CULTIVATE AN AIR OF UNPREDICTABILITY

_]UDGMENT

Humansarecreatures

ofhabit

^{withaninsatiabteneedto}

see

familiarity

^{in other}

people’s

^actions.

Y<mrpredictabz‘l—

it)‘ gives

^{thema sense}

qf

^{contml. Tum ike}tables: Be de-

liberately unparedictable.

^{Behaviorfilm:seems tohaveno}

consistency

^or

purpose

^will

keqb

^them

ofiibalkznce,

^and

they

^{will wear themselves out}

flying

^tn

explaiez

your

moves‘ Yhkentoanextnefine, this

straiegy

^{canintimidate} and mmrize.

I23

OBSERVANCE OFTHE LAW

In

May

^of

^1972,

^chess

champion

^Boris

Spassky anxiously

^{awaitedhisrival}

Bobby

^{Fischer in}

Reylqavik,

Iceland. Thetwomenhad been scheduledto meetforthe World

Championship

^of

^Chess,

^butFischer hadnotarrivedon timeand the matchwas onhold. Fischer had

problems

^{with thesizeof the}

prize

money,

problems

^with the way the money ^{was to} be

distributed, problems

^withthe

logistics

^of

holding

^{thematchinIceland.He}

might

^back

out atany^moment.

Spassky

^triedtobe

patient.

His Russian bossesfelt that Fischer^washu—

miliating

^{him andtold himto}walk away, but

Spassky

^wantedthis match.

He knew he could

destroy Fischer,

^and

nothing

^was

going

^to

spoil

^the

greatest

victory

^{ofhiscareer. “So itseems thatall our}work may^cometo

nothing,” Spassky

^{told a} comrade. “But what can we do? It is

Bobby’s

move. Ifhecomes, ^we

play.

^{If he doesnot come; wedonot}

play.

^Aman

whois

willing

^tocommitsuicide hasthe initiative.”

Fischer

finally

^{arrived in}

Reykjavik,

^butthe

problems,

^andthethreat

of

cancellation,

^{continued. He}disliked the hall where the matchwastobe

fought,

he criticized the

lighting,

^he

complained

^{about the noise of the}

cameras, he even hated the chairs in which he and

Spassky

^{were to sit}

Nowthe Soviet Union took theinitiativeand threatenedtowithdraw their

man.

The bluff

apparently

^{worked: After}all the weeks of

waiting,

^{the end-} less and

infuriating negotiations,

^Fischer

agreed

^to

play. Everyone

^{was re-}

lieved,

^{no one more than}

Spassky.

^{But on the}

day

^of the ofiicial

introductions,

Fischer arrived very

late,

^andonthe

day

when the “Match of the

Century”

^{was to}

begin,

^{he was late}

again.

^Thisfime, however, ^the consequences would be dire: ^Ifhe showed up ^toolatehewould forfeit the first game. What^was

going

^{on? Was he}

playing

^{somesortofmind}

game?

Orwas

Bobby

^Fischer

perhaps

^{afraidof Boris}

Spassky?

^{Itseemedtotheas-}

sembled

grand

masters, and^to

Spassky,

^{that this}youngkid from

Brooklyn

had aterrible case of the

jitters.

^{At 5:09} Fischer showed up,

exactly

^one

minutebefore thematchwastobe canceled.

The firstgame^ofachesstournament is

critical,

since it setsthetonefor the monthstocome.Itisoftenaslow and

quiet struggle,

^{with thetwo}

play-

ers

preparing

themselves for thewarand

trying

^toread each other’sstrate-

gies.

This game ^was different. Fischer made a terrible move

early

^on,

perhaps

^{theworstofhiscareer, and when}

Spassky

^{had himon}the ropes, heseemedto

give

up. ^Yet

Spassky

^knewthat Fischer ^nevergave up. Even when

facing ^checkmate,

^he

fought

^tothebitter

end, wearing

^the

opponent

down. Thistime,

though,

^{he seemed}

resigned.

^Then

suddenly

^{he brokeout}

aboldmovethat

put

^{theroominabuzz. Themoveshocked}

Spassky,

^but

he recoveredand

managed

^towinthe game. ^{Butno one} could

figure

^out

whatFischerwasup^{to.Had he}lost

deliberately?

^Orwashe rattled? Unset- tled?

Even,

^{as some}

thought,

^insane?

After his defeat in the first game, Fischer

complained

^{all the more}

loudly

^{about theroom, thecameras,and}

everything

else. He alsofailedto

show up ^{on time} for the second game. This ^time the

organizers

^{had had}

enough:

^Hewas

given

^{aforfeit. Now he was downtwo}games ^{to none, at}

position

^{from whichno one had ever comeback to win achess}

champi- onship.

^{Fischer was}

clearly unhinged.

^{Yetin thethird} game, ^as all those who witnessedit

remember,

^{he hada}ferocious lookinhis eye, ^alook that

clearly

^bothered

Spassky.

^And

despite

the hole he had

dug

^for

himself,

^he seemed

supremely

confident. He did make what

appeared

^{tobe another}

blunder,

^{ashe hadinthe first}

game—but

^his

cocky

^airmade

Spassky

^smell

a

trap.

^Yet

despite

the Russian’s

suspicions,

^{he couldnot}

figure

^outthe

trap,

and before he knewitFischer had checkmated him. Infact Fischer’sun—

orthodoxtacticshad

completely

^unnervedhis

opponent.

^Atthe end of the game, Fischer

leaped

^{upand rushedout,}

yelling

^tohisconfederates ashe smashedalistintohis

palm,

^“I’m

crushing

^himwithbrute force!”

In the next games Fischer

pulled

^{moves thatno one hadseen from}

him

before,

^{moves thatwere nothis}

style.

^Now

Spassky

^{started tomake}

blunders.After

losing

^{the sixthgame,he startedto}cry.One

grand

^master

said,

^“After

this, Spassky’s got

^to ask himselfifit’s safetogoback toRus- sia." After the

eighth

game

Spassky

decided he knewwhatwas

happening:

Bobby

^Fischerwas

hypnotizing

him. He decidednot tolookFischerinthe eye; he lost anyway.

Afterthe fourteenth game he called^astaff conference and

announced,

“An

attempt

^is

being

^madetocontrol my mind.” He wondered whether the orange

juice they

^{drank at} the chess table could have been

drugged.

Maybe

^{chemicalswere}

being

^{blownintotheair.}

Finally Spassky

^went

pub—

lic, accusing

the Fischerteamof

putting something

ⁱⁿthe chairs thatwasa1»

tering Spassky’s

mind. The KGB went on alert: Boris

Spassky

^was

embarrassing

^{the SovietUnion!}

The chairs were taken

apart

^and

X—rayed.

A chemist found

nothing

unusual in them. The

only things

anyone found

anywhere,

ⁱⁿ

^fact,

^were

twodead fliesina

lighting

^fixture.

Spassky began

^to

complain

of hallucina- tions.He triedto

keep playdng,

but his mindwas

unraveling.

^{He couldnot}

go^{on. On}

September ^2,

^he

resigned. Although

^still

relatively

young, he

neverrecovered from this defeat.

Interpretation

In

previous

gamesbetweenFischer and

Spassky,

Fischer hadnotfared well.

Spassky

^{had an} uncanny

ability

^{toread his}

opponent’s strategy

^and

useit

against

^him.

Adaptable

^and

patient,

he would build attacks that would defeatnot in seven movesbutin

seventy.

^{He defeated}Fischer every ^time

they played

^{because hesaw}much further

ahead,

and because hewasabril- liant

psychologist

^whoneverlost control. Onemaster

said,

^{“Hedoesn’t}

just

look forthe bestmove.He looks for themovethat will disturb themanhe is

playing.”

Fischer, however, finally

^understood

that

^{this was one of the}

keys

^to

Spassky’s

^{success: He}

played

^onyour

predictability,

defeated you^atyour

owngame.

Everything

^{Fischerdidforthe}

championship

^{matchwasanat-}

LAW17 125

I26

tempt

^to

put

^{the initiative on his side and to}

keep Spassl-Ly

offibalance.

Clearly

the endless

waiting

^{hadaneffecton}

Spassky’s psyche.

Most power- ful of

all, though,

^wereFischer’s deliberate blunders and his appearance of

having

^{no clear}

strategy.

^In

fact,

^{he was}

doing everything

^{he could to}

scramblehisoldpatterns,^{evenif itmeant}

losing

^thefirstmatch and forfeit-

ing

the second.

Spassky

^wasknown for his

sangfroid

^and

levelheadedness,

^butforthe firsttime inhis lifehecouldnot

figure

^outhis

opponent.

^He

slowly

^melted

down,

^{untilattheend hewastheonewho seemedinsane.}

Chess containsthe concentratedessenceoflife: First, ^{becauseto win} you havetobe

supremely patient

^and

farseeing;

^and

^second,

because the game isbuilton

patterns,

whole sequences of^movesthat have been

played

before and willbe

played again,

^with

slight alterations,

ⁱⁿany^onematch Your

opponent analyzes

^the

patterns

you^are

playing

^{andusesthemto}try

toforesee your^moves.

Allowing

^him

nothing predictable

^{tobase hisstrat-}

egy ^on

gives

you ^a

big advantage.

^Inchessasin

life,

^when

people

^cannot

figure

^outwhat you ^are

doing, they

^are

kept

^{inastate of}

terror—waiting,

uncertain,^confused,

Life

^{at courtisaserious,}

melancholy

game

of

chess, ^which

requires

^ustodraw up^our

pieces

^{andbatteries,}

form

^a

plan,

pursue it, parry^that

of

^our

adversary.

Sometimes, however, it is bettertotake risks and

play

^themost

capricious, unpredictable

^mave.

lean^(1rI.aBruyéw, ^I/545-1696

KEYS TO POWER

Nothing

^ismore

terrifying

^thanthe sudden and

unpredictable.

^Thatis

why

weare so

frightened by earthquakes

and tornadoes: We donotknowwhen

they

^willstrike. Alterone has

occurred,

^{wewaitinterrorforthe nextone.}

Toalesser

degree,

^thisisthe effect that

unpredictable

human behavior has

on us.

Animals behaveinsetpatterns,^whichis

why

^{we are abletohunt and}

kill them.

Only

^{man has the}

capacity

^to

consciously

^alterhis

behavior,

^to

improvise

^{andovercomethe}

weight

^{ofroutineand habit.Yetmostmendo}

notrealize this power.

They prefer

the comforts ofroutine,^of

giving

^{in to}

the animal nature that has them

repeating

^{the same}

compulsive

^actions

time andtime

again. They

^do this because it

requires

^no

^effort,

^{and be-}

cause

they mistakenly

believe thatif

they

^{donotunsettle}

^others, they

^will

beleft alone. Understand:Aperson of power^instillsakind of fear

by

^delib-

erately unsettling

those around him to

keep

^{the initiative on}his side. You sometimesneed to strike without

waming,

^to make others tremble when

they

^leastexpect^{it.It isa}device that the

powerful

^{have used}for centuries.

Filippo ^Maria,

^{the last of} the Visconti dukes ofMilan in fifteenth»

century Italy, consciously

^{did the}

opposite

^{of what}everyone

expected

^of

him. Forinstance,^he

might suddenly

^{showeracourtierwithattention, and}

then,

^{once the man had come to}

expect

^a

promotion

^to

higher office,

would

suddenly

^start

treating

him with the utmostdisdain.

Confused,

^the

man

might

leave the court,whenthe duke would

suddenly

recall him and start

treating

^himwell

again. Doubly ^confused,

the courtier would wonder whetherhis

assumption

that he would be

promoted

^{had become}

^obvious,

and

offensive,

^tothe

duke,

^{andwouldstarttobehaveasif heno}

longer

^ex-

pected

such honor. The duke would rebuke him forhislackofambition and would sendhimaway.

The secret of

dealing

^with

Filippo

^was

simple:

^{Do not} presume ^to know whathewants.Donot

try

^toguesswhat will

please

^him.Never

inject

your

will; just

^{surrenderto hiswill.Thenwait toseewhat}

happens.

^Amidst

theconfusion and

uncertainty

^he

created,

the duke ruled supreme, unchal-

lenged

^andatpeace.

Unpredictability

^ismostoften the tactic ofthemaster, but theunder-

dog

^{toocan useitto}

great

^{effect. If}you^find

yourself

outnumbered or cor-

nered,

^{throwin aseriesof}

unpredictable

^moves.Your enemies will beso

confused that

they

^will

pull

^backormakeatactical blunder.

In the

spring

^of

^1862, during

the American Civil

War,

^General Stonewall

Jackson

^andaforceof

^4,600

Confederatesoldiersweretorment»

ing

^the

larger

Union forces inthe Shenandoah

Valley. ^Meanwhile,

^notfar

away, General

George

^Brinton

McClellan, heading

^{a force of}

90,000

Union

soldiers,

^was

marching

^{south from}

Washington, ^D.C.,

^to

lay siege

^to

Richmond, Virginia,

the Confederate

capital,

^{As the} weeks of the cam-

paign

^went

by, Jackson repeatedly

led his soldiersoutof the Shenandoah

Valley,

^{thenbacktoit.}

His movements made no sense. ^{Was he}

preparing

^to

help

^defend

Richmond? Washe

marching

^on

Washington,

^{now that}McClellan’s ab-

sence had leftit

unprotected?

^{Was be}

heading

^{north to} wreak havoc up there?

Why

^{washis smallforce}

moving

^incircles?

Jacksorfs inexplicable

^moves made the Union

generals delay

^the

marchonRichmond^as

they

^waitedto

figure

^{outwhat hewas}up^to.Mean-

while,

^{the South wasable to}pour reinforcements ^{into thetown. A} battle that couldhavecrushedthe

Confederacy

turned intoastalemate.

Jackson

used this tactic time and

again

^when

facing numerically superior

^forces.

“Always mystify, ^mislead,

^and

surprise

^the enemy, ^if

possible,”

^he

^said,

“. ^. . suchtacticswillwin every^timeandasmall armymay thus

destroy

^a

large

^ones”

Thislaw

applies

^not

only

^towarbutto

everyday

situations.

People

^are

always trying

^toread the motivesbehind_youractionsandtouseyour pre«

dictability ^against

^{you.Throwinat}

completely inexplicable

^moveandyou

put

^themonthedefensive. Because

they

^{donotunderstand}you,

they

^are

unnerved,

^{and in}such^astateyou^can

easily

intimidate them.

PabloPicasso once

remarked,

^“Thebestcalculation isthe absence of calculation. Once you haveattained ^acertainlevel of

recognition,

^others

generally figure

that when you do

something,

^it’sforan

intelligent

^reason.

Soit’s

really

^foolishto

plot

^outyour^movementstoo

carefully

^inadvance.

You’rebetteroff

acting capriciously.”

For^a

while,

^Picassoworked with theaitdealerPaul

Rosenberg.

^Atfirst

LAW 17 127

128 LAW 17

heallowed himafairamountoflatitudein

handling

^his

paintings,

^thenone

day,

^forno

apparent

^{reason,hetoldthemanhewouldno}

longer give

^him

any work^tosell. As Picasso

explained, “Rosenberg

^would

spend

^thenext

forty-eight

^hours

trying

^to

figure

^out

why.

^{Was I}

reserving things

^forsome

other dealer? I’d go^on

working

^and

sleeping

^and

Rosenberg

^would

spend

histime

figuring.

^Intwo

days

^he’dcome

^back,

^nerves

jangled,

^anxious,say»

ing,

^‘After

all,

^dear

friend,

you wouldn’t^turnmedown if I offered you this much

[naming

^a

substantially higher figure]

^forthose

paintings

rather than the

price

^{Pve beenaccustomedto}

paying

you, would

you?’

^”

Unpredictability

^isnot

only

^aweapon of^terror:

Scrambling

your

pat-

ternson a

day-to-day

^{basis willcause astiraround}youand stimulateintet—

est.

People

will talk about you, ascribe^motivesand

explanations

^{that have}

nothing

^{todo withthe}

^truth,

^butthat

keep

you

constantly

ⁱⁿtheir minds. In the

end,

^themore

capricious

you appear, the^more

respect

youwill garner.

Only

^the

terminally

subordinateactina

predictable

^manner.

Image:

^The

Cyclone.

^A

windthatcannotbe fore-

seen. Sudden shifts in the

barometer,

^in—

explicable changes

in direction and

velocity.

^Thereis

no defense: A

cyclone

^sows

terror and confusion.

Authority:

^The

enlightened

^rulerisso

mysterious

^{that heseems}

to dwell

nowhere,

^so

inexplicable

^{thatno one can seek him.}

He repose-s in nonaction

above,

^{and his ministers tremble} below.

(Han-fei-tzu,

^Chinese

philosopher,

^third

century B.C.)

REVERSAL

Sometimes

predictability

^{canworkin yourfavor:}

By creating

^a

pattern

^for

people

^to be familiar and comfortable

with,

you ^can lull themto

sleep.

They

^have

prepared everything according

^totheir

preconceived

^notions

about you. You^canusethisinseveral ways:

First,

^itsetsup^asmokescreen,

acomfortablefront behindwhich you^cancarry^on

deceptive

^actions.Sec

ond,

^it _{allows you} ^{on rare occasions todo}

something completely against

thepattern,

unsettling

your

opponent

^so

deeply

he will falltothe

ground

without

being pushed.

In 1974 MuhammadAliand

George

^{Foremanwerescheduledto}

fight

for the world

heavyweight boxing championship. Everyone

^{knew what}

would

happen: Big George

^Foremanwould

^try

^{to landaknockout}

punch

whileAli would dancearound

him, wearing

^{himout.Thatwas}Ali’s way^of

fighting,

^his

pattern,

^{and hehadnot}

changed

^{it inmorethanten}years. But inthiscaseitseemed^to

give

Foreman the

advantage:

^{He hada}

devastating punch,

^andifhe

^waited,

^{sooner orlaterAliwould have to come to him.}

Ali,^themaster

strategist,

^{had other}

plans:

^Inpress conferences before the

big fight,

^{he said he was}

going

^to

change

^his

style

^and

punch

^{it out with}

Foreman. No _one, least of all

Foreman,

believed this for^a second. That

plan

would be suicideonAli’s

part;

^hewas

playing

^the

^comedian,

^asusual.

Then,

^{before the}

fight,

Ali’s trainerloosened the ropes around the

ring, something

^{atrainerwoulddoifhis boxerwere}

intending

^to

slug

^{it out. But}

noonebelievedthis

play;

^ithadtobeasetup.

To

everyone’s

amazement, Ali did

exactly

what he had said he would do.AsForeman waited forhimtodance

around,

^Aliwent

right

up^tohim and

slugged

^{itout. He}

completely ^upset

^his

opponent’s strategy.

^Ata

loss,

Foremanended_up

wearing

himself out, ^not

by chasing

^{Ali but}

by

^throw-

ing punches wildly,

^and

taking

^{more and more}

counterpunches. Finally,

Ali landed^adramatic

right

^crossthat knockedoutForeman. The habit of

assuming

^thata

person’s

^{behaviorwill fitits}

previous patterns

^{is so}strong thatnotevenAli’sannouncementofa

strategy change

^was

enough

^to

upset

it.Foremanwalkedintoa

trap-«the trap

^{he hadbeen toldto}

expect.

A

warning: Unpredictability

^{can work}

against

you sometimes, ^es

pecially

if you^{arein a}subordinate

position.

^{Therearetimeswhenitisbet}

ter to let

people

feel comfortable and settled around you than ^todisturb thern.Too much

unpredictability

^{will beseen as a}

sign

^of

indecisiveness,

^or

even ofsome more serious

psychic problem.

^{Rattems are}

powerful,

^and

you ^can

terrify people by disrupting

them. Such power should

only

^be

used

judiciously.

LAW I7 129

130

18

DO NOT BUILD FORTRESSES

TO PROTECT YOURSELF-