Van de nhap sieu cue Viet Nam sau 5 nam gia nhap WTO
TS. VC HiiNC cu'(5(^G•
Ciing r&i qud trinh ddy mgnh hgi nh(ip quoc ti, sd lugng qudc gia tra thanh ddi tdc thuang mgi qudc ti ciia Vii^l Nam ngdy cdng dugc m& rgng. Hgi nhgp Idnh te quoc te tgo ca hgi cho cdc san phdm cua Viet Nam vuan ra thi truang the gi&i, nhung dong thai cUng m& cua cho mgi lugng l&n hdng hda xdm nhgp vdo Viet Nam. Viec thieu kiem sadt ch^t ch§ hogt dgng nhgp khdu (cd chinh thue vd phi chinh thiic) trong th&i gian ddi, khiin nhgp sieu (NS) dgng tra thdnh cdn b^nh mang tinh kinh nien cda nen kinh ti vd tr& nen nghiem trgng han sau khi Viet Nam chinh thirc gia nhdp WTO. Xet ve gac dg cua mgt quoc gia dang phdt trien. nh^p sieu c& the coi Id cdn thiet khi nen kinh te Viet Nam con dang a trinh dg phdt trien thdp, ndng luc sdn xudt con hgn che, cdn nh4p siiu di tdng tru&ng do yeu cdu ddu tu de phdt trien nhanh, cdn tdng cuong nhgp khdu nhung yeu to "ddu vdo " cho sdn xudt. Vdn de Id phdi tdi ca cdu hdng hda xudt nhap khdu, bdo ddm ty le nhdp sieu hgp ly vd tien t&i gidm nhgp sieu, timg buac cdn bdng kim nggch xudt khdu vd nhdp khdu trong tuang lot gdn, de khong ldm dnh hu&ng lan din sir kinh te vT mo ciia Viet Nam.
Bdi viet ndy tap trung ddnh gid thue trgng xudt, nh^p khdu vd nhgp sieu ctia Viet Nam sau 5 ndm gia nhdp WTO, chi ra bdn chdt vd nguyen nhdn da nhifp siiu, tir dd di xudt mgt sd dinh hu&ng, khuyin nghj cdi thien cdn cdn thuang mgi ctia Viet Nam theo hudng gidm ddn tinh trgng nhgp siiu trong thai ky ddy mgnh hgi nh^p kinh ti qudc ti vd thifc hien tdi cdu triic nin kinh ti.
1. Thyc trang xuit nhip khau vd edn cin ty do ASEAN - Nhgt Bin (thdng 12/2008), thvvng mai ciia Vipt Nam sau 5 ndm gia ASEAN - ijc + Niu-Di-Lan (ndm 2009), nhgp WTO ASEAN - An Dp (ndm 2010). Hien nay, Viet
Sau khi chinh thirc trd thdnh thdnh vien thir ^^^ "^""S dang thgm gia tich vyc vdo thiie diy 150 ciia Ti ehirc Thuong mai Thl gidi (WTO) "^^ dvng Hipp dinh Thuong mai xuyen Thdi ndm 2007, Vipt Nam lilp lyc diy mgnh vd ehu ^ ' ^ Duang (TPP), dy kiln dupe V.-J kit vdo dpng h§i nhgp kinh tl quoc ll, md r^ng k^ kit ™°' " ^ 2012. Ngoai ra, Hiep djnh thuong mgi song phuang va dg phuong. La thanh vidn cua ^ ^° 8'ttf Viet Nam vdi LiSn minh ehdu Au ASEAN, Vi^t Nam dd tham gia khu thuang mai <=™8 ^^ ''*< ^^^ •**• dOng cdc vdng ddm phdn'.
* Vi?n Khoa hgc l i h^i Vif t Nam ' Doin Duy Khuong (2012).
Q NhOmg vin di KINH M. vA CHiNH TR| THE Gidl S6 9(197) 2012
vdn 6h nhap si^u cua Vi^t Nam.. VU Hung Cu'dng Di d6i vdi qud trinh hdi nhdp kinh te quic tl
la 16 trinh eat gidm thue quan theo cde cam kdt FTA. Hd qud Id, ngogi trir nam 2009 ting kim ngach xuit khiu vd nhap khiu hdng h6a ddu tdng trudng am do anh hudng cua cupe khung hodng tdi chfnh va suy thodi kinh tl todn ciu 2009 - 2010, tir ndm 2007 trd lai day, long kim nggch xuat khdu (XK) vd nhap khdu (NK) hdng hoa ciia Vidt Nam diu tdng. Toe dd tdng trudng ting kim nggch xuat khiu hdng h6a lien tyc tang, nam 2007 dat 21%, ndm 2008 dat 29%, din ndm 2011 da tdng mgnh dgt 34%. Tinh din thdng 8/2012, toe dp tdng trudng long kim nggch xull khiu tdng 17,8% so vdi eung ky nam 2011^. Xdt trdn s6 tuyet doi, long kim ngach xuit khau ndm 2011 dat 96.906 trieu USD, gip 2,4 lan ndm 2006 - thdi didm ngay tmdc khi gia nhdp WTO (dat 39.826 tridu USD) vd gip 1,99 lln ndm 2007 (dgt 48.561 didu USD) (xem Hinh I). Sy gia tdng long kim ngach xudt khau hang hoa ehu yeu do toe d6 tang cao ve gid tri xuat khdu cua mgt so mat hang la ddu vdo eho hogt dpng sdn xuat do gid thd gidi tang, do Id cdc mat hdng vd san va sdn pham cda sdn, hat tidu, xdng ddu, ca phe, cao su, sat thep, sdn pham hoa chat, ddu tho...
Trong khi do, t6ng kim ngach nhgp khdu hang hoa ndm 2011 dat 106.750 tridu USD, gip 2,37 ldn nam 2006 (dat 44.981 tridu USD) vd gip 1,7 lln nam 2007 (dgt 62.764 tridu USD).
Ty Id so sdnh ndy con tdng hon theo eon so tuyet dii udc tinh cda ndm 2012 (xem Hinh 1).
Toe dp tdng trudng ting kim nggch nhgp khdu nam 2007 dgt mdc cao nhdt Id 39%, day Id dilu dl hiiu do tdc dpng cua ehinh sdch bdt ddu md rdng cda vdi thi trudng thl gidi sau khi Vidt Nam gia nhdp WTO, sau d6 tic dp tang trudng
tong kim ngach nhdp khau gidm dan xuong 28% ndm 2008 vd 25% nam 2011. Tinh din thdng 8/2012, toe do tdng trudng ting kim nggch nhap khau gidm 1,2% so vdi cung ky ndm 2011. Cdc m^t hang eo gia tri nhap khdu chiem ty trpng ldn trong tong kim nggch nhap khau la cdc mdt hdng nguyen vdt lieu dau vao cho edc ngdnh gia cong xuat khau vd tieu dung trong nude nhu del may, nguyen phu lieu ddt may, gidy ddp. Dang chu y la su gia tang cao vd tri gid nhap khdu ddi vdi cac mat hang che bidn phdn tljeo nguydn lieu la dau vdo cho hoat dong sdn xuat chdng hgn bong, phdn bon, cao su, lua my, ddu md dpng thyc vat, xang ddu, khi dit h6a long, sgi det, ... Nguyen nhan chu ylu do gid the gidi tdng, mac du mpt so mat hdng da gidm ve khoi lugng nhap khdu do tdc dpng cua nhidu bien phap tdng cudng kiem sodt dl hgn chd nhdp khiu nhihig mat hang tidu dung chua cdn thilt hoac trong nude da san xudt dugc.
Vd cdn can thuong mai, bat ddu nam 2008, nhap sieu co xu budng gidm khd mgnh (Hinh 1).
Tuy nhien, ddy eo phdi Id tin hieu ddng mimg hay khong thi con cdn phdi tidp tuc ban. Nhdp sidu giam mpt phan Id do toe dp tang trudng tong kim ngach xudt khdu tang cao hon so vdi tdc dp tdng ting kim ngach nhdp khdu. Tuy nhidn, vd gid tri tuyet dii thi nhdp sidu van d mdc cao (9.844 hidu USD ndm 2011). Ty Id nhgp sieu/xult khdu d muc cao nhdt Id ndm 2008 vdi 29,7%, sau do lidn tyc gidm xuong chi eon 10,16% ndm 2011 (xem Hinh 2). Ty le nhdp sieu/xult khiu 8 thdng ddu ndm 2012 tilp tyc d mdc rat thdp, chi 0,1%" vd theo udc tinh nam 2012 ehi con 1,8%. Con s6 ndy co thl dugc coi Id tin hidu tfch eye, nhung cdn hit sdc cin trpng bdi sy suy gidm ty Id nhdp sieu/xudt khdu ndy eo
B6 cang Thuong (2012a).
'Nhutrfin, '' Nhu tran.
^hOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHlNH TRj TH^ Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
va Hting Cu^ng Vin ai nhjp sidu cua Vi^t Nam..
thl ehu ylu do yeu to gid xuit khiu tdng, bdt nguon lir sy gia tdng cua nhu ciu thl gidi hodc gid thl gidi chir khdng phdi la hp qud lir sy chuyin biln ca bdn vl co cau hdng xuit khau vd nhgp khiu.
Xem xdt hogl ddng xuit nhgp khiu theo khu vyc kinh ll, bdng 1 vd hinh 3 cho thiy, khu vye cd von diu tu nude ngodi vin td rd uu the vupl trpi so vdi khu vye kinh tc trong nude ve ddng gdp trong ting kim nggch xuit khiu cd nude, tuy ly trpng trong ldng kim nggch xuit khau cd nude cd xu hudng suy gidm nhp, lir 57,9% ndm 2006 xuong 56,8% ndm 2011, nhung khu vyc cd von dau tu nude ngodi chinh Id ddng lye ehil yeu thiic day sy gia ldng long kim nggch xuat khdu ed nude. Chinh khu vyc ndy vdi lie dp tdng Irudng kim nggch xuat khau rat cao, 28,7%
ndm 2010 vd 41% ndm 2011, dd giup eho xuit khdu eiia Vipt Nam phyc hdi nhanh chdng sau giai dogn chiu tde dpng eiia cudc khimg hodng ldi chinh vd suy thodi kinh ll loan ciu nam 2009 - 2010. Tinh din 8 thang nam 2012, long kim ngaeh xuat khiu ea nude udc dgt han 73,35 ly USD, ldng 17,8% so vdi cimg ky, trong dd, xuat khau ciia doanh nghipp cd von diu tu nude ngoai (khdng kl diu thd) ude dgt gin 40,1 ty USD, tdng 38,5%'. Nhu vgy, ed thl thiy, trong bdi cdnh kinh te todn eiu suy thodi, nhu ciu nhdp khiu ciia cdc nude h-en thl gidi gidm, edc doanh nghipp khu vye kinh ll trpng nude bpc 10 khd ndng cgnh tranh rit thip vd gdp khd khdn Idn Irong tim kilm thj ttudng xuit khiu, vd sy gia tang kim nggch xuit khiu 8 thang ndm 2012 hodn lodn do sy ddng gdp cia khu vyc cd von dau lu nude ngodi.
Ngupc Igi vdi linh trang ddng gdp Irong ling kim nggch xuit khiu, khu vye kinh tl ttong
nude lgi chilm ty trpng ldn han so vdi khu vye cd von diu lu nude ngodi trong long kim nggch nh|ip khiu cd nude, mdc dii ty trpng ndy cd xu hudng gidm, tir 63,2% ndm 2006, 65,4% ndm 2007 xuIng cdn 54,2% ndm 2011. Toe dp tdng Irudng kim nggch nhgp khau cua khu vyc kinh tl trong nude lien lye tang mgnh lir ndm 2009 (hinh 3 vd bdng 1). Tinh 8 thdng diu ndm 2012, long kim nggch nhdp khiu ed nude udc dgt 73,4 ty USD, tdng 6,7% so vdi cimg ky, trong dd: kim nggch nhgp khiu cua khu vye kinh tl ttong nude ude dgt gin 34,86 ty USD, gidm 8,5% so vdi cimg ky (do sdn xuit trong nude dang gidm sut), chiem ty ttpng gin 47,5%; kim ngaeh.nhgp khiu cua khu vye cd von dau tu nude ngodi udc dat 38,56 ly USD, tang 25,5% so vdi cimg ky, chilm ty ttpng 52,5% long kim nggch nhap khiu ca nude (do phai nhgp khau nguyen phy h^u de phyc vy sdn xuat vd gia cong lip r^)*. Nhu vgy, su syt giam kim nggch xuat khau va nhap khiu cda khu vuc kinh te trong nude the hipn tinh trgng san xuat kinh doanh cua cdc doanh nghipp trong nude gdp khd khdn nen gidm nhu ciu nh$p khau nguyen vgt lipu vd hdng hdg trung gian Id diu vdo phyc vy cho sdn xuit, chu khdng phdi do tht trudng trong nude dd cung cip duoc hdng hda ttung gian thay thl cho hdng nhgp khiu.
Ve thi trudng xuit nhgp khiu, thyc hipn chinh sdch md cira va hpi nhgp kinh tl qudc te, s i lupng thi ttudng vd kim nggch xuit, nh|p khiu ttong qugn hp thuong mgi quic ll ciia Vipt Nam vdi cdc quoc gia deu ed sy gia tang rd rdt tir sau ndm 2007 (ngogi trir ndm 2009). Cde khu vyc vd quic gia duprc coi Id thi trudng Idn dii vdi xuat nhgp khiu cua Viet Nam Id APEC, ASEAN, EU, Trung Quoc, My, Nhgt Bdn. Tuy nhidn, biic tranh quan h§ thirang mgi vdi moi
'NhutrJn
-Nhthig vin a j KINH Tfe VA CHlNH TRj THE Gidl S4 9(197) 2012
vdn dfe nhdp sidu cua Vigt Nam.. Vu Hung Cu'dng thi trudng lai khdc nhau. Bdng 2 cho thay, Viet
• Nam xuat sidu sang EU vd My, nhdp sidu td APEC, ASEAN, Trung Quie, Ddi Loan. Cac quic gia Vipt Nam nhdp sidu nhieu nhat td tu Trung Quoc, Ddi Loan, Thdi Lan, Singapore.
Hinh 4 cho thay, ty Ip nhgp sidu/xult khiu lu thi trudng ASEAN, Trung Quoc vd Ddi Loan d mdc cao nhat ndm 2007, tuong ung Id 96,15%;
248,60% vd 509,83%. Tuy ty Id ndy ddu cd xu hudng suy gidm nhung ndm 2011 van d muc rat cao, 53,94% dii vdi thi trudng ASEAN, 124,29% dii vdi Trung Quic vd 364,24% doi vdi Dai Loan. Tinh hinh nhdp sieu tu cde thi tnidng ndy chua cd gi sang sua hon theo cdc con so nhdp sidu 8 thang ddu ndm 2012 (Trung Quic hon 9,9 ty USD; Ddi Loan khodng 4,2 ty USD; ASEAN gan 3 ty USD)\ Nhu vdy, Viet Nam dang xull sieu sang cac nude phat triln va nhap sidu td cdc nude dang phdt trien, noi khdng phai la khu vyc co trinh dp cong nghd cao, cdng nghd nguon. Didu ndy chdc chdn anh hucmg ldn ddn khd ndng Vidt Nam thyc hidn tdi du true nin kinh td, thay doi co cdu hdng xudt khau theo hudng tdng ty trpng hang xudt khau c6 ham lugng eong nghd trung binh vd eao.
2. Bdn chit cua nhap sieu cua Viet Nam 2.], Nh^p sieu hdng hda trung gian chiem
^ trpng ldn
Nh6m hdng nhgp sieu ldn nhat Id mdy mdc, phuong tipn vdn tdi va phu tiing. Nhom hdng ndy nhdp sidu ndm 2006 Id 6,611 ty USD, ndm 2007 Id 12,258 t^ USD, ndm 2008 Id 15,056 ty USD va ndm 2009 Id 14,509 ty USD^ Didu nay CO the dugc l^ gidi bdi trinh dp sdn xuit cdng nghiep ciia Vipt Nam cdn thip, cin nhap khiu thidt bi de tiep can cdng nghd tidn tidn, gidi
quyet su thidu hyt phu tung vd mdy moc thilt bj phyc vy cho qud trinh cong nghidp hoa. Nhom hdng nhgp sidu dimg thu hai Id nhihig mat hdng chd bidn phdn theo nguyen lieu. Nhdp sieu dii vdi nhom hdng che bidn phdn theo nguyen lieu ndm 2006 Id 9,237 ly USD, ndm 2007 Id 13,086 ly USD, ndm 2008 Id 13,71 ty USD vd ndm 2009 id 12,55 ly USD^ Nhu vdy Id Viet Nam xudt sieu cdc mdt hdng tho vd so chd, vd nhdp sidu cac mat hdng chd biln sau. Co cdu mat hang xull khau vd nhdp khdu nhu vay kha ddng lo nggi. Ndu co cau hang xuit khdu khong co su chuydn dich manh me td cac mdt hang so chd tai nguyen thidn nhidn, thdm dung lao dpng, eo gid tri gia tang thap sang mat hdng che tao cong nghd tnmg binh va cao, co gid tri gia tang cao, Cling nhu khong co sy didu chinh co ban trong CO cdu hdng nhdp khau, vd hdng hoa trung gian nhdp khau khong dugc chuyen mgnh thdnh nang luc san xudt tang them cho xudt khdu vd ndn kinh tl, thi thdm hyt can can thuong mai vd van de nhdp sidu cua Vidt Nam vdn khong the gidi quyet dugc, vd su on dinh kinh te vT mo eua Viet Nam van bap benh trudc nhihig cd sdc do su thay dii thdt thudng cua gid the gidi.
Ddng chu y la tie dp tdng cao ve nhdp sidu cua nhom hdng do uong, thuoc Id, cdc mat hang tieu dung, dac bidt la cdc mat hdng xa xi lai co tic dp nhgp sidu tang cao hon so vdi cdc mat hang dimg Idm nguydn lieu vd mdy moc thidt bi.
Nhdp sidu nhom hdng dl uong vd thudc Id ndm 2006 Id 1,5 tridu USD, ndm 2008 Id 78,6 hidu USD, vd din nam 2009 Id 103,8 tripu USD'^
Nhap sidu di tieu dimg Id dang nhdp sidu tidu eye, se dl lgi nhdng he qud khong tit eho thdi ky sau, nhdt Id ddi vdi quic gia vira gia nhdp nhom cdc qudc gia ed mdc thu nhgp trung bmh thip nhu
' BO CSng Thucmg (2012a).
HoJngDilc Than (2012).
Nhir tren.
'"Nhu tren.
NhOng vin di KINH T^ vA CHfNH TRj THt Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
vo Hiing Cu'dng Vin a l nhdp sidu ciia Vi^t Nam..
Viet Nam vdi nen sdn xuit nhd vd miie thu nhdp trung binh eua ngudi ddn cdn thap.
D I hgn chl nhdp khau, tir ndm 2009 Vii;l Nam da dp dyng nhilu bipn phdp, trong dd cd bien phdp phdn ehia hdng nhgp khiu theo 3 nhdm (nhdm cin nhgp khiu, nhom can kiem sodt nhgp khiu, nhdm han chl nhgp khiu) dc kiem sodt vipc lilp can ngogi 1$. Ndm 2010 vd 2011, gid tri nhdp khiu ciia nhom hdng cin nhap khiu chilm mpt ty trpng ddng kl trong ting kim ngach nhgp khiu. Ndm 2011 gid trj nhgp l<hau ciia nhdm hdng ndy chilm ly trong 80% ting kim nggch nhdp khiu, tdng 23,4%"- Nhdm hdng ndy chu ylu de phuc vy sdn xuit hdng xuit khiu vd lieu dimg trong nude, phyc vy cho dau tu xdy dyng edc cdng trinh vd dy dn.
2.2. Nhgp siiu tdp trung a khu virc kinh te trong ntr&c
Mdc dil kim ngach nhgp khdu eiia khu vyc cd vin diu tu nude ngodi chilm ty trpng ldn vd ty trpng ndy cd xu hudng tdng ttong tong kim ngach nhgp khdu eiia cd nude, ehu yeu nhdp khiu mdy mdc, thill bi vd hdng hda trung gian de phyc vu sdn xudl eho myc dieh xuat khdu, nhung khu vyc ndy cd kim nggch xuat khau ludn cao hon kim ngach nhdp khdu (xem Bdng 1), vi vdy, nhdp sieu cua Vipt Nam tap trung d khu vuc kinh Id ttong nude. Mdc dd ty Ip nhgp sieu/xual khdu cila khu vyc kinh te trong nude ed xu hudng suy giam kha mgnh, tir 97,5% ndm 2007 xuIng 44,5% ndm 2010 vd 38,5% ndm 2011, nhung vin cdn d mirc t^l cao so vdi ty Ip nhdp sidu/xuat khau chung cua cd nude (d mijrc 10,16% ndm 2011) (xem Hinh 2). Bilu ndy phdn anh chinh xac ban chdt cua sdn xuil trong nude ehd ylu Id gia cdng xudl khau va phy thupc nhieu vao nguyen vat lidu nhdp khiu tir nude ngodi. Neu thi Irudng ttong nude khdng din
eung cip dupe edc hdng hda Irung gian Id dau vdo cho san xuil phyc vy xuat khau vd cde doanh nghipp khu vyc kinh tl trong nude khdng cdi thipn dupe ca cau hdng xuit khiu vdi vide gia tdng hdng xuit khiu ed hdm lupmg cdng ngh|
trung binh vd eao thi khdng thl gidi quylt dupe miu chit cdn nguydn ciia vin dl nhgp sieu eiia Vipt Nam.
2.3. Nh^p siiu chi yiu tu Trung QuSc So sdnh si li|u nhdp sidu tir Trung QuIe d bdng 3 vdi si lipu nhap sidu cua cd nude d bdng 1, cd thl thiy ngay ring Vipt Nam nhdp sidu lir Trung QuIe Id ehu ylu, vd biic tranh ndy ngdy cdng trd nen dm dgm han. Giai dogn 2006 - 2009 nhgp sieu tir Trung Quic van thip hon miic nhgp sieu ciia cd nude, ndm 2006 nhap sieu tir Trung Quoc bang 81,9% nhgp sidu eiia ca nude, nam 2007 ty Ip nay giam xuIng 63,8% vd tdng trd lai len 79,3% vdo ndm 2009 do ehinh sdch md rpng cira vl quan hp thucmg mgi vdi thi trudng the gidi theo cde cam kit WTO vd FTA ndn xuit hien nhilu thj Irudng nhgp khiu mdi vd Idn sdng hang hda nhgp khiu tir ede thj trudng eu tdng.
Nhung din ndm 2010 nhgp sieu tir Trung QuIe dd vupt miic nh$p sieu ciia cd nude (bang 129%) vd din ndm 2011 dd bdng 140%
muc nhgp sieu eua cd nude. Bdng 2 cho thay, nhgp sidu tir Trung Quoc lien tyc gia tdng, tir 4.149 tripu USD ndm 2006, tdng vpt Idn 9.064 tripu USD ndm 2007, din ndm 2010 nang ldn miic bdo dpng 12.710 tripu USD vd tilp lyc tdng mgnh len 13.828 tripu USD ndm 2011. Chi 8 thdng diu ndm 2012 nhdp sidu tit Trung Quic dd ldn tdi 9,9 ty USD, trong khi nhgp sidu cd nude chi d mirc 62 tripu USD'^
Dd Id chua ke din lupmg hdng hda Idn rat khd kiem sodt dupe nhdp qua eon dudng lieu ngaeh hodc budn lau.
" B? C6ng Thuong (2012b) v i BO C6ng Thirang (2011). " B? C6ng Thuong (2012a).
-NhOng vin di KINH Tfi VA C H I N H TR| THfi Gidl S6 9(197) 2012
vin d l nhdp sidu eua Vidt Nam.. Vu Hung Cudng Nhu vgy, cd thl thiy ring quan he thucmg
mai giOa Vipt Nam - Trung QuIe van dien biln theo chilu hudng gia tdng mgnh nhdp siSu tir Trung Quic. Ddy Id vin dl nii epm nhit ttong quan he thuong mgi Vipt Nam - Trung Quic. Dien biln quan hp thuong mai giiia 2 nude thdi gian qua cho thiy sy le thupc qud miic cua ndn kinh tl Viet Nam vdo Trung Quic, gdy bit Ipi dii vdi su on dinh kinh tl, xd hpi vd chinh tri. Trung QuIe cung cip khodng 25% diu vdo eho nen kinh tl, vd vdi chit lupng eiia mdy mdc, thill bi va nguyen vgt lipu tit Trung Quic, da lam dnh hudng rit ldn din khd ndng canh ttanh ciia ede doanh nghipp vd nin kinh tl Viet Nam. Vipc thodt ra khdi sy Id thupc vd ehiu dnh hudng ldn tir mpt thi trudng ldn vd Idng gidng nhu Trung QuIe la nhidm vy hit siic khd khdn nhung Id yeu cdu cip thill de Viet Nam ed thl gidm thilu bit Irdc, riii ro tir su Id thude qud nhilu vdo mdt nin kinh tl hit siic khd dodn dinh, nang cao ndng luc egnh ttanh vd thye hien ldi ciu tnic nin kinh tl, tir do timg bude edi thidn edn edn thuong mgi.
3. Nguyen nhan nh^p sieu cua Vipt Nam Tir thue trang vd bdn chit nhap sieu ciia Vidt Nam nhu phdn tich d trdn, ed thl nit ra mdt si nguydn nhan ehinh nhgp sidu eua Vidt Nam nhu sau:
Thi nhdt, mo hinh tdng truang kinh ti dua nhiiu vdo xudt khdu
Giai doan 2001 - 2010, xuit khiu Id ylu tl ddng gdp ty ttpng Idn nhit vdo tdng trudng kinh tl, ben cgnh eac ylu t l khde Id tidu dimg, diu lu vd nhdp khiu". Myc lidu duy tri lie dd tdng tnrdng kinh tl cao hdng ndm ddi hdi phdi dgt ting kim nggch xuil khiu eao bdng mpi gid.
" U Danh VTnh vi H6 Trung Thanti.
Chinh vl vdy chinh sdch xuit khiu giai dogn vira qua qud chii trpng ddn chi lieu vl sd lupng, chua thye sy quan tam ddn chit luong va hieu qud. Trong dilu kidn trinh dd sdn xuit eiia ndn kinh ll cdn thip, luc lupng lao dpng ddng vd ehi phi thdp nhung cung thap ve trinh dp chuyen mdn kJ thuat, dl nhanh dgt dupe ehi lieu vl ling kim ngach xuit khdu cao chi cdn edeh tdp trung vdo khai thdc Ipi thl tdi nguyen thidn nhien vd nguon lao dpng chi phi re, dieu ndy khien gid tri gia tdng vd ndng luc canh tranh cua hdng hda xuil khiu Viet Nam thip.
Thii hai, xudt khdu phu thugc rdt l&n vdo nhdp khdu
Ciing chinh vi qud chii trpng vdo xuat khdu md cdc doanh nghiep Viet Nam da bd quen thi trudng ttong nude, ngdnh cdng nghiep phu ttp ehua dupe chii ttpng phdt trien diing mue, khidn nhilu nguyen vat lieu Id ddu vdo cho sdn xudl van phdi nhdp khiu dl phyc vu cho sdn xuat de xuit khiu, mdc dii cac nguydn vat lieu ndy hodn todn ed thl san xuil ttong nude. Dilu ndy khien eho nhiSng no lye thiic diy xuit khiu ddu keo theo sy gia ldng nhu eiu nhdp khiu, ddc biet Id mdy rndc, thill bi, phu timg vd nguyen vat lieu id hdng hda trung gian eho hogl ddng gia cdng xuil khiu. Dilu do cd nghia Id muln ldng kim nggch xuit khiu Ihi gin nhu ddng nghia vdi nguy eo nhgp sidu ldng.
Thil ba, ca chi chinh sdch qudn ly, diiu hdnh xudt nhdp khdu hdng hoa con nhieu bat cap, yiu kem
Viet Nam dang thilu ea ehe, ehinh sdch ddng bd, minh bgch vd dai ban eho qudn ly xuit nhdp khiu. Phuang thiie gidm sdt, qudn I^, didu hdnh xuit nhdp khiu ddi khi edn mang ndng tinh hdnh chinh vd phi thi trudng. Mpt si bidn phdp ching nhgp sidu ehi ed Unh ehil ling phd, ngdn hgn vd
mtmg vin Si KINH T t VA CHlNH TRj THS GltS'l S6 9(197) 2012 -
Vu Hiing Cydng v i n ad nhdp sidu ciia Vidt Nam,.
tac dung rit ban ehi irong mpi so nhdm hdng chilm ty ttpng khdng ldn trong kim nggch nhdp kliiu. Dilu tilt quan he giiia xuit khiu vd nhgp khiu thye hipn khdng til. Chdng hgn, cde ndm trudc Vict Nam thue day xuit khiu than, den nay Vipt Nam bdt dau phai nhgp khiu than; Vict Nam xuit khiu eao su nhung Igi phdi nhdp sdm lip; xuat khiu dpi may nhung phdi nhgp khau hiu hit nguyen, phy lieu, xuit khiu luong thyc, thyc phim nhung nhgp thirc dn chan nudi...
Chinh sdch ciia Nhd nude dl hgn chl nii ro tir biln dpng thj Irudng thl gidi chua dupe thue hicn mpt each lien tyc vd kjp thdi. Chinh phu cdn hi ddng trong dicu hdnh xuit khiu, chdng han trong trudng hpp bien ddng gid hdng xuat khiu Id gao vd cd phe ndm 2008'^ Vipt Nam chua ed chinh sdch khai Ihde mpt edeh hipu qud Ipi the cgnh tranh xuat khdu dya tren cdng nghd, ttinh dp lao dpng, qudn 1^... de tgo ra cdc nhdm hdng xudt khau cd kha nang egnh tranh eao.
Viet Nam van nhdp khau nhieu cdng nghp trung gian va hang lieu dimg xa xi, ma chua ed bipn phdp ddi han dd kiem ehe nhgp sieu. vd nhdp khdu cgnh tranh chua dupe khuyin khich ddng miic. Qudn ly nhgp khiu ehua ill, nhit Id hang hda lir Trung Quoc, lam nay sinh hi^n tupng gian lan thuong mai, gdp phin ldm tang nguy CO d nhiem va suy thodi mdi trudng, de dpa an lodn vp sinh thye phim vd sire khde con ngudi.
Thii tu, thiiu chien luge xudt nhgp khdu bin vang ddi v&i m&t sd thi truang l&n, d(ic biet Id ddi vol thi truang Trung Qudc
Thye hi^n chiln lupc md ciia vd diy mgnh hpi nhap kinh ll quic td, Vipt Nam dd md rpng thj trudng xuil nhgp khiu vdi nhilu quIe gia vd khu vuc. Tuy nhien, ehiln lupc dgt chi tidu kim nggch xuil khiu cao vd nhanh dl gdp phin cdn doi VI md nen Vi^t Nam vin mdi dimg d "xuit
" Hoing Dilc Thin (2012). .
" L6 Danh Vinh vi H6 Trang Thanh.
khiu thir hang hda Vipt Nam san xuil ra dupe"
chir chua thue sy xuit khiu thep nhu ciu va ddng cip hang hda ede quoc gia phat tridn muon nhdp hang hda cua Vipt Nam. Vipc thilu lya chpn va da dang hda thi Irudng xuit khiu chiln lupc khiln hdng hda xuil khiu ciia Vipt Nam qud phy thudc vdo mpt so thi trudng truyin thong, khiln dl roi vao nii ro nlu ed biln d$ng vc nhu ciu nhgp khiu hodc hdng rdo ky thuat tir quIe gig nhdp khiu. Ben cgnh dd, do chju dnh hudng eiia thj trudng nhgp khiu "de linh" vd ldn Id Trung Quic ndn hdng hda xuit khdu ciia Vipt Nam de sa vdo bay sdn xuit hdng hda cd hdm lupng cdng ngh? thip, khdng phdi chju nhihig kilm sodt khil khe vl mau ma va chit lupng. Do vgy, mpt khi thj trudng Tnmg Quic ddng eua hodc gdy khd khdn nhgp khdu loai hdng hda nao dd sd khien sdn xuit trong nude lao dao, bl tie bdi khd tim duprc thj trudng nhgp khau thay thl chip nhgn cimg mirc dp lidu chuin hdng hda nhu vgy. H0 qua Id, hdng hda xuat khau ctia Vipt Nam phy thupc lat Idn vdo thj Irudng Trung Qudc, dan din hipn lupng bi cdc doanh nghidp Trung Quoe ehen dp vl gid vd lupng hdng tidu thy. Chdng hgn, cdc mdi hdng hdi sdn, dua hiu, cao su khi xuit sang Trung QuIe thudng gdp phdi Unh trang bi dp gid, thdi hgn giao hdng". Dilu ndy khdng nhiing gay khd khdn eho nhd sdn xuil ttong nude (bao gdm ed dognh nghiip vd ngudi ndng dan) md cdn gdy ra nhihig bit on dii vdi thi ttudng ttong nude vd xd hpi.
Cd nhieu bipn phdp doanh nghipp cd thl dp dyng de ndng cao khd ndng cgnh tranh ciia san phim hang hda, ehdng hgn bing chit luang eao, bing ham lupmg cdng nghp cao, hodc ehiing loai, mlu mS khdc bidt, bode gid rd...
"Nguyin Dinh Li6m (2012).
-N/lO-ng vin di KINH Jt VA CHlNH TRj THE Gl6f| S6 9(197) 2012
V^n d l nhjip sieu cua Vipt Nam... Vu Hung Cydng Tuy nhidn, da phan cac doanh nghipp Vidt
Nam dd chpn gia rd Id ydu t l tao ndn khd ndng cgnh tranh cua hdng hda.
Xudt khiu cua Vi^t Nam qud phy thupe vdo nhap khdu, dieu ndy ding nghia vdi vipc cdc doanh nghidp Viet Nam phdi Um dupe nguon mdy m6c, thilt bj vd ngudn hdng h6a trung gian gia re ldm nguydn vdt lipu dau vdo cho sdn xuat phuc vu xuit khau. Thi trudng Trung Quoc dd danh hdng tdm ly ndy cua cdc doanh nghidp Vi?t Nam bdng vi§e xuit sang thi trudng Vi$t Nam cong nghd thip, nguyen vdt li^u gid rd nhung chit Iugng khong cao. Vdi diu vdo chat lupng khdng cao vd mdy m6c, cong nghd thip til Trung Quoc, hdng hda xuit khdu cua Viet Nam kh6 cd the tiep edn dupe cdc thi trudng ahSp khdu "kho tinh" cda edc nude phdt tridn.
Ddng thdi, cdng do doanh nghidp Viet Nam bo quen thi trudng trong nude trong thdi gian khd ddi do qud chu trpng den thi tnrdng xuat khau nen tao ca hpi eho Idn song hdng tidu dung gid re va chat lupmg khdng eao td Trung Qudc trdn vdo Viet Nam, nhat Id khu vyc thi trudng rpng 16n d nong thon. Day Id mdt trong nhdng nguydn nhan ca ban gay ra tinh trgng nhdp sidu cua Viet Nam trong quan h? thuomg mgi vdi Tnmg Quic.
Nhu vgy, Viet Nam dang xuit sidu sang cdc quic gia phdt tridn nhu MJ vd EU, trong khi lai nhj^ sieu td mOt si quic gia dang phdt triln trong APEC, ASEAN, Trung QuIe vd Dai Loan.
Neu khong cd thay dii cdn bdn vd ca cau hdng hoa xuit nhgp khiu vd thj tnidng xuit nhap khau thi con dudng edi thipn tinh trgng nhdp sidu eua Vidt Nam khd cd Idi thoat.
Thic ndm, thieu chiin luge ddi hgn vd ca che
^ieu hdnh linh hogt ddi v&i ty gid hdi dodi.
Chinh sach ty gid hoi doai Id cong cu hit sue ddc lyc vd hidu qud nhdm tdc dpng din khd ndng egnh tranh bang hoa xuit khdu vd nhap khdu cua quic gia, c6 the su dung cong eu nay dl khuyin khieh xudt khiu hdng hoa cung nhu han che nhdp khiu ma khong vi pham ddn cac cam kit eua WTO vd FTA. Tuy nhien, chinh sach ty gid hoi dodi ciia Viet Nam chua dugc dieu hdnh linh boat. Td nhilu ndm qua, chi s6 Igm phat ciia Viet Nam d mdc cao ban khu vyc vd thl gidi, nhung Viet Nam van duy tri chinh sdch ty gid hoi dodi khd cdng nhdc vd giu tiln dong d mdc tri gid cao, dong nghia vdi vide khuyen khieh nhdp khdu vd vi vgy ldm gia tdng nhdp sidu.
Thu sdu. ndng luc sdn xudl vd cgnh tranh cua sdnpham, doanh nghiep vd qudc gia cdn thdp.
Do hdng hoa xudt khdu cua Viet Nam chu yeu dya tren khai thdc lgi the ve tdi nguyen thien nhien vd lao dpng chi phi re nen hoat dpng xudt khdu eua Viet Nam dd bi ton thuang trong boi cdnh thi tnrdng the gidi co nhieu bidn dpng.
Didu nay the hien ro net trong giai doan ehiu dnh hudng cua suy thodi kinh td toan cau 2009- 2010, cdc doanh nghidp dong nude kho tim kidm vd md rpng thi trudng xudt khau, dong thai do dnh hudng cua suy gidm nhu cau cua thd gidi vd gid thl gjdi, khiln kim nggch xuit khdu cua khu vuc kinh tl trong nude co xu hudng sut gidm nam 2012. Khd ndng cai tien mdu md hang hda chgm, hdm lugng cong nghe thdp, khiln eho ndng lye cgnh tranh cua sdn pham, doanh nghiep vd quoc gia ddu thdp.
4. Mdt so gidi phap co ban nham cai thien tinh tr^ng nh^p sieu cua Viet Nam
M0t Id, diy nhanh tiln do thue hien tdi ciu true nin kinh tl, chuyin dii tu mo hinh tdng
W/JOng vin di KINH Tfi VA CHINH TRj THfi Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
Vu Hung Cu'dng vdn J^ nhdp sidu cua Vigt Nam...
trudng xuat khau theo chilu rpng, chii ylu dya vdo cdc ylu to von, khai thdc tdi nguydn thidn nhidn vd nguon nhdn lye chi phi re, chit lugng thdp sang mo hinh tdng trudng xuat khau theo chieu sdu, dya vdo cdc nhdn ll nang suit ting hop nhu khoa hpc cong nghp, nguon nhdn lyc chat lugng cao, kS ndng qudn ly hi^n dai, dya trdn khai thdc cac lgi thl so sdnh dOng. Chuyin djch CO cau hdng h6a xuit khiu theo hudng diy manh xudt khau cdc mat hdng c6 hdm lugng cong nghp trung binh vd cao, co gid tri gia tdng cao, CO kim nggch ldn vd cd khd ndng tdng trudng cao. Cln chii trpng dung mdc vd xdy dyng he chinh sdch khuyin khich xuit khiu chuydn bipt dii vdi timg nh6m hdng xuat khau muc tieu, d6 id: nh6m hdng cd ddng g6p quan trpng cho viec thyc hidn kc hogch xuit khiu vd gidi quylt nhilu vide ldm nhu dpt may, giay ddp, do go, linh kidn didn td, sdn phdm nhya, day cap dien;... nhdm hang xuat khau mdi nhu sdn phlm eo khi, thyc pham che bidn, hod pham tieu dimg;... nhom hdng xuat khiu cd hdm lugng cong nghe eao nhu cdc sdn phlm phan mdm, hdng didn td va tin hpc. Chu trpng doi mdi cong nghd, thidt bi, edi tidn mau md, kilu dang sdn phdm theo hudng da dang h6a dd ddp dng mpi nhu cdu vd tieu chuan khdc nhau ciia ede thi trudng nhap khdu.
Hai Id, tap trung phdt trien ngdnh cdng nghidp h5 trg trong m^t so ITnh vyc lya chpn de timg budc thay the hdng hda trung gian vd nguyen vgt lieu nhgp khau, Idm thay dii cdn bdn ca cdu hdng h6a nhgp khiu. Cd chfnh sdch khuyen khich doanh nghipp tap trung vdo thj trudng trong nude, diy mgnh sdn xuat nguydn vdt lidu vd hdng tidu dung c6 chat lupmg nhdm hgn chd nhap khiu hdng hoa trung gian Id diu vao cho sdn xuit vd hdng tieu diuig, qua dd gdp phan Idm gidm nhgp sidu.
Ba Id. tilp tyc dii mdi, hodn thipn hp thing ca chl chfnh sdch qudn ly, didu hdnh xuat nh$p khau hdng h6a phu hgp vdi quy dinh vd thdng Ip quoc tl, ddm bdo tinh ddng bp, ddi han vd de dy dodn. Xay dung cdc hp tidu chuan chat lupmg hdng h6a, vp sinh an todn thyc phlm vd sue khde con ngudi, bdo vp mdi trudng, cdc bipn phdp phi thue quan, ty vp, dp thul chong ban phd gid,... nhu nhdng hdng rdo ky thuat nhdm han chl ldn s6ng nhap khiu mdy mdc, thiet bi, hdng hda dau vdo cho sdn xudt tuy gid re nhung cd hdm lugng cdng ngh$ thip vd chit lugng khdng cao, tiem dn nguy hgi cho sue khoe con ngudi vd mdi trudng.
Bon Id, nang eao hipu qud cdng tdc xuc tien thuang mgi vdo cdc thi trudng chu lyc nhu chau A (Nhdt Ban, ASEAN, Tmng Quoc, Hdn Qudc, Ddi Loan, Hong Kong), chau Au (chu ylu Id EU), Bdc My (My, Canada), thi trudng truydn thong nhu Nga vd cdc nude Ddng Au, dong thdi chu dgng tim kiem vd md rpng thi trudng mdi, dii tdc mdi nhu khu vyc Trung Ddng, My La tinh, chau Phi. T ^ dyng cdc lgi the td cdc hiep dinh FTA, cam kit WTO, nhat Id dii vdi cdc thi trudng xuit nhgp khau chien luge cua Vipt Nam, gdn thj tnrdng xudt khdu vdi thi trudng nhdp khau hipn dang d muc nhgp sieu ldn dd thue diy xuit khdu sang chinh thi trudng ndy, timg budc gidm nhgp sidu cua Vipt Nam vdi ti&ig thi trudng dd qua dd gidm mdc n h ^ sieu eiia ed nude.
Doi vdi van de nhap sidu td Trung Qudc, Chinh phu Vipt Nam vd Trung Qudc cdn co sy bdn bgc cy thl vd dua ra quylt dinh d clp lanh dgo eao nhit cua hai nude, luat hda moi quan he thuang mgi song phuong nhdm gidi quylt vin de mat edn ddi cdn cdn thuong mai giita hai nude, c l n chd ddng xdy dyng chiln luge xuit nhdp khau hang hda rieng d6i vdi thi trudng -NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHlNH TR| TH^ Gidl S6 9(197) 2012
vin d l nhdp sieu cua Vi$t Nam.., VQ Hung Cu^ng Trung Qudc, tgp tnmg vdo xdy dyng cdc hdng
rao kj? thugt ddi vdi hdng nhgp khiu cdng nghp thdp va chit lugng khdng cao; khuyen khich ddu tu FDI eua Trung Quic vdo Vi^t Nam doi vcfi nhiing mdt hdng c6ng nghidp chl bien Trung Quoc c6 nhu ciu nh§p khiu cao; ndm chdc tinh hinh biln dOng ve chfnh sdch vd thj truang cua Trung Quoc de dng ph6 vd dieu hanh linh hogt hogt dOng xuit nhdp khiu cda Vipt Nam ddi vdi Trung Quic; timg budc ndng cao ndng lye cgnh tranh ciia hdng hda trong niroc khong dya trdn ylu to gid rd; tdng cudng hoat dpng truyin thdng lidn quan din boat dpng xudt nhgp khau gida 2 nude... Ndng cao ndng l\ic thlm dinh, ddnh gid dy dn diu thau dl trdnh tinh trang bo gid thip nhdm dgt dugc hgp ddng nhu Trung Quoc lidn tyc tning thau edc cdng trinh vd dy dn ldn theo hinh thdc chia khda trao tay (EPC) may ndm gan ddy (nhd thdu Trung Quic cung clp dpn gdi td thiet ke, mua sdm thiet hi, xdy dung; chu ddu tu trong nude van hanh vd sd dung), khidn nhdp khau mdy moc, thiet hi tu Trung Qudc tdng cao, gay dp lyc Idn len nhdp sidu tu Trung Qudc va ciia cd nude.
Nam Id, tiep tuc duy tri chinh sach dieu hdnh ty gid hdi doai linh hogt theo tin hidu vd qui ludt thi trudng, ddng thdi timg budc hudng tdi dieu chinh vd su dung chfnh sdch tS/ gid hdi dodi nhu mot cdng cu khuyin khich xuit khiu vd hgn che
nhap khiu. Hgn chl tii da su dung cac cdng ey quan ly vd dieu hdnh ty gid theo kilu hdnh chinh, phi thj trudng.
Sdu Id, ndng eao ndng lyc egnh tranh ciia sdn pham, doanh nghipp trong nude va quic gia.
Tdp trung xdy dyng mOt si thuang hidu hdng hoa mgnh, ddng ky bdn quyln vd nhdn hieu tren thj trudng quic tl. Cd chinh sdch khuydn khich dau tu ndng eao chat Iugng hdng hoa thdng qua ndng cao hdm lugng cdng nghe trong sdn phlm, tgo sy khde bidt ve chung logi, mau md theo hudng da dgng hoa dd ddp ung nhu cau nhilu logi thi trudng nhdp khiu, td khd tinh den de tinh. Xdy dyng vd tridn khai dong bd edc chfnh sdch khuyen khfch su phdt tridn ciia cdc doanh nghidp nhd vd vua trong nude hogt dpng trong mpt sd ITnh vuc lya chpn cua ngdnh cdng nghipp ho trg de sdn xudt ra hang hda trung gian dau vdo thay the cho nhdp khiu, mpt si ITnh vye chuydn mdn hda sdu trong ehudi gid tri khu vyc vd thl gidi, khuyen khieh tang tfnh lien kit giO'a cdc doanh nghidp trong nude cung nhu giita doanh nghidp trong nude vdi cdc tap dodn da qudc gia. Chu trpng va cd ede chinh saeh, chuong trinh hudng tdi phdt triln bin vGng thi trudng trong nude, td chdc lai h? thing phan phdi hdng hda vd bdn le trong nude, ddc bi^t ehd y tdi thi trudng rdng Idn d ndng thdn*
Tdi li^u tham khdo:
1. Bd Cdng Thuong (2012a): Bdo cdo tdm ldi linh hinh hogl d$ng ngdnh cdng nghiep vd thuang mgi thdng 8vd8 thdng ndm 2012, 29/8, www.moit.gov.vn.
2. Bd Cdng Thuang (2012b): Bdo cdo tdm tdt ldng kit linh hinh thi^c hi$n nhiim vu nam 2011, ki hogch ndm 2012 vd mgt sSdinh hu&ng chu yiu ki hogch 5 ndm 2011 - 2015 cua ngdnh Cdng thuang, thdng 1, www.moit.gov.vn.
WhOng vin di KINH Tfi VA CHiNH TR! THfi Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
VD Hung Cudng V i n d l nhjp sidu cua Vidt Nam...
3. Bp Cdng Thuong (2011): lido cdo ldm tdt tinh hinh Ihuc hien nhiem vu ki hogch ndm 2010 vo ki Imach ndm 2011 cua ngdnh Cong Thuang, thdng 1, www.moil.gov.vn.
4 niii Trudng Giang vd Pham ,Sy An (2011): Nhdp siiu ndm 2011, triin vgng ndm 2012. vd nim phdp cho giai dogn 2011 - 2015, chuyin trgng tdm chinh sdch thuang mgi tir Jicu hdnh ngdn hgn din chiin luge thuang mgi cho trung vd ddi hgn, Tham lugn tai I loi thao Kinh le I'iel Nam ndm 2011, trien vgng ndm 2012 vd cdc gidi phdp Ihuc Men Ki hoach phdt Irien kinh li - xd hgi 5 ndm 2011 - 2015, do Uy ban Kinh le cua Qudc hpi vd Vipn Khoa hpc xd hpi Vipt Nam dong t l chire thdng 9 lai Thdnh pho Hd Chi Minh.
5. Doan Duy Khuang (2012): Ndng luc Hep cdn thj truang ciia cdc doanh nghiep Viet Nam sau khi gia nhgp WTO, Tham luan tai hpi thdo Tong kit 5 ndm Viet Nam gia nhgp WTO do Vien Khoa hpc xd hpi Vipt Nam ll chire 9 tai I la Npi.
6. Nguyen Dinh l.iem (2012): Quan he thuang mgi Viet - Trung vd vdn de nhdp sieu cua
\iiji Nam tir Trung Qudc, Tgp chi Nghien ciru Trung Quoc, sd thdng 10/2012.
7. Hodng Dire Thdn (2012): Chinh sdch thuang mai vd vdn di nhgp siiu ciia Viil Nam, Tham luan tgi Dien ddn Kinh tl Miia thu 2012 Kinh ti Viet Nam 2012, Trien vong 2013:
Doi m&i phdn edp Irong cdi cdch the chi, do Uy ban Kinh Id ciia Qudc hpi, Vidn Khoa hpc xa hdi Viet Nam va Phdng Thuang mai vd Cdng nghiep Vipt Nam dong td chuc thdng 9 tgi Thdnh phd Vdng Tdu.
8. Le Danh VTnh vd Hd Trung Thanh: Quan diim vd dinh hu&ng phdt trien xudt nhdp khdu nhdm phdt Irien bin virng & Viet Nam thai hi- 2011 - 2020, blip://, www.moil.gov.vn.
9. Website ciia Ting cue Thong ke (www.gso.gov.vn) vd Bd Cdng Thuong (www.moil.gov.vn).
-Nhiing vin di KINH T t VA CHlNH TR| THE Gl<3fl S6 9(197) 2012
vin dl nhdp sidu cua Vidt Nam.. VO Hung Cu^ng Phu Igc:
Hinh I: Kim ngach xuat, nhgp khau hdng hda vd nhgp sieu ciia Vift Nam giai doan 2006 - 2012
(Dan vi: tripu USD)
» W » m 20H 2011 »I2
Nguon: Tong cue Thong ke va linh lodn cua Idc gid
Hinh 2: Ty if nhap sieu/xuat idiau eua Vipt Nam giai doan 2006 - 2012 (Dan vi: %)
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100 - 80 / \ 60 X ,
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Hinh 3: Toe dp tdng trirdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau chia theo khu vu-c kinh te sd hihi cua Vi^t Nam giai doan 2007 - 2012
(Danvi:%)
Hinh 4: ty le nhap sieu/xult khau dii vdi mpt so thi trirdng nhap sidu chinh cua Viet Nam giai doan 2006 - 2011 (Dan vi: %)
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