Christine Natasya +62-21-515-1140 natasya@miraeasset.co.id To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@miraeasset.co.id
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
RALS’ same store sales growth
Source: : Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Feb 23, 2017
RALS: More catalysts for change
RALS membukukan SSSG 4.3% di January 2017, turun 1.2%pYoY dari 5.5% di Januari 2016. Namun, penjualan tumbuh 3.9% YoY menjadi IDR569.6bn.
Berdasarkan wilayah, 1M17 mencatatkan SSSG: Great Jakarta 6.6% (1M16:12.2%), rest of Java 1.7% (1M16: 1.8%), dan luar Jawa sebesar 3.8% (1M16: 3.6%). SSSG luar Jawa mengalami peningkatan 20bpsYoY, kami pikir ini dikarenakan penutupan beberapa toko yang tidak menguntungkan. Kami melihat net selling space tahun lalu sebesar 42.3%, lebih tinggi dari tahun ini sebesar 41% dari total luas area. Kami atribusikan kuatnya SSSG luar Jawa dikarenakan pulihnya komoditas dan penutupan toko tidak menguntungkan.
Closures of unprofitable stores to lift margins and SSSG
RALS baru menutup 4 toko (3 supermarket dan 1 dept store). Kami atribusikan penutupan supermarket yang terletak di Pondok Gede (Greater Jakarta), Dinoyo (Jawa Timur), dan Panam (Sumatera), dikarenakan unprofitabilitynya. Di sisi lain, penutupan dept store, yang terletak di Blok M, disebabkan tidak diperpanjangnya masa sewa. Dengan persaingan ketat dengan minimarket dan pasar tradisional, kami percaya supermarket masih menjadi beban perusahaan. Karena itu, kami mengharapkan penutupan supermarket yang merugi akan lebih baik untuk mengangkat SSSG perusahaan ke depannya. Kami memproyeksikan gross marjin supermarket untuk tumbuh 175bps dari 11.5% pada tahun 2014 menjadi 13.2% di 2018F.
Pushing for a larger consignment portion
Meskipun margin kotor lebih kecil mengingat bahwa margin fashion consignment lebih rendah (c.25%) dibandingkan fashion outright (c.40%), operating margin akan terlihat mirip, mengingat upah tenaga penjual ini dibayar oleh pemilik merek. Kami mengharapkan kontribusi yang lebih besar dari konsinyasi dapat menaikkan target pelanggan karena variasi barang yang dijual (merek top konsinyasi biasanya menjual sepatu, sedangkan outright product menjual pakaian). Kami berharap penjualan konsinyasi yang lebih tinggi berarti produktivitas yang lebih tinggi per m². Kami mempertahankan target price di IDR1,690, mengimplikasikan P/E 24.8x. Saat ini, RALS diperdagangkan pada 19.3x 2017F P/E, pada rata-rata P/E 5 tahunnya.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,358.7 0.3 1.7 14.8
MSCI Indonesia 24.6 0.0 3.1 10.1
MSCI EM 951.0 0.6 4.8 27.0
HANG SENG 24,202.0 1.0 4.7 23.4
KOSPI 2,106.6 -0.1 2.0 10.1
FTSE 7,302.3 0.4 1.7 22.0
DJIA 20,775.6 0.2 4.8 26.2
NASDAQ 5,860.6 -0.1 5.6 30.3
Valuation
2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.5 2.3 17.9
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50*
3yr 7.21 0 7 -50
10yr 7.58 -3 4 -60
*since introduced in Aug 2016
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,368.00 0.0 0.0 -0.5
USD/KRW 1,142.52 -0.3 -2.0 -7.2
USD/JPY 113.31 -0.3 0.5 1.1
USD/CNY 6.88 0.1 0.4 5.6
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 53.6 -1.4 0.2 32.6
Gold 1,237.4 0.1 1.6 0.9
Coal 79.8 -0.3 -4.8 58.5
Palm Oil 705.0 0.0 5.0 21.3
Rubber 213.2 0.0 2.0 108.9
Nickel 10,855.0 -2.6 11.9 23.8
Copper 6,060.0 -0.2 5.4 29.1
Tin 19,325.0 -2.4 -2.0 25.9
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16 01/17
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
1,100 5,500
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
Local flashes
WIKA: Wijaya Karya pimpin proyek Tol Serang-Panimbang. PT Wijaya Karta (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) melalui anak usahanya PT Wijaya Karya Serang Panimbang menandatangani Perjanjian Pengusahaan Jalan Tol (PPJT) dengan Badan Pengusahaan Jalan Tol (BPJT) dan Perjanjian Penjaminan Proyek Tol Serang-Panimbang dengan PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (PPI). Jalan Tol Serang Panimbang merupakan salah satu dari empat ruas jalan tol kerjasama pemerintah badan usaha (KPBU) yang mendapat dukungan pemerintah dalam bentuk penjaminan bersama dari Kementerian Keuangan dan PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (PII) (Kontan)
PPRO: PP Properti bidik Rp 1,5 T dari right issue. PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO) akan melaksanakan Penambahan Modal Dengan Memberikan Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahuli (PM-HMETD) I dengan menawarkan sebanyak-banyaknya 7,3 miliar lembar saham baru dengan nilai nominal Rp 25,- per saham atau sebesar 23,09% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor penuh Perseroan. Dalam penawaran ini perusahaan induk PPRO yakni PT Pembangunan Perumahan Tbk (PTPP) akan menyetorkan dana ke anak usahanya ini sebesar Rp 1 triliun. Saat ini, PTPP memiliki saham PPRO sebanyak 64,96%.
(Kontan)
BBCA: BCA fokus ekspansi digital di 2017. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA) telah menjatahkan anggaran sebesar Rp 4 triliun untuk ekspansi bisnis tahun ini. Dari jumlah tersebut, antara lain akan dialokasikan untuk pengembangan infrastruktur teknologi informasi (TI), seperti e-channel dan internet banking. Direktur BCA Santoso Liem menyebut, awal tahun ini, pihaknya sudah mengembangkan digitalisasi, seperti meluncurkan produk dan layanan eBranch, Halo BCA chat dan Virtual Assistant Chat Banking BCA (Vira). Belanja modal juga akan digunakan untuk penambahan infrastruktur. Misalnya, penambahan ATM dan cash deposit machine (CDM) atau alat setor tunai sebanyak 1.000 unit. (Kontan)
NRCA: Nusa Raya Cipta jual saham di Baskhara Utama Ke Astratel Rp223 miliar. PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk. (NRCA) menjual kepemilikan sahamnya di PT Baskhara Utama Sedaya senilai Rp223 miliar kepada PT Astratel Nusantara (Astratel). Direktur Utama Nusa Raya Cipta Hadi Winarto Christanto mengatakan tujuan divestasi saham tersebut untuk memperoleh modal tambahan guna membuka peluang investasi baru. perseroan dan Astratel telah menandatangani perjanjian jual beli bersyarat pada 26 Januari 2017.
(Bisnis Indonesia)
MTLA: Metland - Ascendas investasi Rp2,8 triliun di Tangerang. PT Metropolitan Karyadeka Ascendas perusahaan patungan antara PT Metropolitan Land Tbk. dengan pengembang asal Singapura Ascendas Group meluncurkan proyek One Parc Puri seluas 9,7 hektare di kawasan Metland Cyber City seluas 65 hektare di Tangerang. Direktur PT Metropolitan Karyadeka Ascendas Olivia Surodjo mengatakan untuk tahap pertama, perusahaan akan mengembangkan lahan seluas 1,3 hektare dengan nilai investasi Rp2,8 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia)
CPIN: Charoen gandeng Undip kembangkan unggas. PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPI) bekerjasama dengan Universitas Diponegoro (Undip) dalam mengembangkan unggas. Kerjasama itu salah satunya dalam pembangunan kandang unggas jenis closed house. Pendirian kandang ini dilakukan Undip bekerjasama dengan PT Cemerlang Unggas Lestari, anak usaha Charoen Pokphand Group dengan kapasitas 11.000 ekor ayam. Kandang ternak dengan investasi sekitar Rp 900 juta ini yang dimiliki Undip ini merupakan kandang unggas modern yang dapat berproduksi delapan kali dalam setahun. (Kontan)
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 tasrul@miraeasset.co.id Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Tendency to Rise
IHSG akan coba naik menguji resistance di level 5,392
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 373 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.8462 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.43 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 15.38% atau sekitar 57 bar chart. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/- 0.49% atau sekitar +/-26.1 point. IHSG akan coba naik menguji resistance di 5,392 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 22, 2017) 5,358.68(+0.3%) Trading range 5,339-5,392 Average index performance (%) 5.42 Target
Period 373 - Daily 5,378
r-squared 0.8462 - Weekly 5,390
Volatility (+/-, %) 0.49 - Monthly 5,433 Volatility (+/-, point) 26.1 Stop loss 5,326 Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,392
^JKSE - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 5358.68, Hi 5360.41, Lo 5331.43, Close 5358.68 (0.3%) Upper Band = 5,718.76, Channel_prd = 5,509.54, Lower Band = 5,300.32, VWAP = 5,369.59, VWAP = 5,339.14, VWAP
5,358.68 5,339.14 5,326.95 5,300.32 5,369.59 5,509.54 5,718.76
Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 19,583,621,120.00, Avg.Volume = 18,157,506,560.00
19,583,621,120 18,157,506,560
Aliran dana masuk volatilitas indeks naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized akan menguji support trendline dan indikator RSI optimized cenderung naik dengan dukungan volume tembus rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat.
Resistance terdekat di 5,393. Sementara support terdekat di 5,339 dan stop loss level di 5,326.
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 15.43
15.427
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 47.33
47.3253
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,392
^JKSE - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 5358.68, Hi 5360.41, Lo 5331.43, Close 5358.68 (0.3%) VWAP = 5,326.95, VWAP = 5,369.59, VWAP = 5,339.14
5,358.68 5,339.14 5,326.95 5,369.59
19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 19,583,621,120.00, Avg.Volume = 18,157,506,560.00
19,583,621,120 18,157,506,560
IHSG akan coba bertahan sekitar rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat berikutnya resistance 2 pada periode masing-masing sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 3,4 dan 5.
Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,378 Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,390 Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,433
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 5358.68, Hi 5360.41, Lo 5331.43,
5,358.68 5,352.3 5,339.23 5,326.16 5,313.09 5,300.02 5,365.37 5,378.44 5,391.51 5,404.58
16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 19,583,621,120.00, Avg.Volume = 18,157,506,560.00
19,583,621,120 18,157,506,560
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Weekly 2/22/2017 Open 5358.55, Hi 5375.7, Lo 5331.43,
5,358.68 5,356.09 5,321.81 5,287.53 5,253.25 5,218.97 5,390.37 5,424.65 5,458.93 5,493.21
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 52,414,226,432.00, Avg.Volume = 61,178,163,200.00
52,414,226,432 61,178,163,200
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Monthly 2/22/2017 Open 5319.94, Hi 5418.38, Lo
5,358.68 5,353.62 5,274.04 5,194.45 5,114.86 5,035.28 5,433.21 5,512.8 5,592.38 5,671.97
2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 297,103,720,448.00, Avg.Volume = 158,060,298,240.00297,103,720,448
158,060,298,240
Stocks on our focus list
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) – Trading Buy.
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada trend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.76) selama 49 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.18 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 23.71 % (sekitar 17 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakkan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 2.0 atau sekitar +/- 16.29 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 1-20 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 6.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 22, 2017) 1,315(+0.8%) Trading range 1,255-1,380
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 27.01 Target
β (beta) 1.19 - Daily 1,340
Corelation 0.94 - Weekly 1,375
Period 49 - Monthly 1,410
r-squared 0.76 Stop loss 1,280
Volatility (+/-, %) 2.00
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 26.29
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
1,350 RALS.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 1300, Hi 1315, Lo 1270, Close 1315 (0.8%) Upper Band = 1,464.08, Channel_prd = 1,406.62, Lower Band = 1,349.15, Upper Band = 1,543.23, Channel_prd = 1,406.62, Lower
1,315
1,279.91 1,270 1,349.15 1,381.68 1,406.62 1,406.62 1,464.08 1,543.23
17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
RALS.JK - Volume = 1,221,100.00, Avg.Volume = 6,374,941.50
1,221,100 6,374,942
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 7, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R optimized masih cenderung naik mendekati resistance line namun volume masih di bawah rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat namun terbatas. Resistance terdekat di 1,350 Support terdekat di 1,280 yang sekaligus sebagai stop loss level..
Figure 7. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com RALS.JK - MFI Smoothed = 75.18
75.1832
RALS.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -82.36
-82.3595
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
1,350 RALS.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 1300, Hi 1315, Lo 1270, Close 1315 (0.8%) VWAP = 1,255.58, VWAP = 1,381.68, VWAP = 1,279.91
1,315 1,279.91 1,255.58 1,381.68
29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
RALS.JK - Volume = 1,221,100.00, Avg.Volume = 6,374,941.50
1,221,100 6,374,942
Harga akan coba naik mendekati resistance normal (resistance 2) pada masing- masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing- masing periode dengan target berikutnya ke resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode.
sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 8,9 dan 10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 1,340 Figure 9. Weekly, target : 1,375 Figure 10. Monthly, target : 1,410
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com RALS.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 1300, Hi 1315, Lo 1270,
1,315 1,313.14 1,300 1,286.86 1,273.71 1,260.57 1,247.43 1,326.29 1,339.43 1,352.57
16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
RALS.JK - Volume = 1,221,100.00, Avg.Volume = 6,374,941.50
1,221,100 6,374,942
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com RALS.JK - Weekly 2/22/2017 Open 1305, Hi 1350, Lo 1270,
1,315 1,310 1,277.45 1,244.91 1,212.36 1,179.81 1,342.55 1,375.09 1,407.64 1,440.19
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
RALS.JK - Volume = 15,262,100.00, Avg.Volume = 34,223,328.00
15,262,100 34,223,328
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com RALS.JK - Monthly 2/22/2017 Open 1350, Hi 1510, Lo 1270,
1,315 1,309.98 1,258.71 1,207.44 1,156.17 1,361.25 1,412.52 1,463.79 1,515.06 1,566.33
2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
RALS.JK - Volume = 105,843,104.00, Avg.Volume = 162,523,648.00
105,843,104 162,523,648
XL Axiata (EXCL) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel .
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.92) selama 47 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.73 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 8.39 % (sekitar 4 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/ 2.07 % atau sekitar +/- 67.76 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 70 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 11.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 22, 2017) 3,130 (+2.0%) Trading range 3,030-3,190 Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 1.25 Target
β (beta) 1.09 - Daily 3,160
Corelation (0.32) - Weekly 3,250
Period 47 - Monthly 3,460
r-squared 0.92 Stop loss 3,000
Volatility (+/-, %) 2.07
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 64.76
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
3,030 3,190 EXCL.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 3080, Hi 3150, Lo 3020, Close 3130 (2.0%) Upper Band = 3,358.90, Channel_prd = 3,203.40, Lower Band = 3,047.91, Upper Band = 3,408.37, Channel_prd = 3,203.40, Lower
3,130 3,110.03 3,047.91 2,998.44 2,954.14 3,203.4 3,203.4 3,358.9 3,408.37
14 21 28 Dec 5 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
EXCL.JK - Volume = 6,385,100.00, Avg.Volume = 7,704,489.00
6,385,100 7,704,489
Aliran dana kelura dan volatilitas harga turun mulai tertahan.
Pada Figure 12, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized akan menguj support trendline dengan volume sekitar rata-rata dengan kecenderungan menguat. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan lebih lanjut. Resistance terdekat di 3,190. Support saat ini di 3,3030. Stop loss level di 3,000.
Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com EXCL.JK - MFI Smoothed = 34.12
34.1222
EXCL.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -45.08
-45.0822
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
3,190
3,030 EXCL.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 3080, Hi 3150, Lo 3020, Close 3130 (2.0%) VWAP = 3,110.03, VWAP = 2,621.41, VWAP = 2,954.14
3,130 3,110.03 2,954.14
2,621.41
Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
EXCL.JK - Volume = 6,385,100.00, Avg.Volume = 7,704,489.00
6,385,100 7,704,489
Harga akan coba tembus resistance 2 periode masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar resistance 1 pada masing-masing periode dengan target berikutnya tembus resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 14,15 dan 16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 3,160 Figure 14. Weekly, target : 3,250 Figure 15. Monthly, target : 3,460 x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com EXCL.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 3080, Hi 3150, Lo 3020, Close
3,130 3,127.38 3,095 3,062.62 3,030.24 2,997.85 2,965.47 3,159.76 3,192.15 3,224.53
16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
EXCL.JK - Volume = 6,385,100.00, Avg.Volume = 7,704,489.00
6,385,100 7,704,489
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com EXCL.JK - Weekly 2/22/2017 Open 3150, Hi 3250, Lo 3020,
3,130 3,023.36 2,909.22 2,795.08 2,680.94 3,137.5 3,251.64 3,365.78 3,479.92 3,594.06
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
EXCL.JK - Volume = 22,068,200.00, Avg.Volume = 39,440,216.00
22,068,200 39,440,216
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com EXCL.JK - Monthly 2/22/2017 Open 2900, Hi 3250, Lo 2780,
3,130 3,015 2,793.86 2,572.72 2,351.58 2,130.44 3,236.14 3,457.28 3,678.42 3,899.56
2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 - Powered by AMTA EXCL.JK - Volume = 124,316,208.00, Avg.Volume = 195,504,912.00
124,316,208 195,504,912
Surya Citra Media (SCMA) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.79 selama 70 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.25 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 21.18 % (sekitar 15 bar chart ). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjang uptrend channel sebesar +/- 1.64 % atau sekitar +/-48.03 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 50 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 16.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 22 , 2017) 2.930(+3.2%) Trading range 2,870-2,980
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 3.66 Target
β (beta) 1.33 - Daily 2,980
Corelation (0.14) - Weekly 3,000
Period 70 - Monthly 3,120
r-squared 0.79 Stop loss 2,840
Volatility (+/-, %) 1.64
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 48.03
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,980
2,840 SCMA.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 2830, Hi 2950, Lo 2830, Close 2930 (3.2%) Upper Band = 3,129.61, Channel_prd = 3,001.07, Lower Band = 2,872.53, Upper Band = 3,238.97, Channel_prd = 3,001.07, Lower
2,930
2,872.53 2,869.82
2,763.17 3,001.07 3,001.07 3,129.61 3,238.97
10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
SCMA.JK - Volume = 12,916,900.00, Avg.Volume = 9,941,786.00
12,916,900 9,941,786
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih berlanjut.
Pada Figure 17, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized dan indikator W%R Optimized masih cenderung naik dengan tembus rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraan resistance terdekat ke 2,980 Support terdekat di 2,870. Stop loss level di 2,840.
Figure 17. Daily MFI Optimized & W%R Optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com SCMA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 43.66
43.6609
SCMA.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -50.92
-50.9205
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,980
2,840 SCMA.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 2830, Hi 2950, Lo 2830, Close 2930 (3.2%) VWAP = 2,869.82
2,930 2,869.82
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
SCMA.JK - Volume = 12,916,900.00, Avg.Volume = 9,941,786.00
12,916,900 9,941,786
Harga akan coba naik mendekati resistance 2 pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode dengan targetterdekat minimal resistance 2 sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 18,19 dan 20.
Figure 18. Daily, target : 2,980 Figure 19. Weekly, target : 3,000 Figure 20. Monthly, target : 3,120
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
analyzed by : Tasrul, tasrul@dwsec-id.com, +62-21- 5151140
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com SCMA.JK - Weekly 2/22/2017 Open 2820, Hi 2960, Lo 2800,
2,930 2,877.5 2,822.72 2,767.95 2,713.17 2,658.4 2,932.28 2,987.05 3,041.83 3,096.6
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
SCMA.JK - Volume = 33,521,700.00, Avg.Volume = 67,666,312.00
33,521,700 67,666,312
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com SCMA.JK - Monthly 2/22/2017 Open 2870, Hi 2990, Lo 2780,
2,930 2,892.5 2,780.22 2,667.95 2,555.67 2,443.39 3,004.78 3,117.05 3,229.33 3,341.61
2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
SCMA.JK - Volume = 146,375,696.00, Avg.Volume = 291,776,480.00
146,375,696 291,776,480
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com SCMA.JK - Daily 2/22/2017 Open 2830, Hi 2950, Lo 2830,
2,930 2,909.02 2,885 2,860.98 2,836.97 2,812.95 2,788.93 2,933.03 2,957.05 2,981.07
16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
SCMA.JK - Volume = 12,916,900.00, Avg.Volume = 9,941,786.00
12,916,900 9,941,786
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 24. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are Feb 20th, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 26. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 12,800
13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000
4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300 5,500
11/23 12/21 1/18 2/15
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.3
-0.4
2.1
15.1
-0.2
-1.4
-4.4
-11.8 -16
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
0
99
7 26
-20
-292 834
506
-99
94
-30
916
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
CPO WTI Coal
(
( (D-3M=100)
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
( ( ( (
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
Silver Gold Platinum
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,359 5,830,560 0.3 -0.4 2.0 13.8 15.5 13.6 2.3 2.1 17.9 15.9
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 15,500 382,153 0.0 0.0 1.6 17.6 17.0 15.0 3.0 2.6 18.9 18.5
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 11,300 263,667 1.3 -1.1 2.7 20.2 19.6 12.8 1.8 1.6 10.3 13.0
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 12,000 296,030 0.8 0.0 1.7 9.3 10.9 10.6 1.9 1.8 20.2 18.6
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 6,275 117,020 0.0 -0.4 15.1 25.5 9.1 8.9 1.2 1.2 13.9 14.4
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,240 23,722 4.2 10.3 18.5 52.9 12.9 11.2 1.2 1.1 10.1 10.6
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,850 447,825 1.3 0.0 0.5 -11.2 33.8 30.7 12.4 11.4 37.0 38.5
Gudang Garam GGRM 62,200 119,678 3.4 1.1 -0.5 -4.9 15.7 13.8 2.7 2.4 17.8 18.0
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,250 96,211 0.0 -2.4 -2.9 7.1 23.8 21.4 4.9 4.4 21.7 21.9
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,125 71,341 -0.3 1.9 0.9 19.0 16.2 14.2 2.2 2.0 14.1 15.0
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,495 70,078 2.4 1.4 -0.3 17.7 27.5 24.5 5.2 4.8 20.0 20.4
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 42,875 327,136 0.3 1.1 5.9 -1.2 45.4 40.1 56.5 52.8 131.0 138.5
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,775 28,437 -2.6 -5.4 -8.8 -13.0 15.1 13.2 1.7 1.5 11.2 11.8
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,510 10,303 -2.3 -5.0 -9.3 4.1 13.4 11.5 1.3 1.2 9.8 10.6
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,530 14,573 -6.1 -7.6 -3.2 -21.5 20.8 16.6 3.6 3.1 17.5 18.8
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,130 33,453 2.0 0.0 17.7 -18.6 60.8 78.4 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.5
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,730 34,330 1.3 -1.0 13.4 -12.6 15.6 18.6 2.3 2.3 15.7 12.3
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,690 65,210 0.0 -3.9 3.5 3.5 11.2 10.6 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.5
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,275 23,903 1.4 1.4 5.5 -10.2 18.5 15.9 7.6 5.4 47.1 39.3
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,880 391,104 0.0 0.5 1.3 22.6 16.8 15.2 4.0 3.7 24.1 24.4
Soechi Lines SOCI 290 2,047 -0.7 -5.2 -7.6 -37.4 3.6 N/A N/A N/A 11.3 N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 336 8,698 -2.3 -8.7 -0.6 -17.6 20.4 14.4 2.5 2.2 11.7 15.1
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,225 54,718 0.8 -1.3 7.0 -8.9 12.0 13.5 1.9 1.8 16.3 13.6
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,180 52,146 -0.9 -7.3 0.3 -5.5 15.2 12.5 3.0 2.6 21.2 21.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 15,650 57,611 -0.3 1.0 7.0 -19.8 15.7 14.7 2.0 1.9 13.5 14.1
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,875 21,395 -0.5 -2.1 16.1 140.4 11.2 9.0 2.1 1.7 21.2 20.4
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,325 18,446 -1.2 8.3 8.1 191.5 8.4 8.0 1.5 1.4 17.0 17.1
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,705 54,536 -0.9 3.6 -1.4 186.6 11.6 11.6 1.2 1.1 9.4 10.4
Aneka Tambang ANTM 785 18,864 -0.6 -1.9 -11.3 112.7 38.2 17.4 1.0 1.0 2.5 5.2
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,670 26,530 -2.6 -2.9 16.1 67.4 39.9 25.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 4.3
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 11,200 25,806 -0.4 2.5 -5.1 110.3 9.5 9.2 2.1 1.8 21.0 20.3
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 24,375 90,922 -0.4 5.9 10.8 55.0 16.0 14.8 2.1 1.9 13.3 13.4
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,350 25,348 3.3 -3.1 -2.3 -16.7 19.8 17.3 3.3 2.9 17.4 17.8
Global Mediacom BMTR 530 7,525 -1.9 -10.2 -15.9 -32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 14,750 43,039 1.9 -2.6 -0.8 -10.7 17.6 15.8 15.0 11.4 96.6 80.9
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,545 22,057 0.3 -3.1 -10.4 -2.8 11.8 10.4 2.0 1.8 17.3 17.8
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 1,220 6,561 -2.8 -7.2 -13.2 -31.7 33.8 27.2 2.3 2.2 6.3 7.9
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,930 42,841 3.2 2.1 10.2 4.5 23.7 20.5 10.4 9.0 46.9 46.9
Siloam International Hospital SILO 13,000 16,908 -2.3 -6.8 7.4 56.8 107.8 67.9 6.1 5.7 5.4 6.1
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,905 36,665 0.3 1.1 3.3 10.1 15.1 13.8 1.6 1.4 10.6 10.8
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,160 7,691 -1.4 -5.3 0.9 -16.9 23.6 12.4 1.4 1.2 5.9 10.5
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 378 7,427 0.5 -2.1 -5.5 6.2 8.7 6.4 1.0 0.9 10.9 12.7
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,385 25,706 0.0 -1.1 5.3 6.4 17.5 14.5 2.1 1.8 12.5 13.0
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 770 17,770 0.0 2.0 5.5 -25.2 15.4 13.8 0.9 0.9 6.6 6.9
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,540 21,948 1.1 -4.6 -1.1 -1.7 23.1 15.4 2.4 2.2 14.4 17.5
Pakuwon Jati PWON 595 28,655 4.4 4.4 1.7 29.1 13.9 11.4 2.7 2.2 20.5 20.9
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,425 20,558 1.8 0.4 5.2 -8.7 41.8 32.4 3.1 2.9 7.6 9.6
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,480 22,245 0.0 -1.2 0.0 1.1 18.5 14.7 1.8 1.6 11.9 12.6
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,470 33,527 -3.5 -4.3 -5.7 28.0 17.3 15.2 3.1 2.1 16.6 16.0
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 7,975 322,856 0.6 -1.2 -0.3 18.1 16.9 15.2 2.7 2.4 15.8 16.0
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,834.4 -1.8 CTRS IJ 2710 5,510 N/A
Mining 1,420.9 0.1 BUMI IJ 368 13,479 25.17
Basic-Industry 564.5 -0.3 PNBN IJ 935 22,522 5.06
Miscellaneous Industry 1,338.3 0.6 PWON IJ 595 28,655 4.39
Consumer Goods 2,355.2 0.8 BBTN IJ 2240 23,722 4.2
Property & Construction 520.0 0.1 INKP IJ 1155 6,319 3.6
Infrastructure 1,060.1 0.2 GGRM IJ 62200 119,678 3.41
Finance 830.3 0.4 AKRA IJ 6350 25,348 3.25
Trade 855.5 0.3 SCMA IJ 2930 42,841 3.17
Composite 5,358.7 0.3 BNLI IJ 700 15,638 2.94
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
HMSP IJ 1.3 3,850 GEMS IJ -10.0 2,610
GGRM IJ 3.4 62,200 BNGA IJ -5.1 1,015
BMRI IJ 1.4 11,300 WSKT IJ -3.5 2,470
BUMI IJ 25.2 368 EMTK IJ -2.4 8,300
BBRI IJ 0.8 12,000 SSMS IJ -6.1 1,530
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
2:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 10.3 10.2
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.7%
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 1.45|2.3
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 5 -8
8:30am CAD Corporate Profits q/q 14.0%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 242K 239K
9:00am USD HPI m/m 0.4% 0.5%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -114B
11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories 9.5M
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
5:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
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