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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
INTP’s domestic cement sales (historical January)
Source: Company data, ASI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Februari 28, 2018
INTP: At a crossroads
FY17 preview: Underperformance, as expected
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP) membukukan volume penjualan semen domestik sebesar 16.8mn ton (+4.2% YoY), lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan industri (+7.6% YoY). Untuk preview FY17, kami merevisi proyeksi pendapatan FY17 kami sebesar 2.6% menjadi IDR14.7tr (dari IDR15.1tr) dan perkiraan laba bersih kami sebesar 4.7% menjadi IDR1.81tr (dari IDR2.01tr). Untuk 4Q17, kami memperkirakan pendapatan dan laba bersih INTP masing-masing sebesar IDR4.2tr (+4.8% YoY, +6.0% QoQ) dan IDR505.9bn (-30.0% YoY, + 0.3% QoQ).
Exceptional volume growth in January 2018 due to low base in 2017
Pada Januari 2018, volume penjualan semen domestik INTP tumbuh 11.4% YoY dan 0.1% MoM menjadi 1.5mn ton, melampaui pertumbuhan domestik industri (+10.1% YoY menjadi 5.7mn ton). Menurut kami hal tersebut dikarenakan: 1) low base di Januari 2017, dan 2) pertumbuhan yang lebih baik di wilayah home market INTP.
Risks still linger despite improved volume growth
Meskipun pertumbuhan volume kuat di bulan Januari, kami menurunkan proyeksi pendapatan FY18 dan FY19 masing-masing sebesar 3.7% dan 5.8%, terutama karena pandangan konservatif kami mengenai kemungkinan pemulihan ASP.
Maintain Sell recommendation
Meskipun pemulihan pertumbuhan konsumsi semen nasional mulai terlihat, oversupply masih menjadi concern. Saham INTP saat ini diperdagangkan di lebih dari 3SD (sekitar 39x trailing P/E) di atas rata-rata lima tahun trailing P/E mereka di 18.3x. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Sell kami di INTP, namun menaikkan TP menjadi IDR16,745 karena asumsi WACC yang lebih rendah.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 6,598.9 0.7 -0.8 21.7
MSCI Indonesia 28.8 -1.4 -4.5 18.8
MSCI EM 1,212.3 -0.7 -4.1 29.9
HANG SENG 31,268.7 -0.7 -4.2 32.7
KOSPI 2,457.7 -0.1 -4.2 17.5
FTSE 7,282.5 -0.1 -3.2 0.4
DJIA 25,410.0 -1.2 -1.7 23.5
NASDAQ 7,330.4 -1.2 0.1 27.4
Valuation
2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 16.9 2.6 17.6
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.25 0 0 -100
3yr 5.98 0 42 -124
10yr 6.47 -4 25 -106
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,679.00 0.1 2.2 2.4
USD/KRW 1,073.35 -0.5 0.7 -5.3
USD/JPY 107.33 0.4 -1.7 -4.8
USD/CNY 6.32 -0.3 -0.4 -8.1
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 63.0 -1.4 -2.7 20.2
Gold 1,318.4 -1.1 -2.0 5.6
Coal 104.3 -0.3 -2.1 24.9
Palm Oil 2,556.0 0.0 3.0 -12.5
Rubber 132.5 2.4 3.1 -34.3
Nickel 13,845.0 -0.6 1.4 25.4
Copper 7,021.0 -1.3 -0.9 18.3
Tin 21,725.0 0.6 0.0 14.0
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
800 950 1,100 1,250
5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000
01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 01/18
JCI MSCI EM (pt)
(pt)
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
1.41
1.46
1.34
1.50
1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60
1M15 1M16 1M17 1M18
(mn tonnes)
Jan 2018: +11.4% YoY; +0.1% MoM
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 3
Local flashes
ANTM: Antam menjual emas batangan ke Jepang. PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) alias Antam melebarkan sayap bisnis hingga ke Jepang. Emiten pelat merah ini meneken kerja sama perdagangan emas dengan perusaaan asal Jepang, MKK Co.Ltd.
pada Selasa (27/2). Segera setelah kerjasama terjalin, Antam bisa langsung menjual emas jenis batangan 1 kilogram (kg) ke Jepang. Direktur Utama ANTM Arie Prabowo Ariotedjo mengatakan, kerja sama jual beli ini akan memperkuat profil perusahaan sebagai produsen emas terkemuka di Indonesia.(Kontan)
BRMS: BRMS mencari kreditur untuk danai proyek tambang di Poboya. PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) bakal mengembangkan proyek proyek pertambangan emas Poboya di Palu, Sulawesi Tengah. Kini, perusahaan tengah mencari investor yang bersedia membantu pendanaan proyek dengan nilai investasi US$ 150 juta itu. "Skema pendanaannya nanti akan mirip seperti project financing," ujar Direktur sekaligus Investor Relations BRMS Herwin Hidayat kepada KONTAN, Selasa (27/2). (Kontan)
UNTR: United Tractors bidik kinerja naik 10% pada 2018. PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) membidik peningkatan laba bersih dan pendapatan tahun ini sebesar 10%.
Kenaikan kinerja sebagian besar akan disokong oleh kinerja penjualan alat-alat berat.
Gideon Hasan, Direktur Utama UNTR menyatakan, tahun ini, UNTR membidik penjualan alat berat sebanyak 4.200 unit. Jumlah tersebut dipatok naik lebih dari 10%
dibandingkan realisasi penjualan alat berat tahun lalu. Pada 2017, penjualan alat berat Komatsu meningkat 74% menjadi 3.788 unit. Pendapatan dari suku cadang dan jasa pemeliharaan juga meningkat. (Kontan)
ASII: Astra International berencana bagikan dividen final IDR 122 per saham. PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) membukukan laba bersih tahun 2017 sebesar IDR 18,88 triliun. Pencapaian tersebut, naik 24,58% dibandingkan laba bersih tahun 2016 sebesar IDR 15,16 triliun. Pada 2017, ASII mencatatkan pendapatan IDR 206,06 triliun, tumbuh 13,79% dibandingkan pendapatan tahun 2016 sebesar IDR 181,08 triliun.
Seiring dengan kenaikan pendapatan, ASII juga mencatatkan peningkatan beban pokok pendapatan menjadi IDR 163,69 triliundari sebelumnya IDR 144,65 triliun. Sehingga, laba bruto pada tahun lalu senilai IDR 42,37 triliun. Dengan perolehan laba tersebut, ASII berencana membagikan dividen final sebesar IDR 122 per saham. Rencana tersebut akan diusulkan dalam rapat umum pemegang saham tahunan (RUPST) pada April 2018. Besaran dividen tersebut lebih besar dibandingkan dividen tahun 2016 senilai IDR 113 per saham. (Kontan)
MCAS: M Cash gunakan sisa dana IPO untuk belanja modal 2018. PT M Cash Integrasi Tbk (MCAS) menganggarkan belanja modal sebesar IDR 90 miliar pada tahun ini.
Belanja modal itu terutama akan digunakan untuk modal kerja perusahaan sepanjang tahun ini. Belanja modal MCAS tahun ini lebih besar dibandingkan dengan anggaran tahun lalu yang berkisar IDR 20 miliar hingga IDR 30 miliar. "Pendaaan capex berasal dari kas internal dan IPO, karena dana IPO kami masih ada 30%," kata Martin Suharlie, Presiden Direktur MCAS, Selasa (27/2). (Kontan)
BMTR: Anak usaha Global Mediacom bentuk joint venture di Malaysia. PT Sky Vision Networks (SVN), anak usaha PT Global Mediacom Tbk (BMTR), membentuk usaha patungan di Malaysia pada 23 Februari 2018. "Nilai transaksinya adalah RM 1,63 juta,"
kata Oerianto Guyandi, Direktur BMTR dalam keterbukaan informasi di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Selasa (27/2). Sumber dana transaksi tersebut diperoleh dari kas internal perusahaan. (Kontan)
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 4
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation
IHSG akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend yang relatif valid yang dimulai sejak 72 hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.8936 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.62 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 10.64% atau sekitar 7 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar antara +0.44% / - 0.42 % atau +29.04 point / -27.72 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 6,598.9 (+0.68%) Trading range 6,559 - 6,616
Average index performance (%) 3.49 Target
Period 72 - Daily 6,616
r-squared 0.8936 - Weekly 6,662
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.44 / -0.42 - Monthly 6,754
Volatility (+/-, point) +29.04/ -27.72 Stop loss 6,559
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 6,616.0 _____ 6,559.3
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 6,574 High: 6,599 Low: 6,563 Close: 6,599 Vol. 10,743,844,864 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,586.9
R-Squared: 0.8936 Period: 72 Std.Dev : 1.62 Volatility (+) : 0.0044 Volatility (-) : -0.0042 V-Ratio : 1.05 Chg.: 0.68%
6,837.57
6,708.04 6,708.04
6,598.93 6,591.29 6,578.51 6,558.85 6,857.23
Dec 2018 Feb
^JKSE - Volume = 10,743,844,864.00, EMA(Volume,14) = 10,991,181,824.00
10,743,844,864 10,991,181,824
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 5
Aliran dana masuk masih terlihat dan volatilitas pergerakkan indeks turun relative tertahan.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily, potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Indikator MFI optimized masih cenderung bergerak naik, koreksi pada indikator W%R optimized dan indikator Stochastic %D optimized cenderung tertahan .Pada Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba naik ke atas center line. Sementara itu pada Figure 3 pada periode weekly ,indikator MFI optimized dan stochastic %D optimized masih cenderung naik, indikator W%R optimized akan menguji support trendline. Daily resistance di 6,616 dan daily support di 6,559. Cut loss level di 6,559.
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized,W%R optimized , Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 49.47
49.4712
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -65.26
-65.2556
^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 58.54, MA = 58.08
58.5404 58.0771
^JKSE - Daily 2/27/2018 Open 6573.7, Hi 6598.93, Lo 6562.84, Close 6598.93 (0.7%) BBTop(Close,14,1.62) = 6,674.82, BBBot(Close,14,1.62) = 6,485.01, EMA(Av erage,14)
6,598.93 6,591.29
_____ 6,616.0 _____ 6,559.3
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 6,574 High: 6,599 Low: 6,563 Close: 6,599 Vol. 10,743,844,864 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,586.9
R-Squared: 0.8936 Period: 72 Std.Dev : 1.62 Volatility (+) : 0.0044 Volatility (-) : -0.0042 V-Ratio : 1.05 Chg.: 0.68%
6,598.93
Nov Dec 2018 Feb
^JKSE - Volume = 10,743,844,864.00, EMA(Volume,14) = 10,991,181,824.00
10,743,844,864 10,991,181,824
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 6
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized,W%R optimized , Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas level 6,587
Terlihat pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata kenaikkan normal selama periode analisis adalah sekitar +0.44%, sementara saat ini di +0.68%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly potensi kenaikkan normal rata-rata sekitar +1.06.%, sementara saat ini koreksi ke level -0.32% Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terbatas. Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 6,559 – 6,616 Figure 5. Weekly : 6,536 – 6,662 Figure 6. Monthly : 6,438 – 6,754
x x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 74.87
74.8676
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -15.27
-15.2679
^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 79.33, MA = 78.97
79.3322 78.9728
^JKSE - Weekly 2/27/2018 Open 6615.37, Hi 6624.02, Lo 6554.67, Close 6598.93 (-0.3%) BBTop(Av erage,13,1.82) = 6,774.86, BBBot(Av erage,13,1.82) = 6,038.15
6,598.93 6,427.59
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 6,662.2 _____ 6,536.4
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 2/27/2018 Open: 6,615 High: 6,624 Low: 6,555 Close: 6,599 Vol. 20,572,901,376 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,592.5
R-Squared: 0.9331 Period: 68 Std.Dev : 1.84 Volatility (+) : 0.0106 Volatility (-) : -0.0085 V-Ratio : 1.24 Chg.: -0.32%
6,658.81 6,598.93 6,461.56 6,264.32
Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018
^JKSE - Volume = 20,572,901,376.00, EMA(Volume,15) = 37,768,757,248.00
20,572,901,376 37,768,757,248
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 6,616.0
_____ 6,559.3
6,104.9
6,378.2
6,586.9
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 6,574 Prev . Av g. Price: 6,586.9
R-Squared: 0.8936 Period: 72 Std.Dev : 1.62 Volatility (+) : 0.0044 Volatility (-) : -0.0042 V-Ratio : 1.05 Chg.: 0.68%
6,598.93
12 19 26
^JKSE - Volume = 10,743,844,864.00
10,743,844,864
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 6,662.2
_____ 6,536.4 6,592.5
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 6,592.5 R-Squared: 0.9331 Period: 68 Std.Dev : 1.84 Volatility (+) : 0.0106 Volatility (-) : -0.0085 V-Ratio : 1.24 Chg.: -0.32%
6,598.93
Dec 2018 Feb
^JKSE - Volume = 20,572,901,376.00
20,572,901,376
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 6,754.3
_____ 6,438.2 6,573.1
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 6,573.1 R-Squared: 0.9541 Period: 30 Std.Dev : 2.00 Volatility (+) : 0.0276 Volatility (-) : -0.0205 V-Ratio : 1.34
Chg.: -0.10% 6,598.93
2017 2018
^JKSE - Volume = 189,123,313,664.00
189,123,313,664
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 7
Stocks on our focus list
Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP)- Daily, Trading Buy, Test Resistance at 490 Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.848) selama 56 hari terakhir yang bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.43 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 15.25 % (sekitar 8 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +2.03% / -1.53 % atau 9.78 rupiah / -7.37 rupiah (rata- rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis)sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 482(+3.88%) Trading range 472- 490
0Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 9.74 Target
β (beta) 0.89 - Daily 490
Corelation 0.90 - Weekly 490
Period 56 - Monthly 508
r-squared 0.848 Stop loss 460
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.03/ -1.53
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +9.78 / -7.37
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7.Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 489.1
_____ 472.0
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
WSBP.JK [ WSBP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 468 High: 488 Low: 468 Close: 482 Vol. 250,519,296 Prev . Av g. Price: 479.3
R-Squared: 0.8445 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.43 Volatility (+) : 0.0203 Volatility (-) : -0.0153 V-Ratio : 1.33
Chg.: 3.88% 482
471.495 459.028 494.24 494.311 517.127 529.452
13 20 27 Dec 11 18 27 2018 8 15 22 29 Feb 12 19 26
WSBP.JK - Volume = 250,519,296.00, EMA(Volume,15) = 180,713,328.00
250,519,296 180,713,328
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 8
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir terlihat pada indikator MFI optimized, indikator W%R optimized dan indikator Stochastic % cenderung naik.
Sementara itu harga pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized akan coba bertahan diatas center line.Daily dan weekly resistance di 490.Cut loss level di 460.
Figure 8. Daily, MFI optimized, W%R optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com WSBP.JK - MFI Smoothed = 55.62
55.6193
WSBP.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -40.70
-40.697
WSBP.JK - Stochastic %D = 45.00, MA = 44.93
45 44.9334
WSBP.JK - Daily 2/27/2018 Open 468, Hi 488, Lo 468, Close 482 (3.9%) BBTop(Close,15,1.43) = 484.13, BBBot(Close,15,1.43) = 450.27, EMA(Av erage,15) = 469.92
482 469.925
_____ 489.1 _____ 472.0 WSBP.JK [ WSBP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 468 High: 488 Low: 468 Close: 482 Vol. 250,519,296
Prev . Av g. Price: 479.3 R-Squared: 0.8445 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.43 Volatility (+) : 0.0203 Volatility (-) : -0.0153 V-Ratio : 1.33 Chg.: 3.88%
482
Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb
WSBP.JK - Volume = 250,519,296.00, EMA(Volume,15) = 180,713,328.00
250,519,296 180,713,328
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 9
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area). Pada pergerakkan daily harga saat ini di level +3.88 % , normal kenaikkan sekitar +2.03 % Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly harga di level +3.88.%, normal kenaikkan sekitar +3.22 %. Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan sementara akan terbatas. Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 472 – 490 Figure 10. Weekly : 460 – 490 Figure 11. Monthly : 426 – 508
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 489.1
_____ 472.0 479.3 WSBP.JK [ WSBP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 479.3 R-Squared: 0.8445 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.43 Volatility (+) : 0.0203 Volatility (-) : -0.0153 V-Ratio : 1.33 Chg.: 3.88%
482
12 19 26
WSBP.JK - Volume = 250,519,296.00
250,519,296
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 491.3
_____ 460.3 476 WSBP.JK [ WSBP.JK ] - Weekly - 2/27/2018 Prev . Av g. Price: 476.0 R-Squared: 0.7098 Period: 73 Std.Dev : 1.05 Volatility (+) : 0.0322 Volatility (-) : -0.0329 V-Ratio : 0.98 Chg.: 3.88%
482
Dec 2018 Feb
WSBP.JK - Volume = 333,062,912.00
333,062,912
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 508.2
_____ 425.7 469.3 WSBP.JK [ WSBP.JK ] - Monthly - 2/27/2018 Prev . Av g. Price: 469.3 Volatility (+) : 0.0829 Volatility (-) : -0.0929 V-Ratio : 0.89
482
2017 2018
WSBP.JK - Volume = 3,224,795,648.00
3,224,795,648
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 10
Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) - Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.778) selama 60 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.19 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normal sekitar 22.17 % (sekitar 13 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +53.80 / -50.38 % atau +53.80 rupiah / - 50.38 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 3,110 (-0.32%) Trading range 3,070 - 3,180 Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 7.19 Target
β (beta) 1.13 - Daily 3,180
Corelation 0.86 - Weekly 3,230
Period 60 - Monthly 3,400
r-squared 0.778 Stop loss 3,050
Volatility (+/-, %) +1.73/ -1.62
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +53.80/ -50.38
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 3,177.5
_____ 3,072.7
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
PTPP.JK [ PTPP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 3,130 High: 3,170 Low: 3,090 Close: 3,110 Vol. 7,640,300 Prev . Av g. Price: 3,123.3
R-Squared: 0.7689 Period: 60 Std.Dev : 1.19 Volatility (+) : 0.0173 Volatility (-) : -0.0162 V-Ratio : 1.07 Chg.: -0.32%
3,110 3,051.09 3,111.21 3,135.76 3,266.91 3,266.91 3,422.62 3,482.74
Nov Dec 2018 Feb
PTPP.JK - Volume = 7,640,300.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 10,311,133.00
7,640,300 10,311,133
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 11
Aliran dana masuk masih terlihat dan volatilitas harga turun sudah terbatas
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized cenderung naik. Sementara itu indikator RSI optimized sudah berada sekitar support trend line Disisi lain pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba naik dan tembus center line. Weekly resistance di 3,230 dengan catatan daily resistance 3,180 dapat ditembus. Sementara itu daily dan weekly support di 3,070 dan 3,000. Cut loss level di 3,050.
Figure 13. Daily, MFI optimized , RSI optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com PTPP.JK - MFI Smoothed = 75.75
75.7519
PTPP.JK - RSI Smoothed = 14.94
14.9399 PTPP.JK - Stochastic %D = 58.14, MA = 51.63
58.1395 51.6279
PTPP.JK - Daily 2/27/2018 Open 3130, Hi 3170, Lo 3090, Close 3110 (-0.3%) BBTop(Average,9,1.19) = 3,192.18, BBBot(Average,9,1.19) = 3,060.41, EMA(Average,15)
3,110 3,106.25
_____ 3,179.1 _____ 3,076.3 PTPP.JK [ PTPP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 3,130 High: 3,170 Low: 3,090 Close: 3,110 Vol. 7,640,300
Prev. Avg. Price: 3,123.3 R-Squared: 0.7689 Period: 60 Std.Dev: 1.19 Volatility (+) : 0.0179 Volatility (-) : -0.0150 V-Ratio : 1.19 Chg.: -0.3%
3,110
Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb
PTPP.JK - Volume = 7,640,300.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 10,311,133.00
7,640,300 10,311,133
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 12
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-ratapada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Lebih lanjut potensi koreksi normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -1.62%, saat ini di level -0.32 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -4.0. % saat ini harga di level -0,96%.
Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terlihat namun mulai tertahan . Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 3,070 – 3,180 Figure 15. Weekly : 3,000 – 3,230 Figure 16. Monthly : 2,830– 3,400 x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,177.5
_____ 3,072.7
2,860
3,123.3 PTPP.JK [ PTPP.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 3,123.3 R-Squared: 0.7689 Period: 60 Std.Dev : 1.19 Volatility (+) : 0.0173 Volatility (-) : -0.0162 V-Ratio : 1.07 Chg.: -0.32%
3,110
12 19 26
PTPP.JK - Volume = 7,640,300.00
7,640,300
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,227.7
_____ 2,998.4 3,123.3 PTPP.JK [ PTPP.JK ] - Weekly - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 3,123.3 R-Squared: 0.7795 Period: 82 Std.Dev : 1.22 Volatility (+) : 0.0334 Volatility (-) : -0.0400 V-Ratio : 0.84 Chg.: -0.96%
3,110
Dec 2018 Feb
PTPP.JK - Volume = 12,632,100.00
12,632,100
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,400.4
_____ 2,830.9 3,089.3 PTPP.JK [ PTPP.JK ] - Monthly - 2/27/2018 Prev . Av g. Price: 3,083.3 R-Squared: 0.7594 Period: 95 Std.Dev : 1.17 Volatility (+) : 0.1028 Volatility (-) : -0.0819 V-Ratio : 1.26 Chg.: -0.64%
3,110
2017 2018
PTPP.JK - Volume = 264,700,720.00
264,700,720
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 13
Waskita Karya (WSKT) – Daily , Trading Buy, Test Resistance at 2,970 Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.919 selama 57 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.75 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 8.14 % (sekitar 5 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +2.08% / - 1.72 % atau + 60.74 rupiah / -50.22 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis)sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 27, 2017) 2,920(+2.08%) Normal trading range 2,860 - 2,970 Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 14.45 Target
β (beta) 1.26 - Daily 2,970
Corelation 0.94 - Weekly 3,000
Period 57 - Monthly 3,200
r-squared 0.919 Stop loss 2,790
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.08 / -1.72
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +60.74/ -50.22
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,967.1 _____ 2,856.7
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
WSKT.JK [ WSKT.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 2,840 High: 2,970 Low: 2,830 Close: 2,920 Vol. 70,750,400 Prev . Av g. Price: 2,906.7
R-Squared: 0.9186 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.75 Volatility (+) : 0.0208 Volatility (-) : -0.0172 V-Ratio : 1.21
Chg.: 4.7% 2,920
2,907.29 2,790.85 2,928.47 3,110.35 3,110.35 3,292.23 3,429.86
20 27 Dec 11 18 27 2018 8 15 22 29 Feb 12 19 26
WSKT.JK - Volume = 70,750,400.00, EMA(Volume,15) = 42,599,200.00
70,750,400
42,599,200
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 14
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik mulai terlihat.
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic %D optimized masih cenderung naik. Pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized harga akan coba bertahan diatas center line.
Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraan daily resistance di 2,970 dan weekly resistance di 3,000. Daily support di 2,860 dan weekly support di 2,780. Cut loss level di 2,790.
Figure 18. Daily ,MFI optimized, RSI optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com WSKT.JK - MFI Smoothed = 40.17
40.1726
WSKT.JK - RSI Smoothed = 40.09
40.088
WSKT.JK - Stochastic %D = 35.42, MA = 32.08
35.4167 32.0835
WSKT.JK - Daily 2/27/2018 Open 2840, Hi 2970, Lo 2830, Close 2920 (4.7%) BBTop(Av erage,15,1.75) = 3,047.57, BBBot(Av erage,15,1.75) = 2,759.54, EMA(Av erage,15)
2,920 2,886.32
_____ 2,967.1 _____ 2,856.7 WSKT.JK [ WSKT.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open: 2,840 High: 2,970 Low: 2,830 Close: 2,920 Vol. 70,750,400
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,906.7 R-Squared: 0.9186 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.75 Volatility (+) : 0.0208 Volatility (-) : -0.0172 V-Ratio : 1.21 Chg.: 4.66%
2,920
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb
WSKT.JK - Volume = 70,750,400.00, EMA(Volume,15) = 42,599,200.00
70,750,400 42,599,200
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 15
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-ratapada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut potensi kenaikkan pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +2.08 %, saat ini di level +4.66 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +4.12 % saat ini naik ke level +2.46%. Dengan demikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 2,860 – 2,970 Figure 20. Weekly : 2,780 – 3,000 Figure 21. Monthly : 2,680 – 3,200
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya
Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis.
Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham.
r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase.
Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 2,967.1
_____ 2,856.7
2,150
2,906.7 WSKT.JK [ WSKT.JK ] - Daily - 2/27/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,906.7 R-Squared: 0.9186 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.75 Volatility (+) : 0.0208 Volatility (-) : -0.0172 V-Ratio : 1.21 Chg.: 4.66%
2,920
12 19 26
WSKT.JK - Volume = 70,750,400.00
70,750,400
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,005.7
_____ 2,782.1
2,156.7
2,886.7 WSKT.JK [ WSKT.JK ] - Weekly - 2/27/2018 Prev . Av g. Price: 2,886.7 R-Squared: 0.8143 Period: 242 Std.Dev : 1.32 Volatility (+) : 0.0412 Volatility (-) : -0.0362 V-Ratio : 1.14 Chg.: 2.46%
2,920
Dec 2018 Feb
WSKT.JK - Volume = 100,622,304.00
100,622,304
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com _____ 3,199.6
_____ 2,675.1 2,903.3 WSKT.JK [ WSKT.JK ] - Monthly - 2/27/2018 Prev . Av g. Price: 2,903.3 R-Squared: 0.8180 Period: 57 Std.Dev : 1.34 Volatility (+) : 0.1020 Volatility (-) : -0.0786 V-Ratio : 1.30 Chg.: 3.18%
2,920
2017 2018
WSKT.JK - Volume = 714,892,096.00
714,892,096
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 16
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are February 26th, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 13,100
13,200 13,300 13,400 13,500 13,600 13,700 13,800
5,400 5,600 5,800 6,000 6,200 6,400 6,600 6,800
11/28 12/26 1/23 2/20
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.7
-1.0 -0.1
22.5
1.4
-2.4
4.7
-6.4 -8
-4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
47
-77
28 14
-5
-172 -194
46
-77 7
-72
-690 -800
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn)
75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
11/28 12/26 1/23 2/20
CPO WTI Coal
(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130
11/17 12/17 01/18 02/18
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
11/17 12/17 01/18 02/18
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 17 Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 6,599 7,366,293 0.7 -1.0 -0.1 22.5 16.9 15.2 2.6 2.4 17.6 25.1
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 23,550 580,625 0.1 -2.0 3.6 52.4 25.2 22.4 4.5 3.9 19.0 18.4
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 8,425 393,167 1.5 -6.9 3.4 49.1 18.1 19.3 2.2 2.4 13.0 12.8
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 3,770 465,014 0.8 -0.8 1.9 57.7 15.3 16.7 2.7 2.8 18.5 18.2
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 9,825 183,223 0.0 -1.0 4.5 57.2 13.6 13.7 1.9 1.9 14.7 14.7
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 3,730 39,501 1.6 -1.8 1.9 74.3 18.1 16.5 1.7 1.6 9.9 10.5
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 4,750 552,511 3.7 -1.7 -3.1 22.7 42.5 38.7 15.7 14.9 37.4 39.4
Gudang Garam GGRM 79,750 153,446 0.9 -1.5 -1.6 21.1 20.5 18.2 3.6 3.2 18.0 18.3
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 9,000 104,957 0.8 1.4 3.2 8.1 27.2 25.0 5.3 4.8 20.7 20.1
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,575 66,512 0.3 -2.3 -2.3 -6.8 15.2 14.3 2.1 1.9 14.4 13.6
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,610 75,469 0.3 -0.6 -3.3 5.2 31.0 28.4 5.7 5.1 19.3 18.8
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 53,975 411,829 0.0 -0.9 -0.8 28.0 60.9 56.9 82.4 77.1 141.8 143.6
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,000 26,946 0.2 2.9 7.7 -6.4 12.6 13.3 1.4 1.5 11.4 11.4
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,375 9,381 0.0 1.9 5.0 -6.8 11.6 11.0 1.1 1.1 10.0 9.9
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,440 13,716 -1.0 0.3 -3.4 -5.6 20.0 13.8 3.5 2.9 18.2 22.2
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,010 32,171 1.0 3.1 0.7 0.7 84.6 78.1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8
Jasa Marga JSMR 5,250 38,104 -0.5 -5.0 -7.9 9.8 21.1 16.6 3.1 2.4 15.3 14.9
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,580 62,543 1.2 -1.9 -1.1 -8.8 21.0 17.1 1.4 1.3 5.6 8.4
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,725 25,942 -0.4 -4.6 -6.9 14.5 21.9 18.3 13.2 8.8 62.1 57.2
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4,020 405,216 -0.2 -1.2 0.8 4.9 17.2 15.8 4.2 3.8 25.9 24.8
Soechi Lines SOCI 274 1,934 -0.7 -4.2 -2.1 2.2 4.0 4.0 N/A N/A 11.3 10.2
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 314 8,128 -0.6 -3.1 0.0 -8.2 19.0 14.5 2.1 1.9 11.3 12.8
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 11,325 67,174 2.0 0.2 1.6 17.7 28.6 22.9 2.3 2.1 7.9 9.7
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,560 58,377 0.0 -1.1 3.2 14.8 23.0 17.3 3.7 3.2 16.4 18.7
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 22,725 83,656 9.3 5.9 4.2 50.0 40.4 33.1 3.2 3.1 8.1 9.6
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,610 18,371 0.9 0.6 10.3 -6.7 15.4 11.6 1.9 1.7 12.8 14.9
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 30,600 34,576 -2.8 2.1 1.0 73.9 6.6 10.3 1.7 2.5 27.1 25.3
Adaro Energy ADRO 2,400 76,766 0.4 -1.2 -2.0 41.6 11.0 9.7 1.6 1.5 14.7 14.7
Aneka Tambang ANTM 945 22,709 5.0 5.0 3.3 26.8 N/A 77.0 1.3 1.3 -0.5 1.7
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,470 34,479 0.9 -3.3 -7.5 36.1 N/A 25.4 1.4 1.6 -0.6 3.2
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 3,110 35,829 -4.0 -6.6 -8.5 39.1 9.2 8.8 2.7 2.2 29.2 26.9
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 36,600 136,523 0.0 -2.0 -5.9 48.5 17.8 18.0 2.9 3.2 17.2 17.2
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,025 24,138 0.0 0.8 -3.2 -5.1 21.0 19.2 3.1 2.8 15.4 15.6
Global Mediacom BMTR 605 8,590 -3.2 -6.9 -19.3 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 9,350 27,283 -5.8 -15.6 -16.0 -31.5 15.3 13.9 23.8 10.3 136.4 90.4
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,535 21,914 2.3 -1.6 0.7 -7.5 14.5 13.0 2.2 2.0 15.4 16.2
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 442 2,377 0.0 -7.1 -8.7 -63.3 N/A 117.1 1.1 1.0 -8.0 -0.4
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,860 41,818 6.3 5.9 6.3 -3.1 27.6 24.6 10.8 8.9 40.6 39.8
Siloam International Hospital SILO 8,525 13,860 0.0 -1.7 -3.4 -35.0 125.0 101.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,790 34,452 2.3 0.0 -1.6 -2.2 11.6 11.9 1.4 1.3 12.9 11.3
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,480 8,831 1.6 0.8 11.2 16.4 17.4 11.5 1.5 1.3 8.1 11.2
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 384 7,545 0.5 -1.5 -2.5 3.2 6.3 7.0 1.0 0.9 15.2 12.0
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,275 23,664 1.2 2.0 -6.3 -6.9 24.5 19.6 1.8 1.7 8.0 8.8
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 505 11,654 -1.9 0.0 -8.2 -31.3 11.3 10.4 0.6 0.6 5.6 5.5
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,110 19,282 -0.3 -2.2 -0.6 -10.6 13.4 11.3 1.7 1.5 13.0 14.0
Pakuwon Jati PWON 675 32,508 3.1 -1.5 -4.9 14.4 16.6 14.7 3.1 2.6 19.2 18.4
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,100 15,869 -0.5 -4.3 -1.8 -19.7 55.8 36.7 2.3 2.2 4.8 6.3
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,935 17,357 1.8 -1.8 -7.0 -22.6 14.2 11.7 1.3 1.2 9.9 10.8
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,920 39,636 4.7 -4.3 3.2 17.7 11.8 10.4 2.4 2.1 22.4 20.9
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 8,200 331,965 1.2 -1.2 -3.5 0.0 17.8 17.0 2.7 2.6 16.0 15.9
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 18
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,654.3 -1.2 ESSA IJ 372 5,320 10.1
Mining 2,007.0 -0.1 INTP IJ 22725 83,656 9.3
Basic-Industry 773.1 1.6 BRMS IJ 96 5,983 9.1
Miscellaneous Industry 1,370.3 1.0 TINS IJ 1175 8,751 8.3
Consumer Goods 2,825.0 1.3 PSAB IJ 214 5,662 7.0
Property & Construction 538.1 0.9 SCMA IJ 2860 41,818 6.3
Infrastructure 1,162.9 -0.3 EMTK IJ 9400 53,016 5.0
Finance 1,196.9 0.6 ANTM IJ 945 22,709 5.0
Trade 940.9 0.3 WSKT IJ 2920 39,636 4.7
Composite 6,598.9 0.7 MYRX IJ 159 13,786 4.6
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
HMSP IJ 3.7 4,750 LPPF IJ -5.8 9,350
INTP IJ 9.3 22,725 TOWR IJ -4.0 3,590
BMRI IJ 1.5 8,425 PTBA IJ -4.0 3,110
ASII IJ 1.2 8,200 MKPI IJ -4.5 30,000
BBRI IJ 0.8 3,770 SDRA IJ -18.6 700
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
4:00am CAD Annual Budget Release
4:59am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -2.8%
6:29am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -10 -9
6:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m -4.1% 2.9%
6:50am JPY Retail Sales y/y 2.3% 3.6%
7:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -37.8
7:01am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.5%
7:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.3%
8:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.2 51.3
8:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.3
12:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y -4.5% -2.1%
2:00pm CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 1.69
2:00pm EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.8 11.0
2:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% -1.2%
2:45pm EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% -0.1%
2:45pm EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6%
3:00pm CHF KOF Economic Barometer 106.2 106.9
3:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change -17K -25K
4:00pm CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 34.5
5:00pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.2% 1.3%
5:00pm EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 1.0%
5:00pm EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.69|1.5
8:30pm CAD RMPI m/m 1.8% -0.9%
8:30pm CAD IPPI m/m 0.5% -0.1%
8:30pm USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.5% 2.6%
8:30pm USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.4% 2.4%
9:45pm USD Chicago PMI 64.2 65.7
10:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
10:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.4M -1.6M
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 19 Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
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