta tinh hinh xuat khau ggo cua cac nudc san xuat ggo ldn nhit thi gidi
104 I Joumal of transportation science and technology, Vol 14, Feb 2015
til nam 2007 - 2013 [1, 2, 3]. Phan tich ket qua tu hinh 6, nhan xet rang:
- T8ng luong gao xuit khiu thi gioi nam 2012/2013 u6c dat 38,756 ttieu tin, giam 0,31 ttieu tin (0,79%) so voi nam 2011/2012.
Trong cac quoc gia san xuat gao hang dau thi An Do, Thai Lan va Viet Nam la ba nuoc xuit khiu gao Ion nhit thi gioi, voi 10,9 ttieu tin cua An Do, 7 trieu tin cua Thai Lan va 7,2 trieu tin cua Viet Nam.
Viet Nam vao khoang 7,2 ttieu tin, giim 0,517 ttieu tin (6,70%) so voi nam 2011/2012.
Hinh 7 la do thj mo ta 5 qu6c gia co khoi luong xuit khiu gao Ion nhat the gioi ttong 3 nam (tit 2011 - 2013) [2, 3]. So vdi khoi lupng xuit khau ciia ba nuac An Do, Viet Nam, Thai Lan, thi nam 2012/2013, uoe tinh gao xuit khiu cua Pakistan vao khoang 3 trieu tin, cua My dat miic 3,4 trieu tan.
2D0T48 :0OI(D9 2009/10 2010/11 2 0 1 1 1 1 2012/15 2013/H
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Hinh 6. Tinh hinh xudt khdu ggo the gidi, tic ndm 2007-2013
- Dii vm Viet Nam, nam 2011/2012, xuit khiu ky luc vdi khoi luong 7,717 trieu tin. Tuy nhien, do thuong mai gao the gioi nam 2012/2013 suy giam, kem voi do la su canh ttanh gay git ciia gao An Dp, gao Thai Lan nen luong gao xuat khau giam. LToc tinh nam 2012/2013, luong gao xuat khau ciia
Vidiiaju United Slates Pikieten
Hinh 7. Khdi litang xudt khau ggo cua 5 qudc gia sdn xudt gao l&n nhdl the gim, tic 2011 - 2013 2. Dy bao tinh hinh cung, cSu gao cua the gioi din nam 2020
Theo bao cao va so lieu cua To chiic Nong luong thi gidi, du bao cung cau gao Ciia the gidi din nam 2020, duoc mo ta chi tiit ttong bang 1 [2, 3].
Bdng 1. Da bdo cung, c Hang muc
Dien tich thu hoach (1000 ha) Nang suat (tan/ha) Sanluong Du trii dau ky Cung tieu diing ttong nuoc Tieu diing
Du tru cuoi ky D u t i i r ( % )
2015/2016 154,662
2,95 D o n VI 456,647
90,913 547,560 459,832 87,728 19,08
du ggo cua the gidi den ndm 2020 2016/2017
154,851 2,97 tfnh: 1000 ti
460,213 87,728 547,941 464,063 83,878 18,07
2017/2018 154,989
2,99
2018/2019 154,966
3,03
2019/2020 154,952
3,06 n
463,691 83,878 547,569 468,103 79,466
16,98
470,002 79,466 549,468 472,920 76,548 16,19
474,581 76,549 551,130 477,823 73,306 15,34 Phan tich cu the ket qua nhgn duoc tu
bang I, nhan xet ring: Du bao cung, ciu ggo cua the gidi den nam 2020 cd xu hudng giam. Van de nay da duoc Td chuc Ndng luon^ the gidi de cgp va cd chinh sach khuyen khich cac nudc xuit khiu ggo, dgc
biet la cac nudc xuat khau ldn eua the gidi, nhu Thai Lan, Viet Nam,...
3. Kit lu^n
Vdi kit qua phan tich va du bao cung, ciu gao cua the gidi den nam 2020 d tten, cd thi dir bao bude tranh tdng thi cung ciu gao
TAP CHl KHOA HOC C 6 N G N G H £ GIAO T H 6 N G V A N T A I . S 6 14-02/2015 105
cua till gidi ttong nhirng nam tiep theo ttd nen khd khan va khoe liet hon. Thang 10 nam 2013, bao cao ciia Lien Hiep quoc, Vien Nghien cuu Nhan khiu Phap INED v a Hpi ddng Tinh bao qudc gia Hoa Ky NIC da dir bao r i n g [2, 7]: Dan so the gidi se tang tu muc 7,1 ty ngudi hien nay len 8,3 ty vao nam 2030 va tang len muc 9,7 ti ngudi vao nam 2050 va d i n cudi t h i k^ 21, Trai d i t se la ngdi nha chung cho Idioang 10 - 1 1 ti ngudi.
Theo nghien cdu mdi nhat, cac nha khoa hpc Dgi hpc Minnesota, My, tdc dp tang san lupng ngii cdc se khdng b i t kip nhu c i u tieu thu ddn nam 2050. Dya tren co sd gia tang nang suat cay ttdng tu nam 1988 d i n 2008, san lupng ngd t h i gidi cd t h i tang 67% den nam 2050, san luong ggo tang 42%), lua mi tang 38% va dau tuong tang 55%.
De dap ling nhu ciu tieu thu tang nhanh tinh den nam 2050, san luong luong thirc udc tinh phai tang 60% d i n 110%. D l tang g i p ddi san lupng gao den nam 2050, tiic dat 394 trieu tin, nghia la trung binh mdi nam san lupng tang 2,4%, Tuy nhien vdi tdc dp Men tgi, u d c tinh den nam 2050, muc tang san lupng cac Iogi ndng san tten se chi cd the tang dao dpng ttong khoang 4 0 % va se
khdng du de nudi sdng ngudi dan toan c i u nam 2 0 5 0 a
T A I L I E U T H A M K H A O
[1]. Bao cao thudng nien hang liia gao Viet Nam 2013 va tiiln vong 2014.
[2], Bao cao va sd lieu ciia Bd Ndng nghiep Hoa Ky, tinh din thang 6/2014.
[3]. Bao cao va sd lieu cua Td chire Ndng luong T h i gidi, quy 2/2014
[4]. Tnmg tam Thdng tin phat triln ndng nghiep ndng thdn, Bd ndng nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn Viet Nam, nam 2013.
[5]. Vien Chinh sach va Chiln lupc phat trien ndng nghiep ndng thdn, Bd Ndng nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn, thang 12/2013.
[6]. Sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke Viet Nam, nam 2013.
[7]. Tham khao thdng tin tai cac website:
www.adb.org; www.imf.org;
www.nhandan vn, www.worldbank.org vn, www.agro.gov.vn,...
r Ngay"nh|irbai:T5/10/2014 ''^' f Ng^y chip nh^n dang: 28/01/2015
Phan bien: TS. Vu T r u Phi
