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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
TKIM’s distribution network
Source: Company, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Desember 21, 2017
[MIRAExplore] Sinar Mas’ pulp and paper world Sinar Mas Group’s pulp and paper business model
Salah satu model bisnis Sinar Mas Grup adalah pulp dan paper, yang dikenal sebagai 'Asia Pulp & Paper' (APP), nama merek perusahaan bubur kertas dan kertas Sinar Mas yang terintegrasi penuh. APP termasuk Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM/Not rated) dan Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP/Not rated), yang keduanya bergerak dalam pembuatan produk kertas dan kemasan. TKIM dan INKP memperoleh momentum kenaikan positif baru-baru ini karena kinerja positif mereka yang menarik minat investor.
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM/Not rated) at a glance
TKIM didirikan pada tahun 1972 dan telah terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) sejak tahun 1990. Awalnya hanya memproduksi soda dan bahan kimia lainnya, perusahaan ini mulai memproduksi produk kertas pada 1978 dengan kapasitas produksi 12.000 ton per tahun. Saat ini, lini bisnisnya terdiri dari: 1) divisi kertas yang memproduksi, antara lain kertas lapis, kertas tidak berlapis dan kertas khusus; 2) produk kertas yang ditambah nilainya seperti alat tulis & kantor, kertas kado &
kemasan, tas belanja, dan produk printing; 3) kotak karton yang memproduksi kotak karton yang disesuaikan, seperti corrugated carton U, corrugated C; 4) divisi bahan kimia yang memproduksi, antara lain, caustic soda liquid (NaOH), Liquid chlorine (Cl2), Hydrochloride acid (HCl), Sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl), dan Calcium hypochlorite (Ca(OCl)2). Pabrik perusahaan berlokasi di Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur.
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP/Not rated) at a glance
INKP didirikan sebagai joint venture dengan Sinar Mas Group pada tahun 1976 dan telah terdaftar di BEI sejak tahun 1990. Beroperasi di industri bubur kertas dan kertas, bisnisnya terdiri dari dua segmen: 1) kertas dan pulp yang memproduksi kertas dan pulp generik; dan 2) kemasan yang memproduksi linerboard, corrugating medium, corrugated shipping containers, dan boxboards, serta produk sampingan kimia. Fasilitas produksi saat ini berlokasi di Provinsi Perawang-Riau, Serang dan Tangerang-Banten.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 6,109.5 -0.9 2.3 20.7
MSCI Indonesia 27.1 -0.9 0.5 17.6
MSCI EM 1,132.8 0.1 -1.6 33.0
HANG SENG 29,234.1 -0.1 -1.9 34.1
KOSPI 2,472.4 -0.6 -2.3 21.3
FTSE 7,525.2 -0.3 1.8 7.1
DJIA 24,726.7 -0.1 4.9 24.1
NASDAQ 6,961.0 0.0 1.5 27.3
Valuation
2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.7 2.4 17.8
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.25 0 0 -100
3yr 5.88 -3 -24 -168
10yr 6.48 -1 -14 -139
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,579.00 0.0 0.3 1.0
USD/KRW 1,080.90 -0.4 -1.4 -9.5
USD/JPY 113.40 0.5 0.8 -3.5
USD/CNY 6.58 -0.2 -0.5 -5.0
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 58.1 1.1 2.2 10.8
Gold 1,265.6 0.3 -1.2 11.8
Coal 100.3 0.0 4.2 15.2
Palm Oil 2,450.0 -0.8 -5.5 -22.3
Rubber 119.9 0.0 -0.1 -33.7
Nickel 12,040.0 2.4 3.3 11.2
Copper 6,942.0 0.5 1.7 26.2
Tin 19,475.0 0.6 -0.6 -7.5
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
800 950 1,100 1,250
4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
12/16 03/17 06/17 09/17 12/17
JCI MSCI EM (pt)
(pt)
950 1,100 5,500
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
Local flashes
UNTR: Penjualan alat berat United Tractors bisa naik 60%. PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) optimis penjualan alat berat Komatsu di 2017 mencapai 3.500 unit. Targetnya di 2018 mendatang, penjualan alat berat bisa mencapai 3.800 unit. Sekretaris Perusahaan UNTR Sara K. Loebis bilang, tahun 2017 ini penjualan alat berat Komatsu oleh UNTR bisa mencapai 3.500 unit. Padahal, sepanjang tahun 2016 lalu, UNTR hanya membukukan penjualan Komatsu sebanyak 2.181 unit. Artinya, tahun ini ditargetkan penjualan volume penjualan alat berat UNTR naik 60,47% year on year (yoy).(Kontan)
PJAA: Jelang libur, Jaya Ancol rilis wahana baru. Menjelang liburan natal dan tahun baru, PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA) merilis empat wahana baru. Keempat wahana ini meliputi Dream Playground, Galactica, Colour of Kingdom, dan Time Adventure. Wakil Direktur Rekreasi Taman Impian Jaya Ancol, Agus Sudarno mengatakan, pihaknya mengalokasikan dana senilai Rp 35 miliar untuk pengembangan keempat wahana tersebut. (Kontan)
TOBA: TOBA produksi 5 juta-6 juta ton batubara di 2018. PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk (TOBA) pada tahun depan akan mempertahankan level produksinya di 5 juta-6 juta ton batubara. Peningkatan harga batubara tidak membuat perusahaan gelap mata untuk menggenjot produksi. Yang jelas dengan level produksi yang sama potensi pendapatan perusahaan bisa bertumbuh. Iwan Sanyoto, Head of Investor Relations TOBA menyatakan bahwa pihaknya tetap mempertahankan level produksi. Selain itu, Toba Bara juga terus mencari kesempatan untuk mengakuisisi tambang baru sebagai strategi meningkatkan cadangan, di samping terus melakukan eksplorasi. (Kontan)
PNBN: Bank Panin lunasi obligasi Rp 1 triliun. PT Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk mengumumkan teah melunasi penerbitan obligasi berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I 2012. Obligasi ini pertama kali diterbitkan pada 21 Desember 2012 dengan tingkat bunga tetap. "Obligasi berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I 2012 dengan jumlah pokok Rp 1 triliun telah jatuh tempo 20 Desember 2017," tulis Herwidayatmo dalam keterangan ke BEI, Rabu (20/12). (Kontan)
BMRI: 2018, Bank Mandiri hanya tambah 10-20 cabang. PT Bank Mandiri Tbk mengatakan tahun depan hanya akan menambah sebanyak 10 sampai 20 cabang.
Penambahan cabang tahun depan diproyeksi akan sangat selektif. Ahmad Siddik Badruddin, Direktur Risk Management and Compliance Bank Mandiri bilang pada tahun depan bank akan lebih selektif dalam menambah cabang.(Kontan)
ADHI: Adhi Karya bidik penjualan properti Rp 6,7 T. PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) akan semakin gencar mengembangkan bisnis properti melalui departemen Transit Oriented Development (TOD) & Hotel, serta anak usahanya PT Adhi Persada Properti (APP).
Lewat keduanya, ADHI membidik marketing sales atau pra penjualan sebesar Rp 6,7 triliun. Sekitar Rp 3,3 triliun ditargetkan akan didapatkan dari departemem TOD &
Hotel, dan sebesar Rp 3,4 triliun diharapkan akan didapatkan melalui APP. (Kontan)
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas center line pada uptrend channel.
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend yang relatif valid yang dimulai sejak 182 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.9243 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.78 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 7.57%
atau sekitar 14 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar antara +0.35% / - 0.37 % atau +21.38 point / -22.60 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 20, 2017) 6,109(-0.943%) Trading range 6,088 - 6,141
Average index performance (%) 4.92 Target
Period 182 - Daily 6,141
r-squared 0.9243 - Weekly 6,173
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.35 / -0.37 - Monthly 6,243
Volatility (+/-, point) +21.38 / -22.60 Stop loss 6,083
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 6,143.4 _____ 6,099.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Open: 6,166 High: 6,167 Low: 6,089 Close: 6,109 Vol. 6,008,821,760 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,121.8
R-Squared: 0.9243 Period: 182 Std.Dev : 1.78 Volatility (+) : 0.0035 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 0.96 Chg.: -0.943%
6,157.34
6,109.48 6,083.26 6,083.26 6,044.8 6,009.18
5,956.72 6,209.81
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
^JKSE - Volume = 6,008,821,760.00, EMA(Volume,37) = 6,020,768,768.00
6,008,821,760 6,020,768,768
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas pergerakkan indeks turun masih terlihat namun sementara akan tertahan.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily, potensi kenaikkan mulai terbatas. Indikator MFI optimized,indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic %D optimized akan menguji support trend line. Pada Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal upper band namun rawan koreksi.
Sementara itu pada Figure 3 pada periode weekly ,indikator MFI optimized naik terbatas.
Indikator W%R optimized dan indikator stochastic %D optimized relative flat. Daily resistance di 6,141 dan daily support di 6,088. Cut loss level di 6,083.
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized,RSI optimized , Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 65.86
65.8611
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 64.19
64.1918
^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 75.80, MA = 63.76
75.7983 63.7601
^JKSE - Daily 12/20/2017 Open 6165.6, Hi 6167.43, Lo 6088.56, Close 6109.48 (-0.9%) BBTop(Av erage,37,1.78) = 6,111.42, BBBot(Av erage,37,1.78) = 5,979.26, SMA
6,109.48 6,045.34
_____ 6,143.2 _____ 6,099.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Open: 6,166 High: 6,167 Low: 6,089 Close: 6,109 Chg. -0.9% Vol. 6,008,821,760 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,121.8
R-Squared: 0.9243 Period: 182 Std.: 1.78 Volatility (+) : 0.0035 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 0.95
6,109.48 6,044.8
5,949.01
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
^JKSE - Volume = 6,008,821,760.00, EMA(Volume,37) = 6,020,768,768.00
6,008,821,760 6,020,768,768
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized,W%R optimized , Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG akan bertahan diatas level 6,122
Terlihat pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata koreksi normal selama periode analisis adalah sekitar -0.37%, sementara saat ini di -0.943%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly potensi koreksi normal rata-rata sekitar -0.72%, sementara saat ini koreksi ke level - 0.162% Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas dengan kecenderungan konsolidasi. Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing- masing periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 6,088 – 6,141 Figure 5. Weekly : 6,078 - 6,173 Figure 6. Monthly : 6,012 – 6,243
x x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 95.11 95.1069
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -21.19
-21.1903
^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 68.29, MA = 66.72
68.2925 66.7237
^JKSE - Weekly 12/20/2017 Open 6111.68, Hi 6176.45, Lo 6080.15, Close 6109.48 (-0.2%) BBTop(Av erage,18,1.86) = 6,120.29, BBBot(Av erage,18,1.86) = 5,811.24
6,109.48 5,965.77
_____ 6,181.3 _____ 6,077.7
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open: 6,112 High: 6,176 Low: 6,080 Close: 6,109 Chg. -0.2% Vol. 16,955,350,016 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,122.0
R-Squared: 0.9364 Period: 51 Std.: 1.86 Volatility (+) : 0.0097 Volatility (-) : -0.0072 V-Ratio : 1.34
6,109.48 6,010.21 6,127.21
Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22 Jul Aug 31 Sep Oct Nov 30 Dec
^JKSE - Volume = 16,955,350,016.00, EMA(Volume,20) = 28,412,381,184.00
16,955,350,016 28,412,381,184
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 6,173.1
_____ 6,078.0 6,122.0
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 6,122.0 R-Squared: 0.9364 Period: 51 Std.Dev : 1.86 Volatility (+) : 0.0083 Volatility (-) : -0.0072 V-Ratio : 1.16 Chg.: -0.162%
6,109.48
Nov 30 Dec
^JKSE - Volume = 16,955,350,016.00
16,955,350,016
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 6,243.8
_____ 5,937.2 6,088.5
6,012.7 6,166.2
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 12/20/2017 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 6,088.5 R-Squared: 0.9334 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.84 Volatility (+) : 0.0255 Volatility (-) : -0.0248 V-Ratio : 1.03 Chg.: 2.643%
6,109.48
Jul Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 75,142,135,808.00
75,142,135,808 Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,143.4
_____ 6,099.3
5,931.2 5,973.5
5,958.5
6,121.8
6,087.5
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 6,121.8 R-Squared: 0.9243 Period: 182 Std.Dev : 1.78 Volatility (+) : 0.0035 Volatility (-) : -0.0037 V-Ratio : 0.96 Chg.: -0.943%
6,109.48
11 18
^JKSE - Volume = 6,008,821,760.00
6,008,821,760
Stocks on our focus list
Adaro Energy (ADRO)- Weekly, Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.874) selama 125 minggu terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.53 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 12.63 % (sekitar 16 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +5.2% / -4.01 % atau 93.60 rupiah / -72.18 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 20, 2017) 1,800 (-0.277%) Trading range 1,760 - 1,880 0Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 3.44 Target
β (beta) 0.63 - Daily 1,850
Corelation 0.33 - Weekly 1,880
Period 125 - Monthly 2,000
r-squared 0.874 Stop loss 1,710
Volatility (+/-, %) +5.2/ -4.01
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +93.60/ -72.18
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. Weekly trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,907.6 _____ 1,740.6
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Adaro Energy Tbk [ ADRO.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open: 1,800 High: 1,850 Low: 1,790 Close: 1,800 Vol. 144,775,904 Prev . Av g. Price: 1,813.3
R-Squared: 0.8737 Period: 125 Std.Dev : 1.53 Volatility (+) : 0.0520 Volatility (-) : -0.0401 V-Ratio : 1.30
Chg.: -0.3% 1,800
1,792.96 1,776.21 1,708.61 2,064.2 2,064.2 2,352.19 2,419.79
Jul Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct
ADRO.JK - Volume = 144,775,904.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 163,689,632.00
144,775,904 163,689,632
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir terlihat pada indikator MFI optimized,indikator W%R optimized dan Stochastic%D optimized cenderung naik namun khusunya indikator MFI optimized kenaikkan akan tertahan sementara.Pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized akan coba bertahan diatas tembus center line.
Daily resistance terdekat di 1,850 sebelum ke weekly resistance di 1,880. Daily dan weekly support di 1,780 dan 1,760. Cut loss level di 1,710.
Figure 8. Weekly, MFI optimized, W%R optimized, Stochastic%D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com ADRO.JK - MFI Smoothed = 38.57
38.5678 ADRO.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -53.01
-53.0148
ADRO.JK - Stochastic %D = 42.47, MA = 38.61
42.4658 38.615
ADRO.JK - Weekly 12/20/2017 Open 1800, Hi 1850, Lo 1790, Close 1800 (-0.3%) BBTop(Av erage,9,1.53) = 1,877.92, BBBot(Av erage,9,1.53) = 1,709.12, EMA(Av erage,8)
1,800 1,787.12
_____ 1,907.6 _____ 1,740.6 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Adaro Energy Tbk [ ADRO.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open: 1,800 High: 1,850 Low: 1,790 Close: 1,800 Vol. 144,775,904 Prev . Av g. Price: 1,813.3
R-Squared: 0.8737 Period: 125 Std.Dev : 1.53 Volatility (+) : 0.0520 Volatility (-) : -0.0401 V-Ratio : 1.30 Chg.: -0.3%
1,800 1,752.31
Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22 Jul Aug 31 Sep Oct Nov 30 Dec
ADRO.JK - Volume = 144,775,904.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 163,689,632.00
144,775,904 163,689,632
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area). Pada pergerakkan daily harga saat ini di level -0.907 % , normal koreksi -1.85 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly harga terkoreksi ke level -2.77%, normal koreksi sekitar -3.21 %. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 1,780 – 1,850 Figure 10. Weekly : 1,760 – 1,880 Figure 11. Monthly : 1,720 – 2,000
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 1,846.5
_____ 1,779.7 1.813.3 Adaro Energy Tbk [ ADRO.JK ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 1,813.3
R-Squared: 0.8643 Period: 532 Std.Dev : 1.50 Volatility (+) : 0.0183 Volatility (-) : -0.0185 V-Ratio : 0.99 Chg.: -1.907%
1,800
11 18
ADRO.JK - Volume = 51,378,700.00
51,378,700
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 1,877.0
_____ 1,755.2 1,813.3 1,845.2
1,784.25 Adaro Energy Tbk [ ADRO.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 1,813.3
R-Squared: 0.8737 Period: 125 Std.Dev : 1.53 Volatility (+) : 0.0351 Volatility (-) : -0.0321 V-Ratio : 1.09 Chg.: -0.277%
1,800
Nov 30 Dec
ADRO.JK - Volume = 144,775,904.00
144,775,904
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 1,999.1
_____ 1,655.8 1,780
1,781.7
1,718.75 1,899.4
1,890.4 Adaro Energy Tbk [ ADRO.JK ] - Monthly - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 1,781.7
R-Squared: 0.8764 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.54 Volatility (+) : 0.1220 Volatility (-) : -0.0707 V-Ratio : 1.73 Chg.: 5.882%
1,800
Jul Oct
ADRO.JK - Volume = 471,027,616.00
471,027,616
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM) - Weekly , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.810) selama 30 minggu terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.31 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 18.98 % (sekitar 6 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +6.6 % / -4.95 % atau +198.66 rupiah / - 149.00 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 20, 2017) 3,010 (0.0%) Trading range 2,900 - 3,260 Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 25.48 Target
β (beta) (0.48) - Daily 3,120
Corelation 0.81 - Weekly 3,260
Period 30 - Monthly 3,380
r-squared 0.810 Stop loss 2,860
Volatility (+/-, %) +6.6/ -4.95
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +198.66/ -149.00
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Weekly trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 3,255.0
_____ 2,902.1 Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk [ TKIM.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open: 3,030 High: 3,140 Low: 3,010 Close: 3,010 Vol. 7,178,400
Prev . Av g. Price: 3,053.3 R-Squared: 0.8102 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.31 Volatility (+) : 0.0660 Volatility (-) : -0.0495 V-Ratio : 1.33 Chg.: 0.000%
4,066.94
3,529.7 3,529.7 3,183.09 3,010 2,992.46 2,863.71 2,789.18 4,270.22
Mar Apr May Jun 22 Jul Aug 31 Sep Oct Nov 30 Dec 20
TKIM.JK - Volume = 7,178,400.00, EMA(Volume,10) = 17,016,806.00
7,178,400 17,016,806
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic %D optimized masih cenderung naik. Disisi lain pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba bertahan diatas center line.
Weekly resistance di 3,260 dengan catatan daily resistance 3,120 dapat ditembus.
Sementara itu daily dan weeklysupport di 2,980 dan 2,900. Cut loss level di 2,860.
Figure 13. Weekly, MFI optimized , RSI optimized, Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com TKIM.JK - MFI Smoothed = 32.26
32.2619
TKIM.JK - RSI Smoothed = 25.20
25.1991
TKIM.JK - Stochastic %D = 70.00, MA = 69.35
70 69.3454
TKIM.JK - Weekly 12/20/2017 Open 3030, Hi 3140, Lo 3010, Close 3010 (0.0%) BBTop(Average,10,1.32) = 3,611.99, BBBot(Average,10,1.32) = 2,866.68,
3,010 3,022.97
_____ 3,255.0 _____ 2,902.1 Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk [ TKIM.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Open: 3,030 High: 3,140 Low: 3,010 Close: 3,010 Vol. 7,178,400
Prev . Av g. Price: 3,053.3 R-Squared: 0.8102 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.31 Volatility (+) : 0.0660 Volatility (-) : -0.0495 V-Ratio : 1.33 Chg.: 0.0%
3,010
Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22 Jul Aug 31 Sep Oct Nov 30 Dec
TKIM.JK - Volume = 7,178,400.00, EMA(Volume,10) = 17,016,806.00
7,178,400 17,016,806
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-ratapada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Lebih lanjut potensi koreksi normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -2.25%, saat ini di level -2.90 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -4.95% saat ini harga di level 0.00 % Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 2,980 – 3,120 Figure 15. Weekly : 2,900 – 3,260 Figure 16. Monthly : 2,720 – 3,380 x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,125.1
_____ 2,975.0 3,043.3 Pabrik Kertas Tj iw i Kimia Tbk [ TKIM.JK Prev . Av g. Price: 3,043.3 R-Squared: 0.8358 Period: 123 Std.Dev : 1.40 Volatility (+) : 0.0269 Volatility (-) : -0.0225 V-Ratio : 1.20 Chg.: -2.903%
3,010
11 18
TKIM.JK - Volume = 1,249,300.00
1,249,300
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,255.0
_____ 2,902.1 3,053.3 Pabrik Kertas Tj iw i Kimia Tbk [ TKIM.JK Prev . Av g. Price: 3,053.3 R-Squared: 0.8102 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.31 Volatility (+) : 0.0660 Volatility (-) : -0.0495 V-Ratio : 1.33 Chg.: 0.000%
3,010
Nov 30 Dec
TKIM.JK - Volume = 7,178,400.00
7,178,400
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,382.0
_____ 2,715.3 2,930 Pabrik Kertas Tj iw i Kimia Tbk [ TKIM.JK Prev . Av g. Price: 2,930.0 R-Squared: 0.6447 Period: 30 Std.Dev : Volatility (+) : 0.1543 Volatility (-) : -0.0733 V-Ratio : 2.11 Chg.: -5.047%
3,010
Jul Oct
TKIM.JK - Volume = 48,449,800.00
48,449,800
Elnusa (ELSA) – Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.807 selama 96 minggu terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.30 std.deviasi dari centerline.
Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 19.29 % (sekitar 18 bar chart ).
Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +2.73 % / - 2.21 % atau + 9.77 rupiah / -7.91 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis)sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 20,2017) 358 (-1.01%) Normal trading range 350 - 370
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 8.55 Target
β (beta) 0.78 - Daily 370
Corelation (0.06) - Weekly 380
Period 96 - Monthly 406
r-squared 0.807 Stop loss 350
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.73/ -2.21
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +9.77/ -7.91
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 370.5 _____ 352.7
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Elnusa Tbk [ ELSA.JK ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Open: 364 High: 368 Low : 356 Close: 358 Vol. 44,797,600 Prev . Av g. Price: 360.7
R-Squared: 0.8071 Period: 96 Std.Dev : 1.30 Volatility (+) : 0.0273 Volatility (-) : -0.0221 V-Ratio : 1.24 Chg.: -1.1%
358
339.974 359.461 362.943 373.342 391.874 392.378 420.805 444.782
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ELSA.JK - Volume = 44,797,600.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 84,803,232.00
44,797,600 84,803,232
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai terbatas.
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI optimized cenderung naik,indikator RSI Optimized akan menguji support trendline dan indikator Stochastic%D cenderung naik. Pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba bertahan sekitar center line . Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi koreksi mulai tertahan dengan kecenderungan menguat. Perkiraan daily resistance di 370 dan weekly resistance di 380. Daily support dan weekly support di di 350. Cut loss level di 350.
Figure 18. Daily,MFI optimized, RSI optimized, Stochastic %D, Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com ELSA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 59.39
59.3925
ELSA.JK - RSI Smoothed = 17.26
17.2578 ELSA.JK - Stochastic %D = 41.01, MA = 39.32
41.0072 39.3236
ELSA.JK - Daily 12/20/2017 Open 364, Hi 368, Lo 356, Close 358 (-1.1%) BBTop(Close,9,1.3) = 376.22, BBBot(Close,9,1.3) = 345.11, EMA(Av erage,9) = 364.51
358 364.512
_____ 370.6 _____ 352.8 Elnusa Tbk [ ELSA.JK ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Open: 364 High: 368 Low: 356 Close: 358 Vol. 44,797,600
Prev . Av g. Price: 360.7 R-Squared: 0.8071 Period: 96 Std.Dev : 1.30 Volatility (+) : 0.0275 Volatility (-) : -0.0219 V-Ratio : 1.25 Chg.: -1.105%
358
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ELSA.JK - Volume = 44,797,600.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 84,803,232.00
44,797,600 84,803,232
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-ratapada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut potensi koreksi normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -2.19 %, saat ini di level -1.105 %.
Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly potensi koreksi normal sekitar -4,34 % saat ini ke level -3.243%. Dengan demikan potensi koreksi terbatas dengan kecenderungan menguat. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 350 – 370 Figure 20. Weekly : 350 – 380 Figure 21. Monthly : 320 – 406
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekatisupport, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 370.6
_____ 352.8 360.7 Elnusa Tbk [ ELSA.JK ] - Daily - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 360.7 R-Squared: 0.8071 Period: 96 Std.Dev : 1.30 Volatility (+) : 0.0275 Volatility (-) : -0.0219 V-Ratio : 1.25 Chg.: -1.105%
358
11 18
ELSA.JK - Volume = 44,797,600.00
44,797,600
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 381.6
_____ 347.6 360.0 Elnusa Tbk [ ELSA.JK ] - Weekly - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 363.3 R-Squared: 0.7475 Period: 82 Std.Dev : 1.14 Volatility (+) : 0.0503 Volatility (-) : -0.0434 V-Ratio : 1.16 Chg.: -3.243%
358
Nov 30 Dec
ELSA.JK - Volume = 176,402,208.00
176,402,208
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 405.9
_____ 322.8 361.3 Elnusa Tbk [ ELSA.JK ] - Monthly - 12/20/2017 Prev . Av g. Price: 361.3
Volatility (+) : 0.1232 Volatility (-) : -0.1067 V-Ratio : 1.15
358
Jul Oct
ELSA.JK - Volume = 1,463,461,120.00
1,463,461,120
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are December 19th, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 13,100
13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 13,600 13,700 13,800
5,600 5,700 5,800 5,900 6,000 6,100 6,200
9/20 10/18 11/15 12/13
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
-0.9
0.9 1.3
19.5
-1.0 -0.3
2.9
-13.6 -16
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
(%, %p) (%, %p)
0 11 32
-8 -4
-199
-467
-281
-34 -77
-13
-182
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
9/20 10/18 11/15 12/13
CPO WTI Coal
(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
09/17 10/17 11/17 12/17
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
85 90 95 100 105 110
9/20 10/18 11/15 12/13
Silver Gold Platinum
(D-3M=100)
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 6,109 6,780,050 -0.9 0.9 1.3 19.5 17.6 15.7 2.6 2.4 17.9 20.8
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 20,925 515,906 -0.8 0.0 -0.9 42.6 22.3 19.9 3.9 3.5 19.0 18.4
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 7,450 347,667 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 38.6 16.7 13.6 2.0 1.9 12.8 14.3
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 3,400 419,376 -1.2 -1.4 3.7 54.5 14.8 13.0 2.6 2.3 18.1 18.2
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 9,525 177,628 0.0 4.7 20.2 78.0 13.4 11.6 1.8 1.7 14.6 15.1
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 3,470 36,747 -0.3 3.3 16.1 110.3 14.8 12.9 1.5 1.4 10.6 11.3
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 4,450 517,615 -2.2 2.3 6.5 19.0 39.6 36.3 14.6 13.8 37.8 39.6
Gudang Garam GGRM 79,075 152,147 -2.4 1.0 0.3 27.5 20.6 18.2 3.6 3.2 17.7 18.2
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,925 104,083 0.6 1.7 0.3 12.6 26.8 24.5 5.3 4.8 20.7 20.4
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,550 66,292 -1.3 1.0 -2.3 2.4 15.0 14.1 2.1 1.9 14.5 13.5
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,675 78,516 -0.6 0.9 1.5 15.1 31.9 28.9 5.9 5.3 19.0 18.2
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 53,000 404,390 -2.0 3.9 7.3 37.7 55.5 49.9 75.4 67.6 144.3 144.7
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 13,050 25,117 -3.2 2.6 -8.9 -22.3 12.0 11.9 1.3 1.3 11.6 10.9
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,265 8,631 -2.7 2.4 -12.8 -27.5 10.7 10.4 1.1 1.0 10.1 9.9
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,455 13,859 -1.4 -0.7 -1.0 10.2 22.0 13.9 3.5 3.0 16.2 21.5
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 2,840 30,354 -3.7 -8.1 -8.1 27.9 83.1 29.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 4.1
Jasa Marga JSMR 6,200 44,999 -0.4 -2.7 -5.0 44.9 20.5 20.0 2.9 2.6 14.3 13.6
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1,755 42,544 -0.6 2.3 0.0 -32.0 16.2 12.9 1.0 1.0 5.5 8.3
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 6,150 27,868 -1.2 0.0 0.0 21.8 23.3 19.6 14.2 9.4 63.1 58.8
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4,160 419,328 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 10.5 17.7 16.4 4.3 3.9 26.0 24.8
Soechi Lines SOCI 234 1,652 -0.8 -3.3 -18.2 -33.9 3.5 3.5 N/A N/A 11.3 10.2
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 306 7,921 -0.6 0.7 -6.7 -10.0 16.1 12.2 1.8 1.6 11.4 13.3
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,550 56,646 -3.0 -1.8 -4.3 4.7 22.8 18.7 1.9 1.8 8.3 10.1
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,110 50,998 -4.9 -8.0 3.0 2.6 19.8 14.6 3.2 2.8 15.5 18.3
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 19,400 71,416 -3.1 -1.1 -3.2 26.0 33.2 27.5 2.8 2.6 8.2 9.8
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,295 14,777 -3.0 2.8 -0.4 -18.0 11.5 8.4 1.6 1.4 14.9 17.7
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 20,000 22,599 -2.4 -3.4 1.5 19.8 7.0 7.3 1.6 1.5 24.2 21.6
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,800 57,575 -1.9 -0.8 5.0 7.8 8.9 8.9 1.2 1.1 14.4 12.9
Aneka Tambang ANTM 630 15,139 -2.3 1.6 -5.3 -28.8 195.3 94.2 0.9 0.9 -0.4 0.9
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,850 28,319 -2.4 0.0 -2.4 1.1 N/A 35.0 1.4 1.4 -0.5 2.5
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 2,460 28,341 0.0 9.8 14.2 1.0 8.4 8.8 2.3 1.9 27.6 23.2
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 32,825 122,442 -1.7 -0.8 4.0 62.9 16.6 14.7 2.9 2.6 16.9 17.2
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,050 24,238 0.0 -3.6 -10.0 6.1 20.7 18.8 3.1 2.8 15.5 15.8
Global Mediacom BMTR 580 8,235 -4.9 5.5 -0.9 -3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 10,600 30,930 -3.4 3.4 -6.2 -26.9 15.4 14.2 11.6 8.6 90.7 75.5
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,255 17,917 0.0 -2.0 -14.3 -24.2 11.3 9.9 1.7 1.6 16.2 16.9
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 426 2,291 -1.8 0.9 -13.4 -70.6 #N/A
N/A 109.5 1.0 1.0 -3.1 0.4
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,450 35,823 -0.8 2.1 13.4 -2.8 22.5 20.0 9.3 8.2 42.8 42.9
Siloam International Hospital SILO 10,100 16,420 5.2 -4.5 2.0 1.1 138.3 111.1 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.8
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,660 31,950 -3.5 3.1 2.2 -2.9 10.9 11.1 1.3 1.2 12.6 11.1
Adhi Karya ADHI 1,900 6,766 0.8 8.6 -14.4 -8.2 12.9 8.6 1.1 1.0 8.6 11.9
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 358 7,034 -2.7 2.9 -7.3 1.7 6.5 6.2 0.9 0.8 14.5 12.9
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,165 21,623 -1.7 -2.5 0.0 -10.4 21.6 16.9 1.6 1.5 8.5 9.4
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 482 11,123 -3.6 -11.6 -22.9 -32.6 10.9 9.8 0.6 0.5 5.7 5.7
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,590 16,058 -2.3 4.0 -5.8 -30.7 11.5 9.5 1.4 1.3 12.8 13.9
Pakuwon Jati PWON 635 30,581 -2.3 -3.1 2.4 15.5 15.5 13.6 2.9 2.4 19.2 18.7
Summarecon Agung SMRA 860 12,407 1.8 3.6 -1.7 -31.2 40.6 27.0 1.8 1.7 4.9 6.5
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,580 14,173 -1.6 5.0 -19.8 -34.2 11.6 9.5 1.1 1.0 9.9 10.9
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,210 29,998 -1.8 13.9 2.8 -6.4 9.3 8.3 1.8 1.6 21.4 19.3
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 8,000 323,868 -2.1 -1.2 -1.5 3.9 16.5 14.9 2.6 2.3 15.9 15.9
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,578.9 -2.1 INAF IJ 5100 15,806 8.74
Mining 1,585.1 -0.4 GEMS IJ 2780 16,353 6.92
Basic-Industry 654.8 -1.7 BDMN IJ 6050 57,987 5.2
Miscellaneous Industry 1,337.8 -2.0 SILO IJ 10100 16,420 5.21
Consumer Goods 2,734.9 -1.5 IIKP IJ 330 11,088 4.43
Property & Construction 482.1 -1.0 EMTK IJ 9400 53,016 3.3
Infrastructure 1,126.5 -0.7 NIKL IJ 4200 10,598 2.69
Finance 1,084.7 -0.6 BISI IJ 1810 5,430 2.26
Trade 915.1 0.2 RMBA IJ 378 13,760 2.16
Composite 6,109.5 -0.9 SMRA IJ 860 12,407 1.8
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
MABA IJ 20.3 1,660 HMSP IJ -2.2 4,450
BDMN IJ 5.2 6,050 UNVR IJ -2.0 53,000
EMTK IJ 3.3 9,400 ASII IJ -2.1 8,000
TAMU IJ 12.3 3,370 BBRI IJ -1.2 3,400
INAF IJ 8.7 5,100 BBCA IJ -0.8 20,925
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
3:00am USD President Trump Speaks
4:45am NZD GDP q/q 0.6% 1.0%
6:05am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -12 -12
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
1:30pm JPY BOJ Press Conference
2:00pm CHF Trade Balance 2.84B 2.33B
4:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 8.3B 7.5B
8:30pm CAD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
8:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.3%
8:30pm CAD Common CPI y/y 1.7% 1.6%
8:30pm CAD Median CPI y/y 1.7% 1.7%
8:30pm CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.1%
8:30pm CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
8:30pm CAD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -5.7K
8:30pm CAD Core CPI m/m 0.3%
8:30pm USD Final GDP q/q 3.3% 3.3%
8:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 21.5 22.7
8:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 232K 225K
8:30pm USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 2.1% 2.1%
9:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.4% 0.3%
10:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence 0 0
10:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 1.2%
10:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage -160B -69B
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
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