Q U A N H E THUONG MAI GIOA VIET NAMVA IRUNG QUlSC
Quan he thi/dng mai giOa Viet Nam va Trung Quoc
Le Tuan Loc"
Ngay nhan bai: 10/11/2016 I Bien tap xong: 02/01/2017 | Duyet dang: 10/01/2017
TOM TAT: Nghien ciJfu ve moi quan he thu'dng mai (QHTM) giO'a Viet Nam va Trung Quoc trong gial doan tCr nam 2001 den nay, tren cd sd do nhan dang nhCfng dac diem va xu hUdng moi QHTM giO'a hai quoc gia va de xuat cac kien nghi chi'nh sach nh^m tang hieu qua QHTM cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc. SLT dung ly thuyet Idi the so sanh (LTSS) va cac mo hinh danh gia QHTM, nghien ciJu di den khSng dinh, Trung Qudc la ddi tac thu'dng mai quan trpng cua Viet Nam. Trung Qudc xuat khau sang Viet Nam chu yeu cac san pham che tac, nguyen lieu san xuat, trong khi Viet Nam xuat khau sang Trung Qudc chu yeu cac san pham nong, thuy san. Nghien cu'u dexuat Viet Nam tiep tuc mdciTa hpi nhap de md rpng thi tru'dng xuat khau, tang cUdng san xuat va xuat khau san pham che tac vdi gia trj gia tang cao, tap trung xuat khau san pham co LTSS, phattrien nganh cong nghiep ho t r d d e giam nhap khau tC/Trung Qudc.
Tif KHOA: ldi the so sanh, quan he thu'dng mai, Viet Nam va Trung Qudc.
1. Gidi thieu
Trung Qu6c va Viet Xam co moi quan he kinh te truyen thdng lau ddi. Kc tii nhflng nam 1990 den nay da co hdn 50 Hiep dinh hdp tac ve kinh te hoac c6 Hen quan va nhieu thoa thuan cap nha nUdc, thiidng mai quoc te giiita hai nUdc. Trung Quoc trd thanh mot trong nhiing doi tac thiiong mai quan trong cua Viet Nam v6i kim ngach thiidng mai hai chieu khong ngiing gia tang. Neu trong 10 nam dausaubinh thiidng hoa quan he (1991-2001), kim ngach xuat khau (KNXK) ciia Viet Nam sang thi tnidng Trung Quoc con nho be so vdi KNXK cua Trung Quoc sang Viet Nam thi tii sau nam 2001, tinh hinh xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang thi tnidng Trung Quoc da co chuyen bien tich cUc vdi ldc dg tang tnidng kim ngach
hang nam gan 15% (Pham Thi Minh Ly va Le Tuan Lpc, 2015). Kim ngach thtidng mai hai chieu giiia Viet Nam va Trung Quoc cao hon bat ky gia tri tiidng dng nao giCta Viet Nam vi doi tac thiiong mai khac tren the gidi. Trung Qudc la thi tnidng tieu thu rat quan trgng dfii vdi h i n g hda xuat khau cua Viet Nam ddng thdi la thi tradng cung cap nguyen lieu vk thanh pham quan trpng cho Viet Nam trong qua trinh cong nghiep hda vk hi^n dai hda dat niidc. Tuy nhien, hinh t h i n h Cpng ddng kinh te ASEAN, TTP vk xu hUdng tU do hda
i I Le Tuan Lpc - TrircJng Dai hpc Kmh le - Luat, B^i hpc Quoc gia TP.HCM; Khu pho 3, PhUcfng Linh Xuan, Qu^n Thu Du'c; Tp. H6 Chl Minh; Email: [email protected] vn.
TAPCHICfiNGNGHeNOANHANG i Tha-g 01&02 2017 S613D&131
IETUAN L6C
thi tnidng tren the gidi md ra nhieu cd hpi doi vdi Viet Nam trong thiidng mai quoc te, til dd vai tro cua Trung Qudc trong thiidng mai quoc te cua Viet Nam da cd nhieu thay ddi. Sd phu thupc ciia Viet Nam vao thi tnidng Trung Qudc ddi vdi ngudn nguyen Ueu nhap khau se giam xudng khi xuat hien lan sdng dau tU trdc tiep vao \'iet Xam hay cac qudc gia trong TPP nhim tan dung quy dinh xuat xd hang hda cua td chdc trong dd cd Viet Nam. Xuat khau cua
\ i e t Nam cung se giam bdt sii phu thupc vao thi triidng Trung Qudc khi TPP va Cong ddng kinh te ASEAN md rpng hdn thi tnidng xuat khau doi vdi Viet Nam. Trong bdi canh mdi.
can phai nghien cdu danh gia mdi QHTM giufa Viet Nam va Trung Qudc, tren cd sd dd de xuat khuyen nghi chinh sach de tiep tuc phat tnen QHTM giiia hai nUdc, dong thdi phat huy cac mdi QHTM mdi n h i m dem Iai hieu qua cao nhat cho Viet Nam.
2. Ctf sd ly thuyet va phiTtfng phap nghien cuTu
2.1. Co sdly thuyet
Ly thuyet ldi the tuyet ddi cua Adam Smith cho rang quoc gia nen tap trung chuyen mon hoa san xuat va xuat khau san pham co ldi the tuy^t ddi v i nhap khau san pham khong cd Idi the tuyet doi, ket qua la qudc gia se thu diipc Idi ich tii hoat dong thiidng mai quoc te (Bano, 2012).
David Ricardo vdi cong trinh nghien ciiu
"Nguven ly kinh te chinh tri va thue" da tien xa hdn ly thuyet lpi the tuyet ddi v i cho ring qudc gia chi can chuyen mon hda san xuat vi xuat khau san pham cd ldi the tddng ddi v i nhap khau san pham khdng cd lpi the tiidng ddi, thiidng mai qudc ti di^a vao cac san pham cd LTSS se dem lai ldi ich cho qudc gia (Hassan, 2013).
Hai n h i kinh te hpc Heckscher va Ohlin tiep tvc phat trien va hoan thien Ly thuyet LTSS nham xac dinh cac yeu td cau t h i n h nen LTSS Ly thuyet can bing cac yeu td san xuat cua Heckscher-Ohlin (Learner, 1995) ket luan ring LTSS xuat phat tii sU dU thiia cac yeu td
tham gia vao qua trinh san xuat san pham, qudc gia dU thiia yeu td nao se thuan Idi san xuat san pham t h i m dung yeu td dd. Ly thuyet nay giai thich rat ddn gian, san pham t h i m dung vdn se cd Idi the khi san xui't d cac qudc gia dd thiia vdn, trong khi san pham sd dung nhieu Iao dpng se t h u i n ldi khi san xuat d cac qudc gia dii thiia Iao dpng.
Tuy nhien viec do Iddng sd dd thda yeu td san xuat de xac dinh LTSS I i van de khd khan, nhieu tnidng hpp khdng the xac dinh dUdc, do vay cac n h i khoa hpc da phat trien nhieu mo hinh khac nhau de do Iddng LTSS. Cac mo hinh xac dinh LTSS cua qudc gia d cap dp nganh hay san pham thong qua chi sd LTSS hien thi d i dddc phat trien qua cac nghien cdu cua Liesner (1958), Balassa (1965) v i White (1987).
Chi sd LTSS hien thi do Balassa xay ddng nam 1965 phan anh kha nang canh tranh qudc te ciia nganh hay s i n pham cua mot qudc gia. Chi sd RCA (revealed comparative advantage) phan anh moi tddng quan giiia ti le KNXK san pham cu the trong tdng KNXK cua qudc gia vdi ti le KNXK san pham dd vdi KNXK chung ciia the gidi. Neu RCA ldn hdn 1 thi san pham tren co LTSS, cdn ngiidc lai, neu RCA<1 thi s i n pham khong cd LTSS. Sin pham cd LTSS cing Idn, kha nang canh tranh qudc te cua sin pham cing cao va ngddc Iai (Balassa, 1965):
RCA. = ^ ^ - ^ (1)
Trong do: RCA(ki) - chi sd LTSS cua sin pham k; X(ki) - KNXK s i n pham k cua nddc i; X(i) - KNXK cua midc i; X(kw) - KNXK san pham k cua the gidi; X(w) - KNXK cua the gidi.
Nhd viy theo ly thuyet LTSS, chinh sach thiidng mai qudc te ciia qudc gia cSn xay ddng theo hddng tap trung san xuat v i xuat khau san pham cd LTSS v i nhap khau s i n pham khdng cd LTSS. TrSn n6n t i n g ly thuyet LTSS, xiy dling va thdc hien chinh sach thddng mai qudc te se dem lai ldi ich qudc gia ngay ca trong thdi dai toin cau hda va hgi nhap qudc te.
' h a n g 0iaO2.2O17 ' T A P C H I C 6 N Q N G H I N G A N H A N 0
QUAN HETHaONG MAI GIQA VIET NAM VA TRUNG QU6C
2.2. Cac mo hinh danh gia quan he thddng mai va sd lieu nghien cdu
2^.1. Cdc mo hinh ddnh gid quan he thUdng
2.2.1.1. CUdngdo thitOngmqi
Cddng dp thddng mai phan anh mdc do trao ddi QHTM gida hai qudc gia {Kojima, 1964). Cddng dp thddng mai bao gdm cddng dp xuat khau (The Export Intensit>- Index - XII), cddng dp nhap khau (The Import Intensity Index - MII) va cddng do thddng mai chung (Trade Intensit)' Index - TII) dddc xac dinh theo cac cdng thdc 2, 3 v i 4 (Kojima, 1964;Wadhvava Ahscr, 1985).
• Cddng dp xuat khau phan anh mdi tdong quan gifla ti le xuat khau cua nddc i tdi nddc j trong tdng KNXK cua nddc i va ti Ie n h i p khau ciia nddc j so vdi tdng nhip khau td the gidi ben ngoai (1). Chi sd cddng dp xuat khau cang Idn phin anh nddc j cang quan trgng ddi vdi hoat dgng xuat khiu cua nddc i. Neu XII Idn hdn 1, thi nddc j la thi trddng xuat khau quan trgng doi vdi nddc i vi ngdpc lai (Bandara vi Smith, 2002). Ngoii ra chi sd XII ting len theo thdi gian phan anh mdc do quan trong tang len cua thi trudng xuat khau j doi vdi nddc i va ngdpc lai:
>:ii„= -T-. '— (2)
"'/,
(M„ - M,)anh mile do quan trong cua thi trvlcfng nhap khau j doi vdi quoc gia i va ngUcJc lai:
M i i „ = •— '•'
Trong do Xll(ij) - cil6ng dp xuat khau;
X(ij) - KNXK cua nUdc i sang nUcfc j , X(i) - KNXK ciia nUoc i; M()) - kim ngach nhap khau cua nudc j , .\I(i) - kim ngach nhap khau cua nudc i; M(\i) - tong KNXK the gidi.
• Cudng dp nhap khau phan anh mdi tuong quan gida ti le nhap khau cua nUdc i td nUdc j trong tong kim ngach nhap khau cua nUdc i va ti le xuat khau ciia nddc j so vdi long xuat khau sang the gidi ben ngoai (2). Neu chi so ,\1II ldn hon 1 thi nudc j la thi trUdng nhap khau quan trpng cua nddc i, chi so cudng dp nhap khau cang ldn phan anh nUdc j la thi truong nhap khau cang quan trpng doi vdi nUdc i Ngoai ra, chi so cudng dp nhap khau hudng tang phan
X. /(X,,-X,)
Trong dd: Mll(ij) - cddng do nhap khau;
M(ij) - kim ngach nhap khau cua nddc i tiJ nddc j ; X(j) - KNXK cua nddc j ; X(w) - KNXK ciia the gidi; M(i) - kim ngach nhap khau cua nddc i; X(i) - KNXK cua nddc i.
• Cddng dp thdong mai chung phan anh mdc dp QHTM gifla hai quoc gia va ddpc do Iddng b^ng chi so cddng dd thuong mai (TII)- TII ldn hon 1 phan anh nddc j la ddi tac quan trong cua nddc i, ngdpc lai chi so TII nhd hdn 1 phan anh nddc j la doi tac khdng quan trpng CLia nddc i. Ngoai ra, chi so TII tang len theo thdi gian phan mdc dp quan trpng tang len cua nudc j dpi vdi nddc i va ngdoc lai:
(4)
• » / T
Trong do: Tll(ij) - cddng dp thdong mai gifla nddc i va nddc j ; T(ij) - kim ngach xuat nhap khau cua nddc i vdi nddc j ; T(iw) - tong kim ngach xuat n h i p khau cua nddc i ra the gidi; T(jw) - kim ngach thddng mai cua nddc j;
T(ww) - Idm ngach thddng mai toan cau.
2.2.1.2. ThU0ngmqi ngi ngdnh (Intra-Industry trade) Chi sd thddng mai npi nganh dddc xay ddng bdi hai nha khoa hoc la Grubel va Lloyd, ddpc ky hieu Ii GL. Chi sd GL phan anh mdc dp trao ddi thddng mai qudc te cua ciing mot nganh giiia hai qudc gia. Chi sd GL cd gia tri giao dpng tfl 0 den 1, neu GL = 1 hay X(kij) = M(kij) cd nghia thddng mai hang hda k gifla hai qudc gia I i thdong mai ndi nginh hoan toin. Neu GL = 0, thi hoac X(kij) hay M(kij)
= 0 phan anh thddng mai san pham k gifla hai quoc gia li thdong mai lien nganh hoan toan (Grubel va Lloyd 1975):
|(X|
GL = 1 - - M„,)l
(Xk.,+ Mk„) (5)
TAP Ch' CflNGNGHe N G A N HANG i-g 01&02.2017 So 1305131
LETUANLOC
Trong do: GL(ij) - chi sd thddng mai ngi nganh; X(ki)) - gia tri xuat khi'u cua nddc i sang nddc j ; M(kij) - gia t n nhap khau hang hda k cua nddc i td nddc j .
2.2.1.3. Chi so dmh hUdng khu vUc (Regional Orientation - RO)
Chi sd RCA (md hinh 1) phan anh LTSS cua sin pham cu the tren thi trddng the gidi, RCA cang Ion thi kha nang canh tranh cua san pham cing cao va ngddc Iai. Tuy nhien, chi sd RCA khdng phan anh kha nang canh tranh cua san pham d tdng thi trddng cu the. Vi du, gao xuat khi'u cua Viet Nam cd chi sd RCA rat cao nhdng khdng the canh tranh vdi gao cua Thai Lan d thi tnidng Thai Lan. Chi sd djnh hddng khu vdc bd sung cho chi sd RCA de xac dinh LTSS cua san pham d mgt thi trddng qudc gia hay thi tnidng khu viic cu the:
>^u,/v (6)
Trong do: RO - chi sd dinh hddng khu vdc;
X(kij) - KNXK san pham k ciia qudc gia i den khu vdc j ; X(ki) - KNXK san pham k cua nddc I, X(ki-J) - KNXK k cua qudc gia iden quoc gia ); X(i-)) - KNXK quoc gia i den khu vdc;.
Neu RCA>1 va RO>l thi san pham k cd ITSS tren thi trddng j , con trong cac trddng hop khac hoac khdng xac dinh hoac san pham khdng CO LTSS tren thi trddng) (David, 2010).
2.2.2. So lieu nghien cdu
Nghien cdu sd dung so lieu cua Trung tam thddng mai quoc te (ITC) v i Cd quan thoni; ke Lien Hop qudc (UN Comtrade).
Hang hda xuat khau dddc phan loai theo tieu chuan thdong mai qudc te SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) vdi 10 cum san pham theo nam mflc bao gom \'di hang nghin sin pham khac nhau. Trong nghien cflu, tac gii sfl dung mdc phan loai mgt chfl so theo tieu chuan SITC. Ngoai ra, tac gia sfl dung sd lieu thdng ke theo phin loai HS (Harmonized Commodity Description and Cording System) hai chfl sd de danh gia LTSS cua hing hda
xuat khau cua hai nddc. Giai doan nghien cdu 2001-2015 dddc chpn do hoat dpng xuat khau cua \'iet Nam vdi Tmng Qudc khdi sac sau 10 nam (1991-2001) tram lang.
3. Ket qua nghien cuTu va thao luan 3.1. Trao ddi thddng mai giiia Viet Nam va T m n g Qudc
Trung Qudc la ddi tac thddng mai hang dau cua Viet Nam trong thdi kj- md cda va hpi nhap kinh te qudc te. Nam 2015, kim ngach thdong mai hai chieu gifla hai nddc dat hon 91 t\' USD, cao gap doi so vdi ddi tac thddng mai thfl hai la My vdi kim ngach 46 t)' USD.
Tdc dp ling trddng xuat khau cua Trung Qudc sang \'iet Nam cao hon so vdi xuat khau td
\'iet Nam vao Trung Quoc, neu nam 2001, ty Ie gifla KN^XK cua Trung Qudc sang Viet Xam va KNXK \'iet Nam sang Trung Qudc li 1,2 lan thi nam 2015, ty le nay tang Ien gan ba lan. He qua la tham hut thdgng mai cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc lien tuc tang qua cac nam, tfl 189 trieu USD nam 2001 len den hon 29 ty USD nam 2015, cao gap gan hai lan KNXK cua Viet Nam vao Trung Qudc trong nam 2015. Tdng tham hut thddng mai cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc giai doan 2001-2015 hdn 140 ty USD, nhieu nhat gifla cac ddi tie thddng mai cua Viel Nam trong thdi ky nay.
3.2. Cd cau xuat khau
Co cau xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Trung Qudc va ngddc lai ddpc phan anh trong Bang 1.
Trong CO cau xuat khau ddi vdi tflng nddc, xuat khau cua Viet Nam cd mdc do phin tan cao hdn SO vdi xuat khi'u cua Trung Qudc sang Viet Nam Trong khi t\- trpng phan bd deu han gida cic nhdm san pham trong cd cau xuat khau tfl Viet Nam sang Trung Qudc thi ngdpc lai, ty trgng tip trung vao mpt sd cum hing hoa trong ca cau xuat khi'u tfl Tmng Qudc sang Viet Nara. Cd cau xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Tmng Qudc t i p tmng \'io may moc va phflong tien vin tai {cum 7); hang che tac (cum 6); thflc pham (cum 0) vdi tdng t)- trgng la 71%. Nhap khau cua Viet Nam td Tmng Qudc tap trung vao hai nhdm hang quan
SO130&131 - n a n g O l & 0 2 . 2 0 1 7 T A P C H I C O N G NGHE NGAN HANG
QUAN HETHI/ONG MAI GIDAVIET NAM VA TRUNG QU6C
Bang 1: Ty trong xuat khau va nhap khau cua Viet Nam vdi Trung Quoc (nain 2014)
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 S 9 10
San pham Cum 0: Thu'c pham, dong vat s6-g Cum 1: Giai khat, thuoc la Cum 2: Nguyen lieu tho Cum 3: Nhien lieu Cum 4: DSu mS dong thuc vat Cum 5: Hoa chat C y m 5 Hangche lac Cum 7: May moc va thiet bi van tai Cum 8: Hang che tac hon hi?p Cum 9: Hang hoa khong phan loai
N h | p khau ( t r i e u USD)
630 44 447 2.158 4 3.876 13.653 20.130 2.690 9 43.647
Ty t r o n g
1,4 0,1 1,0 1,9 0,0 8,9 31,3 46,1 6,2 0,0 100,0
Xuatk (ttieu U
l a u Ty t r p n g SDJ (X) 2.907
176 1.157 1.717 31 1.206 2.332 3.864 1.535 0 14.928
19,5 1,2 7,8 11,5 0,2 8,1 15,6 25,9 10,3 0,0 100,0 Nguon- T6ng hap ti/sd Ii0u thong ke Lien Hdp qudc nam 2014 trpng )a may moc, pliUdng tien van tai (cum 7)
va )iang clie tac (cum 6) vcri toiig K- trong iiorn 83°,,. C)lat lapng xuat idiaulu \'ict NamdadUpc cai IJiien nhieu nliung trong co cau xuat lihau, cac mat )iang nong sdn, san pliam so che va san phaim tho van chiem t}' trong ldn (hon 40%), trong khi t)- trong cac nhom san pham tUimg M nhap khau til Trung Quoc chi chiem 7,5% kim ngach nhap khau. \'iet \ a n i cung nhap khau gia tri lon nguyen heu va linh kien phuc vu san xuat
trong nudc nhu da gray, nguyen lieu det may va cac san pham trung gian khac.
Xem xet 10 mat hang xuat khau hang dau ciia Viel Nam va Trung Quoc trong cd cau xuat khau cua hai nUdc. Xuat khau tii Vi^t Nam bao gom san phsfm nguyen lieu tho, mach dien tit va san pham nong nghiep (Bang 2, 3) con cac san pham xuat khau hang dau ciia Trung Quoc sang Viet Nam - cac mat hang dien tU thanh pham, sit thep va thanh pham, nguyen heu d8t Hinh 1: Kim ngach thuang mai giiJa Viet Nam va Trung Quoc trong giai doan 2001-2015
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
-^-
r
: j w ^ ^ ^ i a * * , ^ ' ^ . * « « -
OOn vi ti'nh: Irieu USD
-NKtirTQ
•XK tir TQ
•Can can
2015
Ngu6n: Tong hap ti/ Ihdng ke Uin Hap qu6c
TAP CHi CONG NGH? NGAN HANG
Bang 2: Cac mat hang xuat khau hang dau cua Viet Nam sang Trung Quoc (nam 2014)
Ma HS
•85 ' 2 7 ' 5 2
•10 ' 4 0 ' 4 4 , '84
•08
•11
•64
Hang hoa
May dien va thiet bj dien Nhien lieu va san pham Bong
Ngu coc
Cao su va san pham cao su Go va mat hang lis go May moc, noi hdi, trang thiet bj cd khi
Qua va hat, dt/a hau, cam quyt San pham xay xat, tinh bot Giay dep va phi^ l<i^n
Kim ngach (ngh'm USD) 2.677.489 [
1.717.426 1.178.361 895.182 831.900 757.825 723.138 693.073 633.765 524,814 Nguon: So lieu long hdp tif Trung tam thUdng mai
quoc tenam 2014
Bang 3: Cac mat hang xuat khau hang dau cua Trung Quoc vao Viet Nam (nam 2014)
H
a Hang hoa S
' 8 5 ' 8 4
,
27 ' 3 9
•60
•55
•52
•73
•87
May dien, thi^t bi dien May moc, n6i hdi, trang thiet bi cdkhi
S^tthep
Nhien lieu va san pham Nhi/a va san pham nhi/a Hang det l(im hoSc moc S(f\ Staple nhan tao Bong
Sanph^m tif sSt thep Xe c6 va phg tung xe
Kim ngach (nghin USD)
13.783.341 6.114.984 4.069.155 21G8 910 1.473.770 1.428.500 1.322 606 1.073.355 1.020.334 926.484 Ngudn- Sfi li?u t6ng h0p tif Trung tim thifdng m^i
qu6c tenSm 2014
LETUANLOC
may va da giay. GiiJfa cac nhom san pham xuat khau hang dau ciia Viet Nam va Trung Quoc, nhieu mat hang giong nhau va dieu do cho thay xuat khau giQa Viet Nam va Trung Quoc CO xu hadng vifa canh tranh viia bo sung.
3.3. Ciicfng dp thuang mai
Ciidng dp thupng mai gifla Viet Nam va Trung Quoc (Bang 4) dUpc tinh toan dUa tren so Heu thong ke cua Lien H d p quoc. Chi so cUdng dp t h u a n g mai gifla hai nfldc luon ldm h a n 1 trong giai doan 2001-2014, da chflng to Trung Quoc la doi tac quan trpng cua Viet Nam trong qua trinh hpi nhap kinh te quoc te. Tuy nhien, chi so cUdng dp thflpng mai co xu hu6ng giam dan tfl 2,65 xuong con 1,51 trong giai doan 2001-2014, phan anh vai tro cua thi trudng Trung Quoc doi vdi Vi?t Nam ngay cang giam. Viet Nam hpi nhap sau vao nen kinh te the gidi, moi lien ket thUPng mai quoc te dupc md rpng, hoat dpng xuat nhap khau Clia Viet Nam vdi the gidi tang nhanh, nhat la cac thi trUdng ldn nhU My, EU va Nhat Ban, do vay vai tro cua Trung Quoc Irong thuang mai quoc te cua Viet Nam giam dan.
Rieng cfldng dp xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Trung Quoc giam manh, tfl 2,44 nam 2081 xuong con 0,78 nam 2014 da phan ^nh vai tro cua thi trUdng Trung Quoc giam so vdi cac thi trUdng khac cua the gidi, dieu nay dong nghia vdi xuat khau cua Viet Nam vao Trung Quoc tang cham h a n nhieu so vdi toe dp tang xuat khau vao thi trfldng the gidi. Ngoai ra, chi so IIT giam hen tuc cung cho thay, mpt mat Viet Nam van chfla khai thac hieu qua thi trfldng Trung Quoc, mat khac Viet Nam cdn qua chu trpng den xuat khau sang cac thi trfldng ldn, nhfl My va EU. Cfldng dp nhap khau cd xu hudng giam dan, tuy nhien toe Bang 4: Cu'dng do thi/dng mai giCra Viet Nam va Trung Quoc
STT
1 2 3
cudng dp xuSt khiu cua Vi^t Nam sang Trung Quoc cudng do nhap khau cua Vift Nam tir Trung Quoc cudng dp thUdng m^i giCTa Vi^t Nam va Trung Ouoc
2001 2,44 2,67 2,65
2005 1,60 2,17 1,95
2010 1,17 2,26 1,82
2014 0,78 2,00 1,51 Ngu6n: Tong h0p tCrs6li$u thong ke Lien H0p quoc trong giai do^n 2001-2014
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dp giam cham va duy tri d mUc dp tUdng doi cao la 2.0 nam 2014, dieu nay cho thay nhap khau cua Viet Nam van con phu thupc nhieu vao thi trUdng Trung Quoc va trong thdi gian ngin tdi khd cd kha nang dieu chinh ddng thuang mai nay.
Trung Qudc la doi tac thUang mai quan trpng nhat cua \'iet Nam trong nhflng nam gan day, dieu nay dflpc the hien bang ty trong ldn cua kim ngach xuat nhap khau gifla \'iel Nam va Trung Quoc trong ca cau xuat nhap khau ciia \'iet Nam Trung Quoc la thi trUdng xuat nhap khau quan trpng cua \'iet Xam nhd nhu cau thi trUdng ldn, vi tri thuan lpi doi vdi hoat dpng xuat khau, thoa thuan hpp tac thUPng mai gifla Viet Nam va Trung Qudc da dUPc ky ket.
Dac biet, hoat dpng nhap khau cua \'ict X.mi tU Trung Qudc tang manh vdi cfldng dp rat cao nhd nhu cau ldn ve nguon nguyen lieu cho hoat ddng san xuat va xuat khau cua \'ict Nam, nhU del ma\, giay dep, phoi thep. Tuy nhien, hoat dpng xuat khau cua \"ict Nam vao Trung Qudc chUa tuang xflng vdi tiem nang \i hau het cac mat hang cd LTSS cua \'iel Nam thi kho co kha nang canh tranh vdi cac mat hang lUPng tU cua Trung Qudc, nhU giay dep, det may. \'iel Nam xuat khau \\ia Trung Quoc chu yeu la cac mat hang ndng, lam, thuy san vdi mUc dd che bien chUa cao va i;ia tri thap, nguyen lieu qua so che hoac tho, do vay so vdi the gidi thi cfldng dp
\uat khau vao Trung Quoc chfla cao.
3.4. Thuang mai noi nganh
Chi so thuong mai noi nganh (GL) gifla \'i(Jl Nam va Trung Quoc trong giai doan 2001-2014 the hien qua Bang 3 Hau het cac cum hang hda' CD chi so thuang mai noi nganh deu gan hun vdi gia tri 0, nhU vay thuong mai gifla \'iet Nam va Trung Qudc cd xu hUdng thuong mai hen ngatih.
'I rong ^d cic cum san pham, cum 3 cd chi so GL g>in \o] 1 trong ca giai doan nghien cUu da phan anh xu hUdng thUOng mai ndi nganh, \'iet Nam xuat khau nhien lieu sang Trung Quoc va dong ihdl nhap khau nhien lieu tfl Trung Quoc. Xu Inning thuonii mai lien nganh cd the giai thich:
1,1) chenh lech thuang mai gifla Trung Quoc va
\'iL-i Nam qua ldn, nen gia tri GL thuang cd
Bang 5: Chi so thu'dng mai npi nganh (GL) gijjfa Viet Nam va Trung Quoc (nam 2014) 1 Sanoham I 2001 | 2005 | 2010 | 2014 : CumO: ThUc phSm
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thuocla Cum 2: Nguyen lieu tho Cum 3: Nhien lieu Cum 4: Dau m3 dong thUc vat Cum 5: Hoa chat 1 Cum 6: Hang ch^
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0,53
0,86 0,57 0,61 0,53 0,23 0,11
0,02 0,39 0,82
0,70 0,55 0,34 0,73 0,94 0,19 0,13
0,22 0,39 0,93
0,63 0,89 0,36 1,00 0,65 0,34 0,37
0,23 0,47 0,68
0,36 0,40
0,56 0,89 0,25 0,47
0,29
0,32 0,73 0,11 Nguon: Tinh toan tif so lieu thong ke Lien H0p quoc
trong giai doan 2001-2014 xu hudng gan vdi gia tri 1; (ii) chien lUpc dinh hudng xuat khau cua \'ict Nam va Trung Qu6c ddi hdi nhieu nguon nguyen lieu nhap khau doi vdi boat dgng san xuat trong nUdc, do vay nhap khau bo sung ngudn nguyen lieu khac nhau tao ra xu hudng thUOng mai lien nganh gifla Trung Qudc va Viet Nam.
3.5. Lpi the so sanh
Chi so LTSS the hien kha nang canh tranh thUrtng mai qudcte doi vdi tflng cum san pham cua Trung Quoc va Viet Nam tren thi trfldng the gidi va tflng thi trudng cu the. Trong 10 cum san pham, Trung Qudc va Viet Nam deu cd ba cum san pham cd LTSS. Trong khi Trung Qudc cd LTSS d nhflng san pham che tac, may mdc va phupng tien van tai (cum 6 va 7) thi Viet Nam lai c6 LTSS d cac san pham la thflc pham, nguyen lieu thd va cac mat hang che tac (cumO, 2 v a 9 ) .
Tuy nhien, khi xet den chi &6 dinh hudng
1 2 TAP CH! C O N G N G H £ N G A N H A N G T 0 1 & 0 2 , 2 0 1 7 SO 1308131
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Cum 0: ThUc pham, dong vat song Cum 1: Giai khat, thuoc la CiJm 2: Nguyen lieu tho Cum 3: Nhien lieu CMm 4: Oau mS dong thUc vat Cum 5- Hoa chat
Cum 6: Hang che tac theo nguyen lieu Cum 7: May moc va thiet bi van tai Cum 8: Hang che tac hon htJp Cum 9: Hang hoa khong phan loai
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khu vUc (RO), Trung Qudc chi cd LTSS d 1 cum san pham la san pham che tac theo nguon nguyen lieu (cum 6). Thda man hai dieu kien RCA va RO, \'iet Nam cd hai cum san pham cd LTSS lai thi trUdng Trung Qudc \k cum 0 va cum hai (Bang 6). Nhu va\, \'iet Nam cd LTSS d cac mat hang ndng, lam, thuy san va nguyen lieu tho, trong khi Trung Quoc cd LTSS doi vdi cac san pham che tac theo nguon nguyen lieu.
\'iet Nam da tan dung duac loi the ve ngudn lUc lao dpng ddi ,dao trong iTnh vUc ndng nghiep, VI tri dia ly, dieu kien thdi tiet va thd nhudng de san xuat va xuat khau vao Trung Quoc cac mat hang ndng san. Trung Qudc trd thanh cdng trUdng cua the gidi ve san xuat thiet hi, phu tiing, linh kien va nguon nguyen lieu san xuat va the hien dUOc lpi the nay d thi trUdng Met Nam Rd rang la bat loi ddi vdi
\'ict Nam tren giac dp can can thanh toan vi KNXK hang ndng san ludn thap hon nhieu so vtfi kim ngach nhap khau hang cdng nghiep, do vav can can thuang mai gifla hai qudc gia ludn tham hut doi \di Viet Nam.
Xem xel HS hai chfl sd, nghien cuu nhan dang nhflng san pham cd LTSS chung cua Trung Qudc va \'iet Nam tren thi trUdng the gidi, nhflng san pham cd ITSS rieng le lhi trudng Trung Quoc va \'iet Nam Trong 100 nhdm san pham theo xep loai HS hai chfl so,
\'iet Nam co 46 san pham cd LTSS (RCA>1).
Ngudn. Tinh toan (U thong ke Uen Hdp quoc nam 2014 Tuy nhien, khi kel hpp vdi chi sd dinh hudng khu vflc (R0>1), so Iflpng san pham cd LTSS cua \'iet Nam tai thi trfldng Trung Qudc giam xudng cdn 27 san pham, NhU vay sd lUpng san pham cd LTSS chiem 27% long san pham xuat khau sang Trung Qudc {Bang 7). KNXK cac san pham cd LTSS chiem 44% tdng KNXK cua \'iet Nam vao thi IrUdng Trung Qudc Cac mat hang cd LTSS thudc linh vUc ndng nghiep, lam nghiep, thuy san chiem 90% KNXK cua nhdm, ty le 10% cdn lai thupc cac san pham del may va cac hang hda khac. Nhfl vay, kel qua phfl hpp vdi RCA theo SITC mpt chfl so - \'iel Nam cd LTSS d cac mat hang ndng nghiep, lam nghiep, thuy san va nguyen lieu thd, cung vdi mdt so san pham cd ham lUpng che bien va cdng nghe thap nhU may mac, ndi that, gdm sfl... Dac diem cua cac san pham nay la gia tri xual khau va gia tri gia tang cua chung khdng cao.
Trong tong so 100 nhdm san pham cap dp hai theo phan loai HS, Trung Quoc cd LTSS d 46 mal hang. Tuy nhien khi xet cung chi so RO, Trung Qudc chi cdn 26 san pham cd LTSS tai thi trudng \'iel Nam, chiem 26% nhdm san pham xuat khau vao \'iel Nam San pham sal thep la mat hang xuat khau hang dau gifla nhflng san pham cd LTSS va chiem ban 34% tong KNXK cac mat hang cd LTSS lfl Trung Qudc sang Viel Nam. Rieng nguyen lieu del may chiem ty trpng
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I r s s tfl Trung Qudc xuat khau vao \'iet Nam.
Nhan dang san pham cd LTSS theo HS hai chfl sd hoan loan phfl hop vdi phan lich LTSS theo SITC mdi chfl sd la san pham cd LTSS nSm d
nhdm san pham che lac theo ngudn nguyen lieu. San pham cd LTSS cua Trung Quoc tap Irung d ngudn nguyen lieu kim loai vk det may, ngoai ra mot so mat hang khac nhii phan bdn, thuoc no chiem ty trpng nhd.
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4. Ket luan va kien nghj chinh sach
4.1. Kel luan
Til ket qua nghien ciiu ve m5i QHTM gifla Viet Nam va Trung Quoc, mot so Icet luan tong
hop nha sau: Thit nhat, Trung Quoc la doi tac rat quan trong cua \'iet Xam trong thdi k>' md Clia va hpi nhap quoc te, kim ngach xuat nhap khau gifla hai quoc gia khong ngflng tang len trong giai doan 2001-2015. Tuy nhien, kim
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V a i d e t t h o i d i e b i e t N h o m v a s a n p h a m n h o m S a n p h a m t i / k i m l o a i c d b a n M S t h a n g c h e t a o k h a c T h u y t i n h va s a n p h a m t h i j y t i n h C a c l o a i s d i d a c b i e t : d a y t h f l n g , c a p S a n p h a m b S n g da, t h a c h c a o , x i m a n g S a n p h a m t f l d o n g v a t , c h i dUtfc c h i t i e t g h i d c a c m u c k h a c
Da l o n g v a d a l o n g n h a n t a o , s a n p h S m t f l c h i j n g
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S a n p h a m m a y , t r e , la
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QUAN HE THl/ONG MAI GIQA VIET NAM VA TRUNG Qli6C
ngach nhap khau tii Trung Quoc tang nhanh hon nhieu so vdi KN'XK tir \"iet Nam, do vay tham hul can can thiiong mai cua \'iet Nam vdi Trung Quoc ngay cang tang. Thii hai, cuong dp thiidng mai giOa Xlel Xam va Trung Quoc giam cho ihay tam quan trgng cda thi trudng Trung Quoc doi vdi hoat dpng xuat nhap khau cua
\'iet Nam ngay cang giam xuong. Trong khi dd, phat trien hoat dong thuong mai quoc te cua
\'iel Nam vdi the gidi nhanh hcfn so vdi Trung Quoc. Thd ba, xual khju cua \'iet Xam sang lh| Inidng Trung Quoc la cac san pham thiet bi dien tii, nhien heu, nguven heu tho, cac san pham nong, Iam, Ihuy san, trong khi Met Nam nhap khau tii Trung Quoc chii yeu cac thiet hi may mdc dien til, kim loai va nguyen Ueu san xuat. Jhii tu, QHTM gifla \'ict Xam va Trung Quoc cd xu hfldng thflpng mai hen nganh, \'ic[
Nam xuat khau cac san pham ma thi trfldng Trung Quoc con thieu va nhap khau tii Trung Quoc nguyen Heu de san xuat va xual khau ra Ihl trfldng the gidi. Thii nam. X'let Xam cd LTSS Iai thi trudng Trung Quoc 27 nhdm Irong 100 nhdm san pham (HS 2 chfl so) va lap trung
\ao nguyen Heu thd. khoang san, san pham nong, lam, ihuy san. Trung Quoc cd LTSS lai thi trfldng \'ict Nam 25 nhom trong 100 nhom hang va tap trung vao sdn pham che tac.
1.2 Kien nghi chinh sach
Tfl phan lich Iren, nghien cflu de xuat khuyen nghj chinh sach Irong chien Iflpc thflong mai quoc le vdi Trung Quoc nhfl sau:
Thd nhdt. xuat khau nhien Heu va khoang san thd lam giam gia t n xuat khau va gay that Ihoal ngudn tai nguyen dat nfldc, do vay chinh
phu can ap dung cac bien phap khac nhau de giam xual khau mat hang tho ra nfloc ngoai, trong dd cd Trung Quoc.
Thvt hai, Viet Nam tiep tuc xtic tien de day manh xuat khau htfn nfla cdc mat hang xuat khau chu lflc sang thi trfldng Tmng Quoc. Ben canh dd, cac doanh nghiep cua \'iot Nam can khai thac hieu qua hon cac san pham cd LTSS bang each tang ham Iflpng che bien, nhat la cac san pham nong, lam va ngfl nghiep, han che xuat khau nguyen lieu thd hoac san pham so che. Chinh phu can chu trpng khuyen khich va hd trp doanh nghiep san xuat xuat khau, trong do dac biet flu lien doi vdi cac doanh nghiep
\'fla va nhd trong Hnh vUc che bien va xual khau.
Thd ba, phat trien nguon nguyen lieu trong nfldc de giam nhap khau tii Trung Quoc va lang gia tri xuat khau, nhat la nguyen lieu cd nhu cau ldn doi vdi san xual trong nfldc, nhfl nguyen lieu del may, nguyen lieu da giay, linh kien va phu lung may moc. Hoai dpng nay se cang thiet thflc hon khi dflpc Qudc hpi Viet Xam phe chuain, \'iet Nam chinh thflc Ird thanh thanh vien TPP trong thdi gian ldi vk
\'ict Nam can phai dap ung yeu cau ve khu vflc hda de tan dung cac flu dai cua TPP.
Tini tu, tang cfldng xuc lien thflOng mai de xuat khau nhieu hon ra lhi trfldng the gidi tranh sfl phu thudc vao mpt hoac mpt so thi trfldng, nhat la thi IrUdng Trung Quoc nham han che rui ro xuat khau.
Thd nam, day manh qua trinh hpi nhap kinh te qudc te v^ thflc hien cac cam ket thfldng mai da ky kel nhSm md rpng hcfn nfla lhi trfldng nfldc ngoai lao dieu kien cho hang hda cua \^el Nam tiep can de dang vdi thi trfldng nfldc ngoai.
Tai lieu tham khao
Balassa. B [ !965) Trade Liberalization and Revealed Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School of tconormc lournal97 923-939.
B a n c t a . 1S. and Sm.th. C (20021 Trade Policy Reforms m South As,a and Aus.ral,a-South Asia Trade:
Inlen-s,t,es and Compleme„.ar,lies.So-,M«» Economic/„„„,„/,3(2).pp 177-199
Bano _S. and Senmgeour, F. (2012). U e Expor, Growth and Revealed Comparai.ve Advantage of the S'c..- Zealand knvifrm, Indusln- l,„cr„anonal B „ s , „ „ , Research, 1 February, pp 73-82
Dav,d, C. (2010). Methods for Ex Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements, Asian Development
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Bank,/^DB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration. No. 52.
Grubd. H. and Lloyd. P (1975) htra-lndmlry Trade: The Theory and .Measurement of International Trade m Differentiated Products. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Hassan. R. (2013). An Analysis of Competiti\-eness of Pakistan's Agriculmral Export Commodities. Vie Asian Economic Review, Vol. 55, (3) pp. 419-42".
Koiima, K (19641 The patterns of trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi journal of Economics.
June, pp. 16-36.
Learner. A.E (1995). The Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and Practive. Princeton Studies m International Finance
Pham Thi Minh Ly va Le Tuan Loc (2015). Nghien cijlu ve moi quan h? giCa thiidng m ^ Viet - Trung v i lang trudng kinh te cua \'iet Nam giai doan 1992-2014. Tap chi Sghien ciiu kinh te, so 3 (442).
Wadhva. C D . and Ahser, M G. (1985). ASEA\-South Asia economic relations. Singapore. Institute of South, Asian Studies.
Trade relations between Vietnam and China
LeTuan Loc'^'
Received: 10 November 2016 [ Revised: 02 January 2017 I Accepted: 10 January 2017
ABSTRACT: The research studies the trade relations (TR) between Vietnam and China in the 2001-present period, and on that basis identifies the char- acteristics and trends of trade relations between the two countries and proposes policy recommendations with an aim to increase the efficiency of trade relation between Vietnam and China. Using the theory of comparative advantage and the TR assessment model, the research confirms that China is an important trading partner of Vietnam. China's exports to Vietnam are mainly manufactured products and raw materials, while Vietnam's exports to China are agricultural and aquatic products. It is recommended that Vietnam continue integration to expand export markets, strengthen the production and exports of manufactured products with high added value, focus on export products with comparative advantages, and support industries to reduce imports from China.
KEY WORDS: comparative advantages, trade relations, Vietnam and China.
Le Tuan Loc Email: [email protected],vn.
- University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University - HCMC Quarter 3, Linh Xuan Ward, Thu Due District, Ho Chi Minh City
So 130&131 Thaig 01&02.2017 TAPCHi CONG NGHE NGAN HANG
