6
Daewoo Securities Indonesia
Equity Tower Building 50
thFloor Suite A Sudirman Central Business Distric (SCBD) Lot.9 Jl.Jend.Sudirman Kav. 52-53, Jakarta Selatan 12190
DAEWOO INDONESIA Embun Pagi (Dec 13, 2016)
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,308.13 (+0.08%) EIDO: 24.33 (-0.86%)
FTSE100: 6,890.42 (-0.92%)
USD/IDR: 13,331 (+0.09%)
10yr GB yield: 7.66% (+12 bps) Oil Price: 52.83 (+2.58%)
Stock Watch
DOID (Trading Buy), HRUM (Trading Buy), INDY (Trading Buy)
TOP BUY: BMRI, HMSP, PGAS, BBRI, JSMR TOP SELL: BBCA, ASII, BJBR, UNVR, WSKT
Foreign Net Purchase: -IDR54.2bn
Foreign Most Active: TLKM, ASII, BBCA, MYRX, BBRI
Andy Wibowo Gunawan +62-21-515-1140 andy.wibowo@dwsec-id.com To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at research@dwsec-id.com
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Indonesia’s natural gas reserves mapping
Source: ESDM, Daewoo Securities Research
Embun Pagi
Dec 13, 2016
The bright little king
Rukun Raharja (RAJA) adalah salah satu perusahaan infrastruktur gas di Indonesia, yang memiliki bisnis tiga unit, seperti infrastruktur gas, perdagangan gas, dan juga pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas. Setelah, sepenuhnya beroperasi dan pengembangan pipa gas di Sei Gelam dan Gresik, manajemen memprediksi bahwa laba bersih 2017F melompat ganda ke USD6.3 juta, dari USD3.2 juta di 2016F.
Selanjutnya, RAJA akan mendiversifikasi usahanya ke pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas dalam jangka panjang di mana produksi listrik Indonesia dari gas akan memberikan kontribusi 20,9% dari total produksi listrik Indonesia pada tahun 2025.
Sei Gelam and Gresik gas pipe is fully operating
Menurut manajemen, pengembangan pipa gas, yang terletak di Sei Gelam dan Gresik akan beroperasi secara penuh di 4Q16. Sebelumnya, pengembangan Sei Gelam dan Gresik pipa gas telah tertunda selama delapan bulan, sehingga, RAJA kehilangan pendapatan USD300.000/bulan.
Earnings & profitability margin look bright in 2017F
Laba bersih RAJA akan mencapai masing-masing USD3.2 juta dan USD6.3 juta di 2016F dan 2017F. Mengingat bahwa target laba bersih di 2016F dan 2017F, manajemen memprediksi bahwa ROE mencapai masing-masing 4,8% dan 8,6% di 2016F dan 2017F.
Potentially win Java Bali 4 Peaker gas-fired power plant
Kami optimistis RAJA bisa mendapatkan proyek pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas ini didukung oleh distribusi gas sepenuhnya beroperasi di Selai Gam dan Gresik.
Trades at 0.8x of PBV
Saat ini, RAJA adalah diperdagangkan 0,8x dari PBV, atau sedikit di bawah dibandingkan dengan 5-tahun-rata PBV di 1,0x.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,308.1 0.1 1.4 20.7
MSCI Indonesia 24.3 -0.9 5.0 27.1
MSCI EM 872.2 -0.6 3.4 13.5
HANG SENG 22,433.0 -1.4 1.0 6.0
KOSPI 2,027.2 -0.1 2.2 4.0
FTSE 6,890.4 -0.9 3.3 16.8
DJIA 19,796.4 0.2 4.8 14.4
NASDAQ 5,412.5 -0.6 4.0 10.4
Valuation
2016F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 17.6 2.4 17.4
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 -25 -25 N/A
3yr 7.37 -8 46 -111
10yr 7.54 -16 18 -99
*since introduced in Aug 2016
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,331.00 0.1 -0.4 -5.7
USD/KRW 1,168.27 0.2 -0.3 -1.4
USD/JPY 115.02 -0.3 6.1 -5.0
USD/CNY 6.91 0.2 0.7 6.9
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 52.8 2.6 19.7 17.5
Gold 1,162.2 0.2 -4.8 9.7
Coal 85.7 -1.3 -22.0 64.0
Palm Oil 705.0 0.0 5.0 21.3
Rubber 166.4 0.0 15.7 65.6
Nickel 11,470.0 3.3 2.3 31.9
Copper 5,826.0 0.8 5.0 23.9
Tin 21,025.0 0.5 -2.2 43.3
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
12/13 09/14 06/15 02/16 11/16
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
2
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Daewoo cartoon
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 3
Local flashes
BUMI: Batu bara melesat, Bumi Resources kini laba US$73 juta. PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) kini membukukan laba bersih senilai US$73,04 juta pada kuartal III/2016 dari periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya rugi US$627,99 juta. Berdasarkan laporan keuangan yang dirilis Jumat (9/12/2016), disebutkan pendapatan perseroan terkoreksi 46,04% menjadi US$18,07 juta. Padahal, selama periode Januari-September 2015, perseroan mampu meraup pendapatan US$33,49 juta. (Bisnis Indonesia)
BJBR: BJB jaga NPL di level 1,7% per November. PT Bank Jawa Barat Banten Tbk (BJB)mencatatkan angka Non Performming Loan (NPL) masih berada di kisaran 1,7%
hingga November 2016. Direktur Konsumer BJB Fermiyanti mengatakan, salah satu strategi yang dilakukan guna menekan laju NPL antara lain dengan memasuki pasar yang selektif yang sesuai dengan target pasar BJB. Meski saat ini angka NPL di BJB masih relatif rendah pihaknya tetap akan mendorong kinerja perseroan agar lebih positif. (Kontan)
WTON: Wika Beton lampaui target kontrak di 2016. PT Wika Beton Tbk mampu lampaui target kontrak baru tahun ini. Hingga pertengahan Desember ini, perusahaan telah mengantongi kontrak anyar senilai Rp 6 triliun. Pencapaian tersebut lebih tinggi Rp 1,7 triliun dari target yang telah mereka tetapkan sejak awal yakni Rp 4,3 triliun.
Emiten berkode WTON ini berhasil melampaui target lantaran sudah masuk bisnis beton curah (ready mix) sejak memasuki kuartal IV. (Kontan)
MYOR: Mayora Indah raih penjualan Rp13,31 triliun per September 2016. PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) meraih penjualan bersih Rp13,31 triliun per September 2016 dibandingkan penjualan bersih periode sama tahun sebelumnya yang Rp10,69 triliun.
Laporan keuangan perseroan menyebutkan beban pokok penjualan naik jadi Rp9,78 triliun dibandingkan beban pokok penjualan periode tahun sebelumnya yang Rp7,63 triliun. Laba bersih naik menjadi Rp897,85 miliar dibandingkan laba bersih Rp870,14 miliar. (Iqplus)
HRUM: Harum Energy siapkan US$ 27 juta untuk buyback. Rencana PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM) untuk pembelian saham kembali (buyback) disetujui di rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS) pada Jumat (9/12). Pembelian saham kembali akan dilakukan pada 13 Desember 2016 sampai 18 bulan kemudian. Harum Energy mengalokasikan dana sebesar US$ 27 juta atau Rp 352,56 miliar. Langkah ini bukanlah yang pertama kalinya. Pada periode 1 Juni 2015 sampai 30 November 2016 juga telah dilakukan hal yang sama. (Kontan)
APLN: Simfoni Gema lepas seluruh saham di APLN ke Indofica. PT Simfoni Gema Lestari melepas seluruh kepemilikan sahamnya dalam PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk.
(APLN) kepada PT Indofica. Indofica ialah pemegang saham terbesar APLN. Per 30 November 2016, Indofica memiliki 69,83% saham dalam APLN. Jumlah saham yang dialihkan Simfoni Gema Lestari kepada Indofica sebanyak 1,04 miliar saham atau 5,073%
saham di harga transaksi Rp282 per saham. Maka, nilai penjualan sebesar Rp293,28 miliar. (Bisnis Indonesia)
MYRX: 2017, Hanson International rancang capex Rp500 miliar. PT Hanson International Tbk. siap mengalokasikan belanja modal senilai Rp500 miliar untuk meningkatkan jumlah lahan. Direktur Hanson International Adnan Tabrani menuturkan capital expenditures (capex) pada tahun depan akan digunakan untuk membeli lahan yang ada di Maja dan Serpong. Dia menuturkan untuk dua tempat tersebut ditargetkan akan ada lahan baru hingga 100 ha secara bertahap. (Bisnis Indonesia)
4
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 tasrul@dwsec-id.com
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Limited Upside
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band angka panjang pada uptrend channel.
IHSG saat masih dalam pola
uptrend
relatif valid yang dimulai sejak selama 322 hari terakhir denganr-squared
= 0.8628 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.49 std.deviasi daricenterline
. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 13.72 % atau sekitar 44bar chart
. Volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar +/-0.54% atau sekitar +/-28.6point
. IHSG akan coba bertahan diatasnormal lower band
jangka panjang padauptrend channel
sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 9 , 2016) 5,308.13(+0.1%) Trading range 5,271-5,328
Average index performance (%) 6.41 Target
Period 322 - Daily 5,328
r-squared 0.8628 - Weekly 5,345
Volatility (+/-, %) 0.54 - Monthly 5,410
Volatility (+/-, point) 28.6 Stop loss 5,249
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,328 5,271
^JKSE - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 5297.55, Hi 5308.13, Lo 5284.77, Close 5308.13 (0.1%) Upper Band = 5,654.93, Channel_prd = 5,452.18, Lower Band = 5,249.44, Upper Band = 5,790.97, Channel_prd
5,308.13 5,249.44 5,220.14 5,200.89 5,113.4 5,104.01 5,318.42 5,452.18 5,452.18 5,654.93 5,790.97
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 5,273,149,952.00, Avg.Volume = 8,753,108,992.00
5,273,149,952 8,753,108,992
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 5
Aliran dana keluar untuk sementara akan tertahan namun volatilitas indeks naik juga terbatas.
Pada
Figure 2
, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikatorMFI optimized
akan mengujisupport trendline
dan indikatorW%R optimized
sudah beradasekitar resistance trendline
dengan volume masih di bawah rata-rata, dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan akan relatif tertahan.Resistance
terdekat di 5,328.Sementarasupport
di 5,271. Stoploss level
di 5,249.Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & W%R optimized
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 81.87
81.8747
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -1.18 -1.18305
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,328 5,271
^JKSE - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 5297.55, Hi 5308.13, Lo 5284.77, Close 5308.13 (0.1%) VWAP = 5,104.01, VWAP = 5,220.14, VWAP = 5,318.42, VWAP = 5,200.89
5,308.13
5,220.14 5,200.89 5,104.01 5,318.42
Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 5,273,149,952.00, Avg.Volume = 8,753,108,992.00
5,273,149,952 8,753,108,992
6
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut IHSG saat ini harus mampu bertahan minimal diatas masing-masing periode dengan target terdekat normal berikutnya ke
resistance
2 pada masing-masing periodesebagaimana terlihat padaFigure
3,4 dan 5.Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,328 Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,345 Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,410
x
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 5297.55, Hi 5308.13, Lo 5284.77,
5,308.13 5,299.64 5,285.33 5,271.03 5,256.72 5,242.41 5,313.95 5,328.26 5,342.56 5,356.87
Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 5,273,149,952.00, Avg.Volume = 8,753,108,992.00
5,273,149,952 8,753,108,992
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Weekly 12/9/2016 Open 5239.9, Hi 5308.13, Lo 5229.8,
5,308.13 5,271.49 5,234.54 5,197.59 5,160.65 5,123.7 5,308.43 5,345.38 5,382.33 5,419.27
Apr Jul Oct
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 32,320,927,744.00, Avg.Volume = 43,904,061,440.00
32,320,927,744 43,904,061,440
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Monthly 12/9/2016 Open 5168.63, Hi 5308.13, Lo
5,308.13 5,238.24 5,152.16 5,066.08 4,980.01 4,893.93 5,324.32 5,410.39 5,496.47 5,582.55
2014 2015 2016
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 51,232,243,712.00, Avg.Volume = 118,067,601,408.00
51,232,243,712 118,067,601,408
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 7
Stocks on our focus list
Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati centerline pada uptrend channel .
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola
uptrend
jangka pendek yang masih relatif valid (r-squared
= 0.8014) selama 74 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.28 std.deviasi daricenter line.
Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 20 % (sekitar 15bar chart
). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjanguptrend channel
sebesar +/- 3.30 % atau sekitar +/- 17.48.(potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 15-20 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba mendekati
centerline
padauptrend channel
sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 6
.Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 9, 2016) 530(+1.0%) Trading range 515-565
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) -0.09 Target
β (beta) 4.47 - Daily 550
Corelation 0.64 - Weekly 565
Period 74 - Monthly 600
r-squared 0.8014 Stop loss 505
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.30
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 17.48
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Figure 6. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
515 550 565 DOID.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 530, Hi 545, Lo 525, Close 530 (1.0%) Upper Band = 644.84, Channel_prd = 574.16, Lower Band = 503.48, VWAP = 466.72, VWAP = 529.39
530 529.392 503.475 466.719 574.156 644.836
25 Aug 8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
DOID.JK - Volume = 43,424,700.00, Avg.Volume = 55,959,088.00
43,424,700 55,959,088
8
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada
Figure 7
, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikatorMFI
optimized masih dan indikatorW%R optimized
masih cenderung naik akan mengujiresistance trendline
namun volume masih di bawah rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat namun relatif terbatas.Resistance
terdekat 550 sebelum ke 565.Support
terdekat di 515 danstop loss level
di 505..Figure 7. Daily, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com DOID.JK - MFI Smoothed = 86.21
86.21
DOID.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -52.77
-52.772
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
515 550 565 DOID.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 530, Hi 545, Lo 525, Close 530 (1.0%) VWAP = 466.72, VWAP = 529.39
530 529.392 466.719
18 25 Aug 8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
DOID.JK - Volume = 43,424,700.00, Avg.Volume = 55,959,088.00
43,424,700 55,959,088
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 9
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan sekitar rata-rata masing-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing- masing periode dengan target minimal kenaikkanke
resistance
2, sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 8,9
dan10.
Figure 8. Daily ,target : 550 Figure 9. Weekly, target : 565 Figure 10. Monthly, target : 600
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com DOID.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 530, Hi 545, Lo 525, Close
530 523.762 515.025 506.287 497.55 532.5 541.238 549.975 558.713 567.45
Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
DOID.JK - Volume = 43,424,700.00, Avg.Volume = 55,959,088.00
43,424,700 55,959,088
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com DOID.JK - Weekly 12/9/2016 Open 520, Hi 565, Lo 510,
530 514.119 496.987 479.856 462.724 531.25 548.381 565.513 582.644 599.776
Apr Jul Oct
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
DOID.JK - Volume = 344,946,080.00, Avg.Volume = 639,389,248.00
344,946,080 639,389,248
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com DOID.JK - Monthly 12/9/2016 Open 520, Hi 565, Lo 505,
530 495.076 460.153 425.229 390.306 530 564.924 599.847 634.771 669.694
2014 2015 2016
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
DOID.JK - Volume = 403,217,376.00, Avg.Volume = 1,870,248,704.00
403,217,376 1,870,248,704
10
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Harum Energy (HRUM) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola
uptrend
yang masih relatif valid (r-squared
= 0,8513) selama 73 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.44 std.deviasi daricenter line.
Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 14.87 % (sekitar 11bar chart
). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjanguptrend channel
sebesar +/ 3.87 % atau sekitar +/-90.10 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 90 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Saat ini harga akan coba bertahan diatasnormal lower band
padauptrend channel
sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 11.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 9, 2016) 2,330(+1.7%) Trading range 2,300-2,450
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 0.81 Target
β (beta) 2.73 - Daily 2,450
Corelation 0.50 - Weekly 2,490
Period 73 - Monthly 2,730
r-squared 0.8513 Stop loss 2,270
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.87 Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 90.10 Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Figure 11. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,450
2,270 HRUM.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 2330, Hi 2460, Lo 2320, Close 2330 (1.7%) Upper Band = 2,969.80, Channel_prd = 2,638.71, Lower Band = 2,307.62, VWAP = 2,177.14, VWAP = 2,332.34
2,330 2,307.62 2,177.14 2,332.34 2,638.71 2,969.8
18 25 Aug 8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 12,713,000.00, Avg.Volume = 10,060,229.00
12,713,000 10,060,229
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 11
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada
Figure 12
, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikatorMFI
Optimized dan indicator RSIOptimized
masih cenderung naik dengan volume tembus rata-rata. Hal ini mengindikasikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat.Resistance
terdekat di 2,450.Support
saat ini di 2,300 danstop loss level
di 2,270.Figure 12. Daily, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - MFI Smoothed = 56.79
56.7911
HRUM.JK - RSI Smoothed = 50.81
50.8075
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
2,450
2,270 HRUM.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 2330, Hi 2460, Lo 2320, Close 2330 (1.7%) VWAP = 1,833.38, VWAP = 2,177.14
2,330 2,177.14
1,833.38
8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 12,713,000.00, Avg.Volume = 10,060,229.00
12,713,000 10,060,229
12
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing- masing periode atau sekitar level 2,300-2,360 dengan target minimal kenaikkan ke
resistance
2, sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 14,15
dan16.
Figure 13. Daily, target : 2,450 Figure 14. Weekly, target : 2,490 Figure 15. Monthly, target : 2,730 x
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 2330, Hi 2460, Lo 2320,
2,330 2,314.95 2,269.9 2,224.86 2,179.81 2,360 2,405.05 2,450.1 2,495.14 2,540.19
Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 12,713,000.00, Avg.Volume = 10,060,229.00
12,713,000 10,060,229
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Weekly 12/9/2016 Open 2220, Hi 2490, Lo 2220,
2,330 2,315 2,228.27 2,141.55 2,054.82 1,968.09 2,401.73 2,488.45 2,575.18 2,661.91
Apr Jul Oct
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 56,225,800.00, Avg.Volume = 112,069,032.00
56,225,800 112,069,032
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com HRUM.JK - Monthly 12/9/2016 Open 2210, Hi 2490, Lo 2160,
2,330 2,297.5 2,079.9 1,862.31 1,644.71 1,427.11 2,515.1 2,732.69 2,950.29 3,167.89
2014 2015 2016
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
HRUM.JK - Volume = 70,421,600.00, Avg.Volume = 149,384,320.00
70,421,600 149,384,320
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 13
Indika Energy (INDY) – Trading Buy
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola
uptrend
yang masih relatif valid (r-squared
= 0,7232) selama 64 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.49 std.deviasi daricenterline.
Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 27.68 % (sekitar 18bar chart
). Volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saham ini sepanjanguptrend channel
sebesar +/- 3.34 % atau sekitar +/ 26.85 (potensi naik dan turun secara normal maksimum/minimum sebesar 25-30 rupiah) dari level penutupan terakhir. Harga akan coba bertahan diatasnormal lower band
padauptrend channel,
sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 16.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Dec 9, 2016) 805(+1.3%) Trading range 800-850
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) -0.79 Target
β (beta) 3.43 - Daily 835
Corelation 0.47 - Weekly 875
Period 64 - Monthly 1,000
r-squared 0.7232 Stop loss 780
Volatility (+/-, %) 3.34 Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 26.85 Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Figure 16. Daily Trend - Uptrend
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
835
780 INDY.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 800, Hi 830, Lo 800, Close 805 (1.3%) Upper Band = 900.16, Channel_prd = 849.26, Lower Band = 798.36, VWAP = 852.41, VWAP = 811.76
805 798.356 811.76 849.26 852.41 900.163
8 15 22 29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDY.JK - Volume = 12,292,000.00, Avg.Volume = 11,362,375.00
12,292,000 11,362,375
14
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat .
Pada
Figure 17
, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikatorMFI Optimized
danindikatorRSI Optimized
saat ini masih cenderung naik dengan volume sekitar rata-rata. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraanresistance
terdekat ke 835 sebelaum lanjut ke 850.Support
terdekat di 780 yang sekaligus sebagaistop loss level.
Figure 17. Daily MFI Optimized & RSI Optimized
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com INDY.JK - MFI Smoothed = 35.66
35.6608
INDY.JK - RSI Smoothed = 46.36
46.357
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
835
780 INDY.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 800, Hi 830, Lo 800, Close 805 (1.3%) VWAP = 852.41, VWAP = 811.76
805 811.76 852.41
29 Sep 13 19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31 Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDY.JK - Volume = 12,292,000.00, Avg.Volume = 11,362,375.00
12,292,000 11,362,375
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 15
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata-masing periode.
Untuk naik lebih lanjut harga harus mampu bertahan minimal sekitar rata-rata masing- masing periode atau sekitar level 805-815 dengan target minimal kenaikkan ke
resistance
2, sebagaimana terlihat padaFigure 18,19
dan20.
Figure 18. Daily, target : 835 Figure 19. Weekly, target : 875 Figure 20. Monthly, target : 1,000
Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
analyzed by : Tasrul, tasrul@dwsec-id.com, +62-21- 5151140
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama Harga saham bergerak
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area.
Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area.
BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana Volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area.
SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area.
Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relative tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com INDY.JK - Daily 12/9/2016 Open 800, Hi 830, Lo 800, Close
805 795.324 781.897 768.471 755.045 808.75 822.176 835.603 849.029 862.455
Nov Dec
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDY.JK - Volume = 12,292,000.00, Avg.Volume = 11,362,375.00
12,292,000 11,362,375
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com INDY.JK - Weekly 12/9/2016 Open 805, Hi 850, Lo 795, Close
805 783.268 752.786 722.303 691.821 813.75 844.232 874.714 905.197 935.679
Apr Jul Oct
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDY.JK - Volume = 63,739,200.00, Avg.Volume = 120,198,312.00
63,739,200 120,198,312
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com INDY.JK - Monthly 12/9/2016 Open 790, Hi 850, Lo 785,
805 709.694 611.889
514.083 416.278 807.5 905.306 1,003.11 1,100.92 1,198.72
2014 2015 2016
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
INDY.JK - Volume = 82,437,600.00, Avg.Volume = 388,675,968.00
82,437,600 388,675,968
16
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 21. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 22. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 23. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 24. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are Dec, 8th
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Chart 25. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 26. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 12,800
13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000
4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300 5,500 5,700
9/12 10/10 11/7 12/5
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.1 1.2 1.5
20.8
0.7
-1.0 -1.3
8.1
-4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
78
-10 -4
10
-9 110 392
897
-169 70
-17
134
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170
9/16 9/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16
CPO WTI Coal
(
( (D-3M=100)
90 100 110 120 130
9/16 9/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
( (
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
9/16 9/16 10/16 10/16 11/16 11/16 12/16
Silver Gold Platinum
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 17 Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,308 5,748,177 0.1 1.2 -2.0 18.9 17.6 14.7 2.4 2.2 17.4 21.0
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 14,700 362,429 0.0 0.2 -3.9 12.9 16.3 14.6 2.9 2.5 18.8 18.1
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 10,975 256,083 0.2 2.6 -3.3 21.9 12.1 10.3 1.6 1.4 13.6 14.3
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 11,475 283,079 -0.2 1.5 -8.9 5.3 9.8 8.8 1.8 1.6 19.1 18.7
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 5,475 102,101 0.9 3.3 -1.8 9.6 8.1 6.9 1.1 1.0 13.8 14.6
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 1,730 18,321 -2.5 3.6 -8.0 35.2 8.9 7.8 0.8 0.8 9.8 10.2
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,980 462,946 0.0 2.6 -1.5 3.6 35.1 31.6 12.6 11.5 36.7 38.2
Gudang Garam GGRM 66,950 128,818 -0.8 0.9 -0.4 30.8 16.8 14.6 2.9 2.6 17.8 18.2
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,850 103,208 0.0 1.1 -6.3 45.4 25.3 22.5 5.3 4.7 21.6 21.7
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,050 70,682 -0.6 8.1 -1.8 58.6 15.9 13.9 2.2 2.0 14.4 15.1
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,575 73,828 -0.6 2.3 -7.9 26.5 28.7 25.8 5.6 5.1 20.1 20.7
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 41,450 316,264 0.0 -2.2 -6.6 18.1 43.9 38.6 54.1 50.0 130.3 137.4
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 17,450 33,586 -0.7 0.9 15.4 4.9 18.2 15.0 1.9 1.8 10.8 11.8
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,750 11,940 -0.6 -2.8 21.1 28.7 16.8 14.7 1.5 1.4 8.8 9.5
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,380 13,145 3.0 0.4 -6.4 -16.6 15.9 11.0 3.2 2.7 21.3 22.0
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 2,380 25,437 0.0 5.3 -4.8 -39.8 35.8 19.4 1.2 1.1 2.0 4.0
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,360 29,975 -0.5 2.3 -3.7 -8.1 17.6 18.3 2.2 2.0 12.3 11.5
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,840 68,846 0.0 4.8 14.5 8.6 12.6 11.9 1.5 1.4 12.2 11.7
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,375 25,781 -0.5 2.9 -8.5 -9.3 16.9 14.4 6.4 4.8 42.4 37.1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,960 399,168 0.5 1.3 -3.9 31.9 17.0 15.5 4.1 3.7 24.1 24.5
Soechi Lines SOCI 374 2,640 -3.6 -4.6 -9.7 -9.2 5.6 N/A N/A N/A 10.9 N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 376 9,727 -1.1 2.7 6.2 19.0 18.5 13.1 2.3 2.0 11.6 15.0
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,300 55,163 1.1 0.5 0.8 -15.3 13.1 12.4 1.8 1.6 14.0 13.6
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,160 51,818 0.3 1.0 -12.0 10.9 14.5 12.3 3.0 2.6 21.5 21.7
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 16,250 59,820 1.7 4.3 1.6 -17.9 15.8 14.6 2.1 1.9 13.6 13.9
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,650 18,827 -0.6 4.8 -11.3 265.0 9.7 7.9 1.9 1.6 21.6 20.9
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,550 18,700 -0.6 -2.5 3.9 159.6 9.1 8.7 1.5 1.5 15.9 15.9
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,680 53,736 1.8 0.9 7.0 242.9 11.5 11.5 1.2 1.2 9.4 10.1
Aneka Tambang ANTM 945 22,709 -0.5 -2.1 6.2 202.9 1,666.7 24.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 5.2
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,310 32,889 2.2 -2.1 9.6 116.3 62.2 27.7 1.3 1.3 2.2 4.5
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 12,700 29,262 0.8 3.3 -1.4 162.9 10.8 11.1 2.3 2.0 20.5 18.8
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 22,800 85,047 0.9 -0.8 0.3 50.0 15.6 14.3 2.0 1.8 12.8 13.1
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,400 25,547 0.8 -0.8 -7.9 -10.5 20.0 17.5 3.3 3.0 17.3 17.6
Global Mediacom BMTR 590 8,377 -1.7 -4.8 -26.7 -24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 15,400 44,936 -1.9 3.0 -7.8 -5.7 18.3 16.5 15.6 12.2 99.6 82.4
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,810 25,840 0.6 4.3 -8.4 2.0 13.4 11.7 2.3 2.1 18.1 18.8
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 1,700 9,143 -1.7 -0.9 -0.6 -2.9 27.6 30.8 3.1 2.9 8.6 9.3
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,540 37,139 0.0 -1.6 2.4 -16.3 20.5 18.0 8.9 7.8 46.4 46.3
Siloam International Hospital SILO 10,250 12,013 -0.7 -4.7 0.6 7.7 82.4 48.9 5.1 4.6 6.2 6.7
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,815 34,933 -1.1 0.3 -12.3 9.7 13.8 12.5 1.5 1.4 11.1 11.3
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,180 7,763 -0.5 15.0 0.9 0.5 12.0 8.9 1.2 1.1 10.7 13.0
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 390 7,663 -1.0 3.2 -6.3 16.1 8.6 5.9 1.0 0.9 11.6 14.7
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,415 21,827 0.4 3.7 -11.6 10.8 17.3 13.9 2.1 1.9 13.2 13.9
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 755 17,424 -1.3 -1.3 -14.7 -37.9 13.6 12.4 1.0 0.9 8.0 7.8
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,970 20,236 -0.5 1.5 4.2 11.4 17.0 13.2 2.9 2.5 19.9 21.1
Pakuwon Jati PWON 645 31,063 0.0 -4.4 -8.5 39.6 14.7 12.0 2.9 2.4 21.2 21.6
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,480 21,352 -1.0 3.9 1.0 -6.3 37.2 29.9 3.0 2.9 9.0 11.3
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,510 22,515 -2.3 2.4 2.3 -0.9 18.4 14.6 2.2 2.0 13.0 14.5
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,570 34,884 -0.8 2.4 4.9 56.7 17.4 13.3 2.4 2.0 16.2 17.3
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 7,825 316,784 0.3 -0.3 -5.2 26.2 16.7 15.1 2.6 2.4 15.6 15.7
Source: Bloomberg, Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
18
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,879.1 0.6 NISP IJ 1900 21,798 16.92
Mining 1,424.8 0.9 KPIG IJ 1495 10,302 13.26
Basic-Industry 548.1 0.3 BWPT IJ 232 7,314 10.48
Miscellaneous Industry 1,311.6 0.4 SMCB IJ 970 7,433 6.01
Consumer Goods 2,411.8 -0.2 GEMS IJ 2600 15,294 4.0
Property & Construction 536.2 -0.6 SSMS IJ 1380 13,145 2.99
Infrastructure 1,065.8 0.5 RMBA IJ 484 17,618 2.98
Finance 783.4 0.0 DSNG IJ 700 7,420 2.94
Trade 851.4 0.1 TOWR IJ 3600 36,731 2.9
Composite 5,308.1 0.1 HITS IJ 750 5,326 2.74
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
NISP IJ 16.9 1,900 BJBR IJ -9.5 2,200
TLKM IJ 0.5 3,960 GGRM IJ -0.8 66,950
KPIG IJ 13.3 1,495 LPPF IJ -1.9 15,400
TOWR IJ 2.9 3,600 BBRI IJ -0.2 11,475
INTP IJ 1.7 16,250 BTPN IJ -3.6 2,680
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
1:01am USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.02|2.2
2:00am USD Federal Budget Balance -44.2B
4:45am NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 2.2%
7:30am AUD HPI q/q 2.0%
7:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 4
9:00am CNY Industrial Production y/y 6.1%
9:00am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 8.3%
9:00am CNY Retail Sales y/y 10.0%
2:00pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.1%
4:00pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.8%
4:30pm GBP CPI y/y 0.9%
4:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 4.6%
4:30pm GBP RPI y/y 2.0%
4:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 1.2%
4:30pm GBP HPI y/y 7.7%
4:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.6%
5:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 13.8
5:00pm EUR Employment Change q/q 0.4%
5:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 15.8
6:00pm USD NFIB Small Business Index 94.9
8:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.5%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Daewoo Securities Indonesia Research 19 Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securit ies Indonesia (DWS). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sour ces which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS an d/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or l iability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any clai ms, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia 2015.