Andy Wibowo Gunawan +62-21-515-1140 andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@miraeasset.co.id
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
WINS’ OSV market share reached 3.8% in 2016
Source: : Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Feb 28, 2017
WINS: The return of the winner
Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk (WINS) adalah penyedia terkemuka kapal lepas pantai yang berbasis di Indonesia (OSV) dan melayani perusahaan minyak dan gas raksasa serta memegang pangsa pasar OSV signifikan di Asia (3,8%). Untuk 2017F, kami optimis kelanjutan program efisiensi dan penetrasi pasar baru dari WINS.
Untuk jangka panjang, kami optimis perubahan skema production sharing contract menjadi gross split dapat memberikan katalis positif terhadap WINS.
Unbeatable competitive advantage compared to peers
Di Asia Pasifik, WINS menguasai pangsa pasar 3.8% di tahun 2016. Serta, WINS juga memliki jumlah armada kapal yang lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk (LEAD). WINS melayani perusahaan-perusahaan minyak dan gas raksasa seperti British Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Inpex, Schlumberger, dll.
Growth drivers: Efficiency, new markets, and revised regulation
WINS melakukan program efisiensi seperti menumpuk kapal yang memiliki utilisasi rendah di suatu tempat, memotong capex 2016, serta mengurangi biaya operasi lainnya. Selanjutnya, WINS juga melakukan penetrasi ke pasar-pasar luar negeri.
Untuk jangka panjang, perubahan skema production sharing contract menjadi gross split dapat memberikan katalis positif terhadap WINS.
Brighter outlook this year
Dengan perkiraan naiknya pendapatan 2H17F, kelanjutan program efficiency, dan penetrasi pasar-pasar baru, kami optimis kinerja keuangan 2017F WINS akan membaik.
Currently trading at 0.43x PBV
WINS saat ini diperdagangkan pada PBV 0,43x atau dibawah rata-rata 5-tahunan.
Kami mencatat harga saham WINS jatuh ke Rp280 pada pecan lalu dari level tertingginya pada harga Rp1.410.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,382.9 -0.1 1.7 12.9
MSCI Indonesia 24.6 -0.9 1.5 12.2
MSCI EM 940.3 -0.3 3.0 27.5
HANG SENG 23,925.1 -0.2 2.6 25.4
KOSPI 2,085.5 0.0 0.9 8.8
FTSE 7,253.0 0.1 2.0 18.8
DJIA 20,837.4 0.1 4.8 26.1
NASDAQ 5,861.9 0.3 4.1 28.2
Valuation
2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.6 2.3 17.9
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50*
3yr 7.23 4 4 -56
10yr 7.54 1 -8 -72
*since introduced in Aug 2016
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,341.00 0.1 -0.2 -0.3
USD/KRW 1,133.75 0.2 -2.4 -8.3
USD/JPY 112.70 0.5 -0.1 0.0
USD/CNY 6.87 0.0 -0.2 4.8
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 54.1 0.1 1.2 28.9
Gold 1,252.7 -0.4 3.5 1.1
Coal 83.5 4.2 -0.3 65.5
Palm Oil 705.0 0.0 5.0 21.3
Rubber 197.0 0.0 -13.5 89.2
Nickel 10,860.0 2.6 14.6 27.9
Copper 5,928.0 1.2 0.5 26.0
Tin 18,955.0 -1.0 -3.9 20.4
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16 01/17
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
1,100 5,500
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
3.8
96.2
WINS Others (%)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
Local flashes
UNTR: Pendapatan United Tractors turun 8% pada 2016. PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) mencatatkan pendapatan bersih konsolidasian pada 2016 mengalami penurunan sebesar 8 % menjadi Rp45,5 triliun dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya Rp49,3 triliun. President Director UNTR Tbk Gidion Hasan mengemukakan, penurunan itu utamanya disebabkan oleh penurunan volume produksi dan pendapatan dari unit usaha kontraktor penambangan. (Kontan)
ASII: Astra catatkan pertumbuhan laba 5% pada 2016. PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) mencatatkan laba bersih naik sebesar 5 % menjadi Rp15,156 triliun pada tahun 2016 dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya Rp14,464 triliun. Presiden Direktur Astra international Tbk Prijono Sugiarto mengemukakan bahwa kinerja laba bersih itu seiring dengan peningkatan kontribusi dari segmen otomotif, alat berat dan pertambangan, agribisnis serta infrastruktur dan logistik, dimana sebagian peningkatan kontribusi itu diimbangi oleh penurunan kontribusi dari segmen jasa keuangan, teknologi informasi dan properti. (Kontan)
AALI: Astra Agro Lestari catat laba Rp2 triliun hingga 31 Desember 2016. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) alami pertumbuhan laba yang dapat didistribusikan kepada pemilik entitasn induk sebesar 224% hingga periode 31 Desember 2016 menjadi Rp2 triliun atau Rp1.135,85 per saham dibandingkan laba pada periode sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp619,10 miliar atau Rp393,15 per saham. Laporan keuangan perseroan menyebutkan, pendapatan bersih naik jadi Rp14,12 triliun dibandingkan pendapatan bersih Rp13,05 triliun tahun sebelumnya dan beban pokok naik jadi Rp10,44 triliun dari beban pokok Rp9,97 triliun tahun sebelumnya. (Iqplus)
TOWR: Laba Sarana Menara naik tipis, pendapatan tumbuh 12,97%. PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. (TOWR) berhasil mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 12,97% pada 2016. Perseroan tercatat berhasil mengumpulkan pendapatan sebesar Rp5,05 triliun atau tumbuh 12,97% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan 2015 sebesar Rp4,47 triliun. Adapun, beban pokok pendapatan naik menjadi Rp668,77 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp571,50 miliar sehingga laba kotor perseroan tercatat Rp4,38 triliun.
Laba kotor tersebut naik dari laba kotor 2015 yang senilai Rp3,90 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia)
TURI: Kinerja Tunas Ridean 2016 naik signifikan. PT Tunas Ridean Tbk. atau TURI mencatatkan kinerja mengkilap pada tahun lalu. Kinerja Pendapatan bersih Grup untuk tahun yang berakhir pada 31 Desember 2016 sebesar Rp12,5 triliun, naik 23%
dibanding tahun sebelumnya. Laba yang diatribusikan kepada pemegang saham sebesar Rp551,7 milyar naik 90% dari tahun sebelumnya, sementara laba per saham juga mengalami kenaikan 90% menjadi Rp 99. (Bisnis Indonesia)
BBTN: BTN belum tertarik ekspansi ke luar negeri. PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) menyatakan masih belum tertarik untuk bergabung bersama Himpunan Bank- Bank Negara (Himbara) dalam ekspansi ke negara anggota Asean. Direktur Keuangan dan Treasuri BTN Iman Nugroho Soeko mengatakan bank spesialis kredit perumahan berkode emiten BBTN tersebut masih memfokuskan pengembangan bisnisnya untuk menggarap potensi pasar di dalam negeri secara optimal. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 tasrul@miraeasset.co.id Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation
IHSG akan coba naik menguji center line sekitar level 5,399-5,404
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 31 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.7093 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.06 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 29.07% atau sekitar 9 bar chart. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/-0.38% atau sekitar +/-20.7 point. IHSG akan coba naik menguji resistance di 5,404 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 5,382.8 (-0.1%) Trading range 5,370-5,404 Average index performance (%) 0.80 Target
Period 31 - Daily 5,404
r-squared 0.7093 - Weekly 5,417
Volatility (+/-, %) 0.38 - Monthly 5,439 Volatility (+/-, point) 20.7 Stop loss 5,370 Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,404
^JKSE - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 5387.82, Hi 5393.66, Lo 5368.42, Close 5382.87 (-0.1%) Upper Band = 5,425.28, Channel_prd = 5,398.46, Lower Band = 5,371.65, Upper Band = 5,456.83, Channel_prd = 5,398.46
5,382.87
5,371.65 5,370.18
5,341.73 5,340.1 5,398.46 5,398.46 5,425.28 5,456.83
9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 10,583,453,696.00, Avg.Volume = 16,782,210,048.00
10,583,453,696 16,782,210,048
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas indeks naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI optimized masih cenderung naik namun volume masih di bawah rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat namun terbatas. Resistance terdekat di 5,404. Sementara support terdekat di 5,370 yang sekaligus sebagai stop loss.
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 65.84
65.8383
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 73.48
73.4759
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,404
^JKSE - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 5387.82, Hi 5393.66, Lo 5368.42, Close 5382.87 (-0.1%) VWAP = 5,329.88, VWAP = 5,370.18, VWAP = 5,341.73
5,382.87 5,370.18 5,341.73 5,329.88
26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 10,583,453,696.00, Avg.Volume = 16,782,210,048.00
10,583,453,696 16,782,210,048
IHSG akan coba bertahan sekitar rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat berikutnya resistance 2 pada periode masing-masing sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 3,4 dan 5.
Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,404 Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,417 Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,439
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 5387.82, Hi 5393.66, Lo 5368.42,
5,382.87 5,372.86 5,362.52 5,352.18 5,341.85 5,383.19 5,393.53 5,403.86 5,414.2 5,424.54
16 23 30 Feb 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 10,583,453,696.00, Avg.Volume = 16,782,210,048.00
10,583,453,696 16,782,210,048
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Weekly 3/5/2017 Open 5387.82, Hi 5393.66, Lo 5368.42,
5,382.87 5,349.17 5,315.15 5,281.12 5,247.1 5,383.19 5,417.22 5,451.24 5,485.26 5,519.29
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 10,583,453,696.00, Avg.Volume = 59,318,288,384.00
10,583,453,696 59,318,288,384
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Monthly 2/27/2017 Open 5319.94, Hi 5418.38, Lo
5,382.87 5,359.67 5,280.12 5,200.57 5,121.02 5,041.47 5,439.22 5,518.77 5,598.32 5,677.87
2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 - Powered by AMTA
^JKSE - Volume = 337,823,236,096.00, Avg.Volume = 162,132,246,528.00337,823,236,096
162,132,246,528
Stocks on our focus list
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada trend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.87) selama 43 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.53 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 12.6 % (sekitar 5 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakkan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 2.14% atau sekitar +/-37.71 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 35-40 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 6.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 1,760(+0.3%) Trading range 1,730-1,840
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) (0.34) Target
β (beta) 0.20 - Daily 1,805
Corelation 0.79 - Weekly 1,855
Period 43 - Monthly 1,890
r-squared 0.87 Stop loss 1,655
Volatility (+/-, %) 2.14
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 37.71
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
1,730 1,805 JPFA.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 1755, Hi 1805, Lo 1755, Close 1760 (0.3%) Upper Band = 1,987.55, Channel_prd = 1,903.25, Lower Band = 1,818.95, Upper Band = 2,025.82, Channel_prd = 1,902.36, Lower
1,760
1,656.4 1,778.9 1,818.95 1,843.07 1,902.36 1,903.25 1,987.55 2,025.82
21 28 Dec 5 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,397,800.00, Avg.Volume = 8,253,011.00
5,397,800 8,253,011
Aliran dana keluat dan volatilitas harga turun masih terlihat namun sudah terbatas.
Pada Figure 7, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI optimized akan menguji support trendline dengan volume mendekati rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi koreksi makin terbatas dengan kecenderungan menguat. Resistance terdekat di 1,805 sebelum lanjut ke 1,840.
Support terdekat di 1,730. Stop loss level di 1,655.
Figure 7. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com JPFA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 33.55
33.5505
JPFA.JK - RSI Smoothed = 39.07
39.075
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
1,730 1,805 JPFA.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 1755, Hi 1805, Lo 1755, Close 1760 (0.3%) VWAP = 1,656.40, VWAP = 1,843.07
1,760 1,656.4 1,843.07
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,397,800.00, Avg.Volume = 8,253,011.00
5,397,800 8,253,011
Harga akan coba bertahan sekitar rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-ratadengan target berikutnya diatas resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 8,9 dan 10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 1,805 Figure 9. Weekly, target : 1,855 Figure 10. Monthly, target : 1,890
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com JPFA.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 1755, Hi 1805, Lo 1755, Close
1,760 1,749.89 1,731.04 1,712.18 1,693.33 1,768.75 1,787.61 1,806.46 1,825.32 1,844.17
16 23 30 Feb 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,397,800.00, Avg.Volume = 8,253,011.00
5,397,800 8,253,011
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com JPFA.JK - Weekly 3/5/2017 Open 1755, Hi 1805, Lo 1755,
1,760 1,725.95 1,683.14 1,640.34 1,597.54 1,768.75 1,811.55 1,854.36 1,897.16 1,939.96
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,397,800.00, Avg.Volume = 30,701,760.00
5,397,800 30,701,760
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com JPFA.JK - Monthly 2/27/2017 Open 1755, Hi 1950, Lo 1675,
1,760 1,731.48 1,677.96 1,624.43 1,570.91 1,785 1,838.52 1,892.04 1,945.57 1,999.09
2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
JPFA.JK - Volume = 126,597,096.00, Avg.Volume = 139,879,248.00
126,597,096 139,879,248
Harum Energy (HRUM) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik tembus centerline band pada uptrend channel .
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.78) selama 277 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.23 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 21.62 % (sekitar 60 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/ 3.42 % atau sekitar +/- 75.55 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 76 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik tembus center line pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 11.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 2,210(+2.3%) Trading range 2,170-2,320 Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 5.21 Target
β (beta) 0.16 - Daily 2,250
Corelation 0.35 - Weekly 2,300
Period 277 - Monthly 2,380
r-squared 0.78 Stop loss 2,130
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.42
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 75.55
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,320
2,170 HRUM.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 2190, Hi 2280, Lo 2160, Close 2210 (2.3%) Upper Band = 2,615.04, Channel_prd = 2,261.53, Lower Band = 1,908.02, VWAP = 2,264.11, VWAP = 2,126.41
2,210 2,126.41
1,908.02 2,261.53 2,264.11 2,615.04
2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 16,626,600.00, Avg.Volume = 13,479,414.00
16,626,600 13,479,414
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Resistance terdekat di 2,620.
Support saat ini di 2,170. Stop loss level di 2,130.
Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - MFI Smoothed = 62.07
62.0662
HRUM.JK - RSI Smoothed = 70.19
70.1888
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,320
2,170 HRUM.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 2190, Hi 2280, Lo 2160, Close 2210 (2.3%) VWAP = 2,126.41, VWAP = 2,264.11
2,210 2,126.41 2,264.11
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 16,626,600.00, Avg.Volume = 13,479,414.00
16,626,600 13,479,414
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas level rata-rata masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing- masing periode dengan target berikutnya ke resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 14,15 dan 16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 2,250 Figure 14. Weekly, target : 2,300 Figure 15. Monthly, target : 2,380 x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 2190, Hi 2280, Lo 2160,
2,210 2,172.23 2,134.45 2,096.68 2,058.9 2,210 2,247.77 2,285.55 2,323.32 2,361.1
16 23 30 Feb 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 16,626,600.00, Avg.Volume = 13,479,414.00
16,626,600 13,479,414
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Weekly 3/5/2017 Open 2190, Hi 2280, Lo 2160,
2,210 2,120.67 2,031.34 1,942.01 1,852.69 2,210 2,299.33 2,388.66 2,477.99 2,567.31
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 16,626,600.00, Avg.Volume = 41,383,084.00
16,626,600 41,383,084
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Monthly 2/27/2017 Open 2220, Hi 2280, Lo 1920,
2,210 2,157.5 1,936.29
1,715.08 1,493.87
1,272.66 2,378.71 2,599.92 2,821.13 3,042.34
2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 145,156,608.00, Avg.Volume = 305,217,088.00
145,156,608 305,217,088
Eagle High Plantations (BWPT) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.94 selama 68 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.9 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar5.76 % (sekitar 4 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 13,23 % atau sekitar +/-12.16 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 12 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 16.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27 2017) 376 (+2.7%) Trading range 366-400
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 11.53 Target
β (beta) 2.25 - Daily 384
Corelation 0.85 - Weekly 386
Period 68 - Monthly 408
r-squared 0.94 Stop loss 360
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.23
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 12.16
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
366 390 400 BWPT.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 366, Hi 378, Lo 366, Close 376 (2.7%) Upper Band = 413.93, Channel_prd = 386.83, Lower Band = 359.73, VWAP = 329.60, VWAP = 368.81
376 368.814 359.728
329.596 386.831 413.935
24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BWPT.JK - Volume = 76,609,504.00, Avg.Volume = 120,368,720.00
76,609,504 120,368,720
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih berlanjut.
Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator RSI Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan volume mendekati rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraan resistance terdekat ke 390-400. Support terdekat di 366. Stop loss level di 360..
Figure 17. Daily MFI Optimized & RSI Optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com BWPT.JK - MFI Smoothed = 44.87
44.867
BWPT.JK - RSI Smoothed = 64.07
64.0669
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
366 390 400 BWPT.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 366, Hi 378, Lo 366, Close 376 (2.7%) VWAP = 368.81, VWAP = 329.60
376 368.814 329.596
13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BWPT.JK - Volume = 76,609,504.00, Avg.Volume = 120,368,720.00
76,609,504 120,368,720
Harga akan coba naik mendekati resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan targetterdekat minimal resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 18,19 dan 20.
Figure 18. Daily, target : 384 Figure 19. Weekly, target : 386 Figure 20. Monthly, target : 408
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
analyzed by : Tasrul, tasrul@dwsec-id.com, +62-21- 5151140
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com BWPT.JK - Daily 2/27/2017 Open 366, Hi 378, Lo 366, Close
376 371.5 365.418 359.335 353.253 347.171 377.582 383.665 389.747 395.829
16 23 30 Feb 13 20 27
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BWPT.JK - Volume = 76,609,504.00, Avg.Volume = 120,368,720.00
76,609,504 120,368,720
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com BWPT.JK - Weekly 3/5/2017 Open 366, Hi 378, Lo 366, Close
376 371.5 356.884 342.269 327.653 313.037 386.116 400.731 415.347 429.963
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BWPT.JK - Volume = 76,609,504.00, Avg.Volume = 699,633,344.00
76,609,504 699,633,344
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com BWPT.JK - Monthly 2/27/2017 Open 348, Hi 398, Lo 332,
376 363.5 319.138 274.776 230.414 186.052 407.862 452.224 496.586 540.948
2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BWPT.JK - Volume = 2,158,151,168.00, Avg.Volume = 2,754,222,592.00
2,158,151,168 2,754,222,592
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 24. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are Feb 23rd, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 26. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 12,800
13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000
4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300 5,500
11/28 12/26 1/23 2/20
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
-0.1
0.4 1.7
12.8
0.3 0.8
-1.0
-14.2 -16
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
0
-68 -15 -20 -3
103 264
516
-62
-3 -16
1,022
-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
CPO WTI Coal
(
( (D-3M=100)
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
( ( ( (
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
Silver Gold Platinum
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,383 5,879,851 -0.1 0.4 1.3 13.7 15.6 13.6 2.3 2.1 17.9 17.8
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 15,500 382,153 0.0 0.3 0.6 16.1 17.0 15.0 3.0 2.6 18.9 18.5
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 11,175 260,750 0.7 -0.9 1.8 17.9 19.6 12.8 1.8 1.6 10.3 13.0
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 11,875 292,946 -0.6 1.1 1.3 9.4 10.9 10.5 1.9 1.8 20.2 18.6
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 6,175 115,155 -2.8 -1.6 7.4 22.9 9.1 8.8 1.2 1.2 13.9 14.4
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,090 22,133 -2.8 -2.3 8.6 25.1 12.8 11.1 1.2 1.1 10.1 10.6
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,950 459,456 0.8 2.9 0.8 -10.2 34.8 31.5 12.7 11.7 37.0 38.5
Gudang Garam GGRM 65,750 126,509 1.2 8.7 4.7 4.4 16.6 14.6 2.8 2.5 17.8 18.0
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,350 97,377 0.3 -0.3 -2.3 10.4 24.2 21.8 5.0 4.5 21.5 21.7
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,975 70,024 -1.5 -1.8 -0.3 16.8 15.8 13.9 2.2 2.0 13.8 14.7
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,535 71,953 2.7 5.1 3.7 20.4 28.2 25.2 5.4 4.9 20.0 20.4
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 42,250 322,368 0.0 0.4 1.3 -3.8 44.7 39.5 55.7 52.0 131.0 138.5
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 15,600 30,025 4.2 2.5 -1.3 15.7 14.8 15.9 1.9 1.7 14.1 11.2
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,540 10,507 2.7 1.0 -3.8 10.8 13.7 11.8 1.3 1.2 9.7 10.6
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,520 14,478 1.3 -7.3 -6.7 -21.9 20.6 16.5 3.6 3.1 17.5 18.8
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,010 32,171 -3.5 -6.8 4.9 -21.3 60.8 75.3 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.7
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,860 35,273 0.0 2.3 15.2 -10.2 15.6 19.1 2.3 2.4 15.7 12.3
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,820 68,361 -1.4 4.8 0.7 8.5 11.7 11.1 1.5 1.3 12.8 12.5
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,300 24,016 -1.9 1.9 6.6 -5.8 18.3 15.8 7.7 5.5 47.0 39.2
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,870 390,096 0.8 0.0 -0.5 17.5 16.7 15.2 4.0 3.7 24.1 24.4
Soechi Lines SOCI 272 1,920 -1.4 -8.1 -11.7 -42.6 3.4 N/A N/A N/A 11.3 N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 340 8,801 0.6 -4.5 0.0 -18.1 20.7 14.7 2.5 2.3 11.8 15.1
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,525 56,498 -0.5 3.5 3.3 -7.1 12.0 14.2 1.9 1.8 16.3 13.3
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,200 52,474 -2.1 -6.7 1.3 -4.5 15.6 12.8 3.1 2.6 21.2 21.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 15,600 57,427 -0.3 0.6 -1.9 -20.9 15.7 14.7 2.0 1.9 13.4 13.9
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,760 20,083 0.3 -7.4 4.5 130.1 10.5 8.5 2.0 1.6 21.2 20.4
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,800 18,983 -2.5 8.6 15.7 159.5 10.4 8.6 1.5 1.5 15.0 17.0
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,700 54,376 0.0 0.3 -1.4 183.3 11.6 11.6 1.2 1.1 9.4 10.4
Aneka Tambang ANTM 740 17,783 -3.3 -5.7 -8.1 100.5 36.0 16.4 1.0 1.0 2.5 5.2
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,560 25,437 4.1 -8.2 9.4 63.1 N/A 38.4 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.6
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 11,025 25,403 -1.1 -0.7 1.8 116.2 9.3 9.0 2.0 1.8 21.0 20.3
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 24,925 92,974 -2.3 2.0 10.3 63.7 15.8 16.0 1.7 2.1 10.3 13.4
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,425 25,647 -5.2 4.9 -4.1 -17.4 20.0 17.5 3.4 3.0 17.4 17.8
Global Mediacom BMTR 515 7,312 2.0 -8.0 -14.2 -40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 14,000 40,851 -2.8 -1.9 -6.4 -17.6 16.8 15.0 14.3 10.9 96.6 80.9
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,665 23,770 4.7 6.7 -3.8 -12.4 12.9 11.4 2.1 2.0 17.3 17.8
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 1,210 6,507 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -32.6 33.5 27.0 2.3 2.2 5.9 7.9
Surya Citra Media SCMA 3,060 44,742 -2.9 5.9 5.5 5.2 24.7 21.4 10.8 9.4 46.9 46.9
Siloam International Hospital SILO 13,725 17,851 -0.2 1.7 15.3 78.8 113.9 71.7 6.5 6.0 5.4 6.1
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,855 35,703 -2.4 -1.9 -0.3 10.1 14.7 13.5 1.5 1.4 10.6 10.8
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,140 7,620 -1.8 -1.8 1.9 -18.9 23.6 12.3 1.4 1.2 5.9 10.5
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 376 7,388 -0.5 -2.1 -3.1 7.7 8.7 6.4 1.0 0.9 10.9 12.7
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,340 24,871 -2.9 -2.2 1.9 2.5 17.0 14.0 1.9 1.7 12.5 12.8
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 745 17,193 -0.7 -3.9 3.5 -25.9 14.9 13.3 0.9 0.8 6.6 6.9
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,490 21,638 -0.9 -2.8 1.2 -2.3 23.1 15.2 2.4 2.1 14.4 17.1
Pakuwon Jati PWON 585 28,173 -0.8 3.5 2.6 25.5 13.7 11.2 2.7 2.2 20.5 20.9
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,385 19,981 -0.7 0.7 1.5 -12.1 39.3 30.3 3.0 2.8 7.6 9.6
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,500 22,425 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 14.4 18.3 1.8 1.8 12.9 11.9
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,450 33,256 -0.8 -3.9 -4.7 26.3 17.3 15.1 3.1 2.1 16.6 16.0
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 8,025 324,881 -1.2 0.9 -0.9 18.0 17.0 15.3 2.7 2.5 15.9 16.0
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,863.4 1.2 CTRS IJ 2710 5,510 N/A
Mining 1,422.0 0.2 AUTO IJ 2700 13,013 18.94
Basic-Industry 563.1 -0.4 SRIL IJ 348 6,470 15.23
Miscellaneous Industry 1,363.3 -0.2 COWL IJ 1205 5,870 11.06
Consumer Goods 2,388.1 0.5 DOID IJ 740 6,161 10.4
Property & Construction 512.8 -0.8 SDRA IJ 1050 5,326 5.00
Infrastructure 1,065.6 0.3 MNCN IJ 1665 23,770 4.72
Finance 827.1 -0.3 KRAS IJ 720 13,929 4.35
Trade 865.8 -0.6 MYOR IJ 1990 44,494 4.2
Composite 5,382.9 -0.1 AALI IJ 15600 30,025 4.17
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
HMSP IJ 0.8 3,950 ASII IJ -1.2 8,025
TLKM IJ 0.8 3,870 BBNI IJ -2.8 6,175
AUTO IJ 18.9 2,700 UNTR IJ -2.3 24,925
KLBF IJ 2.7 1,535 BBRI IJ -0.6 11,875
MYOR IJ 4.2 1,990 AKRA IJ -5.2 6,425
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
12:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 3.4% 3.9%
28th-2nd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.6% -0.8%
2:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% -0.2%
2:45am EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.4%
3:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.3 101.7
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 6.5%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.4%
8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.1% 1.9%
8:30am USD Goods Trade Balance -66.0B -64.4B
8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.1% 2.1%
8:30am USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 1.0%
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 5.3% 5.3%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 53.1 50.3
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 111.1 111.8
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 10 12
4:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q 4.1% -1.8%
5:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 51.2
6:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 0.6% -1.3%
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.7%
7:30pm AUD GDP q/q 0.7% -0.5%
7:30pm JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 53.6 53.5
8:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.3
8:00pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.6
8:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.9 51.0
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
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